Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

Take a look at the volume of buys vs sells, this looks like big money trying to pick up cheap coins.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2?op=1

Excellent read. Thank you.

[1715137108]

1715137108

[1715137108]

1715137108

[fonzie]

I see a chance that it drops to 250-350$ for a few days or weeks, after that it might stabilize around 400-500$ for a few months.
Long term predictions are hard to make with BTC, depends on the enviroment, but i don´t believe that we´re goin to new ATH any time soon(if it ever should happen).
After i have closed my shorts, i might buy 20-30 if the price seems solid and just hold for a year. But it isn´t urgent to me to have a position in BTC for the next time.

ok may I ask your reasons? $250 -$250 why there ? why not $150 $200, an then why $400 and $500 ? and why will it stabalize there what will have changed?
so you do not have a long term view of where Bitcoin is going? do you think it can survive if it does not continue to grow ? I mean do you think this is a binary outcome as I do ? so surely if you think it is not going anywhere then you must think it is going to zero within say 5 years... do you?  what negative fundamentals do you see in this current market, that will stil be a probelm in say 12 months? Why do you not think we will not hit an all time high? and by soon?   and also what do you see happening to the adoption rates and network effect that is playing out? not to mention the  momentum being built up by investors and entrepreneurs and their hard cash, and what of the growing public awareness and growing eco system, what makes you think the network effect will stop? what makes you think adoption will slow?  do you think the tech will break? or it will get banned? or do you think that people will just get bored of it? what do you think?

I guess I just want to be close to you Fonz, to know the man behind the memes...and the fud.

I am going to sleep now, sorry. I´ll write you a PM in the next few days. Night

[seleme]

Thank $DIETY! I've been waiting for some coin to go on sale!

Damn, I haven't seen lot of 1k activity guys here recently.

[seleme]

It´s OK to talk about 10000 but 300 is ridiculous?

No $300 not ridiculous as such, but where are you going with this is $0 your mid term target?

$300 is ridiculous. Its below the 200 daily SMA. We haven't been under that since 2011, when there was zero eco-system.

Yeah $300 was a figure he has pulled out of a hat... but I am not aruging the figure even..I just fancy a laugh and want to see where Fonzie thinks this iss going... so $300 within what
a month or two? and then where? please do explain your longterm outlook and fundamental reasons you are uber bear

Careful

Fonzie wants it to go as low as he has his buy orders set. He sold, so he is a bear in personal greed only. He doesn't really give a shit about anything else.

He will be right back to being bullish as soon as his orders are filled. If they are not, then he will eventually sliver off into oblivion like the 1000s of other posts just like him have done over the years.

He is the guy who was screaming litecoin is dead when it was 2$. We all know what happened next 

[pjviitas]

the most fiat I can scrape together is $1000.

If I deposit into my exchange account I won't be able to buy BTC for 3 days.

If I hold it and BTC goes stupid low within the next 3 days, I can zoom into Vancouver and use the ATM

Decisions, Decisions.

[empowering]

Bitstamp

Upside breakout scenario.

Bitstamp

Starting point was $820/5 February 01, 2014 at around 02:55:31 PM

I have laid out my upside possible resistance/pivots/supports from my original post for easier viewing.

If we break out from now or over the next few weeks or at least the next month
then from   $820-$825   I see the following possible resistance/pivots/supports.
 


$840-$858
$858-$880
$880-900 ($900 psychological for USD)
$900-$910/5 (could be a psychological resistance level as also $908/10 = CNY5500)
$910-$928
$928-$945
$945-$970
$991 - (could be a psychological resistance level as also $990/1 ish = CNY6000)
$Onwards past $1000 and retacements end at $1176 not really looked
$Cape Canaveral

Downside scenario from this current $820 - $825 channel I can see the possible supports/pivots/resistance

$825 (this price could also be a psychological support because $825= CNY4999.99)
$817 - We dipped down to here for quite some time a good few hours February 01, 2014, 09:32:01 PM now hovering on or around $817 within plus or minus $2ish- or CNY 50 short of CNY5000 $817 first acting as support then switching to resistance - within $2-3 but $817 is quite a specific number we have been pivoting on off for quite a few hours… not $833 or $823 or  $807 - but quite strongly pivoting around $817 (+- $2-3ish) ….quite interesting to see what happens…. next….,  if there is consolidation at this level then there should be a movement one way or other…  
$800 psychological
$800 - $775 ish
$775- $757 ish
$757- $749 ($740 = CNY4500)
$725? (edit)
$710/11 (edit added 03/02/2014)
$700 psychological
$682 (edit added 03/02/2014)
$642 (edit added 03/02/2014)
$604 (edit added 06/02/2014)
$550 (edit added 06/02/2014)
$519 (edit added 06/02/2014)
ssshhh
 
Update February 02, 2014, 05:18:05 AM (?)
$817 Still bouncing along this resistance line

Update: February 03, 2014, 13:51
1st RS $825
Pivot   $817
1st SP $800

In past 48 hours we have touched the support at bottom of 1st channel at $800  (actual low in past 48 hours  =$800.05)
Bounced either side of $817 for a fair 24 hours, and before dipping down to test $800 SP)
and on the upside we touched 1st resistance level above pivot at $825 (actual high in past 48hrs = $825.21)

Looks like we may get possible retest of $800 and pos lower soon, though I still think we are going up

Update: February 04, 2014, 11:58:37 PM

nxt $858
nxt $840

1st RS $825
Pivot   $817
1st SP $800 Been trading in-between $817 and $800 , with a tiny flashes a little lower on the test of $800 nothing to write home about, currently testing $800 again
nxt $775 ish
nxt $757 ish


As a side note- things are pretty stable at the present second, barring a catastrophic break of $800 I am wondering if we may trade sideways for a few more days/while longer.  Still waiting for a breakout of this sideways channel but starting to think that if we do not see movement soon, or at the very least in the week after the end of the Chinese hol's then I would not be surprised barring any oh noes newses if we trade sideways in slightly larger channel until mid may ish before pushing up up...


In this ever changing world in which we live in - just a my 2 satoshi worth , live and let live.

Update February 06, 2014, 02:13:45 AM

nxt $825

1st RS $817  (actual high in last 48hrs ish $814 ish)
Pivot- Psych SP/RS level - $800 Psychological support level turned pivot
1st SP  $775 ish (actual low in last 48 hours ish $775 : )

nxt $757 ish

So we spent almost 24 hours bouncing along $800 give or take a few dollars each side for quite some time testing and retesting, before bouncing on its underside for a short while and then came a sell off slightly lower dip down to $784.83  it was not a catastrophic break of $800 this time around at least, and we did not quite sell off all the way down to the next potential support level I indicated of $775 (ish) before bouncing straight back up to $800 level again to bounce along its underside for an hour or so before another sell off selling right down to next support level going down to $775 on the nose before a bounce up to midway point to $800 and back down to $775 again, as I write this we have bounced back up to almost $800 ... $797.5 lets see what is next..if we bounce off $800 and down more or if we can break back up through, $800 is a psyc level, which in this "game scenario" I posit has weight but not as much weight at Fib levels , not unless they intersect.

...at this point I would not be surprised to see a retest of both $813/817 and a retest of $775(ish) in next 48 hours, making $800 the current pivot with $817 1st RS level and $770-$775/8ish being 1 SP level.  Be interesting to see if we do

I still think we are still biding time for upwards push same time frame as before ie within now to end of 1st week after Chinese New year or if not I can imagine slightly wider sideways channel until mid may with some bouncing around… and then up up up.

That being said, as I have been writing this Gox seems to be having a dither… and waking up , so this scenario is barring of course major newses or catastrophes in the market..eitherway
looks like things may stir from this channel a little more... one can hope... this is FUN

Quite interested to note that of points I noted from my starting point $825
$817
$800
$775
Have all had a good visit, and indeed in this instance have made good buy and sell signals to trade from

Mini update February 06, 2014, 10:55:53 AM
$757(ish) been paid a visits too ($752 actual low so far past 24 hrs)

Notes mainly the same as yesterday- nothing changed tbh....will update again in 12-36 hours.

Happy days... so glad I had a sleep... methinks there will be more fun to be had today.

Looks like I may need a new graph soon...

February 07, 2014, 04:02:20 AM - Update

Quick one -  past 48 hours

So crashed down through the supports after the couple of mini bounces off $775,  then had a bounce or two off of $756/7  which was nice, it did not stay for long though, then fell through that support and bounced just over $725 support at $727.50   - just as well I added more lower supports beyond $725 a few days ago (above)

So far not had a bounce up far enough to see if we get a pivot and a bounce back up through the resistance levels ... not thinking we will see $725 play a role as level for very long...
so if we break it then I have already laid out next sticky point downards..   despite that I would not be surprised to see a reversal here $730- $757/63 at all either, that is what the chart is telling me ....or at least one part of it    

Of course any potential meltdown of Gox etc then the charts are toilet paper...  still though... those levels been working out jus fine so far.

[OldGeek]

Bridge to Damage Control:  We are seeing a life support leak in the Bitcoin locker.  Assign a patch crew ASAP.  We cannot let this go below 700 or we risk an abandon ship.  This is no drill.  Repeat, this is no drill!

[OldGeek]

^^  Not really jumpy.  Just reading my mining income book.  Looks decent at 700.  Not so good at much below that.

[empowering]

^^  Not really jumpy.  Just reading my mining income book.  Looks decent at 700.  Not so good at much below that.

Well that is a different kettle of fishes all together!

[shmadz]

the most fiat I can scrape together is $1000.

If I deposit into my exchange account I won't be able to buy BTC for 3 days.

If I hold it and BTC goes stupid low within the next 3 days, I can zoom into Vancouver and use the ATM

Decisions, Decisions.

I heard it's like a 7% fee on that machine... you might want to contact the Kelowna branch and just transact in person. I'm sure if you contact them before hand you should be able to negotiate a better deal.

Or fly to Calgary.

Or Toronto. <- easterners are always slow on the pickup (*purely Albertan bias coming through*)

Not sure where you live, but there are other options...

*edit* not sure how I missed the whole $1000 limit thing. I would recommend stalking local bitcoins for a while. people will always be willing to let bitcoins go cheap for one reason or another, just gotta be in the right place at the right time. Just wait for it, it will come.

[OldGeek]

Well that is a different kettle of fishes all together!

I'm in fairly decent shape other than the mining enterprise.  I'm fairly certain (P= 0.99) that my initial buy-in is safe at 122.  My trading account is full fiat atm.  But I haven't had the funds to keep up my percentage of the mining spectrum.  I have more equipment on order, but you know, 'delays' and the difficulty is what's really going to the moon.

[Richy_T]

Loading the fiat cannons. Don't expect I'll get to fire though.

Still holding the BTC I have though. People keep giving me dollars but no one is giving me bitcoins.

[OldGeek]

Loading the fiat cannons. Don't expect I'll get to fire though.

Still holding the BTC I have though. People keep giving me dollars but no one is giving me bitcoins.

I know what you mean.  I have three limit orders placed, but don't really expect them to fill.

[MANofthePEOPLE]

Let the dump recommence!

[shmadz]

Well that is a different kettle of fishes all together!

I'm in fairly decent shape other than the mining enterprise.  I'm fairly certain (P= 0.99) that my initial buy-in is safe at 122.  My trading account is full fiat atm.  But I haven't had the funds to keep up my percentage of the mining spectrum.  I have more equipment on order, but you know, 'delays' and the difficulty is what's really going to the moon.

I'm also mining, also equipment on order (pre-order actually.. KnC and CoinTerra)

I'm curious as to which mining equipment purchase put you under water on your mining operation?

Even the most expensive miner I have ever purchased - a Jupiter for 70 bitcoins, I walk past it every day as a reminder of my "$70,000" mistake, even though it's getting close to breaking even -  even that was not such a bad deal to turn me off of bitcoin mining...

I'm just curious to hear what might have been the straw to break the back of your mining operation, in the hopes that I can avoid a similar fate. Also curious as to what equipment you have on order.

thanks

[scorp1618]

 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/w6REiDKw/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

I very much hope your projection is proven true. I did quite well with my sub-500 bids last time, I would be overly excited if I would get a second chance at those prices.

to add a little humour... http://youtu.be/SpLtvi-_vjQ?t=8m59s

[OldGeek]

I'm curious as to which mining equipment purchase put you under water on your mining operation?

Even the most expensive miner I have ever purchased - a Jupiter for 70 bitcoins, I walk past it every day as a reminder of my "$70,000" mistake, even though it's getting close to breaking even -  even that was not such a bad deal to turn me off of bitcoin mining...

I'm just curious to hear what might have been the straw to break the back of your mining operation, in the hopes that I can avoid a similar fate. Also curious as to what equipment you have on order.

thanks

Not so much underwater as close to wondering if things will work out.  I bought Asic usb sticks.  Total for 15 units = $260.91 for 6.14 ghs or 42.43 per gig.

On order = CoinCraft A1 ASIC.  'They' say it should be shipping any day now.  A benefit, they say, is an increase in hashing power to make up for being two months late.   

The straw that is getting hard to carry is the increase in difficulty coupled with the massive increase in equipment that has gone live.  The difficulty is the same for all of us, but the deep pockets guys are hitting the streets running.

Right now, the variance at my selected pool is, to use a vulgar expression, the shits.

[pdawg]

So Russia bans BTC...http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-russia-use-ban-942/.  Well if you are into catching falling knives, normally I would say this would be one area to give it a try. Trend line and fib support here, with more fib support just below. However, since there are a lot of BTC in Russia, there will probably be more selling pressure, so I think the trend line will be broken and the major support zone will be tested. I am a buyer there, but until then I expect the bears to be in control......