Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[creekbore]

Like for one they are still fully staffed and not letting people go left and right

As if no one has ever turned up for work one day and found the doors chained shut.

There is no reasonable explanation for what people are experiencing from Gox on the BTC side of thing (Fiat problems are a totally different issue) that should have lasted for more than 20-60 minutes, tops. Of course, people should have been getting off of there months ago but this is *BAD*.

Bitcoin will prevail but we're up for an interesting few days ahead.

I can believe USD problems.  I can believe SEPA problems.

In isolation from the above, I can believe bitcoin client problems.

I am deeply troubled by JPY domestic withdrawal issues.  

Put all 4 factors together at the same time and it is the exact behaviour of a company that is trading while insolvent.  Especially since this pressure has been building for such a long time.  

I think (for one reason or another) that they have probably been technically insolvent since June when they stopped the USD wires.  That bought them some time.

It is only now that they have finally had a run on the bitcoin bank and exhausted their ability to string everyone along and the music has stopped.  Everyone in the room caught without a chair is SOL.

We will see. Gox has been claimed to be dead many times before. They make so much from fees, Karpales would have to drink about 40000 frappachinos a day to burn through that much money.

Yeah, and office space in Tokyo is so cheap

[creekbore]

If you guys at all care to read anything factual on the matters of MtGox's Bitcoin problem, try this writeup (by gmaxwell I believe, who is a core dev) http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/cf99yac

I think people who think MtGox is insolvent are wrong. I'd like to see what they have done not only with their currency profits (far in excess of any losses incurred by DHS/Coinlab) as well as Bitcoin profits which are likely to be in the 6 digits.

Here is something out of MtGox's last "transparency report", even if it was a long time ago:

I take it you've seen this:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x9gue/my_protest_at_mtgox_offices_5_to_7th_february/

[damnek]

Like for one they are still fully staffed and not letting people go left and right

As if no one has ever turned up for work one day and found the doors chained shut.

There is no reasonable explanation for what people are experiencing from Gox on the BTC side of thing (Fiat problems are a totally different issue) that should have lasted for more than 20-60 minutes, tops. Of course, people should have been getting off of there months ago but this is *BAD*.

Bitcoin will prevail but we're up for an interesting few days ahead.

I can believe USD problems.  I can believe SEPA problems.

In isolation from the above, I can believe bitcoin client problems.

I am deeply troubled by JPY domestic withdrawal issues.  

Put all 4 factors together at the same time and it is the exact behaviour of a company that is trading while insolvent.  Especially since this pressure has been building for such a long time.  

I think (for one reason or another) that they have probably been technically insolvent since June when they stopped the USD wires.  That bought them some time.

It is only now that they have finally had a run on the bitcoin bank and exhausted their ability to string everyone along and the music has stopped.  Everyone in the room caught without a chair is SOL.

We will see. Gox has been claimed to be dead many times before. They make so much from fees, Karpales would have to drink about 40000 frappachinos a day to burn through that much money.

A lot of the volume at Gox could be generated by themselves.. in which case the amount of money they collect from fees could be a lot lower.
Another thing that rang suspicious to me is that mr. Karpeles mentioned somewhere (sorry, lost the source) that they had some fiat deposits into their bank account which they had credited into their user accounts, but were charged back by the user, and of course lost btc that way.

[seriouscoin]

If anyone is still interested in mining BTC check out my CoinTerra auction thread.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=454882.0  

I would if I could afford it  
Why don't you mine with them? It looks like you can get a better return that way right now  

I guess to sale them with 100%++ profit is the better way then mining.

break even at current difficulty is 59 days if you pay $11000

Thats your fail right there.... go bury your head from the embarrassment of failing grade 5 math.
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[surfer43]

If anyone is still interested in mining BTC check out my CoinTerra auction thread.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=454882.0  

I would if I could afford it  
Why don't you mine with them? It looks like you can get a better return that way right now  

I guess to sale them with 100%++ profit is the better way then mining.

break even at current difficulty is 59 days if you pay $11000

Thats your fail right there.... go bury your head from the embarrassment of failing grade 5 math.
 

wtf?  

[seriouscoin]

Like for one they are still fully staffed and not letting people go left and right

As if no one has ever turned up for work one day and found the doors chained shut.

There is no reasonable explanation for what people are experiencing from Gox on the BTC side of thing (Fiat problems are a totally different issue) that should have lasted for more than 20-60 minutes, tops. Of course, people should have been getting off of there months ago but this is *BAD*.

Bitcoin will prevail but we're up for an interesting few days ahead.

I can believe USD problems.  I can believe SEPA problems.

In isolation from the above, I can believe bitcoin client problems.

I am deeply troubled by JPY domestic withdrawal issues.  

Put all 4 factors together at the same time and it is the exact behaviour of a company that is trading while insolvent.  Especially since this pressure has been building for such a long time.  

I think (for one reason or another) that they have probably been technically insolvent since June when they stopped the USD wires.  That bought them some time.

It is only now that they have finally had a run on the bitcoin bank and exhausted their ability to string everyone along and the music has stopped.  Everyone in the room caught without a chair is SOL.

We will see. Gox has been claimed to be dead many times before. They make so much from fees, Karpales would have to drink about 40000 frappachinos a day to burn through that much money.

A lot of the volume at Gox could be generated by themselves.. in which case the amount of money they collect from fees could be a lot lower.
Another thing that rang suspicious to me is that mr. Karpeles mentioned somewhere (sorry, lost the source) that they had some fiat deposits into their bank account which they had credited into their user accounts, but were charged back by the user, and of course lost btc that way.

Ofcourse he can claim all kind of BS to cloud the situation and buying more time.

The "whales" on GOX are pretty much Mark's friends and associates who have been making banks thro arbitrage. (They dont have funding withdrawal issue ...)

Once GOX goes under, everything will rise up including the truth.

[creekbore]

Here is something out of MtGox's last "transparency report", even if it was a long time ago:

Perhaps from these figures we can extrapolate their current position.

3.5million Yen = 34KUSD at todays rates.

The official Japanese rate of inflation in 2013 was 1.6%

So, they would need an income of roughly USD417K to cover operational costs in 2013.

Anyone recall off hand the figure of their Fincen fine (or whatever it was)?

This sounds like the sort of thing Jorge would be good at

[seriouscoin]

If anyone is still interested in mining BTC check out my CoinTerra auction thread.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=454882.0  

I would if I could afford it  
Why don't you mine with them? It looks like you can get a better return that way right now  

I guess to sale them with 100%++ profit is the better way then mining.

break even at current difficulty is 59 days if you pay $11000

Thats your fail right there.... go bury your head from the embarrassment of failing grade 5 math.
 

wtf?  

Yeah... current difficulty .... wont be staying for more than 12 days..... do compound percentage on it and .... no its more than likely 100 days...... Thats for getting investment back.... no profiting yet. So ofcourse hes selling to suckers to pay him 100% profit.

[windjc]

If you guys at all care to read anything factual on the matters of MtGox's Bitcoin problem, try this writeup (by gmaxwell I believe, who is a core dev) http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/cf99yac

I think people who think MtGox is insolvent are wrong. I'd like to see what they have done not only with their currency profits (far in excess of any losses incurred by DHS/Coinlab) as well as Bitcoin profits which are likely to be in the 6 digits.

Here is something out of MtGox's last "transparency report", even if it was a long time ago:

I take it you've seen this:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x9gue/my_protest_at_mtgox_offices_5_to_7th_february/

Yes and if you read down a few comments in that thread you will see someone talking about how they interviewed for Gox a couple of weeks ago. Which means they are hiring. Also, he said they don't test changes on a test server, meaning they do direct into protocol. If true, however insane that would be, would go a long way to explain how a problem like this occurred.

[surfer43]

If anyone is still interested in mining BTC check out my CoinTerra auction thread.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=454882.0  

I would if I could afford it  
Why don't you mine with them? It looks like you can get a better return that way right now  

I guess to sale them with 100%++ profit is the better way then mining.

break even at current difficulty is 59 days if you pay $11000

Thats your fail right there.... go bury your head from the embarrassment of failing grade 5 math.
 

wtf?  

Yeah... current difficulty .... wont be staying for more than 12 days..... do compound percentage on it and .... no its more than likely 100 days...... Thats for getting investment back.... no profiting yet. So ofcourse hes selling to suckers to pay him 100% profit.

I know that  

[seriouscoin]

Here is something out of MtGox's last "transparency report", even if it was a long time ago:

Perhaps from these figures we can extrapolate their current position.

3.5million Yen = 34KUSD at todays rates.

The official Japanese rate of inflation in 2013 was 1.6%

Anyone recall off hand the figure of their Fincen fine (or whatever it was)?

This sounds like the sort of thing Jorge would be good at

Because of the nature of bitcoin, Mark can make MtGox net income very small. He and his associates gain alot more from trading.

[N12]

Yes and if you read down a few comments in that thread you will see someone talking about how they interviewed for Gox a couple of weeks ago. Which means they are hiring. Also, he said they don't test changes on a test server, meaning they do direct into protocol. If true, however insane that would be, would go a long way to explain how a problem like this occurred.

There is currently a profit incentive created by the fact that while MtGox withdrawals have been disabled, internal withdrawals (to internal MtGox addresses) are still functioning. Meaning people can speculate on MtGox's solvency and buy mtgoxBTC at a discount in anticipation of them fixing their problem. So, I would guess that some of the most fervent fear mongering probably is partly motivated by getting cheaper buys.

[creekbore]

If you guys at all care to read anything factual on the matters of MtGox's Bitcoin problem, try this writeup (by gmaxwell I believe, who is a core dev) http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/cf99yac

I think people who think MtGox is insolvent are wrong. I'd like to see what they have done not only with their currency profits (far in excess of any losses incurred by DHS/Coinlab) as well as Bitcoin profits which are likely to be in the 6 digits.

Here is something out of MtGox's last "transparency report", even if it was a long time ago:

I take it you've seen this:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x9gue/my_protest_at_mtgox_offices_5_to_7th_february/

Yes and if you read down a few comments in that thread you will see someone talking about how they interviewed for Gox a couple of weeks ago. Which means they are hiring. Also, he said they don't test changes on a test server, meaning they do direct into protocol. If true, however insane that would be, would go a long way to explain how a problem like this occurred.

I did read that comment and it doesn't inspire much faith in the claim: "Trade with confidence on the world's largest Bitcoin exchange!"  Just cause you are hiring doesn't mean you are not in trouble, indeed, (as the reddit poster points out) the fact this was mentioned in interview suggests a lack of self-awareness of their own bad practices.

I'm of the opinion the BTC withdrawal issue will be resolved, but there will be no-way back for Gox...volume will dwindle and it will be closed by the end of the year.  Karpeles will retire on some massive floating fit-ball in the med, and BTC will get along much better without him.

[windjc]

I will give 60% on the dollar up to 100 BTC. For every 1 Gox BTC and I will give you .6 non-Gox BTC.

Willing to use escrow.

[seriouscoin]

I will give 60% on the dollar up to 100 BTC. For every 1 Gox BTC and I will give you .6 non-Gox BTC.

Willing to use escrow.

I will beat you by 5%

65% up to 200 BTC, just PM me.

[creekbore]

I will give 60% on the dollar up to 100 BTC. For every 1 Gox BTC and I will give you .6 non-Gox BTC.

Willing to use escrow.

[windjc]

I will give 60% on the dollar up to 100 BTC. For every 1 Gox BTC and I will give you .6 non-Gox BTC.

Willing to use escrow.

I will beat you by 5%

65% up to 200 BTC, just PM me.

What? I thought you had assured us Gox was going to die? Amazing, how you are willing to lose all your bitcoin. Simply amazing.

[windjc]

I will give 60% on the dollar up to 100 BTC. For every 1 Gox BTC and I will give you .6 non-Gox BTC.

Willing to use escrow.

Sure.

[giletto]

If anyone is still interested in mining BTC check out my CoinTerra auction thread.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=454882.0  

I would if I could afford it  
Why don't you mine with them? It looks like you can get a better return that way right now  

I guess to sale them with 100%++ profit is the better way then mining.

break even at current difficulty is 59 days if you pay $11000

Thats your fail right there.... go bury your head from the embarrassment of failing grade 5 math.
 

wtf?  

Yeah... current difficulty .... wont be staying for more than 12 days..... do compound percentage on it and .... no its more than likely 100 days...... Thats for getting investment back.... no profiting yet. So ofcourse hes selling to suckers to pay him 100% profit.

I know that  

Do you? Your posts let me doubt...