Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rhyso]

I really appreciate that Gox has been dumping the shit out of Bitcoin in the last days.
But to be honest the trading processes that are going on over there look 90% made up and unnatural.

you look 90% made up and unnatural..

your mum looks made up and unnatural 

to the moon I say...

[JorgeStolfi]

Yesterday at 23:18 UTC I made the following predictions:

Tomorrow 2014-02-09 at 19:00 UTC, Huobi's price will be 4510 Yuan, plus or minus 20 Yuan.
At that same time, Bitstamp will be at 700 USD plus or minus 10 USD.

Prices on 2014-02-09, 19:00:00 to 19:00:59 UTC
Huobi: predicted 4490--4530 CNY, actual 4492.0--4494.9 CNY
Bitstamp: predicted 690--710 USD, actual 704 USD.



 

[Kramerc]

Put your money where your mouth is. 

[Richy_T]

so people can trust each other

You miss the point of bitcoin (and several other important points in your comment).

The government(s) has already screwed up the currencies they had stewardship over. We don't want to invite them to ours.

[Richy_T]

People who want to use it for anonymous can still do that by using tor and tumblers etc, as long as they stay in bitcoin.  There are some viable reasons for having anonymous transactions.  I'm just not in support of the ones that are about illicit uses.

Define 'illicit'.

In fact, don't bother. Once (if) government is in charge, it is they who will be defining it.

[JorgeStolfi]

Put your money where your mouth is.  

Is that for me?  

My mouth says that bitcoin may crash to zero without warning; and, while it is fun playing the prophet, there is no way to assign probabilities to any predictions, not even to "it will crash to zero tomorrow" or "one day it will be worth more than 1000 US$".

So my money is indeed where my mouth is -- well away from bitcoin...

[magicmexican]

Gox acting weird

[GaliX]

Gox acting weird

looks like death

[magicmexican]

more like random buying pressure, ppl bored?

[Richy_T]

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

We are at stage III

Maybe there is another stage between fighting and winning:
then they try to integrate you


I like this one too (posted by someone on this forum some time ago)

First they laugh at you, then they get mad at you, pretty soon they go silent, then they start agreeing with you, finally they say they were right all along.

Then they make a hollywood movie about you.

[Davyd05]

Jorge how do you suggest we deal with current corruption within the financial industries.

Corporations are getting the tax benefits of human beings and the safety from the laws governing people far too often now a days. Since HSBC could afford to pay the tiny fines on their AML//KYC infractions and the media conglomerates that blast the main stream news never cover these occurrences all that closely, what out there is more transparent than BTC...not including the exchanges cause that is a third party trust factor that one takes when choosing where to trade.

[JorgeStolfi]

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

So this forum needs three more buttons: "laugh at", "fight",  and "capitulate". 

[Mythul]

Stamp and BTC-e are going up actually.

[JorgeStolfi]

My price prediction formula (can you see what it is?) is starting to fail, but can't resist making another guess.

Again, for tomorrow 2014-02-10 at 19:00 UTC (not before that, not after that):

Huobi: 4450 plus or minus 25 CNY.
Bitstamp: 690 plus or minus 10 USD.

This prediction is free of charge, and worth every cent of it. 

[Richy_T]

Ok, so a "Chris Martenson crash course" view, if I can summarize it as such.  Me being a little know-it-all b*tch, I have to point out that this takes into account several other aspects of the world, besides the purely mathematical (which you already admitted).  I am not saying I disagree with you, just that "mathematical certainty" gets thrown around too quickly, when it's really the underlying model that should be the object of discussion.  

Forget money for the moment, that's just a placeholder for resource allocation and thinking in terms of the money can lead to errors that are hard to spot.

The human race and, in particular, the west has made enormous productivity gains over the period since the industrial revolution. A fair bit of that is exploitation of non-renewable resources but also a lot of technological innovation, mechanization, specialization and similar things also mostly ending in 'ion'. Arguably if everyone was productive, we could be getting along with 4 hour work weeks (per household). But out of the ashes of feudalism has arisen a new ruling class. This class has incubated a whole segment of the population that is unproductive. Rather than work to minimize this unproductive segment of the population, the ruling class has conspired to maintain it and ensure its growth for, by managing the transfer of resources from the productive class to the unproductive, the ruling class takes a large share of those resources for themselves. Since the productive and unproductive parts of society vastly outnumber the ruling class, this allows the ruling class to become very resource rich indeed.

However, there is a reckoning. For the productive segment, growth is dependent on productivity. Successful productivity allows for a larger family. Growth of this segment is self-limiting. However, for the unproductive segment, they receive their resources no matter what and often in proportion to the size of the family. So this segment is allowed to grow unchecked and becomes ever more the drain on the productive segment.

Then there are other factors. This drain on the resources of the productive has a negative effect. Declining reward means lesser effort. Fewer resources earned (in real terms) restricts the size of families which, in turn, produces fewer offspring educated in the habits of the productive. The ruling class must increase the pool of the unproductive (food stamps, unemployment) and draw harder on the resources of the productive (taxes, quantitative easing, bail-ins) in order to feed their own rapacious appetites. It becomes impossible to turn back.

Until one day, there are too many unproductive and the final straw breaks the back of the productive.

It's not if. It's when.

[Davyd05]

My price prediction formula (can you see what it is?) is starting to fail, but can't resist making another guess.

Again, for tomorrow 2014-02-10 at 19:00 UTC (not before that, not after that):

Huobi: 4450 plus or minus 25 CNY.
Bitstamp: 690 plus or minus 10 USD.

This prediction is free of charge, and worth every cent of it. 

735 usd stamp and 4540 cny Huobi
I've had a good feeling about Mondays lately lol

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge how do you suggest we deal with current corruption within the financial industries.

Why should I have an answer better than anyone else's? 

But since you ask:  I think any solution has to be through politics.  I am not a libertarian; I believe that getting rid of banks and governments is neither possible nor desirable, and instead we must fight to have good governments and tightly regulated banks with strictly limited powers.

People must fight in the streets if necessary to end the plutocracy (une dollar, one vote) that has dominated the world, and restore democracy (one man, one vote).  I still cannot believe that the people of Italy and Greece, for example, could let the banks appoint governments which put the banks' profits above the very life of their citizens.   

It will not be an easy fight.  Along the way, the people in every country must somehow get rid of corporate media, and wrestle control of the internet away from big corporations, which will always prefer and support plutocracy over democracy.

[ErisDiscordia]

The government(s) has already screwed up the currencies they had stewardship over. We don't want to invite them to ours.

I find this to be an excellent rebuttal when faced with people suggesting that regulation will somehow help Bitcoin...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dragonkiller]

Jorge how do you suggest we deal with current corruption within the financial industries.

Why should I have an answer better than anyone else's? 

But since you ask:  I think any solution has to be through politics.  I am not a libertarian; I believe that getting rid of banks and governments is neither possible nor desirable, and instead we must fight to have good governments and tightly regulated banks with strictly limited powers.

People must fight in the streets if necessary to end the plutocracy (une dollar, one vote) that has dominated the world, and restore democracy (one man, one vote).  I still cannot believe that the people of Italy and Greece, for example, could let the banks appoint governments which put the banks' profits above the very life of their citizens.   

It will not be an easy fight.  Along the way, the people in every country must somehow get rid of corporate media, and wrestle control of the internet away from big corporations, which will always prefer and support plutocracy over democracy.

We have been trying that for years; it doesn't work.

You are right; governments, banks and corporate media are not going anywhere but they will never change unless they are forced to - not by protests and demonstrations which achieve nothing but by innovation that threatens their very existence.