Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OldGeek]

Someone really do not want the price to drop below $500 at gox

And someone else won't let it get much over 510.

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[creekbore]

I noted the post a few pages back with regard to BTC wallet downloads in China, whihc have seen a sharp increase recently.

Does this suggest the Chinese market is going to be moving more of their coins off exchanges in turn reducing trading volume on Huobi etc even further?

I suppose that the case of MtGOX (and Bitstamp and BTC-e to a lesser extent) alerted many investors of the risk of leaving all of one's bitcoins stored at the exchange, and/or of using outdated versions of the wallet software.  Many probably did not even have a private wallet (unless the exchange required one to open their account).

China has more investors than other countries, it seems, so it is expected that they would make more downloads.

Thanks Jorge, a fellow pragmatist.

BTW...I noticed earlier you said "while China sleeps"...from memory China spans at least 5 time zones - there's pretty much always someone awake

Of course, I'd speculate the major BTC investment is happening on the east coast eg Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shandong etc. whic would be GST +9.

I'm just saying because the trollbox had a great comment once: "According to the trollbox China is waking up all day".

[Davyd05]

Someone really do not want the price to drop below $500 at gox

I just don't feel like trading at all knowing the problem may take some time to be solved and solutions then implemented but I know they will be solved..so I'm just rather lazy to ship more fiat to the exchange and stagger buys lower in case someone else feels like shitting the bed with fear.

If Gox comes online relatively close or before other exchanges that have halted withdrawals it may survive this recent gauntlet of failure.

[surfer43]

I really think 1 BTC should be at 10 USD because I want to buy more  .

The price went up because of speculation and the elite hodling...

If it goes back down, it will get more holders that are heavily invested. Because more people are heavily invested, it will have more support. Support is good for Bitcoin (It is the only thing that gives it value  )

Once it actually becomes mainstream it will go back up (after I have tons of it) 

[creekbore]

For those who don't know Risto has been predicting a significant fall tomorrow 14th Feb.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.0

(which on a purely emotional/intuitive level I tend to agree with)

[Mythul]

The MtGox chart is really depressing. I miss the good old days when the forum was full of train and moon pictures. 1-2 months in BTC world is like an eternity.

[Davyd05]

For those who don't know Risto has been predicting a significant fall tomorrow 14th Feb.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.0

(which on a purely emotional/intuitive level I tend to agree with)

nerds ain't got no girls to splurge on ..oh shit the escort services. GG

[F-bernanke]

Just a guess:
If the big exchanges start btc Withdrawals again, we will spike back up.

If gox allows btc withdrawals again, I would not be surprised to see goxBTC go as high as 1k in that cage, people want out.

[JorgeStolfi]

What is this bullcrap? China has been following Gox and Stamp for the last two weeks.

This myopic view that just because China has more "volume" on their no fee exchanges, that the bitcoin investment world is somehow looking at them is immature. No one is looking at China. [...]

Indeed, no one seems to be looking at them. There seems to be some strong ideological/religious/wishful-thinking barrier that prevents people from even considering the possibility that China might be relevant to the evolution of prices in other markets.

But overall, its cash in, bitcoin out. Figure out that formula and you have a pretty damn good idea of where the market is headed intermediate term.

Exactly!

For example, banks were closed in China from jan/30 to feb/05; the Chinese could not get money into or out of the exchanges, so the price at all exchanges in the world (except broken ones like MtGOX and BTC-China) stagnated for that whole week.

Then banks reopened feb/06 or feb/07, and the Chinese could take money out of their exchanges.  Coincidentally, the price at all exchanges in the world started to fall in sync.

Actually, since April last year the price of bitcoin at all exchanges in the world has been almost entirely determined by the Chinese investors.  There is no other plausible explanation for the rallies that have lifted the price from 17 US$ to 1100 US$, then crashed it and recovered it to the present value.

If one day the Chinese lose interest in bitcoin and take their money out of the market, the price will probably fall back to double digits as it was before the Chinese stepped in.

Thats why the bulls are bullish.  There is an almost infinite amount of cash that could go in, and only a finite amount of bitcoin that can go in.

Actually there is only a finite amount of money that could go in, and a practically infinite number of crypto-coins that can go in.  That is one of the many reasons why am skeptical of bitcoin's success.

[creekbore]

For those who don't know Risto has been predicting a significant fall tomorrow 14th Feb.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.0

(which on a purely emotional/intuitive level I tend to agree with)

nerds ain't got no girls to splurge on ..oh shit the escort services. GG

[isov]

The MtGox chart is really depressing. I miss the good old days when the forum was full of train and moon pictures. 1-2 months in BTC world is like an eternity.

That's what I was seeing when i got onboard, got me addicted! Sigh... maybe some day, maybe some day it's upon us again.

[versace]

The MtGox chart is really depressing. I miss the good old days when the forum was full of train and moon pictures. 1-2 months in BTC world is like an eternity.

That's what I was seeing when i got onboard, got me addicted! Sigh... maybe some day, maybe some day it's upon us again.

next week

[creekbore]

Actually there is only a finite amount of money that could go in, and a practically infinite number of crypto-coins that can go in.  That is one of the many reasons why am skeptical of bitcoin's success.

It's this dilution of the market and specialisation of coins that worries me the most.

When I first started exploring alt coins there were less than half a dozen.  Now I can't keep up: everytime I make fun of the ridiculousness of them, reality trumps me.  

[DaRude]

Just a guess:
If the big exchanges start btc Withdrawals again, we will spike back up.

If gox allows btc withdrawals again, I would not be surprised to see goxBTC go as high as 1k in that cage, people want out.

Right because people want out, and where will those BTC flow? How many of those BTC will end up with a sell market orders on stamp?

[F-bernanke]

Just a guess:
If the big exchanges start btc Withdrawals again, we will spike back up.

If gox allows btc withdrawals again, I would not be surprised to see goxBTC go as high as 1k in that cage, people want out.

Right because people want out, and where will those BTC flow? How many of those BTC will end up with a sell market orders on stamp?

I meant out of GOX, but yeah, some will want out of BTC aswel, they might have the plan to get out entirely, but they see the price rise, human greed comes into play and they decide to HODL.
This is a very unpredictable scenario.

[JorgeStolfi]

BTW...I noticed earlier you said "while China sleeps"...from memory China spans at least 5 time zones - there's pretty much always someone awake

Of course, I'd speculate the major BTC investment is happening on the east coast eg Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shandong etc. whic would be GST +9.

Well, one can see from the hourly volume charts at bitcoinwisdom that Huobi's clients start trading around 07:00 06:00 am Beijing time and stop around 02:00 01:00 am.  There is almost zero trade between 03:00 02:00 am and 06:00 05:00 am.

One can also see that they sleep trade until later on certain days and wake up somewhat later the next day.

OKCoin's volume varies in a daily cycle but does not stop completely at night. Either their clientele is more scattered, or there are unsupervised robots trading there.

But anyway it seems that the whole of China is a single time zone, even though it would normally span several times 15 degrees.  It makes economic sense to synchronize working hours over the whole country, but I do not know whether they sync their sleep hours too.

EDIT: fixed local times (UTC+08:00 not UTC+09:00)

[creekbore]

BTW...I noticed earlier you said "while China sleeps"...from memory China spans at least 5 time zones - there's pretty much always someone awake

Of course, I'd speculate the major BTC investment is happening on the east coast eg Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shandong etc. whic would be GST +9.

Well, one can see from the hourly volume charts at bitcoinwisdom that Huobi's clients start trading around 07:00 am Beijing time and stop around 02:00 am.  There is almost zero trade between 03:00 am and 06:00 am.

One can also see that they sleep trade until later on certain days and wake up somewhat later the next day.

OKCoin's volume varies in a daily cycle but does not stop completely at night. Either their clientele is more scattered, or there are unsupervised robots trading there.

But anyway it seems that the whole of China is a single time zone, even though it would normally span several times 15 degrees.  It makes economic sense to synchronize working hours over the whole country, but I do not know whether they sync their sleep hours too.

As with most things in China there's always a difference between the official version of events and the reality, especially the further away you travel from Beijing.   But your hours make sense; however, I do tend to agree with Windy that the influence of the Chinese market is waning now.

Since the big flash crash of December 18th I think BTC has become more mature in its reliance on any single national market - although obviously there is still a US-centricism that is unhealthy.

[Le Happy Merchant]

no, but it's getting a little old .... : -)  ....

Wallmanship used to mean something I tell ya...

[windjc]

What is this bullcrap? China has been following Gox and Stamp for the last two weeks.

This myopic view that just because China has more "volume" on their no fee exchanges, that the bitcoin investment world is somehow looking at them is immature. No one is looking at China. [...]

Indeed, no one seems to be looking at them. There seems to be some strong ideological/religious/wishful-thinking barrier that prevents people from even considering the possibility that China might be relevant to the evolution of prices in other markets.

But overall, its cash in, bitcoin out. Figure out that formula and you have a pretty damn good idea of where the market is headed intermediate term.

Exactly!

For example, banks were closed in China from jan/30 to feb/05; the Chinese could not get money into or out of the exchanges, so the price at all exchanges in the world (except broken ones like MtGOX and BTC-China) stagnated for that whole week.

Then banks reopened feb/06 or feb/07, and the Chinese could take money out of their exchanges.  Coincidentally, the price at all exchanges in the world started to fall in sync.

Actually, since April last year the price of bitcoin at all exchanges in the world has been almost entirely determined by the Chinese investors.  There is no other plausible explanation for the rallies that have lifted the price from 17 US$ to 1100 US$, then crashed it and recovered it to the present value.

If one day the Chinese lose interest in bitcoin and take their money out of the market, the price will probably fall back to double digits as it was before the Chinese stepped in.

Thats why the bulls are bullish.  There is an almost infinite amount of cash that could go in, and only a finite amount of bitcoin that can go in.

Actually there is only a finite amount of money that could go in, and a practically infinite number of crypto-coins that can go in.  That is one of the many reasons why am skeptical of bitcoin's success.

If the day ever comes that you spend your time learning about the bitcoin eco-system and the developments that are happening across the world and stop staring at time tables about when the Chinese sleep, you will have a lot less doubts.

Meanwhile you continue to aspouse untruths. China has not led this market since $17. Anyone who has watched the movement of the exchanges knows which exchanges led those movements and when. Again, your highly literal mind gets fixated on certain points giving them way too much weight - like volume leads.

When in fact, you have no idea which exchange actually has more fiat deposted historically in it and when that fiat actually entered. All you see is # of bitcoins traded.

[traderCJ]

If the day ever comes that you spend your time learning about the bitcoin eco-system and the developments that are happening across the world and stop staring at time tables about when the Chinese sleep, you will have a lot less doubts.

You're a believer.  You'd hold on to your coins even if they dropped to $1.  Fair enough.  Meanwhile, many of us are speculating, and doing quite well at it.  Don't let my join date fool you, I went all in awhile back and have done quite well.  The trading patterns of the Chinese (at one time) were extremely predictable and anyone with half a brain could expand their stash by dumping before they woke up to whatever bad news was awaiting them.  There is nothing wrong with being reasonably skeptical about Bitcoin and profiting from other people's mistakes.