Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Le Happy Merchant]

no, but it's getting a little old .... : -)  ....

Wallmanship used to mean something I tell ya...

[windjc]

What is this bullcrap? China has been following Gox and Stamp for the last two weeks.

This myopic view that just because China has more "volume" on their no fee exchanges, that the bitcoin investment world is somehow looking at them is immature. No one is looking at China. [...]

Indeed, no one seems to be looking at them. There seems to be some strong ideological/religious/wishful-thinking barrier that prevents people from even considering the possibility that China might be relevant to the evolution of prices in other markets.

But overall, its cash in, bitcoin out. Figure out that formula and you have a pretty damn good idea of where the market is headed intermediate term.

Exactly!

For example, banks were closed in China from jan/30 to feb/05; the Chinese could not get money into or out of the exchanges, so the price at all exchanges in the world (except broken ones like MtGOX and BTC-China) stagnated for that whole week.

Then banks reopened feb/06 or feb/07, and the Chinese could take money out of their exchanges.  Coincidentally, the price at all exchanges in the world started to fall in sync.

Actually, since April last year the price of bitcoin at all exchanges in the world has been almost entirely determined by the Chinese investors.  There is no other plausible explanation for the rallies that have lifted the price from 17 US$ to 1100 US$, then crashed it and recovered it to the present value.

If one day the Chinese lose interest in bitcoin and take their money out of the market, the price will probably fall back to double digits as it was before the Chinese stepped in.

Thats why the bulls are bullish.  There is an almost infinite amount of cash that could go in, and only a finite amount of bitcoin that can go in.

Actually there is only a finite amount of money that could go in, and a practically infinite number of crypto-coins that can go in.  That is one of the many reasons why am skeptical of bitcoin's success.

If the day ever comes that you spend your time learning about the bitcoin eco-system and the developments that are happening across the world and stop staring at time tables about when the Chinese sleep, you will have a lot less doubts.

Meanwhile you continue to aspouse untruths. China has not led this market since $17. Anyone who has watched the movement of the exchanges knows which exchanges led those movements and when. Again, your highly literal mind gets fixated on certain points giving them way too much weight - like volume leads.

When in fact, you have no idea which exchange actually has more fiat deposted historically in it and when that fiat actually entered. All you see is # of bitcoins traded.

[traderCJ]

If the day ever comes that you spend your time learning about the bitcoin eco-system and the developments that are happening across the world and stop staring at time tables about when the Chinese sleep, you will have a lot less doubts.

You're a believer.  You'd hold on to your coins even if they dropped to $1.  Fair enough.  Meanwhile, many of us are speculating, and doing quite well at it.  Don't let my join date fool you, I went all in awhile back and have done quite well.  The trading patterns of the Chinese (at one time) were extremely predictable and anyone with half a brain could expand their stash by dumping before they woke up to whatever bad news was awaiting them.  There is nothing wrong with being reasonably skeptical about Bitcoin and profiting from other people's mistakes.

[OldGeek]

Good points traderCJ.

The fact is that everyone who trades as little as one satoshi is speculating about the future price of the miners reward.

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

[majakn]

someone wants out; someone wants in

 

Buyers will win

[traderCJ]

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

I as well .. and I hate picking bottoms.

[OldGeek]

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

I as well .. and I hate picking bottoms.

I don't think I've ever hit the bottom or the top.  Close counts.

[traderCJ]

I'm long-term bullish, short-term bearish, and completely mercenary.

I as well .. and I hate picking bottoms.

I don't think I've ever hit the bottom or the top.  Close counts.

So what's your take on Gox?  Insolvent?  Fix right around the corner?

[OldGeek]

So what's your take on Gox?  Insolvent?  Fix right around the corner?

Not sure.  Too many conflicting opinions for me to make sense of.  I'm just watching that 1600 bid wall at 501 getting slowly eaten up.  If it goes away there doesn't seem to be much support which to my mind means some more down pressure.

[Frequency]

So what's your take on Gox?  Insolvent?  Fix right around the corner?

Not sure.  Too many conflicting opinions for me to make sense of.  I'm just watching that 1600 bid wall at 501 getting slowly eaten up.  If it goes away there doesn't seem to be much support which to my mind means some more down pressure.

and gone it is...

[Carra23]

I enjoyed the Btc-e crash. Only wish I would have kept money aside for 100$. Bought in at $400.

[ShroomsKit]

Just keep dumping people. Keep pooping those pants. It's absolutely the smartest thing to do.

Why stop at 500 when we can go al the way to 200? Actually why stop there!

[ShroomsKit]

I enjoyed the Btc-e crash. Only wish I would have kept money aside for 100$. Bought in at $400.

At what point do people like you stop enjoying Bitcoin going down? 300? 100? 50?

[OldGeek]

Now we go down a ways.

[seldon]

So at this point we go down, because we might go down?

[Frequency]

I enjoyed the Btc-e crash. Only wish I would have kept money aside for 100$. Bought in at $400.

At what point do people like you stop enjoying Bitcoin going down? 300? 100? 50?

here we goooo...

[RicePicker]

Is every site getting DDOSed?

BTC-E, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Bitcoinwisdom Down

[billyjoeallen]

People's understanding of the world comes from the models they use. Every model is an oversimplification, but when reality substantially diverges from what they expect to happen, they can tweak their models, reject them entirely and adopt new models, or they can blame some extraneous factor or anomaly that temporarily renders their predictions inaccurate.

I knew that there was going to be push-back from governments. I knew that there were glitches that hackers would attempt to exploit. I  knew there was going to be volatility from momentum riders and I knew there were going to be cases of human fallibility (looking at you, Mark) that would adversely effect the ecosystem. What I didn't expect was that it would all happen at once. And yet the price is still >100% over the April 2013 high.

There are people in this forum and on this thread, who are either skeptical on Bitcoin's long-term success or who are outright certain of failure. Why would they spend so much time and effort reading and posting here? Cognitive dissonance can be a powerful motivating force, responsible for ideological and religious wars for millennia. Even if they have no money riding one way or another, they are smart enough to know that everyone has skin in this game. I say this to their credit because the alternative is to believe they're just assholes who like to annoy people. Whether or not Bitcoin succeeds is a big deal. It's not just about some people making or losing money. It's about how civilization functions. Can decentralized, distributed systems out compete and out perform hierarchical systems? The outcome of this experiment will be a strong indicator one way or another.

The models most people use will not only have to be tweaked if Bitcoin succeeds. They will have to be discarded and replaced. I don't think the majority of the skeptics really want Bitcoin to fail. I think they just want to make sure we're for real and not just starry-eyed idealists riding skittles-pooping unicorns. So we should be grateful for our adversities, because they will either make us stronger or expose our errors.

oh yeah, and CCMF!

[yrtrnc]

Btce offline for me

[ShroomsKit]

What's today's reason for the sheep to panic btw?