Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

Total bid sum on Gox is approaching $10 million. Wasn't btc around $100 last time there was that much on the order book?

True, but there were a lot more coins for sale. It's not yet the case. And on Bitstamp the bid side is still impressive.

[Richy_T]

I don't want to get all doom and gloomy, because the malleability problem will eventually get fixed.  However, I'm not convinced that the market has come to terms with the "step backwards" that bitcoin usability has just taken.  

What the malleability attack showed is that it is possible [and in some cases probable] that a zero-confirm transaction will become invalid even if both customer and merchant are honest, and proper fees were paid.  This affects the usability of bitcoin at brick-and-mortar stores as I describe here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459678.msg5113081#msg5113081

Should not be relying on transaction IDs anyway. A new private and public key for the seller should be generated for each transaction and then it is trivial to see that payment has been made.

Edit: Oh, ISWYM with the change. Shouldn't be terribly hard to work out though.

[oda.krell]

I don't want to get all doom and gloomy, because the malleability problem will eventually get fixed.  However, I'm not convinced that the market has come to terms with the "step backwards" that bitcoin usability has just taken.  

What the malleability attack showed is that it is possible [and in some cases probable] that a zero-confirm transaction will become invalid even if both customer and merchant are honest, and proper fees were paid.  This affects the usability of bitcoin at brick-and-mortar stores as I describe here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459678.msg5113081#msg5113081

The "fix" that should appear shortly is more of a "work-around."  Gmaxwell estimates it will be on the order of a year before the malleability issue is properly resolved.

The "work around" prevents wallets from using unconfirmed change outputs, thereby making all zero-confirm transactions in brick-and-mortar stores more trustworthy again.  But remember, this degrades usability: there are situations where you may only have unconfirmed change outputs in your mobile wallet, and thus you would not be able to immediately pay for your coffee [see my linked post above].

There's a work-around for this work-around too, and that involves making "smarter" wallets.   These smart wallets would ensure that you have a good supply of confirmed coins at your disposal, by breaking up large coins when necessary.  

The point I'm trying to make is that the malleability issue cannot be easily or quickly fixed, and the work-arounds have consequences themselves and take us a step-backwards in usability.  This will all be resolved eventually, but in the meantime, we've presented the forum trolls with an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord of troll food.

Solid analysis. Probably wasted in our little trollbox here, though

[empowering]

Except for a few who can use bitcoin while traveling abroad, most Chinese cannot use their bitcoins as currency, and have no expectation of doing so.  So, why would they put their real money into bitcoins, and hold on to them?

Two reasons come to mind:  They want to invest in the technology, or they want to hedge against a change in government.  Governments often change.  Fiat currencies, historically, have always failed.  Just as they cannot use gold in commerce, so too they cannot use bitcoin in commerce.  Just as they buy gold as a store of value, so too they buy bitcoin as a store of value.  Both are free of counterparty risk, unlike fiat currencies.  The Chinese national appetite for gold proves that they understand this well, and act upon it, en masse, practically.

Oh and another reason I can think of... if Cryptos grow and grow, and the rest of the world adopts them, and the sky does not fall in around everyones ears, then in two years time do you think China will just sit it out? I do not, they will simply flip flop.. and change their mind...  "never" is not as long in Bitcoin time as it is in real time...  

Two things people seem to have trouble with exponential function and extrapolating into the future rather than thinking linearly.

Good chance China changes its mind, sure they will never allow at least in the near to mid term future for crypto it to replace the Yuan, big woop, so what who cares, same as all the rest of fiat..  cryptos do not have to , that is not even an argument at this stage... things do not even have to be priced and labelled in Bitcoin..but being able to use it as a payment method and convert the yuan cost to Btc and back... yeah if the rest of the world goes with Cryptos, I can imagine that the chinese will allow that sooner or later...

So the short answer is another reason a Chinese man may be happy to hodl coins = time = things change - and tey may well change in Btc's favour.. not such an insane reason to keep and hold coin.

Plus the Macau party boys wil be allllll over it..

[Adrian-x]

Adam can you kill your clone?  I know imitation is flattery but we have enough fonzies around here already.  Actually while you're at it, could you kill him too?

 you hold the power to kill comments, use the ignore button.

[MANofthePEOPLE]

After the recent flash crashes there have usually been flash upswings, not this time though. Might not be over for today. I sold a few coins so probably going up 

[Peter R]

It will be solved and stand as a success story demonstrating the  strength and resilience of programmable money.

I completely agree that we will eventually solve this problem by eliminating malleability, and then confidence in bitcoin will grow by another leap.  That being said, this is not a trivial cosmetic issue, as I initially thought:

When the network is under malleability attack, zero-confirm transactions built from unconfirmed change outputs are not reliable.

This is new information to most market participants, and it affects payment providers such as BitPay and Coinbase, especially in brick-and-mortar stores.  It will take time to solve this problem properly, and in the meantime, we may encounter additional usability problems.

[JorgeStolfi]

The point I'm trying to make is that the malleability issue cannot be easily or quickly fixed, and the work-arounds have consequences themselves and take us a step-backwards in usability.  This will all be resolved eventually, but in the meantime, we've presented the forum trolls with an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord of troll food.

OK, I'll bite:

  "Our exchange did not have the MtGOX bug, we have promptly removed it, we are suspending withdrawals briefly in order to remove it, and we are confident that we will not be affected by it once the community figures out how to fix it." 

 

[KFR]

Adam can you kill your clone?  I know imitation is flattery but we have enough fonzies around here already.  Actually while you're at it, could you kill him too?

 you hold the power to kill comments, use the ignore button.

If the ignore feature removed the wasted space from their posts and other peoples' ability to quote and reference them then that would indeed be a fine solution.  

[delphic]

Some of you guys keep using that word "manipulators"... princess-bride.jpg

Or maybe you mean stuff like the 'adamstgBit' fake accounts... those are not manipulators. Those are imbeciles

They're not manipulators, they're masturbators. 

[fonzie]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mah87]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

We should become associate.


WHERE ARE THE BULLS WHERE ARE THEY ?? CRYING ALONE IN THE DARK ??

[Peter R]

The point I'm trying to make is that the malleability issue cannot be easily or quickly fixed, and the work-arounds have consequences themselves and take us a step-backwards in usability.  This will all be resolved eventually, but in the meantime, we've presented the forum trolls with an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord of troll food.

OK, I'll bite:

  "Our exchange did not have the MtGOX bug, we have promptly removed it, we are suspending withdrawals briefly in order to remove it, and we are confident that we will not be affected by it once the community figures out how to fix it." 

 

I think that statement is true. 

Exchanges can deal with the malleability issue, even when the network is under malleability attack, by simply not creating transactions from unconfirmed change. 

The point I'm trying to make is that the "side effect" of disallowing unconfirmed change to be used in new transactions, is that there are usage cases where someone may have a positive balance but have no funds available to purchase their coffee.  The solution to this side effect is smarter wallets that dynamically maintain an arsenal of confirmed coins, but this is more work. 

[dgarcia]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

We should become associate.


WHERE ARE THE BULLS WHERE ARE THEY ?? CRYING ALONE IN THE DARK ??

Here Baby. And I also bought 100.000 Ripples, today.

[fonzie]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

We should become associate.


WHERE ARE THE BULLS WHERE ARE THEY ?? CRYING ALONE IN THE DARK ??

They´re busy, taking loans to buy up all those cheap coins.

[mah87]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

We should become associate.


WHERE ARE THE BULLS WHERE ARE THEY ?? CRYING ALONE IN THE DARK ??

Here Baby. And I also bought 100.000 Ripples, today.

Good! You should dump them now before it crashes more!! BUY LATER IN 2015

[podyx]

Hello, my fellow Bitcoiners. How is Bitcoin doing so far?
Are you still busy maxin out your credit cards to buy up all the dirt cheap coins?
See you @ sub 500 400 300 $ soon on an exchange near you.

We should become associate.


WHERE ARE THE BULLS WHERE ARE THEY ?? CRYING ALONE IN THE DARK ??

dont worry about the bulls

bears gonna be like

in a couple months

[flynn]

Some of you guys keep using that word "manipulators"... princess-bride.jpg

Or maybe you mean stuff like the 'adamstgBit' fake accounts... those are not manipulators. Those are imbeciles

They're not manipulators, they're masturbators. 

Wasn't that bot on Gox named "Willy' ?

[fonzie]

Still no Bitstamp update? Is Mark the new CEO of Bitstamp?
If we don´t hear anything soon things will get way worse.
If they enable withdrawls and fix everything else until tomorrow we might stay above 500$ for another week,
otherwise....