Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WinslowIII]

Shouldn't the poll be updated? June 28 was yesterday. 

[1715174422]

1715174422

[1715174422]

1715174422

[JayJuanGee]

I have roach on ignore but would be happy to counter his misinformation in this instance. Bitcoin (per coin on average) costs anywhere between $1,300 and $37,400 to mine depending on where you are in the world. As you can see, mining is prohibitively expensive in much of the world (this is based on today's prices):



https://coinrate.com/cryptocurrency-mining-prices-and-profitability-by-country-in-realtime

And yes, not anybody can just start up their own mining operation to get "cheap coins." Most mining farms operate in the red for months or years before turning a profit -- they are invested in the long haul and weather unprofitable periods on the bet that the price of BTC will continue to increase in the future.

Besides, roach should know as well as anybody that the market dictates prices. This is what gives BTC - like any traded good in the world - its premium.

I checked the web page. They need to update their statistics. It appears that they are using figures for the S9, which uses 100 J/TH. The S15 uses 57J/TH and the S17 uses 56 J/TH. So it appears the costs need to be adjusted down by almost half. Still expensive to mine a BTC in most places though. From what I can tell, it also does not factor in additional costs, like cooling costs and depreciation of mining equipment.

Good observations, Bones, especially regarding the overall processing efficiencies of some of the newer mining equipment.

Regarding your points about cooling and depreciation of equipment, there is a geographical (and within country borders component to the efficiency depiction of the map), so I can see how cooling of equipment might by somewhat geographical, but even some countries are going to have variation in the climate range within their borders.  The depreciation of mining equipment might also have some geographical differences based on available markets, but I have a harder time considering the depreciation of machines to have much of a geographical / national border component that would be easy to capture in such a map.

[Last of the V8s]

Good observations, Bones, especially regarding the overall processing efficiencies of some of the newer mining equipment.

[d_eddie]

Dear r0ach, thanks for your post. My guesstimate is you made it to 90% of the ignore lists here. I'm in the other 10% because I love your impersonation. As I already said, you're probably a middle class, well educated Jew, politically engaged in an undercover operation to ridicule and undermine the alt-right.

You braindead, idiot scammers in this thread have NEVER once explained how the price of Bitcoin can go to $500k or even $50k while cost of production is $3-6k.

We did. I know I did recently.

I think the issue with realr0ach is mixing up marginal cost (cost for mining your next bitcoin) - and initial, fixed and recurrent costs (buying the equipment before Bitmain makes sure it's obsolete by using it "for testing", maintaining it). Those initial costs are too much of a risk. Risk a dozen grand so I can mine 0.4 coins at 3k per coin over a few months? I wouldn't do it, personally, if I didn't know damn well what it entails. Not even OG miners here do. My numbers might be off - I know jackshit about mining - but work out the arithmetic and see what you come up with.

Of course, the explanation wasn't for you - you won't listen, as all the regulars know.

I did it just so the occasional newcomer doesn't get caught in your net of lies.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Good news-it would mean unbelievable prices ahead (300K-500K)

You braindead, idiot scammers in this thread have NEVER once explained how the price of Bitcoin can go to $500k or even $50k while cost of production is $3-6k.

Velocity of money.

[JayJuanGee]

Who wants to move to Venezuela for a year and get their mine on
I’d consider it if I was single & a couple of us went into business together.

    The US has an embargo against Venezuela, so I wouldn't be able to go into such a venture. Unless I was planning on not returning to the US until the embargo is lifted. Plus, I'm not certain that I would want to live for a moment under a corrupt socialist government. I know scoring that cheap corn is enticing, but there are limits. 

I would not go so far as asserting that Venezuela has a "corrupt socialist government."  You seem to be buying too much into non-substantiated conclusory thinking that has been spun a lot in mainstream media.. especially in the USA and other countries who also are inclined to demonize Venezuela in a campaign that has been going on for nearly 20 years with clear roots during the Chavez regime, but more successful in recent times under the Maduro govt.

On the other hand, I will concede that going there to live would be quite risky because there is a lot of tension there at the moment, and we have heard that there has been a decent amount of conflict with bitcoin miners, too... that could cause you to become a target, even if you were not targeted for being either an american or anti-maduro based on your already asserted statement... hhahahahaha

I think anyone entering Venezuela to mine bitcoins better have some decent appearance of legitimacy about why they are there, perhaps even including family members or some kind of connection like that, and perhaps my brain is just too small to consider that the risks of drawing negative attention to oneself is likely way too much without some kind of real good camouflage as to why you are there and why do you have to run so many air conditioners in your 2 acre garage.

[d_eddie]

That said, these tools surrounding the SV protocol are standalone items created by unrelated individuals. So Craig is not involved in these. What's more, nChain is not involved. See, SV is a wonderously rich ecosystem of scaMs of unrelated parties all building atop Bitcoin something more or less like bcash.

Further, perhpas you missed where I clearly stated "... concatenate them upon retrieval into original large files"

FTFY 

[Elwar]

DATALIGHT RESEARCHES

Lightning Network Study. Will this technology become the new standard for Bitcoin transactions?

https://datalight.me/blog/researches/lightning-network-study-will-this-technology-become-the-new-standart-for-bitcoin-transactions/

Among other things that I have read:

- Bitcoin block size 1Mb.
- The Bitcoin network to transfer big amounts.
- LN for micropayments.

It's fine for me. (but we have to decentralize LN.)

I want LN to work but setting up a wallet is not as simple as downloading a bitcoin wallet and adding some funds.
Last time I tried it I either had to have a node running that I attach to, or use some service that runs a node for me. And even then, I had a hard time with it.

It's a similar problem with OpenBazaar. To buy or sell you need to download the software and run a node or pay for a service.

It reminds me of when I was trying to use gold as a currency. You could pay for a service to hold your gold and secure it and then pay a percentage to spend it via a debit card. The whole point of why I like Bitcoin is that you don't have to pay a monthly fee for someone to secure it for you.

Is there technology down the pipe that will make LN more user friendly? Is it possible?

[WinslowIII]

Roach is what happens to someone who dumped, never bought back and got left in the dust. Run over might be a better way to put it. All of his rants are nothing more than him expressing the anguish and regret he feels. He shouldn't be ignored, he should be pitied and used as a warning to others. His obsession with his own failings is going to get worse soon, a lot worse after the next halving.

[d_eddie]

How good to see Elwar around

[jbreher]

Seriously jbreher, don't you ever get tired of this shit?

Seriously Cryptotourist, indeed I do.

But a direct request was made of me. One that I cannot fulfill. It would probably be rude to just drop the request without the benefit of my reply.

And yes, having to clarify misrepresentations of The Other Bitcoins does indeed get tiresome. But I soldier on. Because truth is important.

Don't mean to get technical on you all the sudden by I was looking into it the other day and as of right now its only possible to cram 100 KB of data into a single BSV transaction (or 4 JJG posts -- sorry JJG, you know I'm still a fan).

BSV has long had widely-distributed tools to split larger files into multiple txs, and concatenate them upon retrieval into original large files.

I heard somewhere (I only come here lol) they also have backup servers to roll back any crap.

Oh. You "heard". How unsurprising. Right here in the echo chamber.

That said, these tools surrounding the SV protocol

Sorry, couldn't help myself. Its just what comes to mind.

OK, that was marginally funny. Touche'.

Nobody would ever buy a coin for $500k when they can simply mine one for $3-6k instead. 

You are forgetting the reward halving, this alone can make the price double without any  extra power needed.

Also, miners can get more efficient in future and use wasted energy.,

No. While exaggerated, r0ach has a point. Additional increase in price will inevitably result in increased hashpower thrown at mining. The natural state (once supply and demand shocks stop oscillating) is that the money expended upon mining opex + capex + marginal profit will be equal to the value of the mining rewards (block reward plus tx fees). Bitcoin hashing chips are already darned near the state of the art, meaning that the generational benefits of new hardware is slowing. Accordingly, capex will have a longer profitable time horizon, leading to the above equation being even more dominated by opex -- which is in turn energy cost.

Efficiency has nothing to do with the amount of energy expended in mining. More efficient HW just means that more hashpower will be put into service, until the energy cost expended brings the above equation back into balance.

[VB1001]

@Elwar

I agree with you, I also want LN to work and it will be easier in the future, there is a lot of money investing in this field.

I liked the article because they respect the origin of BTC.

At this moment I am not interested in LN, I will not pay for coffee with BTC.

I am glad to hear from you.

[nutildah]

Is there technology down the pipe that will make LN more user friendly? Is it possible?

Only 3rd party services at the moment. But I agree that in the future the process needs to be simplified. There should be an Electrum-like version of connectivity that bypasses having to run a full node while still maintaining some degree of independence for the user.

There's a $35 version of Raspberry Pi out there, but it still requires a good deal of determination and know-how to set up a LN channel.

[jojo69]

dark, of the radar.....

[bones261]

Only 3rd party services at the moment. But I agree that in the future the process needs to be simplified. There should be an Electrum-like version of connectivity that bypasses having to run a full node while still maintaining some degree of independence for the user.

There's a $35 version of Raspberry Pi out there, but it still requires a good deal of determination and know-how to set up a LN channel.

   Unfortunately, even when they come up with a SPV version, in order to ensure your channel partners don't try to close the channel with an earlier tx is to remain online at all times. They are working on getting watchtower services up to watch your channel while your node is not online. However, once again, this is third party. Also, there is the quandary that in order to make sure your funds are secure, you node must be online. However, your funds are now stored in a hot wallet, which is not the most secure...

[fillippone]

DATALIGHT RESEARCHES

Lightning Network Study. Will this technology become the new standard for Bitcoin transactions?

https://datalight.me/blog/researches/lightning-network-study-will-this-technology-become-the-new-standart-for-bitcoin-transactions/

Among other things that I have read:

- Bitcoin block size 1Mb.
- The Bitcoin network to transfer big amounts.
- LN for micropayments.

It's fine for me. (but we have to decentralize LN.)

I want LN to work but setting up a wallet is not as simple as downloading a bitcoin wallet and adding some funds.
Last time I tried it I either had to have a node running that I attach to, or use some service that runs a node for me. And even then, I had a hard time with it.

It's a similar problem with OpenBazaar. To buy or sell you need to download the software and run a node or pay for a service.

It reminds me of when I was trying to use gold as a currency. You could pay for a service to hold your gold and secure it and then pay a percentage to spend it via a debit card. The whole point of why I like Bitcoin is that you don't have to pay a monthly fee for someone to secure it for you.

Is there technology down the pipe that will make LN more user friendly? Is it possible?

Bitcoin is in competition with physical gold as a store of value. It has to prove his reliability over the centuries as gold did, Bitcoin is ingot 10 years old, still can fail, but I see good chance can achieve constant real purchasing power over very long time arc as gold did.

LN is in competition for MoP, mean of payments,  with credit cards, until the user experience is not at par with credit cards, you can basically use without even taking it out your wallet , or integrated in your mobile (Apple Pay) Lightning Network will face tough competition.
In addition to that credit card have some advantages: for example censurability for small payments could be a nice feature ( what if the merchant charges an erroneous amount and I don’t immediately realise it?)
We are bitcoiner, but we don’ Need to be zealots.

[JayJuanGee]

It kind of pissed me off. I was taking my sweet ass time accumulating in the $3K-$4K range. I assumed we'd probably still be there now.

I only ended up re-buying half of what I had originally planned - why couldn't we have just panic bought like bitches instead of being so methodical?

Still, can't complain.

I planned to buy in big at 2700-2800.  I knew 3000-4000 was cheap long-term, yet I got greedy again, still beating myself up about that.

very understandable 

I know this is a tendency that people have, but I still have difficulties giving a lot of sympathy to the wait for lower prices approach.

For sure, I sympathize with the approach of "still having money available" in case the price goes to $2,700-$2,800, and even having had been prepared for  "still having money available" for a whole hell of a lot lower BTC prices that are quite a bit lower than reasonable expectations, because we know that BTC can be unreasonable and has shown a decent number of times to be unreasonable, but I still have difficulties with having regrets about not buying.

In my thinking, you buy whatever you are able to buy while still being prepared for either UP or DOWN.  Even I was running low on fiat funds, especially after the BTC price dropped below $6k because I largely bought a decent amount back with the nearly 70% plunge down to $6k.  So, yeah, when the plunge got close to the 85% territory (which was the $3,122 area), I did not have a lot of money left for buying BTC... and I had to restructure some of my available dollars and to re-figure out some future cashflow  in order to at least have some money that I would be able to use in the event that BTC were to go even lower than that $3,122 local low...   

So, yeah, having money available and re-thinking the situation should be a pretty normal and prudent exercise that any BTC HODLer/accumulator would do, so once the cash flow and the cash holdings and the expenses are figured out, we still had about 4.5 months in that sub $4k price area to figure out how much of our funds that we could buy at that point and how much we needed to keep in reserves in case the price went lower than the then local low of $3,122. 

Maybe any regrets would be of having had not set a sufficient amount of time to really consider one's personal situation, and then once the BTC price went up on 4/1/19 and broke through $4,200 not to have regrets about whatever, position that a guy (or gal) had taken prior to 4/1/19?

So, in that regard, the main conundrum should have been to ponder about what could be learned from the situation.  What can be learned to make better assessments in the present based on present circumstances that includes considerations of what will happen in the future and being able to reconsider when the future time comes, as well.... 

TLDR: I do understand that people can sometimes feel "regrets" yet feeling regrets should be a motivator for learning, and such learning would be how to spend a sufficient amount of time to consider one's own situation, finances and thoughts, in order to lessen any kind of likelihood of feeling regrets in the future.

[vroom]

DATALIGHT RESEARCHES

Lightning Network Study. Will this technology become the new standard for Bitcoin transactions?

https://datalight.me/blog/researches/lightning-network-study-will-this-technology-become-the-new-standart-for-bitcoin-transactions/

Among other things that I have read:

- Bitcoin block size 1Mb.
- The Bitcoin network to transfer big amounts.
- LN for micropayments.

It's fine for me. (but we have to decentralize LN.)

I want LN to work but setting up a wallet is not as simple as downloading a bitcoin wallet and adding some funds.
Last time I tried it I either had to have a node running that I attach to, or use some service that runs a node for me. And even then, I had a hard time with it.

It's a similar problem with OpenBazaar. To buy or sell you need to download the software and run a node or pay for a service.

It reminds me of when I was trying to use gold as a currency. You could pay for a service to hold your gold and secure it and then pay a percentage to spend it via a debit card. The whole point of why I like Bitcoin is that you don't have to pay a monthly fee for someone to secure it for you.

Is there technology down the pipe that will make LN more user friendly? Is it possible?

usability and accessibility are some key factors to make a technology successful. LN developers know what and are working hard on apps with good user experience.

Do you know these LN projects?

Android/IOS Apps
BlueWallet - https://bluewallet.io/
Wallet of Satoshi - https://www.walletofsatoshi.com/

LN node
Spark + c-lightning for the DIY - https://medium.com/@notgrubles/spark-a-new-gui-for-c-lightning-2cf2f024500c
casa node for the lazy - https://store.casa/lightning-node/

Services
Lightning Pizza - https://ln.pizza/
polofeed - https://pollofeed.com/

[jbreher]

jbreher - You do still believe that wright is Satoshi, correct?

Where the hell did you ever get that idea? I have never said that I believe Wright is Satoshi. Indeed, I have publicly stated several times right here within this thread that I consider the prospect unlikely. Though possible.

what about his moral character? do you believe he is ethical?

Well, I've never interacted with him directly. Accordingly, it is rather hard to gauge moral character. But I have seen nothing in his actions that would make me suspect that he would commit aggression against another.

what about his supposed tech genius?

Again, I don't know what contributions he has made, as opposed to others in the organizations with whom he is associated. Though I have listened to a number of his statements, read a number of his posts, and studied a few of his patents. In the above, I have seen some unique insights that have turned out to be true, some points that the community has ridiculed that still seem they may be true, some things that I believe were outright errors, etc. So as with pretty much everybody, the story is somewhat of a mixed bag. But from the evidence at hand, yes. I find the term 'tech genius' is likely warranted.

wouldn't be possible for him to make a mistake like this would it?

What mistake? Allegedly claiming that a certain address was his, when it may have been shown not to be? I dunno. Let's see what the trial brings out on the topic.

Why all the questions for me?

[Traxo]

Relaying bytes:

Accordingly, capex will have a longer profitable time horizon, leading to the above equation being even more dominated by opex -- which is in turn energy cost.

Which in turn is capex, e.g. solar panels run during the daytime to lower average cost per KWH. Solar panels are as low as $0.02 per KWH now and costs are dropping 20% for every doubling of production per Swanson’s Law.

Also you seem to not appreciate that the payback duration on the mining hardware is dominated by the hardware costs, not the electricity costs, especially for Ethash.

Thus @realr0ach doesn’t really have any holistic point. You seem to liter argumentation with irrelevant details because ostensibly you think being correct on every irrelevant detail is meaningful. That is the myopic mindset of a “nuts & bolts”, shirt-pocket-calculator engineer, but not the mindset for greatness and leadership. I prefer to attempt to extract the relevant from the irrelevant.