Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Is this real? What is this??

probably not, cars are not breaking

I know I wouldn't keep going if a plane suddenly crashed on the bridge I was driving

[empowering]

To date Bitcoin has for many been one of the best investments in human history, monetarily.

Sigh. Bitcoin was an excellent investment, in hindsight - for those who bought before nov/2013 and will be smart enough to sell before it collapses.

But, in hindsight, buying lottery tickets was much better investment - for those who bought the winning tickets.

Bitcoin has been a terrible investment for those who bought in late november, or since january.

Bitcoin is still a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease.

No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase.  Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim.

The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi.  That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price.  What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$?

I do not want to change anyone's mind here.  Adults have the right to spend their money anyway they like -- investing in risky ventures like bitcoin, poker, or lottery tickets, or even throwing it away.  And they have the right to try to convince anyone to do the same -- as long as they honestly warn him of all the risks and unknowns, without fallacious arguments or unfounded promises.  Gambling with your money is OK, scamming other people is not.

You are quite right, larger markets and a fixed supply increases the price. But how many people do you think use Bitcoin Worldwide? I would hazard a guess and say a little over a million. Now say bitcoin really becomes (a little) mainstream and 5 million people use it. Say those 4 million new bitcoiners start to use it now with the recent drop. You don't think that will propel the price higher? With all the recent media coverage, let's assume that everyday 3600 new people start using bitcoin and everyone of those wants only 1 bitcoin. Now you have an increased demand of 350 (3600-newly mined bitcoins per day ~3251) bitcoin per day. Now, the average bitcoiner hodls to a certain degree, let's say 50% increase in value before selling (I know it's way higher than that, but hey...). Let's also assume that all exchanges run at the same optimal price (again, I know...) and that there are no bad news that rally a dump (...) .

Then you have a demand of 350 per day or 127750 bitcoin per year left to satisfy, and that is with every miner out there selling his bitcoins instantly.  Can you guess now why everyone says that the former logarithmic trendline will continue? I just thought you could use a little supply and demand mathematics.

So the answer to your question of what event is needed to propel the price upwards is easy: time. and not even that much of it.

Exactly , all I am waiting for here is a few more cycles of the network effect to kick in and for the ecosystem to grow a little more, the legal side to get more clear (all of which appear are happening as we speak) and then we are going to see more growth in price... this whole thing has only just begun, personally I think this is quite obvious.


 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase.  Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim.

True

Bitcoin is still a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease.

The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi.  That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price.  What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$?

You don't give any arguments.  All you seem to be saying is : "I don't see the value in BTC, and I think markets are saturated".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[delphic]

Is this real? What is this??

probably not, cars are not breaking

I know I wouldn't keep going if a plane suddenly crashed on the bridge I was driving

Yeah, a huge plane traveling at over 200mph can land on a bridge with hardly any damage to the plane or bridge.. 

[fluidjax]

No stock trader cares for, or even cares to know, the past history of the price of a stock. One cannot use ancient price history to justify a claim of future price increase.  Indeed, resorting to that argument only highlights the lack of any real justification for that claim.

True

Bitcoin is still a terrible investment, because there is no reason to believe that the price will increase, and several reasons for which it may decrease.

The cause for the increase from 17$ to 1200$ is obvious: the opening of the Chinese market by BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi.  That was basic economics: larger market, fixed supply = higher price.  What event is expected to happen that could propel the price much higher than 700$?

You don't give any arguments.  All you seem to be saying is : "I don't see the value in BTC, and I think markets are saturated".

Exactly, I think you are saying that fundamentally Bitcoin will fail, but you don't give us a reason why.  Why does it have no future?

[hlynur]

Is this real? What is this??

probably not, cars are not breaking

I know I wouldn't keep going if a plane suddenly crashed on the bridge I was driving

Yeah, a huge plane traveling at over 200mph can land on a bridge with hardly any damage to the plane or bridge..  

it's a pic by digital artist steve mcghee:
http://stevemcghee.com/?page_id=1491

it was used for a facebook-video-scam:
http://www.hoax-slayer.com/plane-crash-bridge-survey-scam.shtml

[ChrisML]

Way to many quotes for this time of the day.

Am derunk. Im watching my BTC's and I want them tofo $450+ on mtgox. halp.

Kthanx

[JorgeStolfi]

You are quite right, larger markets and a fixed supply increases the price. But how many people do you think use Bitcoin Worldwide? I would hazard a guess and say a little over a million.

I have no idea of how many people use bitcoin for legal commerce.  Is there any solid estimate, somewhere?

Huobi's CEO claims that he has 10,000 active clients.  I would guess that no other exchange has more than that.  So we have perhaps 50,000 active clients
in total.  Granted, those are speculators, not users.

However, I would guess that less than 1% of all trade at the exchanges is people buying BTC to buy legal stuff.   People who keep moving bids and asks up and down to follow the price are speculators, and they seem to  generate most of the volume.

That would mean less than 3000 BTC/day, or 2,000,000 US$/day used for commerce.  If the average purchase is 100 $, that would be less than 20,000 users.

Those are just guesses, loosely based on what I see on the charts.  I would love to see real data.

[fonzie]

Jorge is about to become btctalks new enemy no.1
HE SAID BAD THINGS ABOUT OUR SAVIOR!



BTW: You´re actually quite famous? Is that you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

[seleme]

Jorge is teacher, they are hardly most exciting people on the world, aren't they? He probably thought Google is too risky until 2 years ago 

It's that kind of people, the only non risky thing for them is their monthly salary.

[fluidjax]

Jorge is about to become btctalks new enemy no.1
HE SAID BAD THINGS ABOUT OUR SAVIOR!

No chance , don't worry Fonzie your position is safe, Jorge offers a more constructive and thoughtful insight.

[empowering]

Fonz .Nope... just countering with solid points...  what are the fundamental reasons Bitcoin will fail and we will not see another few cycles of the network effect? growing adoption/user numbers and awareness, a stronger and more trusted ecosystem, a clearer regulatory path?
It is also a very useful and cheap service ... people like useful and cheap.. and soon it will most likely be, established, safe , cheap and effective... which will only help its cause more.. so what stands in the way that will not make the price go higher in light of these factors?
Jorge said it himself, supply and demand so what happens when there is more demand than supply? which it looks very much like there will be over the next (Edit) few years as the factors I mention above play out and come to reality..

They are all valid quesitons right? because this is the reply to why should be belive that prices will go over $700

[Spaceman_Spiff]

BTW: You´re actually quite famous? Is that you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

Seems to fit the description, cool CV (and field of work).

[fonzie]

Do we have to wait for the next official Gox announcement or can we crash the market before that. It happens anyway, so let´s do it now.

[bassclef]

Granted, those are speculators, not users.

I remember you saying something about speculators before. They provide liquidity and absorb excess risk that average investors are not willing to take. They exist in every market. I don't see it as a negative, as their trading is equally bound by the laws of supply and demand which will result in reasonably accurate price discovery over time. So bring on the speculation, it's all part of the adoption curve which, in Bitcoin world, is shared by bitcoin owners, not venture capitalists.

[JorgeStolfi]

You don't give any arguments.  All you seem to be saying is : "I don't see the value in BTC, and I think markets are saturated".

I can see the potential utility of cryptocoins (apart from a host of economic problems that have no stisfactory answer yet) and I wish that they would succed.

But the issue is whether Bitcoin is a good investment now.  That depends only on whether its price will increase, by how much, and when.

So, isn't "the market is saturated" a very good argument to doubt a further increase in price in the next fewyears?  For another rally like november's one would need to get a substantial number of  people buying substantial amounts of bitcoins for long-term investment or speculation.  It is the Bitcoin "salesmen" who should explain where those investors will come from (and why they will not invest into Litecoin or Google instead).

As for the longer term, I have already given several reasons why I believe that Bitcoin is unlikely to succeed (not "certain to fail"), and why the old arguments of the "salesmen" have lost their bite.   Have you seen my earlier posts?

[empowering]

As an experiment ... go to Google trends....

Type in the first entry as Bitcoin (and notice the graph and does it remind you of any other graphs you may have seen related to Bitcoin ? not exactly ... but you get the drift..

 then add a few more.. trend searchs to the graph  I chose Western Union, Nasdaq,Forex,Xfactor

Take a look at the results..

not sure the link will work but you can do it yourself... the google trends data is quite interesting I think... you can clearly see a spikes in interest..

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin&cmpt=q

Not sure this link will work

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin%2C%20Western%20Union%2C%20Nasdaq%2C%20forex%2C%20xfactor&cmpt=q

Does not mean a whole lot, but one way or another the trend peaks are just getting higher so far and I imagine this will increase... along with also internet use in general over the next 5 years.. fresh meat...

Also this is quite interesting stats for wallet note China does download a lot more in 2013, bbbbut not as many as USA
 

http://thegenesisblock.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/global-wallet-downloads.png?be58f1

[JorgeStolfi]

BTW: You´re actually quite famous? Is that you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

Seems to fit the description, cool CV (and field of work).

yes, it is me...

[Walsoraj]

BTW: You´re actually quite famous? Is that you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

Seems to fit the description, cool CV (and field of work).

He has also contributed to the study of the Voynich manuscript.

epic.