Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[medialab101]

Exact,y that's why I wrote on page before that he is teacher and they are not really exciting ones.

They tend to play on safe, and there's no place for that in crypto at this moment. You either risk hard and make it big, or you fail trying

Yes, but the fact that he's here says something

Jorge, do you have a wallet set up? I use Electrum for small amounts as it's super easy and lightweight. I'm sure some of us would throw a few cents your way to play with, if only to promote Ivy League academic research!

It's probably more because it's his niche that made him being interested to see what's going on.

Well, I welcome Jorge to the community but I ask that if he is going to be a Bitcoin skeptic, in the academic sense, that he back it up with data and or hard facts rather than with generalizations or reductive arguments.

[mestar]

Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi?

No offense intended but you seem to have a very tenuous grasp on how Bitcoin works. Before you start making grand predictions about it's future maybe you should spend some more time educating yourself about its inner workings.

Are you claiming people need to install the client in order to buy Bitcoins on Huobi and keep them there?  Since when?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

As an experiment ... go to Google trends....

Thanks for the links.  The peaks seem to match significnt changes in price and the growth of the "market".

Also this is quite interesting stats for wallet note China does download a lot more in 2013, bbbbut not as many as USA

http://thegenesisblock.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/global-wallet-downloads.png?be58f1

Interesting too. 

Are those numbers complete (e.g. could the Chinese be downloading the software from a local source not counted in those graphs?)

My picture of the typical Huobi client is a low or middle-class person, who does not understand English, has no programming knowledge, and keeps his bitcoins in his Huobi account.  He cannot use bitcoins to pay for things in China and does not usually travel outside the country.  Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi?

Yes it is interesting and I think that we will see the correlation stick for some time and also the trend increase to continue to grow with higer peaks as the network effect takes effect..and as adoption and interest and users and new and awareness grows, along with the legal situaiton and the ecosystem, then the peaks will get higher both in trend charts user numbers and eventually... price..  

I imagine the figures are not complete. Yes the could be downloading client locally as could people in the US not sure exactly how these figures
are complied either.

No to downloading a client to trade on Huboi

And as to what you imagine the average Chinese bitcoin user to be ... I think that whilst the demographic you suggest does exist- there will be a large number of users that are in Beijing and in Shangahi on the bund in their offices, multilingual , affluent  and very interested/invested in Bitcoin and that is not me guessing... I know..and I also know a lot of UK expats living in China that also are interested in Bitcoin.

I am curious, in a few months when Lawsy and co release their regs, and maybe offer Bitlicense, and if it does not stifle Bitcoin, which at the moment it looks and sound as if they are going to go light touch... and then a large well established set of services and exchanges set up
and it gets marketing pushes from various sources.. and even maybe makes it to the superbowl ads one day .. or some such..
would you reconsider your point of view then?

Also you mention Paypal, well the guy behind Paypal is an interesting chap.. do you know anything about him and the Paypal story?

[kurious]

Personally I welcome Jorge's presence here, he is a benign character and takes a different and thoughtful view.

He has tried to look at trends from different angles and has spent a lot of time watching for behaviors that can be of use to us all - whether we are sceptics, or believers.

OK,. in my opinion, he isn't always right and he does see the problems we have adding up to a prognosis which is (on balance, from his POV) not likely to succeed.

However, he is not a troll, his posts are thoughtful and I always read his stuff.

So, I am sorry chaps - better ten Jorges than one Fonzie anyday.

Bom dia, Jorge - keep it up, but expect many (including me) to disagree with you.

I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."

[medialab101]

Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi?

No offense intended but you seem to have a very tenuous grasp on how Bitcoin works. Before you start making grand predictions about it's future maybe you should spend some more time educating yourself about its inner workings.

Are you claiming people need to install the client in order to buy Bitcoins on Huobi and keep them there?  Since when?

No, Jorge was questioning if that was the case... which we all know it isn't.

[mestar]

Would he need to download the software and/or create a private wallet in order to open an account at Huobi?

No offense intended but you seem to have a very tenuous grasp on how Bitcoin works. Before you start making grand predictions about it's future maybe you should spend some more time educating yourself about its inner workings.

Are you claiming people need to install the client in order to buy Bitcoins on Huobi and keep them there?  Since when?

No, Jorge was questioning if that was the case... which we all know it isn't.

His question was a rhetorical one.

[JorgeStolfi]

under which circumstance would you conclude that you have been wrong?

I think I already answered that earlier today or yesterday...

Can you describe what would qualify as: a) a "success" of Bitcoin

I will be happy, and count it as a success, if bitcoin becomes a viable and attractive alternative to credit cards for legal international payments via internet.  By "attractve" I mean one that many people will chose to use for its merits (convenience, price, safety, etc.), not for political motives or because they have invested in Bitcoins and want to encourage merchants.

Right now it is very far from that landmark, wouldn't you agree? Already I know that I will not be able to pay a hotel bill in China, for example.

b) Bitcoin being a good investment.

Buying a lottery ticket is always a bad investment, because one can compute the expected payoff, and it is negative.

If one buys a ticket and wins the jackpot, still was a bad investment. 

A good investment is one that, according to the best knowledge and judgement available at the time, gives a positive expectation of return.  But there is no way to measure the probability of an event, either before or after the fact.  Therefore, there is no way to determine empirically that something is a good investment before the fact, and no way to tell whether if it was a good investment after the fact.

Only in very few cases cases --- such as lotteries and other games --- there are proabilities that everyone would agree to, and therefore one can "prove" that something is a bad or good investment.  Most of the time, probablities are subjective and personal, and so is the notion of "good investment" or "bad investment".

If someone invests in Bitcoin and gets filthy rich, good for him; but can you tell whether he was wise, or just lucky but stupid?

Last year the Brazilian oil company OGX filed for bankruptcy.  Its stock price had multiplied by 10x in a couple of years (from 2 BRL to 24 BRL, if I recall correctly), which is fantastic in that market.  Then it crashed in a few days, after it became known that its two deep-sea oil wells were nowhere as productive as it was hoped.  Its shares are still traded today as a penny stock, 0,15 BRL in november, 0.30 BRL now.

OGX had several billion dollars of real money invested into it by many people. Were those people bad investors? I would not say so, they apparently did their homework and got positive expected value at the time. 

Some of the original investors must have sold at the peak and made 1000% profit, some didn't and had 100% loss.  Were the former better investors than the latter?

Or, to be more dramatic -- someone plays Russian Roulette ten times for a 10$ bet, and wins. Would you call that person a good investor?

(That reminds me of a great little movie called /Number 13/ -- not to be confused with /Number 23/.  But I saw the French BW original, cannot vouch for the remake.)

[medialab101]

Personally I welcome Jorge's presence here, he is a benign character and takes a different and thoughtful view.

He has tried to look at trends from different angles and has spent a lot of time watching for behaviors that can be of use to us all - whether we are sceptics, or believers.

OK,. in my opinion, he isn't always right and he does see the problems we have adding up to a prognosis which is (on balance, from his POV) not likely to succeed.

However, he is not a troll, his posts are thoughtful and I always read his stuff.

So, I am sorry chaps - better ten Jorges than one Fonzie anyday.

Bom dia, Jorge - keep it up, but expect many (including me) to disagree with you.

I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."

Yes, I agree with you. However, trolls like Fonzie can be easily ignored because he is a nobody and more importantly a self-professed troll.. in short, nobody takes him seriously.

The problem I see with Jorge is that he is an educated and accomplished person which lends force to his opinions. However, it seems he has not taken the time to properly inform himself about the subject which he is pontificating on. Which makes him much more of a danger than people like Fonzie. I welcome Jorge but I ask that he moderate his negative views until he has a better understanding and until he has some way to substantiate the basis for his negative claims.

But I must admit, I do like Jorge and I hope that he stays with us in the forums.

[empowering]

Personally I welcome Jorge's presence here, he is a benign character and takes a different and thoughtful view.

He has tried to look at trends from different angles and has spent a lot of time watching for behaviors that can be of use to us all - whether we are sceptics, or believers.

OK,. in my opinion, he isn't always right and he does see the problems we have adding up to a prognosis which is (on balance, from his POV) not likely to succeed.

However, he is not a troll, his posts are thoughtful and I always read his stuff.

So, I am sorry chaps - better ten Jorges than one Fonzie anyday.

Bom dia, Jorge - keep it up, but expect many (including me) to disagree with you.

I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."

Yes, I agree with you. However, trolls like Fonzie can be easily ignored because he is a nobody and more importantly a self-professed troll.. in short, nobody takes him seriously.

The problem I see with Jorge is that he is an educated and accomplished person which lends force to his opinions. However, it seems he has not taken the time to properly inform himself about the subject which he is pontificating on. Which makes him much more of a danger than people like Fonzie. I welcome Jorge but I ask that he moderate his negative view until he has a better understanding and until he has some way to substantiate the basis for his negative views.

But I must admit, I do like Jorge and I hope that he stays with us in the forums.

+ 1

[podyx]

+ 1

+2

[Davyd05]

+ 1

+2

I told the fonz to aspire to be Jorge lol

[JorgeStolfi]

No, Jorge was questioning if that was the case... which we all know it isn't.

I genuiney do  not know.  Technically of course it is not necessary, but I thought that Huobi might require it in order to simplify BTC withdrawals or whatever (just as it might require clients to provide a bank account for CNY withdrawls).

Note that I have not opened an account anywhere.

[kurious]

Personally I welcome Jorge's presence here, he is a benign character and takes a different and thoughtful view.

He has tried to look at trends from different angles and has spent a lot of time watching for behaviors that can be of use to us all - whether we are sceptics, or believers.

OK,. in my opinion, he isn't always right and he does see the problems we have adding up to a prognosis which is (on balance, from his POV) not likely to succeed.

However, he is not a troll, his posts are thoughtful and I always read his stuff.

So, I am sorry chaps - better ten Jorges than one Fonzie anyday.

Bom dia, Jorge - keep it up, but expect many (including me) to disagree with you.

I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."

Yes, I agree with you. However, trolls like Fonzie can be easily ignored because he is a nobody and more importantly a self-professed troll.. in short, nobody takes him seriously.

The problem I see with Jorge is that he is an educated and accomplished person which lends force to his opinions. However, it seems he has not taken the time to properly inform himself about the subject which he is pontificating on. Which makes him much more of a danger than people like Fonzie. I welcome Jorge but I ask that he moderate his negative views until he has a better understanding and until he has some way to substantiate the basis for his negative claims.

But I must admit, I do like Jorge and I hope that he stays with us in the forums.

I love it that he did an analysis of when the Chinese were asleep and tried to spot a trend within it.   It led nowhere in particular - but I loved it that he tried to find something in it, just for the hell of it.

No, he isn't a holder, so he doesn't know how it feels, or how everything works exactly - but what he does know he is trying to apply to Bitcoin.

I reckon he might spot something we haven't thought of, and I will watch and wait, just in case one post of his teaches me something I didn't know.

He obviously knows a shitload about statistical analysis, I would want him on my team - even just for a contrary view of things.

[PoolMinor]

[medialab101]

under which circumstance would you conclude that you have been wrong?

I think I already answered that earlier today or yesterday...

Can you describe what would qualify as: a) a "success" of Bitcoin

I will be happy, and count it as a success, if bitcoin becomes a viable and attractive alternative to credit cards for legal international payments via internet.  By "attractve" I mean one that many people will chose to use for its merits (convenience, price, safety, etc.), not for political motives or because they have invested in Bitcoins and want to encourage merchants.

Right now it is very far from that landmark, wouldn't you agree? Already I know that I will not be able to pay a hotel bill in China, for example.

b) Bitcoin being a good investment.

Buying a lottery ticket is always a bad investment, because one can compute the expected payoff, and it is negative.

If one buys a ticket and wins the jackpot, still was a bad investment. 

A good investment is one that, according to the best knowledge and judgement available at the time, gives a positive expectation of return.  But there is no way to measure the probability of an event, either before or after the fact.  Therefore, there is no way to determine empirically that something is a good investment before the fact, and no way to tell whether if it was a good investment after the fact.

Only in very few cases cases --- such as lotteries and other games --- there are proabilities that everyone would agree to, and therefore one can "prove" that something is a bad or good investment.  Most of the time, probablities are subjective and personal, and so is the notion of "good investment" or "bad investment".

If someone invests in Bitcoin and gets filthy rich, good for him; but can you tell whether he was wise, or just lucky but stupid?

Last year the Brazilian oil company OGX filed for bankruptcy.  Its stock price had multiplied by 10x in a couple of years (from 2 BRL to 24 BRL, if I recall correctly), which is fantastic in that market.  Then it crashed in a few days, after it became known that its two deep-sea oil wells were nowhere as productive as it was hoped.  Its shares are still traded today as a penny stock, 0,15 BRL in november, 0.30 BRL now.

OGX had several billion dollars of real money invested into it by many people. Were those people bad investors? I would not say so, they apparently did their homework and got positive expected value at the time. 

Some of the original investors must have sold at the peak and made 1000% profit, some didn't and had 100% loss.  Were the former better investors than the latter?

Or, to be more dramatic -- someone plays Russian Roulette ten times for a 10$ bet, and wins. Would you call that person a good investor?

(That reminds me of a great little movie called /Number 13/ -- not to be confused with /Number 23/.  But I saw the French BW original, cannot vouch for the remake.)

Jorge,

What is 'investing'? You seem to be focussing too much on the financial gain aspect of investing. Please understand that a lot of us here invest in Bitcoin because we see it as an important disruptive technology that will change the traditional power-balance and bring invocation on par with the creation of the internet.

In my lifetime I have seen few opportunities to be a part of such a fundamental and innovative movement, that has such great potential to do good for so many, while, at the same time offering the kind of returns that most of us here have already secured and will (most likely) continue to enjoy for the coming years.

[KeyserSoze]

Sigh. Bitcoin was an excellent investment, in hindsight - for those who bought before nov/2013 and will be smart enough to sell before it collapses.

Yes, for those who bought for the 4-5 years before 11/2013, it's good. For those who bought in the 4 months since 11/2013 it has been bad. Maybe I don't understand why you're going on and on about an investment of 4 months that hasn't paid off yet. Anyway, don't feel bad about your bad buy timing, the price seems likely to increase from here and there are few reasons to believe it will decrease.

[Holliday]

I will be happy, and count it as a success, if bitcoin becomes a viable and attractive alternative to credit cards for legal international payments via internet.

I can agree with that statement if you omit legal. Legal isn't equivalent to moral and in many cases is the opposite. I'm not sure why we should judge anything by whether or not it is legal.

[JorgeStolfi]

I think it was Voltaire who is supposed to have said: "I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."

Thanks to all the Voltaires who welcomed me here, moer or less 

I will try to keep my negativism to myself.  I wish that things turn out as well as possible for everybody...

[Holliday]

Jorge is starting to remind me of "s" or "unk". Smart fellows, both of them, yet neither of them could see the forest for the trees.