Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Holliday]

How to lose half a million dollars IOUs instantly.

FTFY.

It's a huge loss, however you cut it.

I agree. Trading on Gox is a huge loss, however you cut it.

[derpinheimer]

I´m willing to pay 10 BTC for detailed behind the scenes information about what has been goin on on Gox in the last weeks/months.
I mean there must be some really well thought plan behind all this madness. It can´t be just as dumb as it looks.

ill giev u this insider info fur just 3  easy payments of 2.22btc

pm for details

[KFR]

just because gox withdraws were to do with overly modified source... does not mean jack shit, the malleability issue still exists as a way of manipulation of the chain no matter how small, no matter if overall balances are not effected , bitcoin still has an issue.

I have seen these issues when testing hard forks with coins I have been working on.  

Well then you'll have seen all the discussion on Github about the malleability issues both historically and recently.  

What exactly do you mean by "manipulation of the chain" in this context?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Well that just happened. Messed up my triangle too. Damn you whale  

[BCbitcoin]

How to lose half a million dollars IOUs instantly.

FTFY.

It's a huge loss, however you cut it. Whenever it comes time for them to buy out, they will be able to obtain that many less bitcoins which will be worth that much less in fiat.

If his tactic is to wait for the news and market buy, he would have paid that premium anyway. Probably more if a good trader beat him to the punch, which is likely. He's the reason gox btc withdrawals will mean $900/goxcoin. He should learn from Willy.

[JorgeStolfi]

For whateer it is worth, here is the report on the Chinese Slumber Method predicition for today.
The prediciton was way off, of course.

Prediction posted on 2014-02-15 00:46:51 UTC
Prediction valid for: 2014-02-15 19:00--19:59 (nor before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3620 -- 3670 CNY (3630 plus or minus 40)
Huobi's actual price (L -- H):   3948 -- 3973 CNY (3961 plus or minus 13)
Error between interval centers: 331 CNY

The prediciton is the rightmost blue rectangle in the chart below.  The Yellow dots are the mean hourly prices t 19:00 every day.


Bitstamp's predicted price: 575 -- 625 USD (600 plus or minus 25)
Bitstamp's actual price: 643 --652 USD (648 plus or minus 4)
Error between interval centers: 48 USD

In the chart below, the red/green strokes are actual Bitstamp prices, but the yellow dots are Huobi's mean prices at 19:00 every day,
divided by the currency factor R (6.40 for feb/07--feb/09, 6.12 all other days).


EDIT: explanation for Bitstamp's chart.

[JorgeStolfi]

In spite of the epic fails of the last two predictions, let me try again for tomorrow.

We now have two apparently reliable Slumber Points on Huobi's chart (feb/14 = 4008 CNY, feb/15 = 3961 CNY); let's call that a trend. 

Extrapolating in a straight line gives ~3915 CNY for Huobi. Dividing by R = 6.12 we get ~640 USD for Bitstamp.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: 2014-02-16 19:00 to 19:59 (not before, not after)
Huobi: 3885 -- 3945 CNY (3915 plus or minus 30)
Bitstamp: 630 -- 650 USD (640 plus or minus 10)

Defective predictions will be replaced or repaired, at our discrection, if mailed back to the factory in the original container.

[empowering]

I will be happy, and count it as a success, if bitcoin becomes a viable and attractive alternative to credit cards for legal international payments via internet.

I can agree with that statement if you omit legal. Legal isn't equivalent to moral and in many cases is the opposite. I'm not sure why we should judge anything by whether or not it is legal.

I agree that "legal" is not "moral" and often opposite to it.

But I am not a libertarian -- I believe that government, laws, taxes, etc. are necessary, we must fight to improve them, not to abolish them.

So what I meant is: if bitcoin will only (or mostly) be used for illegal activities, I wiill not consider it as being a success.

Not that I think that to be very likely, though. Given Silk Road and all that, I would say that bitcoin is worse than banks for those purposes...

"Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A

A great watch!!

 thanks for that..

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KFR]

"Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A

Thanks so much for that.  This chap's spot on IMHO.

[pjviitas]

are you sure it's good news?   the problem with the malleability is still there to be abused.

I don't think you understand that problem.  

Now the exchanges have all updated their custom wallets to work the way they should have worked there's no major problems facing Bitcoin.  Some exchanges e.g. Kraken were not directly affected the whole time.

what?  I think you have read too much GA propaganda.

just because gox withdraws were to do with overly modified source... does not mean jack shit, the malleability issue still exists as a way of manipulation of the chain no matter how small, no matter if overall balances are not effected , bitcoin still has an issue.

I have seen these issues when testing hard forks with coins I have been working on.  

Saying that malleability is an issue is no different than saying that buggy code is an issue.  It's an issue if you let it become an issue.

There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place.  Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.

The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.

Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.

[BitChick]

"Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A

Thanks so much for that.  This chap's spot on IMHO.

Interesting.  I like how he referred to Bitcoin as the "big one" for disruption at around 9:20.  True, very true.

[HairyMaclairy]

In spite of the epic fails of the last two predictions, let me try again for tomorrow.

We now have two apparently reliable Slumber Points on Huobi's chart (feb/14 = 4008 CNY, feb/15 = 3961 CNY); let's call that a trend. 

Extrapolating in a straight line gives ~3915 CNY for Huobi. Dividing by R = 6.12 we get ~640 USD for Bitstamp.

Therefore:

Prediction valid for: 2014-02-16 19:00 to 19:59 (not before, not after)
Huobi: 3885 -- 3945 CNY (3915 plus or minus 30)
Bitstamp: 630 -- 650 USD (640 plus or minus 10)

Defective predictions will be replaced or repaired, at our discrection, if mailed back to the factory in the original container.

Jorge

May I respectfully suggest your prediction will be right (but for the wrong reason).

The market is currently balanced and awaiting Monday's Mt Gox announcement which will likely occur at 7pm Japan time.  Your prediction occurs before then accordingly it is reasonable to anticipate that the market will continue to walk the current tightrope until an announcement is made at which point it will go ballistic depending on how the market takes the announcement.  Please note I do not refer to what the announcement says as its content and the market reaction are quite often two different things.

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/07 !  02/08 !  02/09 !  02/10 !  02/11 !  02/12 !  02/13 !  02/14 !  02/15 ! Currencies considered

  MtGOX      |  58.89 |  26.82 |  23.48 |  50.07 |  18.70 |  25.21 |  33.85 |  79.56 |  60.15 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY
  Bitstamp   |  42.79 |  13.50 |  15.06 |  71.86 |  40.06 |  15.51 |  28.15 |  63.38 |  20.76 | USD
  BitFinEx   |  66.36 |  11.12 |  12.07 |  41.98 |  39.54 |  12.85 |  17.17 |  53.68 |  10.83 | USD
  BTC-e      |  31.84 |  11.67 |  12.51 |  47.04 |  28.64 |   9.97 |  18.53 |  52.18 |   9.16 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   1.45 |   0.37 |   0.45 |   1.45 |   1.11 |   0.58 |   0.93 |   1.79 |   0.41 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   1.30 |   0.37 |   0.47 |   1.54 |   0.67 |   0.51 |   0.78 |   1.63 |   0.22 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   1.07 |   0.57 |   0.23 |   0.77 |   0.53 |   0.29 |   0.41 |   1.16 |   0.15 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.82 |   0.27 |   0.24 |   0.37 |   0.11 |   0.10 |   0.21 |   0.41 |   0.05 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   | 204.52 |  64.69 |  64.51 | 215.08 | 129.36 |  65.02 | 100.03 | 253.79 | 101.73 |

  Huobi      | 131.91 |  77.00 |  64.08 | 134.09 | 120.08 | 131.86 |  82.39 | 236.27 | 122.80 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  74.37 |  37.63 |  34.63 |  70.49 |  64.22 |  60.79 |  62.49 | 147.26 |  51.45 | CNY
  BTC-China  |  17.66 |   6.86 |   5.75 |  18.23 |  11.17 |  11.01 |   8.02 |  24.87 |   7.55 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.51 |   0.26 |   0.33 |   0.85 |   0.76 |   0.69 |   0.65 |   1.54 |   0.74 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 224.45 | 121.75 | 104.79 | 223.66 | 196.23 | 204.35 | 153.55 | 409.94 | 182.54 |

  TOTAL      | 428.97 | 186.44 | 169.30 | 438.74 | 325.59 | 269.37 | 253.58 | 663.73 | 284.27 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

The exchange Bter was added to Bitcoinwisdom's menu on 2014-02-15; its volumes for 02/07 to 02/14 have been added
retroactively to the table.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[KFR]

Saying that malleability is an issue is no different than saying that buggy code is an issue.  It's an issue if you let it become an issue.

There is a million ways to fuck something up no matter how many rules you put into place.  Besides, at what point do rules become something that are meant to be broken.

The simple fact is that GOX either mistakenly or purposely ran buggy code that allowed some people to get rich at the expense of some unlucky bag-holders.

Instead of talking about malleability issues people should be asking where the fuck is my money period.

A minor nit but transaction malleability was not a bug; it was a documented yet debatably undesirable feature of the Bitcoin design.  I can't really argue with the rest of it. 

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge
May I respectfully suggest your prediction will be right (but for the wrong reason).

The market is currently balanced and awaiting Monday's Mt Gox announcement which will likely occur at 7pm Japan time.  Your prediction occurs before then accordingly it is reasonable to anticipate that the market will continue to walk the current tightrope until an announcement is made at which point it will go ballistic depending on how the market takes the announcement.  Please note I do not refer to what the announcement says as its content and the market reaction are quite often two different things.

Thanks for your thoughts. I find your analysis plausible.  We saw what happened last Monday.

The only claim that the Slumber Method makes is that 19:00 UTC is the best time to use when trying to infer the general multi-day  trend, if it exists.  It can't help when there is no such trend.

I believe that the market itself cannot remember what it did more than a couple of hours ago; so I assume that any multi-day trend  must be driven by some external variable.  As I discussed before, I saw some clear trends over the last two weeks, which I would ascribe to changes in the total amount of CNY that people are confortable to leave in the exchange overnight.  That amount and the price were constant during the holiday week, then started to decay exponentially towards some limit as the banks opened.  The (First?) Karpeles Catastrophe presumably caused a sudden lump exodus, after which the decaying trend continued.  Then the swings of the past two days may have brought some investors back to the game, hence the new trend starting higher and flat.

We will see.

[smiley123]

Careful with Kraken, they only allow BTC deposit and withdrawal from the U.S. no fiat yet.  I like what they have to offer, but they are not there yet.

Is that a US-specific?  I've used them to SEPA deposit Euros and withdrew BTC all on the same day twice this week.  

Yes, euros work great, but they are still working on regulation for the US.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

wow dat false alert on Gox... some people reacted a little bit too much considering dat hoax on reddit.  FOOLS

[JorgeStolfi]

"Balaji Srinivasan at Startup School 2013" is a glimpse of the future, in my opinion. This is relevant to your post. I hope you take the time to watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A

Thanks, quite interesting.