Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Pompliano 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano — co-founder of crypto asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Assets — predicts bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-75-confident-bitcoin-price-is-100-000-by-end-of-2021

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1146707848279150592

Being 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021 equals being 100% Confident Bitcoin Price is $75,000 by End of 2021?
Serious question.
Asking for a friend.

No. it does not.
If someone like statistics, mic's Q3 game median is at about 17.7K right now.
Wisdom of the crowds?

[rdbase]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

[d_eddie]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

[fillippone]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

[Biodom]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Bitcoin tracker one (CXBTF) continues to experience regulator-induced difficulties trading in US despite the fact that is has been trading in Sweden for years already with nary a problem.
That vehicle has no premium to NAV in comparison with Barry Silbert 's concoctions that trade with high premiums (GBTC and ETHE).
Who said that US regulators play a fair game? Maybe we should ask Bra-Arg game referee?

[VB1001]

Bny Mellon / Crypto's Next Act

“We’re seeing the convergence of investor demand for digital assets alongside regulatory certainty, which we believe is being driven by the advent of more infrastructure to support access and trust in this market. ”

https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/what-we-do/markets/aerial-view-magazine/cryptos-next-act.jsp

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1146426614579900416

[d_eddie]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?

[fillippone]

So these are not just futures but it will allow them to settle in physical bitcoin?
This would mean it is no longer just a bet on the price of bitcoin but it is actually a buy and sell of it.
https://www.coindesk.com/td-ameritrade-backed-erisx-gets-green-light-to-settle-futures-in-bitcoin

Some have a difficult time trying to grasp the concept of what they are trying to do.
Until now a physical settlement has not been allowed because the cftc was not convinced any wall street firm could hold on to bitcoin safely within these so called custodial services.  Hence this is another move forward on the development of the bitcoin infrastructure and ecosystem.

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?

Yes, but it's like any other future.
No difference.
So the difference might be or in the liquidity of the underlying or in an unfair bias of the regulators (see above message about CXBTF)

[d_eddie]

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?

Yes, but it's like any other future.
No difference.

Like any other future settled in kind, which is uncommon for most futures. This would lead to actual btc changing hands. I thinks it matters and does make a definite difference.

So the difference might be or in the liquidity of the underlying or in an unfair bias of the regulators (see above message about CXBTF)

Ah! You speak from a regulatory standpoint? I was looking more at the possible effects on the btc market.

[fillippone]

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?

Yes, but it's like any other future.
No difference.

Like any other future settled in kind, which is uncommon for most futures. This would lead to actual btc changing hands. I thinks it matters and does make a definite difference.

Commodity future (closest to BTC future, I think) are physically settled futures.

So the difference might be or in the liquidity of the underlying or in an unfair bias of the regulators (see above message about CXBTF)

Ah! You speak from a regulatory standpoint? I was looking more at the possible effects on the btc market.

Oh , sorry, Yes, this clarifies misunderstandings. Yes.
I guess futures are net positive on BTC market as gates for institutional money, not because futures per se.

[VB1001]

Bitcoin CME Futures’ price action plays a key role in predicting spot prices for BTC

Bitcoin was built as a tool that would provide respite from fiat, but it is also being used as a speculative asset for trading. Institutions like CME, CBOE, Grayscale, etc have developed products based on Bitcoin’s price movements for investors who do not want to risk it.

Bitcoin CME Futures has been gaining a lot of traction and is being used as a tool to help traders understand the correlation between Bitcoin spot prices and futures markets.

https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-cme-futures-price-action-plays-a-key-role-in-predicting-spot-prices-for-btc/

Curious the relationship as the gaps fill.

[Hueristic]

Coinbase depth looking oversold

This "correction" starts to smell fishy to me. It all started with 800 BTC sell on CB that caused the crash from 13880. There is something suspicious in the way the sells are executed in CB in the last few days. Each time Bitstamp shows buying activity, some fat sell order on CB brings down the price with 3-4%. It looks as if some whale was in a hurry to unload tens of thousands of bitcoins in 11-13K area. And of course the weak hands follow with their panic sells. It may as well be a coordinated bears effort to look like the 2018 long and nasty crashes, but it happens too quickly.  They may try to produce an awful chart, so that trolls will explain how Bitcoin is doomed. But at the same time they hope to cheat the n00bs to sell their precious coins before the halving. If some trolls are telling us that Bitcoin won't go beyond the ATH, they are lying. They know it as much as we do!

Fuck Coinbase, those pieces of shit had the nerve to send me a questionnaire the other day after I started the KYC then said fuck that when I saw the questions they ask.

The Questionnaire asked "on a 0 to 10 scale what is the chance you would recommend coinbase to your friends. I of course chose 0 (or maybe it was one I forget already) and then it asked why and I wrote "My forefathers gave their lives ensuring the liberties of the American people from tyranny and you are doing everything you can to undo their work. FUCK YOU".

I don't see what would be the point to burn bridges.  If you have an account, and now you no longer want an account, is that what you were doing?  In my book, it's usually preferable to attempt to keep your options open.

My coinbase account has been around forever and I have never done the KYC they now require, comprehende?

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon. We are moving sideways and I am happy with that.

Observing @ $11,780

[Hueristic]

^^^--- Damn I'm far behind, I need to find a JSRAW recap/

^ sorry bro i skipped last week posts as well because i was traveling, almost 90+ page

But i did notice some old interesting posts. you were active during that time, i guess?

BTC pump

1. lots of memes, i mean alooooot!!
2. Mic shooting at the wall with pee's pic.( Meanwhile Kenzawak having Breakfast)
3. serveria.com suggest 100K party venue and he seems to be excited when mic post pee's pic.
4. Mr gembitz pops up
5. fillippone's ikea post and lambo wish (+1 to Italian stallion )
6. @everyone has interesting story - sold bitcoin for this -that- ( not me i am new)
7. Infofront locks the WO, every one panics- V8 opens new thread- Theymos saves the day
8. Searing,JoJo, JJG : Tulip Traiangle
9. Bob+Rick+ranch = happy family
10. JJG still offtopic -talking about BTC- ( Dude reads every post, i must say)
11. Hueristic struggling to keep up with WO
12. long time lurkers on the floor - Welcome Ladies-
13. r0ach's wisdom about Multiculturalism. ( on funny note " ladies When you go brown, other colors let you down "
14. kenzawak, LFC_Bitcoin, Pamoldar = 44,33,37
15. JimboToronto : Consistent with his post (Good morning-observing BTC in CAD )
16. MrFreeRoMan got Banned sadly
17. Biodom's approach to Child upbringing - Very Asian-Indian in good way-
18. nutildah & micman - HANGOVER 4 ( no comment on outcome )
19. Gysur is back
20 Bromance inbetween Hueristic and JJG
21. r0ach's point of view on diet-exercise ( i agree)
22. 2 kids talking about age then Legends comes.
23. Yes, Legend has a name "JimboToronto"
24. jbreher is travelling i suppose?
25. gentlemand says and i quote "The rich stay rich by acting poor. The poor stay poor by acting rich." well said sir!! now please give Kohinoor back
26. JJG's travel plans.
27. Arriemoller still reading book and not updating anyone.


Log till page 24311
Then I jump directly at page 24407

1. Loyse -fillippone - data = love traingle
2. Dont know who Stolfi is?
3. realr0ach being creative with name calling
4. Btc prediction q2 over = 11,262 (winner didn't claim the price money, s/he/it forget his alt account's PW )
5. Kenzawak says and i quote "Fuck is my favorite English word." wish i can translate this word in Hindi,punjabi,urdu
6. Failed haiku attempt here and there.
7.  Cricket - England wins, India lost.
8. nutildah says " fuck, fucked up my fuck table"  humping table? dont know
9. proudhon - hon is not proud-
10. oh, JJG talking to himself here sorry bhai
11. Banter inbetween Gyrsur, JJG and Mic
12. BTCDump is always manipulation and uptrend is organic growth
13. Sex robots replacing Men by 2050
  


In short, can't help much with last week backlog. sorry  

thanks man, I completely missed all the Bolded, and the strikeout doesn't matter!

Thats funny somone tried to cheat and use an Alt account and forgot the PW. Karma baby.

[JayJuanGee]

Pompliano 75% Confident Bitcoin Price is $100,000 by End of 2021

Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano — co-founder of crypto asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Assets — predicts bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of 2021.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pompliano-75-confident-bitcoin-price-is-100-000-by-end-of-2021

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1146707848279150592

Assigning 75% confidence to that level would put bitcoin's present value a whole hell of a lot higher, for someone like that, and it could lead to very foolish behaviors, perhaps?

It is a pretty high allocation of probabilities, and seemingly overly exuberant, from my view.

On the other hand, if you have those levels of confidence, but you still act prudently with your money, then you actions seem to be a bit out of line with your beliefs even if you have that kind of expectation that the value of your stash is going to go up more than 8x in 2 years.   Could be that your other behaviors become less rash, too, because you kind of take it for granted that you are going to be around 8x richer in a bit more than 2 years...?

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

So most of us know that we are going to very close to $14k soon?

[Hueristic]

Bitcoin CME Futures’ price action plays a key role in predicting spot prices for BTC

Bitcoin was built as a tool that would provide respite from fiat, but it is also being used as a speculative asset for trading. Institutions like CME, CBOE, Grayscale, etc have developed products based on Bitcoin’s price movements for investors who do not want to risk it.

Bitcoin CME Futures has been gaining a lot of traction and is being used as a tool to help traders understand the correlation between Bitcoin spot prices and futures markets.

https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-cme-futures-price-action-plays-a-key-role-in-predicting-spot-prices-for-btc/

Curious the relationship as the gaps fill.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

XRP SOON ABOVE 60$ ?!

My ass LOL

XRP total supply = 99,991,588,101

$60 each XRP means $5,999,495,286,060

Do they have any idea about what they talk?

[Hueristic]

Indeed if settling in bitcoin, it is necessary that both parts hold as much physical bitcoin as necessary. Otherwise, with sufficient volatility, insolvency will ensue. That's one of the reasons I think in-kind ETFs and derivatives are medium term bullish AF.

Not necessary the case.
The future can be settled in bitcoin.
Daily margining can be done with cash.
In case of Bakkt futures are only 1 day forward, so marining or variation not a problem.
Not sure about Erisx, couldn't find product specifications.
Not so bearish on EFT or other BTC-related Derivatives then.

All right, then edit my previous response: maybe not "hold as much physical btc", but "be ready to buy, and actually buy if necessary, as much physical btc as necessary, at whatever price it takes (market buy)", which is nearly the same thing even if collateral is posted as fiat (which I doubt anyway).

Does this sound right?

Yes, but it's like any other future.
No difference.

Like any other future settled in kind, which is uncommon for most futures. This would lead to actual btc changing hands. I thinks it matters and does make a definite difference.

Commodity future (closest to BTC future, I think) are physically settled futures.

So the difference might be or in the liquidity of the underlying or in an unfair bias of the regulators (see above message about CXBTF)

Ah! You speak from a regulatory standpoint? I was looking more at the possible effects on the btc market.

Oh , sorry, Yes, this clarifies misunderstandings. Yes.
I guess futures are net positive on BTC market as gates for institutional money, not because futures per se.

Futures that don't settle in BTC are a scam as they don't reflect the iliquidity of the market or an asset that becomes rarer over time for that matter. Artificially adding liquidity does not help holders.

XRP SOON ABOVE 60$ ?!

My ass LOL

XRP total supply = 99,991,588,101

$60 each XRP means $5,999,495,286,060

Do they have any idea about what they talk?

No, but the retards that buy that shit have even less of a clue.

[JayJuanGee]

Coinbase depth looking oversold

This "correction" starts to smell fishy to me. It all started with 800 BTC sell on CB that caused the crash from 13880. There is something suspicious in the way the sells are executed in CB in the last few days. Each time Bitstamp shows buying activity, some fat sell order on CB brings down the price with 3-4%. It looks as if some whale was in a hurry to unload tens of thousands of bitcoins in 11-13K area. And of course the weak hands follow with their panic sells. It may as well be a coordinated bears effort to look like the 2018 long and nasty crashes, but it happens too quickly.  They may try to produce an awful chart, so that trolls will explain how Bitcoin is doomed. But at the same time they hope to cheat the n00bs to sell their precious coins before the halving. If some trolls are telling us that Bitcoin won't go beyond the ATH, they are lying. They know it as much as we do!

Fuck Coinbase, those pieces of shit had the nerve to send me a questionnaire the other day after I started the KYC then said fuck that when I saw the questions they ask.

The Questionnaire asked "on a 0 to 10 scale what is the chance you would recommend coinbase to your friends. I of course chose 0 (or maybe it was one I forget already) and then it asked why and I wrote "My forefathers gave their lives ensuring the liberties of the American people from tyranny and you are doing everything you can to undo their work. FUCK YOU".

I don't see what would be the point to burn bridges.  If you have an account, and now you no longer want an account, is that what you were doing?  In my book, it's usually preferable to attempt to keep your options open.

My coinbase account has been around forever and I have never done the KYC they now require, comprehende?

I even understood that point before your latest clarification post.  Go figure?

In other words, to me it sounds like you are both burning bridges and acting out with way too many emotion regarding such situation, but hey, that's your choice, of course.  Do what you like.