Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I  see we've held onto most of yesterday's splendid gains despite an $800 correction/retrace and are well over $12k... currently $12410USD/$16298CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

I'll stick with my prediction yesterday and say if we stay over $12k we'll see a new AYH by month's end.

Go Bitcoin go.

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

[yefi]

Should probably try reading fiction again to wordy my words a bit.

ftfy.

[wwzsocki]

that... or a pump that put us above 12500.
I´m here...observing 12532 and being happy.

Indeed we have already reached 12.000$ level and bounced back.

This is possible that BTC will move up further from now because everything looks strong and bullish but to be safe I would advise to observe the price very closely and watch for the best entry point.

There is no doubt that we are in a bull run and after this bounce, we will see BTC price going vertically up again.

[JayJuanGee]

I tend to agree with filbfilb's two likely scenarios, though they could end up being too conservative.



I'd rather see 175K in 2021 than 100K in 2020, but I don't really have a say in the matter. Hookers, blow, lambos, etc. all around either way.

Yeah, but you are also agreeing with a scenario that says down to about $6k levels before up, and such significant levels of down may or may not be in our current cards. What happens if our current level of down to $9,600 is already in?  How about that?  Would that stifle any upward move?  Maybe even causing upward to be more bullish, even though such a scenario would seem beyond our current expectations and seemingly unsustainable, right?

Is this filbfilb in the Tone Vays/Tyler Jenks hyperwave camp?  Those guys were saying down before UP too, when we were in the sub $4ks, and perhaps now, they have a back up "down before up" scenario that they would like to present, that may or may not happen, especially if we might have some decent upwards BTC price pressures that also might include BIGGER players wanting to come in... at least relatively BIGGER players in comparison to earlier stages of 2013 and 2017.

He's not part of the Tone Vays retard club. He posted that chart over a year ago. It shows a bottom between 3,300 and 5,000 at the beginning of 2019.

The fact that we're well above his projection for this point (about $6,000) may invalidate the chart. The chart may not be going high enough, quickly enough, or it could just be wrong altogether.

Surely, anyone attempting to engage in meaningful BTC price predictions should constantly be readjusting his/her chart legs to account for price performances that go in a direction or in an amount that was beyond the parameters of expectations.  

However, there might not be much if any need to adjust chart legs, if each of the legs is performing approximately in the amount and degree anticipated, which I would boil down to mostly strokes of luck rather than actual insight beyond being able to predict a a few moves in advance at most.  

Of course, longer term most of us BTC bulls anticipate largely UP based on BTC fundamentals rather than price momentum dynamics.

By the way, I don't really consider Vays or Jenks to be dumb merely because they seem to have been publicly and strongly wrong, which provides them as a kind of punching bag because of the level of their conviction rather than for some of the theoretical valid points that they were making.

On the other hand, some of these ideas of "down before up" seem to place too much emphasis on the need for down during what seems to be strong indications of s-curve exponential dynamics, which could take away some of the rationale for "down before up" even though we should always be prepared for at least some unexpected down, and surely once down starts to happen, then bear whales are likely going to attempt to take advantage and push downward momentum to the greatest extent that they could possibly manage, which ends up causing down to play out a lot worse than many of the HODLers and the UP betters would have incorporated into their psychological and financial preparations.

[JayJuanGee]

Something really strange happened today. I came home from work, hit the treadmill, then collapsed on the couch, exhausted and dizzy. I fell into a strange trancelike state. Suddenly, the sunlight coming in my windows turned bright red, and I heard a booming, almost deafening voice:

BEHOLD! I AM KARHU!

Me: WTF is going on...

SILENCE! YOU WILL LISTEN AND OBEY.

Me: Okay...

THE BLOOD OF THE BULLS HAS SATIATED MY HUNGER. I HAVE RETURNED, AND WITH MORE POWER THAN EVER BEFORE!

AFTER YEARS OF PAIN AND DARKNESS, I WILL NOW REWARD MY FOLLOWERS WITH ALL MY GLORY AND WONDER!

BUT FIRST, YOU SHALL BEAR WITNESS TO THE THREE SIGNS:

1. AFTER HIS LONG REIGN IN THIS WORLD, THE FEROCIOUS BEAR SPIRIT SHALL SHOW HIMSELF TO YOU IN HIS LLAMA FORM ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS THE OMEN OF HIS PASSING.

Me: A bear llama?

2. A GREAT MAYOR SHALL RETURN TO HIS PEOPLE. ONLY THEN WILL YOU BE PREPARED FOR WHAT'S TO COME.

3. WHEN THE VALUE OF THE MOONCOIN REACHES TEN THOUSAND SCORE, YOU WILL MAKE A FINAL SACRIFICE TO ME.

Me: You want us to sell our bitcoin at $100,000?

NO! I NOW DEMAND BEAR BLOOD.

Me: So you want us to buy more bitcoin at $100,000? That's crazy!

YOU MUST PROVE YOUR FAITH TO KARHU. ONLY THE MOST FAITHFUL AND RIGHTEOUS COINERS WILL BE REWARDED.

DO AS I COMMAND, AND I WILL BRING MY GLORIOUS BITCOIN KINGDOM UNTO YOU! EVERY FAITHFUL COINER SHALL RECEIVE 7 NASTY, FILTHY SLUTS. FOR EVERY RIGHTEOUS COINER, THE LAMBOS AND BLOW WILL FLOW LIKE WATER.

Me: That doesn't even make any sense.

SILENCE! NOW GO FORTH, AND DELIVER MY MESSAGE TO YOUR FELLOW WALL OBSERVERS!

At that point, I must've passed out. My wife found me asleep on the couch. I'm still trying to make sense of all this...

That's fucking crazy.

I especially don't like the 7 filthy slut limit.

I would rather have a limit on Lambos and blow, and let the filthy sluts flow.... so I am a bit disappointed with these skimpy quotas of riches.

Fuck, I just realized it was supposed to be 72 sluts.

You are a sloppy proof reader.   

Likely too much ayahuasca.   

[mindrust]

filbfilb is in a whole different league. Don't confuse him for retards like Tone Vays.

[serveria.com]

Something really strange happened today. I came home from work, hit the treadmill, then collapsed on the couch, exhausted and dizzy. I fell into a strange trancelike state. Suddenly, the sunlight coming in my windows turned bright red, and I heard a booming, almost deafening voice:

BEHOLD! I AM KARHU!

Me: WTF is going on...

SILENCE! YOU WILL LISTEN AND OBEY.

Me: Okay...

THE BLOOD OF THE BULLS HAS SATIATED MY HUNGER. I HAVE RETURNED, AND WITH MORE POWER THAN EVER BEFORE!

AFTER YEARS OF PAIN AND DARKNESS, I WILL NOW REWARD MY FOLLOWERS WITH ALL MY GLORY AND WONDER!

BUT FIRST, YOU SHALL BEAR WITNESS TO THE THREE SIGNS:

1. AFTER HIS LONG REIGN IN THIS WORLD, THE FEROCIOUS BEAR SPIRIT SHALL SHOW HIMSELF TO YOU IN HIS LLAMA FORM ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS THE OMEN OF HIS PASSING.

Me: A bear llama?

2. A GREAT MAYOR SHALL RETURN TO HIS PEOPLE. ONLY THEN WILL YOU BE PREPARED FOR WHAT'S TO COME.

3. WHEN THE VALUE OF THE MOONCOIN REACHES TEN THOUSAND SCORE, YOU WILL MAKE A FINAL SACRIFICE TO ME.

Me: You want us to sell our bitcoin at $100,000?

NO! I NOW DEMAND BEAR BLOOD.

Me: So you want us to buy more bitcoin at $100,000? That's crazy!

YOU MUST PROVE YOUR FAITH TO KARHU. ONLY THE MOST FAITHFUL AND RIGHTEOUS COINERS WILL BE REWARDED.

DO AS I COMMAND, AND I WILL BRING MY GLORIOUS BITCOIN KINGDOM UNTO YOU! EVERY FAITHFUL COINER SHALL RECEIVE 7 NASTY, FILTHY SLUTS. FOR EVERY RIGHTEOUS COINER, THE LAMBOS AND BLOW WILL FLOW LIKE WATER.

Me: That doesn't even make any sense.

SILENCE! NOW GO FORTH, AND DELIVER MY MESSAGE TO YOUR FELLOW WALL OBSERVERS!

At that point, I must've passed out. My wife found me asleep on the couch. I'm still trying to make sense of all this...

That's fucking crazy.

I especially don't like the 7 filthy slut limit.

I would rather have a limit on Lambos and blow, and let the filthy sluts flow.... so I am a bit disappointed with these skimpy quotas of riches.

Fuck, I just realized it was supposed to be 72 sluts.

This is some seriously funny shit   

[El duderino_]

Corn ..... I would say.... just do it the Corn-ish way

[Agapios]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

[kurious]

Taking the favourite wife on a big blow-out trip. see you in ~3 weeks

Good man. All the best to you both, enjoy yourselves.

[JimboToronto]

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

The Jays are doing about as well as expected in a rebuilding year with a team consisting mostly of rookies. 2 of the 3 highly-touted  sons-of-superstars prospects have already been brought up (Guerrero and Biggio) and are already excelling. The 3rd, Bo Bichette is waiting in the wings.

Last night Guerrero showed the rest of the world why we consider him the cornerstone on which we'll build our next championship team. His performance in the home run derby was historic, setting all-time records for the most home runs in the opening round, the semifinal round and overall. He may have lost the final round but he still stole the show.

Without making excuses for him, it should be noted that he was exhausted after doing a full extra round and 2 additional swing-offs in the semifinals, while the eventual winner got to rest up by facing weaker opponents in the first 2 rounds and quitting early due to batting second.
The night truly belonged to Vladi.

In the real world of the AL, Guerrero is still making adjustments. After an initial splash that saw him being named player of the week a couple of weeks in, opponents have stopped throwing fastballs to him. Once he masters hitting big-league breaking balls, watch out. The guy can flat-out hit. He has always hit for a high average and has incredible innate power and an amazing eye. He should be a consistent 4-digit OPS guy and a perennial MVP candidate.

The rest of the Jays' young core are progressing nicely as well. After a slow start and a trip to the minors, Lourdes Gurriel Jr has been among the league's offensive leaders and his move to left field has yielded immediate dividends. After a series of outfield assists, other teams are learning not to run on him. Rookie catcher Danny Jansen has been consistently solid behind the plate and has recently started hitting more consistently. Rowdy Tellez, Randall Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez have also shown better-than-average defense and power at the plate but the latter is still striking out too much.

The reason for the Jays' dismal record is their pitching. The only reliable starter has been Marcus Stroman (with almost no run support) while Giles, Hudson and Biagini have been solid in the bullpen. Everyone else has pretty much sucked.

Pitching is what wins ballgames and the Jays don't have it yet. Hopefully by the time the young core gels and a few young pitching prospects develop, the team will add some solid veteran starters and bullpen arms to make a run for it. Until then they seem content to save money by throwing out other teams' washed-up scrubs and rejects.

As I said, it's a rebuilding year and as such, it can be painful to watch at times.

[kurious]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

[_javi_]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

What hurts me more is the BTC count going down in Blockfolio app, even with a basket of coins being 96% BTC.
But then i see the usd total value, and i smile again..

[bkbirge]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

[AlexGR]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

And XRP is included without even being a crypto...

[sirazimuth]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

[ivomm]

I am pretty sure shitton of people will be unloading their stashes like there is no tomorrow when btc starts to go above $50k. Not many will be left to hodl a full piece when it hits $100k.

When BTC goes above $100k and hits $1m, those who sold from $50k will be very sorry unless they owned and dumped at least 20 btc.

Yes, people tend to sell as if there is no tomorrow. We saw that when we reached the modest price 13800. People started selling so heavily that the profit turned into a loss for many. Only a day after the 13800, they kept selling down to 9700! We've seen many such crashes in 2017 and they all ended with 25%+ recovery. The next day it happened! We were back above 11K. I can only imagine how stupid those weak hands felt!

In the same way, we may have such crashes at any price level if the increase is too steep for a short time. We may fall from 50K to 30K for a day, and on the next day to be at 40K, and in 2 weeks above 50K. It could take longer, of course. It could take even a year, like in 2018. This won't be pleasant at all, of course. But if that is the price for becoming a millionaire, so be it!

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

And finally, if someone truly loves Bitcoin, he won't be happy to sell all of them and to stop watching the price. It just doesn't work. He will learn one way or another. After 5 years, when he spent  all of his fiat money, and hears on the news that Bitcoin reached a record heights 10x, 100x or more than the exit price, that feeling will kill all the joy he had when he sold them. Especially, if he has kids, who now have no money for a college or a medical treatment. My point is that we have to think in perspective - not for the next day, month, or year, but for a generation ahead. We have to be very careful what we sell and what we leave for the years to come. I've been thinking about it for 2 years and still don't have a clear and sound plan. I have to wait at least a year and see what will be the price after the next halving. Then I can make a better plan. And hopefully, my emotions won't interfere to sell most of it way too early! The other hard thing is to live with a profit that changes both ways by tens (hundreds, etc.) of thousands each day. That is no easy too! But this is our occupational hazard!

[JimboToronto]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

No, we don't "all know" what will happen.

If history is any guide, the bubble top will be a year or so after the halving and BTC winter will be a year or 2 after that.

[kurious]

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

What hurts me more is the BTC count going down in Blockfolio app, even with a basket of coins being 96% BTC.
But then i see the usd total value, and i smile again..

I kept a bit more than 4% alts, since I managed (way back) to trade the majority of them into profit, meaning the ones I've kept are at zero cost. 

Last bull run, I didn't sell my BTC, I sold alts for BTC and cashed out some $ that way.  So, it didn't particularly worry me to keep them and wait for the next 'alt season' this time around.

Yes, they have increased in $ terms, but I still feel I lost out by not flipping 'em over to BTC when I should have, of course. 

Rationally, they have still made more money than I could have made on anything else outside of crypto. So I know I really cannot complain.  But irrationally - knowing how much more it 'could have been' makes it a strangely annoying place to be in.

I guess it's proof of loss aversion theory; we all fear losing money more than we enjoy making it.

[JayJuanGee]

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?