Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jonoiv]

..........
20. jonoiv not gonna happen bro
....

you 100% or just 99% sure?

Looks like you are lacking a decent amount of confidence too, jonoiv, if you are willing to only shave 1% off of the certainty level.

Personally, I would concede that the odds of BTC reaching another low in this cycle (thus breaking below $3,122) would likely be at least 15%.  Of course, if you are suggesting lower numbers than that, then the odds would be lower, depending on how low is your prognostication.  I thought that I had seen you suggesting levels in the $1k area which is likely getting us to below 3% odds, and I am not sure if I would even go to 1% or lower odds, until maybe we start to talk about below $500....  In any event, it is difficult to place a number on it, and you seem to be conceding that your ideas are pie in the sky which should suggest that we should not even be entertaining them at all because why the fuck would we be planning our lives (or our BTC investments) around 1% scenarios?  makes sense?

I'm never 100% sure of anything. As you might know im not clearvoyant. But to put odds on it, is't really relivant, odds are fluid, so if the price hits 8.5k this month, the odds of 6k shorten.
for the record i didn't personally suggest 1K area that was just an elliot wave theory from some dude that predicted 13500 top.  He was quite close so his work got my attension.
Personally suggested 2.6k might be the bottom, based on my own TA.  But if it hits 2.6k then 1k's arn't too far away, but i would probably Hodl from 3k.  

My main reasons for thinking this way is that it's happened in the past and, I don't trust that the current prices or any historical prices are organic, that they're heavily manipulated, and underhand tactics used to make people make bad choices about when to sell or buy.  

You might go on about me being paranoid again...but.

[jonoiv]

Go to some years ago Bitcoin price July 2010 $0.008–$0.08 Do you think it will go back to the previous place?
Suppose one day Bitcoin price dropdown 1Bitcoin=$0.01  So what would you feel?

As explained before it frequently does with fat fingered whales not checking order books before dumping or due to bot errors ect.


kracken a few weeks ago 100 USD
coinbase april 2017 0.06 USD
Stamp June 2016 1.50 USD
Bithump Oct 2017 500 USD
Bitfinex feb 2014 100 USD

[JayJuanGee]

Go to some years ago Bitcoin price July 2010 $0.008–$0.08 Do you think it will go back to the previous place?
Suppose one day Bitcoin price dropdown 1Bitcoin=$0.01  So what would you feel?

You are talking fantasy... why should we entertain such whimsical unlikely scenarios...

Snap back to reality, and more realistic discussions..

First of all, like I already mentioned, the odds are pretty high that the bottom of $3,122 for this cycle is already in, so if we start getting close to $3,122 then your dumbass pie in the sky lower scenarios would become more plausible...

Focus..... Negotiation... focus.

[Negotiation]

Go to some years ago Bitcoin price July 2010 $0.008–$0.08 Do you think it will go back to the previous place?
Suppose one day Bitcoin price dropdown 1Bitcoin=$0.01  So what would you feel?

You are talking fantasy... why should we entertain such whimsical unlikely scenarios...

Snap back to reality, and more realistic discussions..

First of all, like I already mentioned, the odds are pretty high that the bottom of $3,122 for this cycle is already in, so if we start getting close to $3,122 then your dumbass pie in the sky lower scenarios would become more plausible...

Focus..... Negotiation... focus.

Yes sir But then middle on 2018 had few lower support zone Bitcoin $2800, $2600, $2400, $2200... but not break down $3000 the going Up.

[JayJuanGee]

..........
20. jonoiv not gonna happen bro
....

you 100% or just 99% sure?

Looks like you are lacking a decent amount of confidence too, jonoiv, if you are willing to only shave 1% off of the certainty level.

Personally, I would concede that the odds of BTC reaching another low in this cycle (thus breaking below $3,122) would likely be at least 15%.  Of course, if you are suggesting lower numbers than that, then the odds would be lower, depending on how low is your prognostication.  I thought that I had seen you suggesting levels in the $1k area which is likely getting us to below 3% odds, and I am not sure if I would even go to 1% or lower odds, until maybe we start to talk about below $500....  In any event, it is difficult to place a number on it, and you seem to be conceding that your ideas are pie in the sky which should suggest that we should not even be entertaining them at all because why the fuck would we be planning our lives (or our BTC investments) around 1% scenarios?  makes sense?

I'm never 100% sure of anything. As you might know im not clearvoyant. But to put odds on it, is't really relivant, odds are fluid, so if the price hits 8.5k this month, the odds of 6k shorten.
for the record i didn't personally suggest 1K area that was just an elliot wave theory from some dude that predicted 13500 top.  He was quite close so his work got my attension.
Personally suggested 2.6k might be the bottom, based on my own TA.  But if it hits 2.6k then 1k's arn't too far away, but i would probably Hodl from 3k.  

My main reasons for thinking this way is that it's happened in the past and, I don't trust that the current prices or any historical prices are organic, that they're heavily manipulated, and underhand tactics used to make people make bad choices about when to sell or buy.  

You might go on about me being paranoid again...but.

Yes.. you are correct that the lower the price goes, then the higher the odds become that the price will go lower, yet we still need to deal with from where we currently are at, so perhaps you might even be wiling to concede that from here perhaps going below $3,122 has odds of about 15% or so, and yes, I would concede that the odds for going to $2,600 would not be much different than the odds for $3,122 because once we get to $3,122, if we were to get there, then there could likely be enough momentum to get to $2,600 so from here, maybe we might only shave off a percentage or two in order to reach $2,600... but I will suggest that $1k is in a bit harder to reach territory, as I already said.. maybe in the 3% territory.  On the other hand, if we get to $3,122 then the odds of reaching any of the lower prices become higher, but we would have to get there first, so seems like a BIG ass waste of time to be exploring variations of these kinds of pie in the sky scenarios when we are not even heading in that direction, yet.  Like you said, gotta break below $10k again, and then $8,500 and then $7k and then $4,200... so there are quite a few spots in which the buy support would be much stronger than anything that the bearwhales could throw at it.

Your dumb ass statement that "it has happened in the past" seems to be a bit out of context, because you seem to be just trying to assert that such a downward event, at this time, is more likely than it is... and currently we happen to be in a bull market, so show the exact comparison that you are suggesting if you want to seriously entertain "it has happened in the past" baloney.

[JayJuanGee]

Go to some years ago Bitcoin price July 2010 $0.008–$0.08 Do you think it will go back to the previous place?
Suppose one day Bitcoin price dropdown 1Bitcoin=$0.01  So what would you feel?

You are talking fantasy... why should we entertain such whimsical unlikely scenarios...

Snap back to reality, and more realistic discussions..

First of all, like I already mentioned, the odds are pretty high that the bottom of $3,122 for this cycle is already in, so if we start getting close to $3,122 then your dumbass pie in the sky lower scenarios would become more plausible...

Focus..... Negotiation... focus.

Yes sir But then middle on 2018 had few lower support zone Bitcoin $2800, $2600, $2400, $2200... but not break down $3000 the going Up.

We are not in mid-2018 anymore. 

Have you looked at the BTC price chart, recently?

Snap out of it Negotiation.

[WinslowIII]

I think the odds of revisiting $3122 are way lower than 15%. The halving is less than a year away, do you really think enough idiots are holding enough btc to make that happen at this point?
And I'd seriously question anyone who would quote a multimillionaire rock star who had it all who put a shotgun to his head at 27 years old. That was some seriously fucked up dude.

[jonoiv]

..........
20. jonoiv not gonna happen bro
....

you 100% or just 99% sure?

Looks like you are lacking a decent amount of confidence too, jonoiv, if you are willing to only shave 1% off of the certainty level.

Personally, I would concede that the odds of BTC reaching another low in this cycle (thus breaking below $3,122) would likely be at least 15%.  Of course, if you are suggesting lower numbers than that, then the odds would be lower, depending on how low is your prognostication.  I thought that I had seen you suggesting levels in the $1k area which is likely getting us to below 3% odds, and I am not sure if I would even go to 1% or lower odds, until maybe we start to talk about below $500....  In any event, it is difficult to place a number on it, and you seem to be conceding that your ideas are pie in the sky which should suggest that we should not even be entertaining them at all because why the fuck would we be planning our lives (or our BTC investments) around 1% scenarios?  makes sense?

I'm never 100% sure of anything. As you might know im not clearvoyant. But to put odds on it, is't really relivant, odds are fluid, so if the price hits 8.5k this month, the odds of 6k shorten.
for the record i didn't personally suggest 1K area that was just an elliot wave theory from some dude that predicted 13500 top.  He was quite close so his work got my attension.
Personally suggested 2.6k might be the bottom, based on my own TA.  But if it hits 2.6k then 1k's arn't too far away, but i would probably Hodl from 3k.  

My main reasons for thinking this way is that it's happened in the past and, I don't trust that the current prices or any historical prices are organic, that they're heavily manipulated, and underhand tactics used to make people make bad choices about when to sell or buy.  

You might go on about me being paranoid again...but.

Yes.. you are correct that the lower the price goes, then the higher the odds become that the price will go lower, yet we still need to deal with from where we currently are at, so perhaps you might even be wiling to concede that from here perhaps going below $3,122 has odds of about 15% or so, and yes, I would concede that the odds for going to $2,600 would not be much different than the odds for $3,122 because once we get to $3,122, if we were to get there, then there could likely be enough momentum to get to $2,600 so from here, maybe we might only shave off a percentage or two in order to reach $2,600... but I will suggest that $1k is in a bit harder to reach territory, as I already said.. maybe in the 3% territory.  On the other hand, if we get to $3,122 then the odds of reaching any of the lower prices become higher, but we would have to get there first, so seems like a BIG ass waste of time to be exploring variations of these kinds of pie in the sky scenarios when we are not even heading in that direction, yet.  Like you said, gotta break below $10k again, and then $8,500 and then $7k and then $4,200... so there are quite a few spots in which the buy support would be much stronger than anything that the bearwhales could throw at it.

Your dumb ass statement that "it has happened in the past" seems to be a bit out of context, because you seem to be just trying to assert that such a downward event, at this time, is more likely than it is... and currently we happen to be in a bull market, so show the exact comparison that you are suggesting if you want to seriously entertain "it has happened in the past" baloney.

That's my whole point I don't think we are.  I think it's the bull phase of a bear market and it's just turned back to the bear market in the larger bear market.  Phase C as iv'e said countless times over.

[HairyMaclairy]

This dip should go no lower than about $10,690, based on a bounce off the 30 MA daily.

[Negotiation]

Yes sir But then middle on 2018 had few lower support zone Bitcoin $2800, $2600, $2400, $2200... but not break down $3000 the going Up.

We are not in mid-2018 anymore. 

Have you looked at the BTC price chart, recently?

Snap out of it Negotiation.


[/quote]

Sorry I just see upper level $20k, $30k, $50k, $80k+ talking people many places saying the issue  Bitcoin Halving.
but have not idea top of the upper-level other side market trend is going up so normally said that $20k+ easily possible.

[Biodom]

This dip should go no lower than about $10,690.  

Something "interesting" happened to the "fork".
it suddenly declined 20%.

Additionally, bitcoin, as an asset, has one weakness: it is too darn volatile for something that has above 200 bil market cap, just look at the last two weeks..

[Hueristic]

You feeling a little safer Elwar?

Getting better. Nadia and I got married and we're moving on with our lives.

Great news!

Shit I can't keep up here at all lately.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeBruno/status/1146853754458857472

Name a movie you've seen more than five times

Shawshank Redemption is my best choice. For understanding the key word of the film, I read the book Different.Seasons which the film is based on.
I know the patience is very very very important, especially as a small btcholder.

Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Terminator
Highlamder
Bladerunner
Road Warrior
Lock stock and 2 smoking Barrels
Matrix
Doom
Fight Club
Lord of the Rings
IronMan

Well thats about all I remember.

Yes sir But then middle on 2018 had few lower support zone Bitcoin $2800, $2600, $2400, $2200... but not break down $3000 the going Up.

We are not in mid-2018 anymore. 

Have you looked at the BTC price chart, recently?

Snap out of it Negotiation.

You have this one on speedial. 

[Saint-loup]

This dip should go no lower than about $10,690, based on a bounce off the 30 MA daily.

So for you we can break the 11k ?  
Does anyone understand why BTC is currently so volatile? What's the reason for all these pump&dumps?  

[HairyMaclairy]

Does anyone understand why BTC is currently so volatile? What's the reason of all these pump&dumps?  

This is Bitcoin.

Additionally, bitcoin, as an asset, has one weakness: it is too darn volatile for something that has above 200 bil market cap, just look at the last two weeks..

The market cap of the SP500 is 24 trillion and it declined 24% between 1 October and Christmas day

/fucksnotgiven

[Hueristic]

This dip should go no lower than about $10,690.  

Something "interesting" happened to the "fork".
it suddenly declined 20%.

Additionally, bitcoin, as an asset, has one weakness: it is too darn volatile for something that has above 200 bil market cap, just look at the last two weeks..

1BTC==1BTC, Fiat is too volatile!

Yes...or are you still using the mouse that came in the Holstein motif Gateway box that your Pentium III came in?

I resemble that remark. I have moved up/down to the IBM Model M keyboard. Buckling spring clacker. Run it through the dishwasher a couple of times a decade as needed.

More info here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_M_keyboard

I used that one (had a big pile) with AT-ps/2 adapter until a few years (wow decade now that I think about it) that I've needed a cordless. I miss hitting enter one the end and not having the keyboard tip, those things were lethal weapons.

[jonoiv]

This dip should go no lower than about $10,690. 

Something "interesting" happened to the "fork".
it suddenly declined 20%.

Additionally, bitcoin, as an asset, has one weakness: it is too darn volatile for something that has above 200 bil market cap, just look at the last two weeks..

1BTC==1BTC, Fiat is too volatile!

But until 99% of goods n sevices are pegged to bitcoin...

$1 will still more or less buy you the same tomorrow.

[Negotiation]

So for you we can break the 11k ?  
Does anyone understand why BTC is currently so volatile? What's the reason for all these pump&dumps?  

I think bitcoin is currently caught in a falling wedge formation which is a bullish pattern, when BTC price breaks out I think it will be to the upside with targets around 12k to 12.6k. We still need to hit top of wedge and get a retrace before there is confirmation that we are in a descending wedge but something to watch out for. I think we will bottom around $9500 and then we will shoot up between July 4th and July 6th, so pay attention to those dates. I think once we reach 12.5k we will top out then start our slow descent downward before we have our next major capitulation in early August. I also go over current price action, short term and long term and show when and how high the peak of our next bull run will be.

Video source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVAyN7Dprsk

Edited.

[Biodom]

Does anyone understand why BTC is currently so volatile? What's the reason of all these pump&dumps?  

This is Bitcoin.

Additionally, bitcoin, as an asset, has one weakness: it is too darn volatile for something that has above 200 bil market cap, just look at the last two weeks..

The market cap of the SP500 is 24 trillion and it declined 24% between 1 October and Christmas day

/fucksnotgiven

more like 19.8% and that's three months, pal, vs 14 days and i was talking about day-to-day volatility. /fucksgiven

a move to 7.5-8.5K could be in the cards.
Something that is similar, but maybe shallower than this:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/OcS8j9al-Possible-retest-of-the-6k-area/

[JayJuanGee]

I think the odds of revisiting $3122 are way lower than 15%. The halving is less than a year away, do you really think enough idiots are holding enough btc to make that happen at this point?
And I'd seriously question anyone who would quote a multimillionaire rock star who had it all who put a shotgun to his head at 27 years old. That was some seriously fucked up dude.

Yes.. I may be being charitable with my allowance of about a 15% probability for $3,122, and even entertaining some of the pie in the sky wishful thinking of the butt hurt and seemingly troll/shill jonoiv.

[JayJuanGee]

... [edited out].......
Your dumb ass statement that "it has happened in the past" seems to be a bit out of context, because you seem to be just trying to assert that such a downward event, at this time, is more likely than it is... and currently we happen to be in a bull market, so show the exact comparison that you are suggesting if you want to seriously entertain "it has happened in the past" baloney.

That's my whole point I don't think we are.  I think it's the bull phase of a bear market and it's just turned back to the bear market in the larger bear market.  Phase C as iv'e said countless times over.

Well your theory of not being in a bullmarket does not really make matters better because it just looks like you are downplaying facts, logic and reasoning to string them together.
 Furthermore, you can assert your dumbass Phase C theory until you are blue in the face, it does not become more convincing merely because you are repeating it.. with at best a fantasy grasp on selective facts and logic.