Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ludwig Von]

Having a drink with Ludwig Von as we speak

Cosy guy great to have a drink with him (original from the same City as myself )

The honours go to you darlinks, very nice to have met you both IRL! and while we were chitchatting, honeybadger seems to have worked hard! Next one in Antwerp, or Gent again, Dok ! (Where I have bonnekes à volontée). 

[bitserve]

This is fine... ain't it?

Just imagine if $10K would hold until Q4. Yeah.

I don't disagree with your overall sentiment.

Usually if we are talking price, then it would be a range, and let's just take our current low of $9,049 as the bottom, and if $10k is in the middle of the range, then I am happy with that kind of ranging between $9k and $11k.

Your thinking seems a bit more optimistic to suggest a bottom that is above $10k... surely, that would be an even better scenario, and I would be quite content, even if between now and the end of the year brought us BTC prices that ranged between $10k and $11.5k. 

Given some of our recent BTC price movements, and even the seeming excitement of institutional investors and decently good newses surrounding the space, I am having my doubts that such BTC price stability could play out for so long.  We already have one month of consolidation under our belt, and until the end of the year would bring us to about 6 months.    Yeah...  we have seen decently long periods of consolidation in the past with a narrowing and narrowing and narrowing of the ranging and that kind of narrowing of the range could take us to the end of the year, and we would end up experiencing a BTC price stability situation that would end up being quite resembling of the first 5 months of 2016 and adding on the last month or two of 2015 from the early November 2015 peak of $504...... our break out above $500 had happened in the very last weekend of May 2016.

I am not so naive as to think that $10K is now a bottom. It isn't. It will probably be breached up and down many times. But I do like current dynamics and if it were to keep going the same until Q4... well, that could be a thing.

[Torque]

This thread is more dead than r0ach’s sex life recently

Which is a good thing. I love how $10K is now a meh thing. That helps consolidation in the long term.

I remember a time of low 3 digits, where both advocates and trolls would laugh (heartily) on this very forum at the notion of Bitcoin hitting $10K, much less hovering there near a stable price. It seemed like a pipe dream to almost everyone.

Now it's here. In just a few years after. Which means that it's no only achievable to go much higher, but everyone has set their expectations way too low.

[JayJuanGee]

^^^

Infofront, do you really want this kind of stuff in your thread?

Even though our troll is an anti-bitcoiner, it still makes bitcoiners look bad.
His posts rarely have anything to do with bitcoin anyway. I don't understand what he's doing here besides getting a kick out of pissing people off.

I do delete some of his posts, but keep in mind I cannot ban him. Only the real moderators can do that. I'm limited to deleting one post at a time.

Liberal use of ignore button highly recommended.

Can you delete post of sexy girls and dildos, muslims hodlers will feel embarrassed of these kind of post. We do not want WO to turn on Porn WO, except if we change WO to World Observer so we can talk everything here.

Actually, distracting diptwat (prude wannabe troll), I doubt that there is any kind of attempt to be politically correct here or to delete anti-me-too type stuff....

Thinking about it, what a disaster if there would be some kind of desire to delete posts based on religious extreme bullshit.. or even just religiosity particulars.  Hopefully, the vast majority, of guys and the one girl here appreciate some the curves and skin that are presented here and there, especially during moments of BTC price movement excitement.  

I mean. if people want one subject, they should talk only about that subject and vice-versa.
personally, I prefer World observer. Take what you want and throw what you dislike.

Whatever has been going on recently, including since Infofront took over this thread in the past 2-3 years seems to have been working pretty well, in the whole scheme of things.  Of course, some of the members are going to complain from time to time about how much he is deleting or failing/refusing to delete, and thereby he exercises his discretion about whether he should delete more or not.  

Part of my point was that active members seem to appreciate the boobs, butts, dildos and other off the wall excited utterances, and sometimes they even like the not too attractive or commonly accepted ones, while bawb shows some rebellion too by posting boy butts.  Go figure.

I doubt that a thread name change is either warranted or justified, especially as suggested by a troll/shill bitcoin naysayer like yourself who hardly fits in here otherwise,  except that you, roach, gembitz and perhaps a few others are kind of contra-indicators.  Furthermore, the current name seems to describe the thread's raison d'être - even if such description frequently comes off as pretextual, and like Fiddler on the Roof, there can be some value in mindless "tradition", too..

Why do you do x?   "tradition"

Why do you do y?   "tradition"

Why do you do z?   "tradition"

Why do you post the body parts of naked or semi-clothed girls?   "tradition"

Why do you post dildos, trains, rockets, other excitement inducing memes?   "tradition"

Why don't you change the name of the thread to something more "worldly"?  "tradition"

Why does JSRAW post making shit up loose renditions of reality thread summaries every week or two?   "tradition"

Why does roach, jbreher, gembitz, rebel15 and a few others post stupid-ass repetitive nonsense that is largely not bitcoin friendly?   "tradition"

Why does the WO thread... etc etc etc etc?   "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition"tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition" "tradition"

Why am I posting about a jew-friendly movie theme (and taking about 5 times as many words as necessary to make my point) in order to get on the nerves of Roach bot?    "tradition"  

[machasm]

This thread is more dead than r0ach’s sex life recently

Which is a good thing. I love how $10K is now a meh thing. That helps consolidation in the long term.

I remember a time of low 3 digits, where both advocates and trolls would laugh (heartily) on this very forum at the notion of Bitcoin hitting $10K, much less hovering there near a stable price. It seemed like a pipe dream to almost everyone.

Now it's here. In just a few years after. Which means that it's no only achievable to go much higher, but everyone has set their expectations way too low.

Hey Torque,
Nice to have you back.
Where have you been?

[xhomerx10]

...and TRX (Tron) is 20% down today!

Looks like it's time to Troff Tron

(Wonder how many people will get that without googling)

 I learned basic on a TRS-80 and later owned a TRS-80 model II with an 8 inch floppy.  Got it from a local doctor who had upgraded his office computer and was going to throw it out!  Ah the good ol' days.
  

[JayJuanGee]

This is fine... ain't it?

Just imagine if $10K would hold until Q4. Yeah.

The willingness to get back over $10,000 once we briefly dip below is again very bullish.
I think I know what’s going to happen in this cycle but I wish I had a fucking crystal ball to confirm it.

Right now it’s all about patience & accumulating whilst it’s still semi affordable really.

Roll on 2021-22.

Yup. Lots of things can happen on the way to 2021-22. Hodling is way easier seeing healthy prices even if the end result is probably the same.

I can sit pretty comfortably on my stash at around this prices.... for many years. Just don't give me $50K/$100K too soon/fast or I will be forced to sell more than I would want along the way.

I know that some of us were arguing that $50k and $100k were close to the same in terms of likelihood, but they surely don't seem to be the same in terms of feelings about an amount - especially if many of us have average buy prices for our BTC that is below $2k and many even below $1k.

So yeah, I know that factually $100k is only a doubling of $50k, but still seems to have a decent amount of significance, even if a person might only be holding in the 10BTC to 30BTC territory.

Anywhooooo...    I hope that you, bitserve, have narrowed down your plan a bit better in terms of how much you are distinguishing what you might with a quick $50k price versus a quick $100k price.

I also understand how getting to either price "quickly" could cause you to sell moar, this time, because it is likely to seem unsustainable, especially if we get to either of those price points quickly.. which would be getting to either of those price points prior to 2021, right?  or prior to mid-2020... which would also cause feelings of BTC price over-exuberance, no?

[Bardman]

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

[JayJuanGee]

This is fine... ain't it?

Just imagine if $10K would hold until Q4. Yeah.

I don't disagree with your overall sentiment.

Usually if we are talking price, then it would be a range, and let's just take our current low of $9,049 as the bottom, and if $10k is in the middle of the range, then I am happy with that kind of ranging between $9k and $11k.

Your thinking seems a bit more optimistic to suggest a bottom that is above $10k... surely, that would be an even better scenario, and I would be quite content, even if between now and the end of the year brought us BTC prices that ranged between $10k and $11.5k.  

Given some of our recent BTC price movements, and even the seeming excitement of institutional investors and decently good newses surrounding the space, I am having my doubts that such BTC price stability could play out for so long.  We already have one month of consolidation under our belt, and until the end of the year would bring us to about 6 months.    Yeah...  we have seen decently long periods of consolidation in the past with a narrowing and narrowing and narrowing of the ranging and that kind of narrowing of the range could take us to the end of the year, and we would end up experiencing a BTC price stability situation that would end up being quite resembling of the first 5 months of 2016 and adding on the last month or two of 2015 from the early November 2015 peak of $504...... our break out above $500 had happened in the very last weekend of May 2016.

I am not so naive as to think that $10K is now a bottom. It isn't. It will probably be breached up and down many times. But I do like current dynamics and if it were to keep going the same until Q4... well, that could be a thing.

Fair nuff.  

It seems that I may have mischaracterized your earlier assertion of hope as if you were making a BTC price prediction, which I had not meant to do, but those were the words that came out of my keyboard.

My fault.

Fucking keyboard has a mind of its own, sometimes. dammit.  Note to selfie: watugonnadu when more WO OGs start concluding u r bot?.

[yefi]

I learned basic on a TRS-80 and later owned a TRS-80 model II with an 8 inch floppy.

Ain't nobody got a bigger floppy than you xhomerx.

[Majormax]

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

4k to 14k in 3 months is indeed unhealthy.  But so is 20k to 6k in a few months.  

Many of the biggest stated misgivings were often about excessive price volatility. If price stayed around (+/-5%) 10k until 2021,  might that improve adoption ?

[JayJuanGee]

This thread is more dead than r0ach’s sex life recently

Which is a good thing. I love how $10K is now a meh thing. That helps consolidation in the long term.

I remember a time of low 3 digits, where both advocates and trolls would laugh (heartily) on this very forum at the notion of Bitcoin hitting $10K, much less hovering there near a stable price. It seemed like a pipe dream to almost everyone.

Now it's here. In just a few years after. Which means that it's no only achievable to go much higher, but everyone has set their expectations way too low.

Actually, I recall having some arguments with you torque in which you were way more conservative than me regarding how long or how far you expected BTC prices to go up or what was even possible with bitcoin.. Those arguments between you and me happened in 2015 and even extending into 2016 when you would have thought that many of us should have become somewhat more optimistic about possible future price rises for bitcoin.

I personally recall myself continuing to express highside possibilities, even during bad price times, but assigning decently low probabilities to some of the upside possibilities until after certain thresholds were reached and breached first... so you definitely should be including yourself in that group of pessimists and likely in the group that was more skeptical than the rest (perhaps not as far as being a bear, but sometimes I surely wondered about the extent of your negativism that resulted in your placing decently sized limitations on how far you expected to be within reasonable upside possibilities for bitcoin).

[JayJuanGee]

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

Huh?  You expect that we are going back to a bear market, already?  Early 2018 was the beginning of a bear market.  Some of us just did not realize it until about mid-November 2018.

Seems that our current situation is not really too comparable to early 2018, so you are throwing in quite the zinger with that kind of attempted comparison.

Better to have a ''steady'' market than random 10% changes. I personally think Bitcoin is holding really well and this was in fact a really healthy correction after quite an unhealthy move, 4k to 14k in 3 months? Clearly needed a big correction, it is better this way, we were getting close to a similar early 2018 situation.

4k to 14k in 3 months is indeed unhealthy.  But so is 20k to 6k in a few months.  

Many of the biggest stated misgivings were often about excessive price volatility. If price stayed around (+/-5%) 10k until 2021,  might that improve adoption ?

No.  That is a bunch of bullshit to attempt to ascribe unrealistic scenarios onto bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not likely to be stable until it reaches gold market cap parity minimum, but likely bitcoin is going to need about 5x to 10x of gold's market cap before it begins to even come close to reaching some kind of meaningful price stability.

In other words, we are way too damned early to even expect something that is not likely to be in bitcoin's cards, and who gives any shits about what is being projected upon bitcoin in terms of "what bitcoin needs."  To run the risk of repetition: I would ascribe "price stability" as unrealistic expectations that frequently comes from disingenuous folks, not folks who really understand where we are at with bitcoin in terms of our early adoption stage.

[El duderino_]

Observing back under 5-dig

Highly time for HODLsleep .......

[realr0ach]

Is Pieter Wuille a Jew?  Or does he just look identical to Karl Marx for no reason?  I'm guessing he doesn't identify as one, but might have partial Jewish ancestry.  The fact that he's involved in the creation of (((Blockstream))) is my main concern, when LN is just an exact replica of the banking system that already exists - a flat out permissioned ledger where every transaction will be routed through a bank.  Even if he's not consciously part of such a scheme to try and enslave the goyim, the self-chosenites like Larry Summers will attempt to fund and elevate people from the evil cult of Judaism into positions of power on purpose.

[realr0ach]

And why are the transaction fees up again??

Because BTC devs have imposed an economically-ignorant centrally-planned production quota upon transaction throughput capacity, which is insufficient to meet current natural demand.

It's not possible for a fee market to exist without artificial scarcity of block size, which is reason #5002 why all craptocurrencies are garbage and metals are superior.  None of the economics make any sense unless you're into being held hostage and gouged by a cartel who artificially control it's parameters.  There is definitely nothing free market about it.  As for things like the Monero 'adapative' block size, I kinda see it as the equivalent of building a motorcycle with no governer that can go 1000 MPH.  It wrecks and blows up as soon as you try 1 GB blocks in the real world while trying to outsource the system's waste as a tragedy of the commons mechanic.

[JayJuanGee]

I have a question for you guys regarding an event that was mentioned about 3/4 of the way through the below-linked Rabbit hole recap episode:

https://overcast.fm/+KiHrLzrpw

They said something about a coordinated effort to buy bitcoin at midnight UT on this coming saturday.

I was planning to participate in this event and to market buy a relatively small amount of BTC at whatever the fuck price is then happening, but I could not find any further information about the buy/pump bitcoin event.

Anyone heard about this or have further information?  If I cannot find any widespread publicity then I might not do it or if I do do it, then I will just buy a smaller amount than I originally intended.  Otherwise if the event is more widely publicized then I might buy a larger amount (out of taking one for the team support) in order to support/promote the idea  of the event.,. which is to pump bitcoin at a specific time... just for LOLs.

I would stay away from this.

Firstly, we don't know who is organizing this or how deep his pockets. If he is trying to get public attention, it won't work. To move btc for like $200 on stamp, you'll need like 350 btc.

Maybe I would watch it just for the fun but joining is a no no.

I just found this:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD

Might become helpful later. It basically says, to move BTC for $150 you'll need like 2k bitcoins.  

I liked this website so much this is the real wall observer!

O.k.  Fair enough.  

I would not have given the matter even a second thought; however, th tales from the crypt podcast is pretty credible, and they were saying that they were planning on doing it.  But if I merely market buy .01BTC or some small amount, then it should not matter too much, I suppose.

Doesn't matter to me either way, and I am not really worried about the matter being a scam because we would just be buying bitcoin, not sending money or bitcoin to anyone besides sending to ourselves, and if the BTC price subsequently falls by $1k or more, we just have to wait it out for the price to come back up, which is likely to happen sooner or later, so I figure, no skin off of my back, either way.

I did end up following through with this buying of BTC at midnight UT on saturday/sunday in a decently modified way, and I am glad that I did not carry it out within the parameters of my initial intention which would have been to market buy the amount that I had decided to set aside for such purposes.

About 12 hours in advance I decided not to market buy, but instead to set buy orders before midnight UT on saturday/sunday and to more or less double the amounts of BTC that I was going to buy.  So even though I was not buying the BTC with market orders, I would still be contributing to the cause in a style that was more in my interest.

If you recall at midnight UT on saturday/sunday, BTC's market price pumped above $11k, and seemed to be with no end in sight.   I had pretty much put my BTC buy orders at $10,200-ish and $10,400-ish.  I got the extra money immediately onto the exchanges, and I pretty much got the extra money by canceling my BTC buy orders that I had set in the mid $3k BTC price territory.  

I figure that I was not really prejudicing myself from being able to buy BTC in the mid-$3ks because if BTC prices go back down to mid-$3ks, then I should have a decent amount of time to make arrangements to be able to have that money available that I decided to use to buy BTC in the supra $10k arena.  

Even though the BTC price is currently testing support in the sub $10k levels, and the way the current momentum is going, we could be testing lower $9ks within the near future, I feel much better making my buy BTC buy orders at $600 to $800 lower than BTC's surpa $11k market price that was taking place at midnight UT on saturday/sunday.  Surely, I don't need to feel any angst regarding throwing in my support to follow a cause that was not even mine and was kind of questionable in nature, because I created BTC buy parameters that I adopted to become my own and I believe to have been well within my psychological and financial comfort levels - even though currently, those buys are currently in the red.. and maybe could even take several years before they become profitable on paper... doubtful, but surely possible within reasonable parameters.

[Raja_MBZ]

OUCH!

[jojo69]

are we rich yet?

[realr0ach]

OUCH!

Why are you acting surprised when any fool can look at the charts and see every movement upwards from $4000 was a completely non-aggregate, cliff face rise manipulation originating from a single entity?  It was like a classic, textbook pump and dump ending with a double top.  When the entire movement was artificial, it could implode to $6k or full retrace all the way back to $4k again and none of it would be surprising when it was all an illusion in the first place.