Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

WO thread needs major cleanup. Piles and piles of nonsense...

truer words...

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[VB1001]

Pantera Capital

We initially published this forecast in January ($3,700/BTC) using pricing data from Dec '10 thru Dec '18. During that time, bitcoin grew at a 235% CAGR. 

If #bitcoin reverts to its long-term trend by end of:

2019 :: $42k
2020 :: $122k
2021 :: $356k

https://twitter.com/PanteraCapital/status/1154074046692286475



Good morning WO,s

10000 again.

BTCullish

[jojo69]

555 means something! If you can't count 555 can

[realr0ach]

I think there's some sort of extreme mental illness in a lot of humans.  Take for example this Dan Morehead guy from Pantera Capital and Mike Novogratz.  I don't know the exact number, but these people are worth like half a billion to a billion dollars.  Besides building a Dyson sphere, it's enough money to do just about whatever you want to do.  Instead of going off and doing whatever, these people spend their lives in financial conferences to try and make EVEN MORE money off financial Ponzi scams.

So, at that point none of it is really about anything other than power over other humans, which leads to two pathways - some form of latent psychopathy, or a more general, primitive, bonobo-style, ape-like desire to be the most important ape in the totem pole. In other words, it's not really possible for these people to be 'advanced' or smart.  They can only really be one of two things, psychopaths or primitive monkeys seeking social hierarchy, power structure relevance due to the way they spend their time.  The alternative argument would be they want to 'shape' the world in their image somehow, but I doubt many of these tech billionaires have any real coherent plan that isn't just some offshoot of psychopathy or bonobo egoism and you're back to square one.

[JayJuanGee]

This really isn't the place for these post but Bitcoin sv and Bitcoin cash aren't Bitcoin, just forks and they could never be "Bitcoin".

I'm not suggesting that other projects or hard-forks "are bitcoin", nor am I suggesting that they have a direct effect on the fundamentals of the bitcoin protocol, I'm simply asking why the arbitrary variables set in the bitcoin protocol are "better" than the variables set in the protocols of other projects.

That is part of the problem of getting too caught up on technological reasoning rather than sound money reasoning.

The new and improved bitcoin 2.0s might be better, but who gives any shits.

Bitcoin remains superior even if some of the others come up with better technology, because bitcoin is not broken.  You gotta cause bitcoin to actually be broken or inferior in a stupendous way before the improvement of various technicals actually matters.

Now about litecoin and other altcoins, you'll find plenty screaming how coina or coinb is better and the future but the truth is these (all other projects) are all faulted in one way or another.

That's a huge claim and you've provided no evidence that this is in fact true.

That's part of the point that you don't seem to get Amateur_.  You see that neither kingcolex nor anyone in bitcoin needs to prove anything.

Shitcoins have to prove themselves and convince peeps to go over to them before any kind of burden might shift to bitcoin to have to prove itself.

If you believe that you see enough supposed deficiencies in bitcoin, then go ahead and invest in those other projects with the wish that bitcoin's network effects are going to transfer over to those other coins.  You will be just like a whole hell of a lot of other wishful thinking shitcoin supporters who are endlessly and likely futilely waiting for their coin to pump and for Bitcoin's network effects to go over to them, when bitcoin is not sufficiently broken enough to cause peeps to move.

I've heard the "first mover advantage" mentioned, along with terms like "the network effect", but I'm yet to hear a convincing argument for the superiority of the bitcoin protocol, when compared with others in the space.

My concern can easily be written off if the argument for the superiority of bitcoin is its current price action, but this highlights again the underlying majority view that bitcoin is simply a tool for gambling, doesn't it?

Yes.  Sounds like you want to continue to be blind.  Yes.  Wait for the arguments that bitcoin is better, they are not going to come.  So you can go off and choose your other coin or just chose to be another loser nocoiner who will be chasing the bitcoin train in the next few years when it goes above $100k... or maybe you won't start chasing the bitcoin train until is is in the supra $500k arena.

Litecoin is the "silver to bitcoins gold" but most have instamine, ico's, masternode scams, ease of 51% attacks, Led by a leader and more.

It's true that we can't write off all non-bitcoin projects as scams; it's also true that a large number of other projects are in fact scams.

So, what makes bitcoin better than those other projects which are not scams, and which are effectively clones of bitcoin with minor differences?

Again.... you think that bitcoin has some kind of burden to prove itself.  It doesn't.  It already has the gravity of sound money, if you happen to understand what that is.

Bitcoin is where it's at due to a few factors, strong history, strong DISTRIBUTED hashrate, quality or devs, launch history, use and development.

Bitcoin is where WHAT'S at?
The totally massive and radical financial gains potential?

Likely most value is going to gravitate into the asset with the strongest sound money features, and there are no other coins or projects that even come close to bitcoin in this regard, so until such a thing happens that some other coin has a stronger sound money situation, then value will gravitate into bitcoin as the most sound of the assets.  Believe it or don't.  Study it or don't.  Look for arguments to support your suspicions that bitcoin is not technologically special, and those kinds of arguments are all over the place for you to buy into while you remain an ongoing and persistent nocoiner bitcoin skeptic.  Good luck in your travels and your other likely to be inferior investments.

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue.  Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.  

S/he/it is here to teach us that bitcoin likely has some technological inferiorities, so therefore, we should wait for a better technology or invest in some other more technologically superior coin(s).

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue.  Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.  

You do realise that argumentation and thoughtful discussion is a valid way of learning, right?
A reasonably effective way at arriving at the truth, no?

You're also aware, obviously, that indoctrination is the practice of "listen and believe", right?

Oh gawd!!!!   

[VB1001]

WO thread needs major cleanup. Piles and piles of nonsense...

truer words...

Easy, ignored button.

[JayJuanGee]

 This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Whoaza. I'm gonna have to rethink my beliefs about BTC scarcity or the lack thereof, due to the lack of bitcoin's physicality beyond a bunch of electrons floating on wires and through space.  Surely those electrons, including the ones and zeros are not sufficiently physical.

Incoming stupid JayJuanGee post pretending he's wiser than Aristotle and not a simple fly by night, digital scamcoin grifter.

Surely, I could not be smarter than Aristotle, but I am more likely to be smarter than several no coiner bitcoin naysayers such as Roach who sold all of his bitcoins in the $700 price territory.  Sometimes I have my doubts, but frequently roach does make me feel as if I am smart, and I am just a normal guy who did not sell his coins in the $700s.

In other words, I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to out run dee roach, which does not seem to be a difficult task on most days.

[realr0ach]

This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Bitcoin does not solve Byzantine generals because the basis of Byzantine generals is really just a Sybil attack and Bitcoin is not, and has never been Sybil proof when it's possible for the same guy to own every mining pool on earth in secrecy.  A single guy can therefore be operating right out in the open in a 51%+ attack state in perpetuity.  This has likely been the real world case for a good duration of Bitcoin's existence with the Bitmain monopoly and ownership of more than one pool, and secretly stashing hash power in different pools.

To attempt to fix this problem, you would need to use the Andrew Miller idea of non-outsourceable puzzle box to prevent the use of pools at all.  In that scenario, there would be more incentive for large hash rate actors to keep their hash rate pooled in the same place instead of diffusing it and would be more easy to identify, but since they can still selectively hide their resources in multiple locations to operate wide out in the open as a 51%+ monopoly, essentially colluding with themselves - Sybil - Bitcoin would still not solve Byzantine generals.  

It's 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency for numerous reasons such as this, from transaction validators being designed to centralize, to being unable to even check how centralized they are.

[TheNewAnon135246]

I knew it, the GOOSE, is SATOSHI


Kleiman v. Wright Case Update: Man From Belgium Tells Judge He Is Satoshi

“I hereby testify, by written letter — I am the genuine and only originator/creator of the genesis block of the Bitcoin blockchain. I used the handle Satoshi Nakamoto and mail Satoshin@GMX.com to write and publish the whitepaper bitcoin.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/kleiman-v-wright-case-update-man-from-belgium-tells-judge-he-is-satoshi

Mic...

Satoshi accidently posted his IP once, which showed he was in the California area at the time.

Edit: source

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG - I remember well in 2014 you were sitting on incredible losses, I think you were even worse in the red than me

I am not sure if I like the word "losses", but I get what you are saying, so surely towards the end of 2014 beginning of 2015, that was towards the worst time of my own average cost per BTC in comparison to the then price.  So I believe that towards the end of 2014, my average cost per BTC was in the $550 territory, and that was when the BTC price first started dipping below $200, so yeah, I was maybe in the 65% negative territory.  I had some other emergency situation that happened at that time too that ruined my cashflow, so between about February 2015 and May 2015, was not really able to take advantage of relatively low BTC prices and to buy BTC.  There were some people telling me to sell a portion of my BTC during that time in order to meet some of my cashflow obligations, but I got through the period and began to buy small amounts of BTC again in June-ish.  So by the end of 2015, my average cost per BTC was in about the $500 range and maybe even dipping below $500, and we know that at the end of 2015 price shot up to $500 and then took a break for about 6 months before going above $500 again at the end of May 2016.  Pretty much it was unambiguously clear that I was "in profits" after the May 2016 break above $500.

I was at a 50% loss of total investment in 2014 through to early 2015.

Yeah, but pretty much the whole of 2015 stayed in a price trough, and late 2014 was the beginning of the shock of that situation.  I've said it before, but there were so many price dips in 2014 and I had pretty much thought that the bottom was in in the $380s towards the end of 2014, but it ended up that we got nearly another halvening of the BTC price, and ended up largely bouncing between $220 and $280 for the vast majority of 2015.

It’s really cool to be on the same journey for a similar amount of time to a lot of people now.

Maybe some of us are becoming OGs, even though there are some older timers than us who have been able to hang onto a decent portion of their coins.  There are some OGs in our era and even older OGs who have not been able to hang onto a decently size portion of their cheaper acquired BTC stash.

I’ll have to recalculate my total investment to unrealised profit again later & let you know how many x I am in profit now because it’s changed a bit now. I’ve invested another $20,000 into BTC since the crash from $19,xxx.

My averages move too, and I am frequently doing a bit of a ballpark.  I am surely not trying to exaggerate my gains, so if anything, I will try to account for any expenses that I might have along the way in order to give some fair renditions of my overall average cost per coin.  Furthermore, sometimes i will make some kinds of screw ups that cause my average cost per BTC to go up, but thereafter, I will trade sell on the way up and buy on the way down, and overall, those transactions do seem like they end up bringing my average cost per BTC back down.  By the way, regarding my selling about 3.5% my stash in November 2018 and then subsequently buying 25% or more back, I provide a kind of ballpark for how that played out, but some time in the future, I may have to go through the situation with a more fine toothed comb in order to really provide an accounting that I believe to be more representative in terms of how my average cost per coin is affected and the extent to which I might consider some of those coins to have just been completely removed from the game (which because of timing is how it shows up on my taxes).

@JJG - I remember well in 2014 you were sitting on incredible losses

Might get to see a repeat of that.  The average man on the street is completely tapped out.  The millenial generation supposedly has 40% less wealth than the previous generation did at the same age.  I wouldn't be surprised if that figure was low-balled and they have even less.  In other words, there is nobody that exists to take the other side of the trade and be the greater fool to buy imaginary, valueless, digital scamcoins.
JayJuanGee's only hope is literally for Jamie Dimon himself to be the greater fool and come in and buy digital shitcoins from him.  What could go wrong?

Seems as if I have better hopes and options than that, especially since I did not sell all of my coins in the $700 arena.  I got a pretty decent cushion, and let's see how it plays out... Roach wants to compete regarding this? 

I understand that you are a lot of doom and gloom in regards to bitcoin, so you want to scare people off of bitcoin, right?

I believe that you are giving too much power to the interwebs, and this thread.  I doubt that anything that we really do is going to matter.  Bitcoin is likely going to continue to attract value and some of that will come from gold, no?  What do you want to compare bitcoin?  Gold, silver, some amalgamation?  I bet that bitcoin beats gold on a 2 year time line and then on a 5 year time line, and I am not sure if it matters from there, no?  We have to reassess our investments from time to time, so none of us should be completely locked in for more than 5 years, are we?  We should have some flexibility to reapportion every 5 years or 5 years into the future-ish, no?

[RivAngE]

I randomly found that old post of mine from since the last pump started, reminding me how the ones fighting BTC in order to tame it are playing the people.

If this graph is correct, then this is going to be another disaster,
https://coinlib.io/global-crypto-charts#global_money_flow

As long as people trade their real Bitcoins with paper TetherUSD, whoever controls Tether can control BTC's price.
I suppose this difference of flow between fiat (USD, EUR, Yuan etc) and TUSD isn't that huge, but I didn't remember to look at it a few days before when the rally started.

I don't know if using alts would bring any benefit since the prices are still tied with BTC's price, maybe having like 5 to 10 different coins with no correlation to one another and banning USDT and other fiat-supported fake coins from exchanges would help.
Unfortunately the main users of crypto are people with little or no idea on how economies and the leaders of this world operate. Sure, there are some exceptions, but even among the whales there are many who became whales by accident and not by knowledge and skills.

I'm sorry for being pessimistic, I guess I kinda feel we're doomed! Yet, I'll keep on holding!!

[realr0ach]

Satoshi accidently posted his IP once, which showed he was in the California area at the time.

Good luck getting the 'real' Satoshi to show itself on the verge of people claiming the price is going to $100k - $1 million a coin while only having a $3k cost of production or $6k post halving.  Meaning it's completely impossible without mining expanding so much that it would use more power than every nation on earth.  So it either fails to generate the Ponzi profits people claim then goes into a death spiral leaving everyone homeless, or every square inch of the world is covered in ASIC miners and instantly banned.  Either way he would be facing a firing squad as the Ponzi comes to a conclusion one way or another.

[JayJuanGee]

This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Bitcoin does not solve Byzantine generals because the basis of Byzantine generals is really just a Sybil attack and Bitcoin is not, and has never been Sybil proof when it's possible for the same guy to own every mining pool on earth in secrecy.  A single guy can therefore be operating right out in the open in a 51%+ attack state in perpetuity.  This has likely been the real world case for a good duration of Bitcoin's existence with the Bitmain monopoly and ownership of more than one pool, and secretly stashing hash power in different pools.

To attempt to fix this problem, you would need to use the Andrew Miller idea of non-outsourceable puzzle box to prevent the use of pools at all.  In that scenario, there would be more incentive for large hash rate actors to keep their hash rate pooled in the same place instead of diffusing it and would be more easy to identify, but since they can still selectively hide their resources in multiple locations to operate wide out in the open as a 51%+ monopoly, essentially colluding with themselves - Sybil - Bitcoin would still not solve Byzantine generals.  

It's 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency for numerous reasons such as this, from transaction validators being designed to centralize, to being unable to even check how centralized they are.

O.k.  makes sense.  Therefore, Aristotle was right.  It's gotta be physical or no gonna work.

TLDR:  Bitcorn ded.

[JayJuanGee]

I randomly found that old post of mine from since the last pump started, reminding me how the ones fighting BTC in order to tame it are playing the people.

If this graph is correct, then this is going to be another disaster,
https://coinlib.io/global-crypto-charts#global_money_flow

As long as people trade their real Bitcoins with paper TetherUSD, whoever controls Tether can control BTC's price.
I suppose this difference of flow between fiat (USD, EUR, Yuan etc) and TUSD isn't that huge, but I didn't remember to look at it a few days before when the rally started.

I don't know if using alts would bring any benefit since the prices are still tied with BTC's price, maybe having like 5 to 10 different coins with no correlation to one another and banning USDT and other fiat-supported fake coins from exchanges would help.
Unfortunately the main users of crypto are people with little or no idea on how economies and the leaders of this world operate. Sure, there are some exceptions, but even among the whales there are many who became whales by accident and not by knowledge and skills.

I'm sorry for being pessimistic, I guess I kinda feel we're doomed! Yet, I'll keep on holding!!

Yes, I felt as if we were doomed since getting into bitcoin, but for some reason BTC prices keep going up.

Hopefully you will not get shaken from your BTC by worrying about irrelevant bullshit such as tether fud claiming manipulation.

[JayJuanGee]

Satoshi accidently posted his IP once, which showed he was in the California area at the time.

Good luck getting the 'real' Satoshi to show itself on the verge of people claiming the price is going to $100k - $1 million a coin while only having a $3k cost of production or $6k post halving.  Meaning it's completely impossible without mining expanding so much that it would use more power than every nation on earth.  So it either fails to generate the Ponzi profits people claim then goes into a death spiral leaving everyone homeless, or every square inch of the world is covered in ASIC miners and instantly banned.  Either way he would be facing a firing squad as the Ponzi comes to a conclusion one way or another.

You and Mnuchin gonna end this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie, right?

[mladen00]

when will BTC price superpass no. of  WO pages?
 

[realr0ach]

You and Mnuchin gonna end this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie, right?

Most of the big moneychangers on earth at places like the squid are aware of my posts.  All of these people were hesitant about digital shitcoins in the first place because they're already wealthy and have no desire in being fleeced by a fly by night scam.  They worked hard to steal it all, you know?  

Since I'm one of the few people capable of explaining these things in non-jibberish form, pretty much everyone now knows none of these things have any actual fundamentals and are all just pump and dump scams.  They are therefore hostile towards being coerced into them with any of their own money when things like silver and gold are in inverse bubbles and a no-brainer to buy instead.  Nobody that already has any sort of money wants to play Russian roulette buying digital shitcoins in a momentum trade that can go catastrophically bad due to zero fundamentals when there's easy asymmetric trades at hand. 

[fillippone]

when will BTC price superpass no. of  WO pages?
 

Events to celebrate:

1. WO page parity
2. 100K BTCUSD
3. WO Post parity
4. Gold Parity (BTC capitalisation equals Gold Capitalisation).

This is more or less in inverse order of relevance to me!
Hopefully 1 comes before 2 and 3 before 4!

[serveria.com]

when will BTC price superpass no. of  WO pages?
 

You need the exact date& time man? 

[Amateur_]

when will BTC price superpass no. of  WO pages?

Going by the chart on the previous page, I'd say pretty soon.

ALL that text, in ALL those replies, that I DEFINITELY read, and VERY much enjoyed.