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Question: Is this the last time we see sub-$10K?
Yes - 38 (40.9%)
No - 55 (59.1%)
Total Voters: 93

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21532375 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
hd49728
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July 30, 2019, 10:44:57 AM

Still short term bearish. Id say fight me  Wink but I dont really feel like posting much unless im short and long term bullish.

I will say 4900 is pretty extreme, its more like a floor I dont see us going under. 7-8k would be a more reasonable outcome imo, but this is Bitcoin and shit happens.  I think people shouldnt cry if 4900 is reached bc its still very bullish as a higher low than 3100 of Dec. 15.
Bitcoin might fall around 26 percent to 30 percent, from the range $11,000, where bitcoin broke out. It means in my forecast, bitcoin will fall to the range between $7700 and $8000. It is deep enough to kill Long gangs, and it is also relevant to news on Tether USD. News is used to pump and dump coins, so, why not believe in my forecast?

China lost its impacts on bitcoin and crypto market for a long time ago. This time is not an exception, and I don't think this news have any kind of effects on bitcoin price.
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July 30, 2019, 11:41:06 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

FUCKING SHIT IF YOU ARE GOING TO GO UP GO UP ALREADY AND MAKE ME RICH FFS

IF YOU ARE GOING TO GO DOWN GO FUCKIN DOWN SO I CAN BUY MORE

...and i thought $5k was bad.

Getting stuck at $9-10k feels so disgusting. Don't want to buy many because dunno if it is going to go up sharply or go down and create more buy opportunities.

Sorry for caps, i lost myself a bit.

Just wanted to shout.  Grin

Dude.  I am DCAing a leveraged long position right now. Very low leverage - well under 1:1.   My current dollar cost average is $10,500 and I am totally relaxed because every slight chip down in the price just lowers my DCA.  

Adapt to the price.  Don’t fight it.  We are in a bull market.  The price will go up again.  You will have what you are looking for.

Remember that Hairy is pretty experience in this arena.. so careful with anyone using any kind of leverage at all.. Usually the use of any kind of leverage magnifies the potential for both losses and gains, and is not easy to use for the vast majority of folks can just get into bitcoin and accumulate BTC with simple dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.. and that should be risky enough because it surely is not guaranteed to go up (even if decent odds, such as being in a bull market, which I agree with hairy about that)... but still bitcoin is an asymmetric bet, so guys and gal can still make a lot of money without employing leveraging strategies.

That is only partly correct.

So you can go 1x or lower leverage and actually use your BTC as collateral to buy more BTC or hedge against a BTC/USD drop.

It is actually VERY safe to do, if you understand what you are doing.

And to be honest i would advise every single one of you to actually inform yourself about it and try it out.

You will be able to quite safely preserve your USD value while being able to increase your BTC stack without being forced to add additional fiat.

Of course this is not for free, hedging or betting wrong has always a cost, but you have to accept this possible loss and can minimize it with proper risk managment.

Hm?  Maybe you are correct, perhaps? and maybe the employment of such systems might work for some users?  You are suggesting that it is simple, and I know that d_eddie seems to talk about his strategies in the use of those kinds of tools, too.  I suppose I am not opposed about members learning various techniques that might work, and I believe that I tout out basic techniques that don't really use those kinds of tools, so even if those tools might be helpful, they might not be necessary and could cause some members to attempt to put their BTC at risk when they would have been safer by just employing more simple tried and true accumulation strategies such as dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and HODL.

I personally have been suggesting that the next more sophisticated step is to start to sell small amounts on the way up in order to use that money to buy back in the event of a dip.  Using leverage is even a more advanced strategy, which part of my point was to say that it is a bit more advanced, and I think that I continue to remain correct about it being a more advanced strategy than what I am suggesting to be good enough to make some peeps richie... under consistent and persistent strategies to dollar  cost average buy, buy on dips and hodl.. and more sophisticated would be selling small amounts on the way up, after they have largely already reached their baseline accumulation goals.


Definitely agree with you here - margin trading is for sure the next step in the trading ladder and needs you to put in more time and involves the use of advanced trading strategies.

DCA is more like fire and forget in that sense and everyone can use it without the need to dive hundreds (or more) of hours in trading strategies.


The really interesting part is that you can use your existing BTC stash as margin to trade - no need to put in more fiat or basically giving you additional buying/selling power on top of your fiat.
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July 30, 2019, 11:54:55 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), ssmc2 (1), Phil_S (1)

Here is another interesting observation:


Why 2.4 ?
Simulations performed by Trace Mayer determined that in the past, the best long-term results were achieved by accumulating Bitcoin whenever the Mayer Multiple was below 2.4.
Since the simulations were based on historical data, they are purely educational and should not be the basis of any financial decision.



The moment Mayer Multiple reached just above 2.4, it started to go down.

Amazing.

So, $14k was in a mini bubble territory and the bears didn't miss that one. Sniped it right away. $7.5k looks like a good buy.

edit: Also see the previous 2.4 rejections in 2017. Happened twice before the big boom. That's even more interesting.
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July 30, 2019, 12:53:55 PM

advanced paper wallet from the austrian state printing house: https://www.chainlock.com/?lang=en

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July 30, 2019, 12:59:11 PM



No offense, but is that forbes link legit? looks kinda suspicious...
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July 30, 2019, 01:01:53 PM


I think this is the AMP (Accelerated Mobile Page) version of this: http://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/07/29/china-could-be-about-to-throw-its-weight-behind-bitcoin/
seems legit.
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July 30, 2019, 01:09:14 PM

Here is another interesting observation:



The moment Mayer Multiple reached just above 2.4, it started to go down.

Amazing.

So, $14k was in a mini bubble territory and the bears didn't miss that one. Sniped it right away. $7.5k looks like a good buy.

edit: Also see the previous 2.4 rejections in 2017. Happened twice before the big boom. That's even more interesting.
Do you mean that we will have to wait at least 4 more months to see next pump of bitcoin?
Whatever methods/ indicators you used, I agreed with you that bitcoin might fall to the range around $7700.
Bitcoin might fall around 26 percent to 30 percent, from the range $11,000, where bitcoin broke out. It means in my forecast, bitcoin will fall to the range between $7700 and $8000. It is deep enough to kill Long gangs, and it is also relevant to news on Tether USD. News is used to pump and dump coins, so, why not believe in my forecast?
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July 30, 2019, 01:19:13 PM
Merited by infofront (1), mindrust (1), AlcoHoDL (1), _javi_ (1)

cybercash, as imagined in 1998



please note, they wrote hodlers wrong Smiley
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July 30, 2019, 01:24:12 PM
Merited by vroom (1)

cybercash, as imagined in 1998



please note, they wrote hodlers wrong Smiley

Prophetic! Good find. It describes the main features of Bitcoin pretty accurately.

Edit: I don't see any misspelling in the photo...
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July 30, 2019, 01:26:06 PM

cybercash, as imagined in 1998
~
please note, they wrote hodlers wrong Smiley
Can you give me name of the book from which you snapshotted that page, please. I will buy and read it, that is likely a interesting book on digital cash.
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July 30, 2019, 01:29:38 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

cybercash, as imagined in 1998
~
please note, they wrote hodlers wrong Smiley
Can you give me name of the book from which you snapshotted that page, please. I will buy and read it, that is likely a interesting book on digital cash.

The Sovereign Individual

it's not my snapshot, I just found it. here are some more quotes: https://imgur.com/a/eV74v#0
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July 30, 2019, 01:34:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Can you give me name of the book from which you snapshotted that page, please. I will buy and read it, that is likely a interesting book on digital cash.

I see this posted here today : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5170269.0

It seems that Satoshi Nakamoto is read this book, maybe he get idea for BTC creation after reading Wink
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July 30, 2019, 02:02:36 PM
Last edit: July 30, 2019, 02:12:49 PM by fillippone

Libra: much ado about nothing?

https://www.coindesk.com/facebook-libra-might-not-ever-launch-concedes-firm
Quote
In a frank disclosure in the firm’s latest quarterly report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the firm said that the many barriers it will face regarding regulating a new technology with unclear rules in the U.S. and other nations of the world, mean “there can be no assurance that Libra or our associated products and services will be made available in a timely manner, or at all.”

“Our participation in the Libra Association will subject us to significant regulatory scrutiny and other risks that could adversely affect our business, reputation, or financial results,” Facebook says.

Quote
“These laws and regulations, as well as any associated inquiries or investigations, may delay or impede the launch of the Libra currency as well as the development of our products and services, increase our operating costs, require significant management time and attention, or otherwise harm our business.”


Waiting for Godot?

Compulsory meme:


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July 30, 2019, 02:11:43 PM

This thread is so quiet at the moment.

**Sighs**

Oh, I do miss the excitement of a mid to peak bull run. I’m always here, reading but I don’t really have much to post about in this thread atm Cheesy
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July 30, 2019, 02:12:41 PM


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5126554.0

He had to read long before reaching Bitcoin.

1994 - CyberCash

Quote
On January 1, 2000, many users of CyberCash's ICVerify application fell victim to the Y2K Bug, causing double recording of credit card payments through their system.[5] Although CyberCash had already released a Y2K-compliant update to the software, many users had not installed it.

The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on March 11, 2001. VeriSign acquired the Cybercash assets (except for ICVerify) and name a couple of months later. On November 21, 2005 PayPal (already an eBay company) acquired VeriSign's payment services, including Cybercash.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CyberCash
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July 30, 2019, 02:20:40 PM

I suspect that such a wallet (belonging to Satoshi or a close friend of his, and in the possession of CSW) may not even exist, and it may all be CSW spreading fear and misinformation, which is what he usually does, has done many times in the past, and is something that fits his character and methods very well (I know, your grandma taught you to ignore human behaviour, but...), so all is good in the BTC camp.


There is another theory: the first million coins cant be moved, due to being part of the protocol. They were created to secure mining, so even if the password is cracked, they wont be moved.
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July 30, 2019, 02:24:36 PM

This thread is so quiet at the moment.

**Sighs**

Oh, I do miss the excitement of a mid to peak bull run. I’m always here, reading but I don’t really have much to post about in this thread atm Cheesy

Apart from that there is not much movement in the price, it is also vacation time, many are on the beach with their girls taken caipirinhas.
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July 30, 2019, 02:44:03 PM

This thread is so quiet at the moment.

**Sighs**

Oh, I do miss the excitement of a mid to peak bull run. I’m always here, reading but I don’t really have much to post about in this thread atm Cheesy

Apart from that there is not much movement in the price, it is also vacation time, many are on the beach with their girls taken caipirinhas.

I need to book a beach holiday, thinking about the Caribbean in maybe February. I have a small trip to Amsterdam next week though where I will meet the goose & cryptoqueeen.
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July 30, 2019, 02:49:10 PM

There is another theory: the first million coins cant be moved, due to being part of the protocol. They were created to secure mining, so even if the password is cracked, they wont be moved.


I'm aware that this applies to the genesis block only.
Maybe wrong, but it looks like they are movable, at least from block height #9:

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/12cbQLTFMXRnSzktFkuoG3eHoMeFtpTu3S

The theory doesn't make much sense tbh.

#

Troll with me brothers. Grin
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July 30, 2019, 03:06:26 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

This thread is so quiet at the moment.

**Sighs**

Oh, I do miss the excitement of a mid to peak bull run. I’m always here, reading but I don’t really have much to post about in this thread atm Cheesy

Apart from that there is not much movement in the price, it is also vacation time, many are on the beach with their girls taken caipirinhas.

I need to book a beach holiday, thinking about the Caribbean in maybe February. I have a small trip to Amsterdam next week though where I will meet the goose & cryptoqueeen.

If you are looking at Caribbean beaches, beware of sargassum (seaweed). It can ruin your holiday.

I booked at Seven Mile Beach at Cayman for next february. That beach is top ten in the world, and confirmed sargassum free. Not cheap though.
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