Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

I believe that I was saying something slightly different, but I agree with your statement too, serveria.  If something is 50/50, then it still might be o.k. to just talk about one side, but to disclose that you believe it is 50/50.  However, it is worse if you believe something is only 20% odds, but then you neither disclose that you believe it is 20% odds, while you talk about it as if you believe the odds were greater than 20%.

I give two shits about whether noobs or weak hands are scared, especially if you are actually discussing something in a way that you really believe.  It is good to put out there information of either the plus or the minus or the fears that you might have as long as you really are attempting to characterize your information and your emotions and your fears accurately.  

I would not conclude that mindrust is engaging in any kind of bad faith, but I will assert that some of what he had been saying seemed to had been a bit internally contradictory... but I don't think that he was doing it on purpose (at least mostly not).   Currently, I believe that through several of his further explanatory posts he has cleared up quite a bit of what he had been saying.  Not completely, but who needs complete clarification, anyhow?  We are all BIG boys and girl and we should be able to come to our own various conclusions.

[ðºÞæ]

Australian Government to declare war on its people, taking steps to make cash, (gold?) crypto currency illegal through IMF influenced legislation.
Paying someone to vote for me has nothing to do with democracy, its a farce.
https://youtu.be/770M2s6ZD8Y

[jojo69]

Who decided that?

This was all hammered out and ratified in the Vegas accords in 2014, I can dig up the minutes if you want.

[serveria.com]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

Dude you are so emotional about my guesses. I told you before.

If you feel depressed by any down scenarios, even though the major trend is bullish, it means you are too deep in bitcoin.

We'll get there. Hang on.

Dude I've been HODLing since 2011 nothing can make me feel depressed anymore. I've seen it all. I'm freaking invincible.  

[jbreher]

This is big.

Blockstream Reveals Massive Bitcoin Mining Facilities, Fidelity An Early Customer

Kyle Torpey at least knows how to edit.

Yeah, I dunno. What do the last three paragraphs have to do with Blockstream having large mining power?

Dude.

I am reduced to handing out credit for the simple lack of glaring errors in spelling or syntax.  I don't like it any better than you do.

Whatta world we live in, eh?

[jbreher]

reaching 70% dominance. on cmc, which was always rigged in favour of alts.

BTC dominance was always over 80% until the BCH split happened. From that moment on. Or better to say a bit before that, was always uncertainty. Not just BCH steal dominance but also ETH, which many considered as BTC version two. But it ended just as a platform to crowdfund founds with illegal securities.  And it seems it lasted for two whole years.

There was an explosion of ICOs at that time. The BCH fork wasn’t a driver.

From end of 2017 Feb to mid 2017 Jun, BTC dominance plunged from over 85% to below 40%.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

The beginning of 2017 is when blocks started becoming persistently full.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-size.html

The loss of dominance was due neither to BCH nor ICOs. 'Twas the Blockalypse. Or more precisely, Blockalypse I.

Nice try.

It was the ICO boom of 2017 driving up the price of ETH to 35% market dominance.  

ICOs and token sales became popular in 2017. There were at least 18 websites tracking ICOs before mid-year.[12] In May, the ICO for a new web browser called Brave generated about $35 million in under 30 seconds.[citation needed] Messaging app developer Kik's September 2017 ICO raised nearly $100 million. At the start of October 2017, ICO coin sales worth $2.3 billion had been conducted during the year, more than ten times as much as in all of 2016.[13][14] As of November 2017, there were around 50 offerings a month,[15] with the highest-grossing ICO as of January 2018, being Filecoin raising $257 million (and $200 million of that within the first hour of their token sale).[16]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_coin_offering

Nice try, indeed.

Your timeline does not match up. Your wiki 'evidence' says nothing about pre-May. By 2017 May 1, BTC's dominance had already been slashed from more that 85% in end of Feb to below 60%. Indeed, a look at a chart of cumulative ICO value per month counters your assertion:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/from-2-9-billion-in-a-month-to-hundreds-dead-trends-of-the-rollercoaster-ico-market-in-18-months

One can quite clearly see that there was comparatively very little taken in by ICO's by the time 2017 Jun rolled around - and that BTC dominance had already nosedived to below 40%.

You know what timeline does match up with the plunge in market dominance? Blockalypse I.

You can try to bend history around - but we were all there and lived it.

Funny how you remember it in a manner other than which the hard numerical evidence indicates.

You need to give up shilling your shitcoin

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

[jbreher]

I already responded both that your facts are not correct and also,

So you're asserting that the charts I posted links to contain fraudulent figures? Interesting. I don't believe your assertion is correct, so I will tentatively conclude that you are delusional on these additional matters of fact.

I'll be happy to rescind my conclusion of delusional, just as soon as you post links to credible evidence of corrected data.

[jbreher]

Why did you not join the vote?

Poll is meaningless. I don't begrudge you having a bit of fun, but WTF is the point?

[jbreher]

Well done Nutildah!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4850225.msg52117047#msg52117047

I don’t know if You subscribed to Maggiordomo, in case you didn’t, Fillippone is here to help!

No, I didn't, for the most part I don't want to hear what others are saying about me, but this time its an exception! Thanks for the heads up.

I also want to thank my mom, Jesus Christ, of course the big man upstairs, oh and micgoossens, jbreher and who could forget JJG, for helping to push me well past the 1,000 mark, I love you all and I hope to win this award again next year! Never stop believing in yourself!! You can do anything!!!

Lovely acceptance speech. As one of the little people, it makes me proud by reflection.

[HairyMaclairy]

Aaaaaaaaaaaand, Epstein found dead in his cell...

Who didn't see that coming? 

For the better.....

Except now there wont be a trial for him where he would likely bring unwanted attention to numerous politicians including Bill Clinton for pedophilia/sex traffic related visits on his private island. But ya, good riddance just wish it would have happened after the trial.

Southern District of NY says they will continue the investigation.  Hard to believe anything will come of it though. 

[jbreher]

While most alts have been dumped, XMR and LTC have not been. I wonder why they left them. I don't think these two coins are going to perform well.

Litecoin acolytes hold heartfulls of halvening hopium.

As for Ripple, it is arguably not a cryptocurrency.

[jbreher]

Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase....

::shrugs:: I get my charts where I do my bidnez. I see no point in trawling over to schtamp just to get your panties outta your crack.

[jbreher]

You know that jbreher got pretty worked up when some of us (well partly emphasized by me) continued to refer to him as a govt agent...

Go Fuck Yourself, JuniorGee.

How are we supposed to really know peeps on the interwebs? 

Didn't you know? I am mindrust's alter ego. I thought everyone already knew that.

[HairyMaclairy]

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You can keep pushing that narrative but no one wants to use a fork owned and run by Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright. Or Roger Ver for that matter.

[jbreher]

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You can keep pushing that narrative but no one wants to use a fork owned and run by Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright. Or Roger Ver for that matter.  I don’t know how you can stand associating yourself with those characters.

Funny how I'm clearly talking about BTC, and you yammer on about personalities associated with other Bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Dude I've been HODLing since 2011 nothing can make me feel depressed anymore. I've seen it all. I'm freaking invincible.  

Do you not have any cash flow in order to buy more BTC since 2011?  2011 was a very tumultuous year in BTC-landia..

Surely, I was not even cognizant of BTC in 2011 besides maybe I might have heard the word, but I really don't remember having any kind of meaningful knowledge at all about BTC, besides hearing the name, until late 2013.

I mean in 2011, the BTC price went from sub $1 to $32 and back to $2 and up to $5.

Those would have been decently trying times for any BTC HODLer, also maybe which part of 2011 that you got into BTC and how much you got in for, approximately how many coins relative to your overall wealth or investments in other things could be factors, too.

Even though I don't really have any reason to NOT believe you, but shouldn't we be taking your representation regarding HODLer status and trying to relate to some of us more active HODLers with a decently-sized grain of salt, especially if you do not provide us with any kind of meaningful context regarding what HODLer since 2011 means exactly.  

For example, there is a difference between obtaining 10 BTC and forgetting about them for a few years, or holding 1,000 BTC or more, but if you were a person of considerable financial means, then even having 1,000 or more BTC might have just been stuck in some kind of "forgot about" location, but is that a HODLer in the same kind of way that many of us current quasi-aware-and-in-touch BTC HODLers would consider BTCHODLing?

I mean, even if you got a decent stash of BTC in 2011 in the 100s or more, what did you do between 2011 and late 2017 when your account got registered on this forum?  Did you get your BTC from MTGOX or some other methodology of obtaining them?  There were not too many ways to get BTC in 2011.  Mining is another story, but that would be more of a complicated and involved story, too, which would have likely caused you to have some decent amount of actively monitoring your BTC stash, no?

Unless you were largely detached from even understanding the value of your BTC holdings (which is possible), then maybe you would have done something with your BTC stash since 2011?  There has been a whole hell of a lot of BTC movement and development in BTC since 2011, and in other words, that is a long and difficult amount of time in BTClandia - including a lot of damned uncertainties regarding price and even BTC's likely success, and there are hardly any actual active people in BTC-landia that bought any significant amount of BTC in 2011 and did not do anything with their BTC between 2011 and 2017 and even currently..... Those would be unicorn kinds of people, and therefore there should be some kind of a story there...

Surely, I personally take any inference of the existence of any unicorn with a decently-sized grain of salt.  

Also, it is possible that you had another account in this forum?  Your current user name is only registered in late 2017 - which registration of such account happened to have happened during our last BTC run-up hype, but might not have been a great time for anyone to have been registering an account here who had a 2011 HODL BTC stash to register an account during mania times - but sure, anything is possible, I suppose, but still seems like it would be an interesting backstory - especially if you assert that you just held through all of the chaos and that you were NOT monitoring your BTC investment.  

On the other hand, if your investment in BTC in 2011 had seemed to have been a decently small amount from your perspective (depending on your other investments, even several hundred BTC could have seemed like a very small investment), but then all of a sudden, BTC's price had risen in 2017 had perked your attention because all of a sudden what you had considered as a kind of "write-off" investment began to become way more valuable than all of the rest of your non-btc investment portfolio combined... hahahahahaha.. That could be plausible, too, but we should hear that from you rather than me, no?

TLDR: (somebody made a request that I do this "TLDR" thingie-ma-jiggie a decently long time ago, so therefore I am trying to conform a little bit) What is the context of your proclaimed HODLer of BTC since 2011 status, serveria?

[HairyMaclairy]

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You can keep pushing that narrative but no one wants to use a fork owned and run by Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright. Or Roger Ver for that matter.  I don’t know how you can stand associating yourself with those characters.

Funny how I'm clearly talking about BTC, and you yammer on about personalities associated with other Bitcoins.

Oh so you want another hard fork of Bitcoin?  Go for it, we won’t stop you !

[mindrust]

Serveria surely don't have the confidence of a hodler from 2011.

Acts more like a guy who sold his house and went all in when btc was $20k

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You are a dweeb, jbreher.  Ongoingly throwing out amorphous accusations that bitcoin is broken in some kind of way, when you likely realize that the target of your various ongoing complaints are features and not bugs.  aka shilling (or more likely govt. agent).   

[JayJuanGee]

Serveria surely don't have the confidence of a hodler from 2011.

Acts more like a guy who sold his house and went all in when btc was $20k

That could be true.

There are a decent number of people who just make shit up, and if they can get away with it, they like to present such a story.

In late 2017, I was filtering out several people who wanted to buy through local bitcoins, and it just got really overwhelming how many people wanted to buy, but also several of the people would just lie to my face and act like they been in BTC for a long time.  They were buying at $16k or whatever, but acting like they had been engaged in such buying behaviors for years and years.  Where the fuck were they in 2015 and 2016, when the BTC market was more calm?  I did not have evidence that they were not what they claimed to be, but there were a lot of them in 2016 who were trying to set up an ongoing and high buying relationship with me during that time, and I was trying to limit my buys... None of the crazies really added up.