Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.

It also depends on your income. I'm not 20 but still at the start of my career, without a good diploma, so not a great salary. Most of my savings go towards my company's stock, as it's making a matching contribution, it's a safe bet I can't overlook. I was in the stock market but sold everything as it became scary, two years later it has basically not moved (French stock market), so I just lost some dividends, but got peace of mind. Overall I'm 30% company stock, 30% cash, 40% BTC, with BTC's share quite volatile obviously. At current prices I couldn't even buy 1BTC/year so not really worth it, better keep cash and buy when it's lower. I want to put the company stock and some/most of the cash towards a home with a small mortgage on top, after that I might put more money towards BTC, but not even sure, I'd like some land, maybe a bit of forest.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

In that case you also need physical gold, stashed at home. An ETF or whatever is useless. Stashing at home has its own downsides.

Well, each of us has to make a choice.  I know that I invested into a 401k plan that had employer matching, for well over 15 years, and I would max out that 401k plan to the tax deductible limit.  However I did not know about BTC druing that time, so I am not really what would have happened in those pre-2014 days. 

So, yeah, currently, if I was building my investments, I probably would maximize at least the matching portion of the fund first, and then consider whether I should maximize the tax deductible portion before allocating to BTC.  People might decide differently, but there is a certain level of attractiveness and even convenience to have a decent amount of your investment funds under one roof.

Regarding Armageddon, I am still suggesting that guys gotta be fucking super careful regarding how much credence that they are giving to Armageddon scenarios that are likely in the less than 1%  likelihood and h9ow much of their value are they investing into such a low likely scenario.

Do the fuck what you like, ultimately, but it is also good to attempt to grapple with the probabilities and don't be fucking investing way the fuck higher than the probabilities that you even assign to such events.  Yeah, if you happen to be an Armageddon nutjob then you are going to assign higher values to that so there is ONLY so much that normal people can  talk the dumb out of dumb, so do the fuck what you like if you are assigning higher probabilities to such situations.

[jojo69]

...not into fitness girls...

 

[JayJuanGee]

It will take several more months to get shit re-arranged. Miss you all (even JJG. Sort of).

Well, I am glad that you sort of miss me, and hopefully you are able to catch up on everything  - not a bad thing to have a lot of balls in the air, as long as you are feeling that none of them are getting too out-of-control.  Look forward to seeing you in a few months, and insulting you in some kind of meaningless way, too.         

[JayJuanGee]

Its strangely quiet around here.  JJG took a day off  , Roach not enlightening us with rare never before seen knowledge about metals, centralization designs, and pyramids.  

Can you imagine that JJG is an alter ego of our poor scrochie? This could be a real conspiracy theory.

Yeah, but it is dumb as fuck, with nearly pure fantasy.

Get a grip, degxtra1.   

[JayJuanGee]

I've never sodl a single satoshi since the day I've started accumulating in 2016.

Cryptotourist's other points are also true.

Don't like me just because I make moon predictions. I only tell what I (can) see ahead of us.

I was calling 3k (theymos did too), last year when we were going down.

Anyway just ignore me if you don't like me.

First, it seems to be true that you have been a bit overly bearish and nearly cheering for the downside.

Second, who gives any fucks if theymos also happened to be calling for $3k?  That does not make calling for $3k correct or even reasonable.

Third, in recent times, lambie also seems to have a bit of a hard-on for bearish framings, just like ivomm mentioned/highlighted.

[mindrust]

I don't understand how I am bearish with all the charts I've shared.

There isn't a single bearish chart I shared in the last 6 months at least.

All I said was "If it drops below that level I am a buyer but I think and want it to go up." Corrections will happen just like it happened before. They may be big or small but they do happen and every once in a while they create a good buying opportunity especially in bull markets. Like it or not, they do happen.

I couldn't believe it when serveria called me a bear and now there are 3 of you guys.

I think you need to read my posts more carefully. I don't know how many times I repeated that we are in a bull market I am not going to quote those posts because at this point I am starting to think that I am being trolled.

P.S. Leave lambie alone.

[JayJuanGee]

Finally, my deposit of $300 arrived at the exchange. Unlike some others, I enjoy market buys no matter the price. After 2 weeks I will buy with another $800. I will sell them when I make a 10% profit.... Just kidding of course. Anything under 1000% profit is out of consideration for me.

And all goes to my HW. Although some of the investors trade with a portion like 10%, I refuse to trade. The reasons are multiple - not your keys not your coins, hazards of the market and last but not least, every selling damages the ecosystem. Imagine if all investors decide to sell 10% of their stash after each small increase on 3-4 exchanges. That's around 1.8 mil coins (or a "bit" less if we count the lost coins)! So, for me such bahaviour is irresponsible and holding back the growth of the price. Thanks God not everyone is like that.

I would not be knocking shaving off strategies, because such shaving off strategies can be completely prudent, especially if a portfolio is considerably in profits and if a person's accumulation goal is achieved or even greatly exceeded.

Of course, if you are still in a largely accumulation stage, then you are going to be questioning other strategies, especially if you are having difficulties relating to their being in a different stage than you.

By the way, bitcoin has made me rich as fuck, and pretty much I can shave off 1% of the value of my BTC for every 10% rise in BTC into perpetuity, and it really is not going to end up eating into the value of my BTC holdings in any kind of meaningful way, it just gives me way fucking more fiat to spend on whatever the fuck I want., if I so choose.

[El duderino_]

Naaaah you good man (@mindrust)

Keep speaking your mind/thought cause thats why we are here for

And if people would think wrong or wouldn’t like what you think, Then thats there problem!

[JayJuanGee]

Its strangely quiet around here.  JJG took a day off  , Roach not enlightening us with rare never before seen knowledge about metals, centralization designs, and pyramids.  

Can you imagine that JJG is an alter ego of our poor scrochie? This could be a real conspiracy theory.

I have to admit, I would be impressed if that turned out to be the case, mainly because pulling off the JJG persona as an artifice would be serious art.

My persona (or avatar) is no artifice!!!!!!!!



jo-squared!!!!!

[600watt]

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

let us hope he is using the famous never-come-back-airline 

[ivomm]

Naaaah you good man (@mindrust)

Keep speaking your mind/thought cause thats why we are here for

And if people would think wrong or wouldn’t like what you think, Then thats there problem!

Of course, Mic, nobody is forbidding anyone from speaking. Obviously not even neo-nazis like r0ach, unfortunately. But there are people who may be tempted to use their reputation to imprint fear in the others (which is a definition of FUD). How we can recognized it? If that person starts with something like "Bad news" when there is no news, or makes a bearish predicition which he repeats... I don't know, may be 10 times or more in the last 6 months. And if he openly admits that he missed the oportunity to buy at some price. Then it is obvious to me that we should not be influended by his dramatic chart analysis. That's all.

May be they are wonderful persons in real life, but not everyone is so good like you Mic to give prizes and encourage others with the best possible advices. I've became a convinced hodler because of people like you, JJG, 600Watt, LFC Bitcoin, etc.... I mean, my ideas, education, understanding about Bitcoin meet completely theirs. Not because I believed the gloom and doom predictions. So my mission is to say openly the truth and encourage all to turn their back to the panic selling or waiting for unreal low prices because of trolling, FUD, etc.

And as for lambie and mindrust, I believe they need some time to develop the right thinking. In this respect I said they are new to the Bitcoin world. Others learn faster. I needed only 10 months in the midst of all the fork and Chinese ban drama to develop my thinking and mental resilience both in losing and winning periods. But not everyone is the same. The problem is that the time is limited. And if someone is on the wrong track, soon he will miss the last oportunity for a massive profit.

[JayJuanGee]

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia

Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.

Oh gosh... That seems to be a high level of certainty that you are placing on something that I attribute, approximately 1% odds.

Maybe that is part of the explanation for our differing views?

[JayJuanGee]

In 2015 I sold 800 BTC to buy a house for my family.

In 2018 I sold my house and bought back 50 BTC.

People who thinks I'm crazy for selling my house please know that my only regret is to have sold my bitcoins.

Investment in Real Estate is now garbage comparing to #Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinization/status/1161310562866880513?s=21

Story for a Dumbass or a Legend?

I see he’s brave to admit his wrong being and buying back BTC there should be merit in that act, but F*** how dumb to sold all of his BTC for a house..... (I think all of his BTC, not sure but if he had left it should be more so he wouldn’t sell the house to buy again 50 ....)

That is fucking crazy to have sold that many BTC in 2015 - clearly 2015 was a BIG ASS dip in the market for pretty much the whole year....   Pretty much mid-$200s for the whole year (bouncing around some, of course).

Lack of delayed gratification.

If the short-sighted guy knew that he wanted a house, he could have sold some in 2014 in the $600 plus territory (maybe not all of them) or just waited the matter out until 2017.. or even taken out a mortgage... but whatever, its a form of short-sightedness in a decently strong kind of way.   The buy back of the house for only 50 BTC shows how god-damned difficult it would be to get anywhere close to 800 BTC ever again for a person with such a seemingly average budget.

The future when you were in the past is always ... you can't predict these things with any accuracy. You could make a very good educated guess, but the saying is "hindsight is 20/20" ... or is that 2020 (next year?).

Everyone says we should have all bought corns back in 2013 or 2012 (or as early as you were introduced to bitcoin.)

I mean, I bought corn at maybe $25 and sold them at $50. I bought litecorns at $10 and sold them at $20. I could have participated in the ETH ICO at 1 BTC = 2000 ETH. And I could have just HODL those all until today and I'd be as retired as anyone else.

But ... as it is, I'm still struggling to make ends meet.

Well, maybe I am being a bit too harsh?  I am just such an advocate for incrementalism and long-term investing, so I have a decent amount of reservations and criticisms when people play around too much with large portions of their BTC stash.  I have been like this since I started investing in BTC in late 2013.  Of course, I have refined some of my investing strategies and my thinking about bitcoin, but I always thought that it is something that should be accumulated, and invested in such a way that you have the rest of you financial matters covered (in other words, you are not investing more than you can lose and you are not tempted to sell it, especially in large quantities).

So, yeah, I do recognize that a  decent number of reasonable people have sold way too much BTC and way too soon, and I am having some difficulties to relate in a material way, since it is not something that I would do or to plan in that direction.

Of course, I am also stuck with my own experience in starting in bitcoin in late 2013 and also after I had already established a pretty decent investment portfolio, so I am sure that my perspective would have likely been carved differently, if I had gotten into bitcoin at a different time and if my financial situation would have been materially different (such as starting out with a very small BTC investment budget), at the time that I got into bitcoin.

[600watt]

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.

Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

Yeah, Bob chill out man. You’ve been through a couple of bitcoin cycles now so you know what to expect. I’m the same, I panic sometimes but look at the bigger picture. You’re already independently wealthy, I can promise you that you’ll be a lot richer at the end of 2021. Everything before then is just noise. The halvening will do what it always does - Limit the supply & with increased demand comes higher prices.

Moon by the end of 2021!

Smile!

hodling btc is not easy. especially when you doing for years and years. seems to me that lots of hodlers (including myself) from time to time get really stressed out about it. the volatility. the FUD. waking up in the morning and you need to check charts on mobile to make sure you did not get broke overnight. almost no one to talk to about it, except the brotherhood of WO. msmedia painting btc as "terrorist/drug money". all the scams. all the shitcoins. how much is enough? hodling is a 24/7 job and it does not forgive weak moments. it changes the hodlers mind.
bob, you did everything right. be proud.
stay strong folks.

[Cryptotourist]

Of course, Mic, nobody is forbidding anyone from speaking. Obviously not even neo-nazis like r0ach, unfortunately. But there are people who may be tempted to use their reputation to imprint fear in the others (which is a definition of FUD). How we can recognized it? If that person starts with something like "Bad news" when there is no news, or makes a bearish predicition which he repeats... I don't know, may be 10 times or more in the last 6 months. And if he openly admits that he missed the oportunity to buy at some price. Then it is obvious to me that we should not be influended by his dramatic chart analysis. That's all.

May be they are wonderful persons in real life, but not everyone is so good like you Mic to give prizes and encourage others with the best possible advices. I've became a convinced hodler because of people like you, JJG, 600Watt, LFC Bitcoin, etc.... I mean, my ideas, education, understanding about Bitcoin meet completely theirs. Not because I believed the gloom and doom predictions. So my mission is to say openly the truth and encourage all to turn their back to the panic selling or waiting for lower prices because of trolling, FUD, etc.

And as for lambie and mindrust, I believe they need some time to develop the right thinking. In this respect I said they are new to the Bitcoin world. Others learn faster. I needed only 10 months in the midst of all the fork and Chinese ban drama to develop my thinking. But not everyone is the same. The problem is that the time is limited. And if someone is on the wrong track, soon he will miss the last oportunity for a massive profit.

Let's be clear.
We are both (Lambie & mindtrust also included) uber bullish on BTC - medium to long term (as for yourself also short term).

My objection was to the powerful unsubstantiated choice of words you used for our fellow bull brothers.

Also my insta-bottom prediction of ~ $7k is valid only until the end of September.
That means that I'm expecting to move sideways between $8k-$11k in that time frame.
The closer we get to that date, the less chances we have to meet it - which makes it by default - the last chance to pick up some coins at the 4 digit range.

All that said, BTC is showing true grit at the $10k battle.
The following 2592000 seconds are critical.

#

@cryptotourist - morning buddy!

Have a goodnight dawg!

[600watt]

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.

i got it now. all those years you were trying to entertain us. good joke, i giggled.

[Wilhelm]

Where is your sidekick ibian? He is not around for a while is he? I don't remember seeing him lately.

He always disappears during "sailing season".

That bastard. Without us.



Ill get one too when I become rich.

I'm pretty sure the two hot women at the end of the boat picture, would cost a lot more to maintain than buying/upkeep on the boat!

Just saying.

Oh, re-read, you meant the boat, silly me.

My own fantasies got in the way of your boat purchase fantasy.

My bad.

Brad

It depends on which country those hot girls are, better pick the girls from your local and if you want to cut the maintenance cost for girls then marry them.

I suppose. I'm in the Midwest, so to save space I could get a local girl that would take up the same room as both girls on the boat together. Nah!

Two or None! Is my new motto!

(I should make a flag)

Brad

Love your motto,I think its time to reconsider about my motto! like increasing from one side chick to 10. MILFs also included,

Benneteau oceanis 65 is on my list too ❤️. Only $750k or so...  ☺️.

[600watt]

This is even worse than the pizza guy. Most people don't know who he his, this guy made a tweet which went viral with his face. It's still growing to this day:

https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665

I would never be able to sleep at night ever again. The moral of the story is of course and as always: HODL, at any rate.

i want to print this wall sized and put it on the ceiling of my sleeping room. will be the first and last thing to read every day. puts things in perspective.

[mindrust]

Benneteau oceanis 65 is on my list too ❤️. Only $750k or so...  ☺️.

This is a Bavaria though, I believe.

Beneteau, Bavaria, Jeanneau are more or less the same thing. They are like Mercedes, BMW and Audi's of the yacht world. Some may see them as VW's too. Mass production, good quality, good worldwide dealership network and arguably, more affordable prices compared to their competitors.

Your $750k Oceanis 65 probably would have a price tag of a $1m+ if it was made by some other company. 65ft is overkill btw unless you are thinking to use it commercially. The boat I shared is only 46ft.

[Wilhelm]

This is even worse than the pizza guy. Most people don't know who he his, this guy made a tweet which went viral with his face. It's still growing to this day:

https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665

I would never be able to sleep at night ever again. The moral of the story is of course and as always: HODL, at any rate.

i want to print this wall sized and put it on the ceiling of my sleeping room. will be the first and last thing to read every day. puts things in perspective.

Would have been $17M today 😎