Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Btw I thing my friend told me at 350-ish = he Said imagine this thing could rise crazy high with only a 10% chance of succeeding.... Then you must invest, and for him the % of success where much higher but nontheless imo you already should invest with thinking this.... might be b00ze talking now, and F*** mindrust go all-in bro, be more happy with your wealth in BTC as in crypto especially when there are no unexpected costs looking around the corner.... 

Personally, it seems to me that mindrust has a pretty decent approach, even though sometimes i do not really agree with him, and also he seems to go through a quite a lot of emotional turmoil regarding what to do exactly, yet I believe that he maintains most of his sanity by keeping some funds in fiat rather than "going all in."   

I do recognize that a decent number of people do kick themselves on a regular basis asserting that they should have gone all in at time x or time y or time z, and they had the money to do so, but they did not have the balls.  Seems like those people would be easily shaken too, so even though each of us may have tendencies to second guess ourselves in this regard, we have to balance an investment strategy and approach for the present, and not regretting about the past, and our present assessment has to prepare ourselves at each present time for either UP or DOWN, so in that regard, it comes off as way too foolish in the gambling direction to be going "all in" or anywhere close to "all in" when a guy (or gal) is hardly even close to confident regarding bitcoin's price direction - short term, medium term or even trepidations about long term.

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[realr0ach]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

'Stock to flow' only works on real, physical commodity resources humans actually need, not Bitcoins which are imaginary, valueless timestamps and not a commodity or resource.  If stock to flow worked on digital shitcoins, there would not be numerous dead, PoW, digital craptocurrencies out there already - they would still be alive.  

Things like "KanyeWestCoin", "TrumpCoin", and "CryptoShekel" would just steadily increase in price forever due to halvings - an artificial scarcity Ponzi scam - reducing supply.  But that is not what happens because nobody on the face of the planet actually needs any imaginary digital scamcoin because they aren't resources.  If you hoard all 21 million digital shitcoins, you have zero power because it's not a real commodity resource and you can't force anyone to buy them from you.  If you hoard a real form of commodity money like silver, the world actually needs it so you get to charge whatever the market can bear and 'stock to flow' actually works.  This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

[JayJuanGee]

It is physically painful to be slowly drip feeding, dollar cost averaging, into a very large, multi-year leveraged long right now on super low leverage.  It hurts to buy and every day see you have lost a little bit more.

The greatest long term trades are always incredibly painful to enter.  This helps me to keep going.  

Sounds painful.   Maybe should convert your system to the mindless one?  similar to the mindless system that i had heard of somewhere, can't remember exactly, where.  From what I do recall that the "mindless system" tends to have less pain, except perhaps during the very extreme moments, and surely we are not in one of those, currently.

Wished I could remember exactly where I had heard about that "mindless system", because I would surely share it with you hairymcberry, in order that you would not have to suffer so muchie.

And the companionship of this board and your brilliant jokes !  And my dollar cost average keeps falling.  So carry on.

I identify this as the lovey dovey part of your post.   

[realr0ach]

Incoming stupid JayJuanGee post pretending he's wiser than Aristotle and not a simple fly by night, digital scamcoin grifter.

[actmyname]

But that is not what happens because nobody on the face of the planet actually needs any imaginary digital scamcoin because they aren't resources.

You mean I can't sell my YeCoin?

[realr0ach]

It doesn’t matter what miners think or choose.

Another day of noobs and scammers that don't know how bitcoin is *supposed* to work and think it's some sort of proof of stake system.  The entire point of PoW is that miners are supposed to be the only thing that matters.  You're not supposed to be forced to buy coins from a middleman exchange and face price gouge extortion by cartels if you want to use Bitcoin.  YOU - meaning everyone that uses the system - are supposed to BE the miner and mine your own coins, and that's where decentralization is supposed to originate from.

It requires some form of permanent, commodified, off the shelf, non-cornered, mining hardware, which has been shown to be impossible with things like ASICs, so Bitcoin's death really occurred the day the first ASIC was created and it's all just pump and dump scam ever since.  The simple act of claiming "what miners do doesn't matter" is just admitting the fact that Bitcoin is a failure, that mining turns into a completely centralized cartel with absolutely nothing resembling a Nash equilibrium at all.  Instead of admitting Bitcoin is a designed to centralize failure, they just make up some random bullshit claiming miners don't matter to try and keep the Ponzi going.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I only partially understand your reasoning, I understand that you'll need sanity too when it reaches 100k but I think it would be more just the emotional toll of the price and everything resting on it as it swings. I had this issue personally, I used sold bitcoins as a downpayment on my house.... in November 2018 (yup) luckily I sold at high 6000s but when I had everything in riding on Bitcoin that market was such an emotional beating.

Probably part of your mistake that you seem to acknowledge was that you had too much invested into BTC, and I suppose if you cashed out profitable, you were still better off for the gamble of too much into BTC that you had taken...

If you cashed out your BTC at a loss, then that's another story.

I consider that I had made a pretty decent -sized mistake in November 2018, too. 

In early 2018, I had begun the planning of a construction project that had some uncertainties regarding how long it was going to take and when exactly the bills would come due and if they would trickle in over an extended period of time or all come in at once.

So, by late October early November, many of the bills were coming in and they were looking like they would be due between November and January - depending on various stages that the work was getting done.   I think that there were some cost overruns, too, so fuck, by the time I figured out my cashflow in light of the overruns, I saw that the only reasonable thing was going to cash out about 3.5% of additional bitcoin as a kind of cashflow cushion.. and a kind of insurance to have the cash on hand through at least January.

So, yeah, I was kind of kicking myself for having to sell 3.5% of my bitcoin, and I ended up making such sale around $4k on average. Over subsequent months and until about April 1 (before the BTC price boom), I was able to repurchase about 25% of those sold coins for at or below the sale price, but I still had kind of kicking myself for taking a gamble that did not really pay off and forced me to sell a portion of my stash at a time that was somewhat inconvenient for me, also based on the dip in BTC price, too.

Now it's just an investment, im not putting everything into it, I don't give a fuck about the market moves. When it 3100 I remember being so much more relaxed and buying some coin. I don't think I could have my retirement or kids college funds in crypto, id be a fucking nervous wreck.

Probably, you would not feel as anxious about having some of those longer term plans in bitcoin, if you are much more in profits.  I am not sure.  Each of us is different.  I went from 65% in the red in early 2015, to nearly 28x in profits in late 2017 and even with the dip down to $3,122 in late 2018, I was still well over 4x in profits and at current prices my holdings are in the ballpark of 14x profits.  So it is a bit more difficult to be stressful about whether I am putting anything long term at risk. 

Currently, I have a tentative plan that involves employing a BTC liquidation plan that I believe to be a kind of passive way to have an income from BTC that involves in the coming years, to start to cash out 1% of my BTC stash every quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k.  If the price is below $5k, then I will wait to cash out and likely buy instead of sell any BTC. 

Of course, my cashing out plan has not started yet, it is tentatively not even going to start for a few years, but still, I feel a certain level of confidence about the plan in regards to feeling that the condition of not cashing out any BTC because BTC prices are below $5k are not very likely to be met... so in that regard, once I start cashing out, I pretty much have a passive income flowing for life... so really hard to feel nervous or stressed about being in that kind of a situation, no?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG - I remember well in 2014 you were sitting on incredible losses, I think you were even worse in the red than me
I was at a 50% loss of total investment in 2014 through to early 2015. It’s really cool to be on the same journey for a similar amount of time to a lot of people now. I’ll have to recalculate my total investment to unrealised profit again later & let you know how many x I am in profit now because it’s changed a bit now. I’ve invested another $20,000 into BTC since the crash from $19,xxx.

[realr0ach]

@JJG - I remember well in 2014 you were sitting on incredible losses

Might get to see a repeat of that.  The average man on the street is completely tapped out.  The millenial generation supposedly has 40% less wealth than the previous generation did at the same age.  I wouldn't be surprised if that figure was low-balled and they have even less.  In other words, there is nobody that exists to take the other side of the trade and be the greater fool to buy imaginary, valueless, digital scamcoins.
JayJuanGee's only hope is literally for Jamie Dimon himself to be the greater fool and come in and buy digital shitcoins from him.  What could go wrong?

[JayJuanGee]

Hi J1GGY !! Can you please tell me, what is the meaning of "Wall Observer", as in the title of this glorious thread?

No.

It was a genuine question, as I'm unfamiliar with the term - what does "Wall Observer" mean?

I suppose that i have some difficulties taking serious a question that is easily answered by reading the OP of this thread.

Seems like basic requirements to genuinely participate in any thread in terms of asking questions about the meaning of the thread, blah blah blah.. would you not at least read OP and wouldn't you at least present such question by stating what homework that you had already done?

Therefore comes off as a trolling approach...

But, as I am a glutton for punishment of the trolls, I will answer by just saying that walls have to do with order books, so originally we looked at GOX order books, and mostly the walls have been Bitstamp order books, even though some of the other exchanges might be presented or discussed from time to time.  Recently, bitstamp discontinued one of its order book webpages that would give quite a visual of the buy/sell order book walls.  You can do a historical browsing through this thread to see pictures of the website.

Edit:  see this response by bkbirge, also  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51941627#msg51941627

Usually it is good to 1) figure out your own situation and whether it allows you to reasonably invest in bitcoin 2) and if your situation allows you to invest in bitcoin, develop a plan, try to stick with the plan and tweak the plan from time to time.  Some form of dollar cost averaging, even if your are doing low amounts, such as $20 a week can pay off in the long term and from time to time, you may be able to invest more than your allocated amount.

Although I've expressed interest in understanding the application of cryptography, as has been done with bitcoin, I find it strange that your primary response is to encourage out-of-pocket investment in the project/experiment.

I could give two shits if you invest or not, but I do believe that a person can much more actively engage by starting to buy small amounts of BTC while studying the phenomenon... but whatever do what you like.

Your questioning me about my motives causes me to think that you might be thinking that I am trying to sell or pump something, and I could give two shits if you invest.  Bitcoin is likely to go up in value in the coming years whether you invest or not and even if a whole hell of a lot of scared peeps are sitting on the sideline.  Bitcoin does not need mass adoption in order for it to prosper, and in fact mass adoption is going to come to bitcoin, even if there is no marketing of it.

I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?

Bitcoin is a hedge and likely a non correlated asset.  Of course, you can invest for a variety of reason, but sound money and a hedge is one of the best of reasons.

Maybe a better way to follow up would be to ask why YOU'VE invested in bitcoin? Is it one of the above reasons? All the above reasons? Something completely different?

I started investing in late 2013, and largely I was considering bitcoin to be a hedge against my other investments.  So initially, I created a plan to dollar cost average accumulate bitcoin for 6 months while studying it, and then I extended another 6 months, and by the end of 2014, I had pretty much reached my hedging target of having about 10% of my quasi-liquid assets in BTC.  My reasons have not really changed since late 2014, even though I have begun to engage in maintenance and also figuring out ways to profit from nearly inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility... but largely I continue in a kind of maintenance mode since late 2014 - even though I am a whole hell of a lot less nervous about my BTC investment these days as compared with late 2014 because my investment is way into profits, which causes me to be much more relaxed about the whole situation.

Once you own a bit of bitcoin, then it becomes a bit easier to actively engage in the topic.

Maybe I am naive, but I do not see why this would be the case; can we not have valid and insightful discussion on the subject without being financially invested?

There are a lot of no coiners who do not know shit about bitcoin, but they try to act like they understand it.  I have learned, in my many years of life, that I am able to learn about a thing a whole lot better when I have experience with it.  

Bitcoin is one of the easiest things in the world to invest in.  We did not have those kinds of opportunities when I was younger and beginning my investments (say more than 30 years ago), so I used to invest in bonds and later index funds, and bitcoin is way the fuck easier to invest into, but the choice is yours on that, and you can study it and wait and whatever.. also if you want to set up accounts, sometimes it can take a while to get verified, so maybe some of the options to get in are not necessarily as easy as they were when I started in late 2013 and acquired more ways to get BTC in 2014 and some of those avenues are more KYC intensive, these days.

Some no coiners have their bitcoin ignorant traits because they are not actively engaging with the topic by at least setting up accounts or whatever in order to get some better ideas about what bitcoin actually is.

I'm not sure I believe that setting up an account on an exchange (and acquiring bitcoin) will do anything to further the individual's understanding of the technology itself.

O.k.... don't do it then.  I am not saying that you need to know anything about the technology, except maybe to understand that bitcoin is the only sound money.. but could take a while for you to come to that realization anyhow.

Let me ask another question, what is YOUR understanding of the technology?

I am not technologically sophisticated, so I don't program or anything like that.  I believe that I have acquired decent understandings about bitcoin but I doubt that my understanding really boils down to technical knowledge or even an ability to sort through technical claims - even though from time to time I am presented with a variety of technical claims and I do sometimes have to make decisions about what kinds of claims seem more credible or not.. especially claims from various bitcoin wannabe coins who are imitating bitcoin and trying to suggest that something is wrong with bitcoin.  Hey, there are network effects too that causes a protocol like bitcoin to stay on top, and those network effects are not likely to leave bitcoin unless there are some defects in bitcoin, so frequently you will see bitcoin naysayers, altcoin pumpers suggesting that bitcoin is broken in some kind of way that their project is going to fix, and frequently those are exaggerated claims that are not based on either facts or logic, so I can usually recognize the bullshit in the claims of other coins trying to act like they are bitcoin 2.0 based on exaggerated assertions.

I'm not sure I believe that setting up an account on an exchange (and acquiring bitcoin) will do anything to further the individual's understanding of the technology itself.

Let me ask another question, what is YOUR understanding of the technology?

You won’t learn much until you buy some and use it. Log off this board and go buy some VPN services using Bitcoin and you will understand.

Maybe he wants to use bcash, or bcash sv, or ethereum, or dash or ripple?   Guys who ask these kinds of "technology" questions are frequently so much smarter than the rest of us regular bitcoiners that they are lured into bullshit scam coins for purportedly legitimate "technology" reasons.  But, you can only do so much in order to let the newbies experiment with all other coins until they end up losing their money and having to chase after the bitcoin train a few years later.

[VB1001]

I knew it, the GOOSE, is SATOSHI


Kleiman v. Wright Case Update: Man From Belgium Tells Judge He Is Satoshi

“I hereby testify, by written letter — I am the genuine and only originator/creator of the genesis block of the Bitcoin blockchain. I used the handle Satoshi Nakamoto and mail Satoshin@GMX.com to write and publish the whitepaper bitcoin.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/kleiman-v-wright-case-update-man-from-belgium-tells-judge-he-is-satoshi

Mic...

[realr0ach]

I knew it, the GOOSE, is SATOSHI

Kleiman v. Wright Case Update: Man From Belgium Tells Judge He Is Satoshi

And he argues for...socialism...plus mandatory biometric ID chain anchor in a cashless society slavery system so people can't double dip on the welfare socialism.  Totally legit....

[jojo69]

WO thread needs major cleanup. Piles and piles of nonsense...

truer words...

[VB1001]

Pantera Capital

We initially published this forecast in January ($3,700/BTC) using pricing data from Dec '10 thru Dec '18. During that time, bitcoin grew at a 235% CAGR. 

If #bitcoin reverts to its long-term trend by end of:

2019 :: $42k
2020 :: $122k
2021 :: $356k

https://twitter.com/PanteraCapital/status/1154074046692286475



Good morning WO,s

10000 again.

BTCullish

[jojo69]

555 means something! If you can't count 555 can

[realr0ach]

I think there's some sort of extreme mental illness in a lot of humans.  Take for example this Dan Morehead guy from Pantera Capital and Mike Novogratz.  I don't know the exact number, but these people are worth like half a billion to a billion dollars.  Besides building a Dyson sphere, it's enough money to do just about whatever you want to do.  Instead of going off and doing whatever, these people spend their lives in financial conferences to try and make EVEN MORE money off financial Ponzi scams.

So, at that point none of it is really about anything other than power over other humans, which leads to two pathways - some form of latent psychopathy, or a more general, primitive, bonobo-style, ape-like desire to be the most important ape in the totem pole. In other words, it's not really possible for these people to be 'advanced' or smart.  They can only really be one of two things, psychopaths or primitive monkeys seeking social hierarchy, power structure relevance due to the way they spend their time.  The alternative argument would be they want to 'shape' the world in their image somehow, but I doubt many of these tech billionaires have any real coherent plan that isn't just some offshoot of psychopathy or bonobo egoism and you're back to square one.

[JayJuanGee]

This really isn't the place for these post but Bitcoin sv and Bitcoin cash aren't Bitcoin, just forks and they could never be "Bitcoin".

I'm not suggesting that other projects or hard-forks "are bitcoin", nor am I suggesting that they have a direct effect on the fundamentals of the bitcoin protocol, I'm simply asking why the arbitrary variables set in the bitcoin protocol are "better" than the variables set in the protocols of other projects.

That is part of the problem of getting too caught up on technological reasoning rather than sound money reasoning.

The new and improved bitcoin 2.0s might be better, but who gives any shits.

Bitcoin remains superior even if some of the others come up with better technology, because bitcoin is not broken.  You gotta cause bitcoin to actually be broken or inferior in a stupendous way before the improvement of various technicals actually matters.

Now about litecoin and other altcoins, you'll find plenty screaming how coina or coinb is better and the future but the truth is these (all other projects) are all faulted in one way or another.

That's a huge claim and you've provided no evidence that this is in fact true.

That's part of the point that you don't seem to get Amateur_.  You see that neither kingcolex nor anyone in bitcoin needs to prove anything.

Shitcoins have to prove themselves and convince peeps to go over to them before any kind of burden might shift to bitcoin to have to prove itself.

If you believe that you see enough supposed deficiencies in bitcoin, then go ahead and invest in those other projects with the wish that bitcoin's network effects are going to transfer over to those other coins.  You will be just like a whole hell of a lot of other wishful thinking shitcoin supporters who are endlessly and likely futilely waiting for their coin to pump and for Bitcoin's network effects to go over to them, when bitcoin is not sufficiently broken enough to cause peeps to move.

I've heard the "first mover advantage" mentioned, along with terms like "the network effect", but I'm yet to hear a convincing argument for the superiority of the bitcoin protocol, when compared with others in the space.

My concern can easily be written off if the argument for the superiority of bitcoin is its current price action, but this highlights again the underlying majority view that bitcoin is simply a tool for gambling, doesn't it?

Yes.  Sounds like you want to continue to be blind.  Yes.  Wait for the arguments that bitcoin is better, they are not going to come.  So you can go off and choose your other coin or just chose to be another loser nocoiner who will be chasing the bitcoin train in the next few years when it goes above $100k... or maybe you won't start chasing the bitcoin train until is is in the supra $500k arena.

Litecoin is the "silver to bitcoins gold" but most have instamine, ico's, masternode scams, ease of 51% attacks, Led by a leader and more.

It's true that we can't write off all non-bitcoin projects as scams; it's also true that a large number of other projects are in fact scams.

So, what makes bitcoin better than those other projects which are not scams, and which are effectively clones of bitcoin with minor differences?

Again.... you think that bitcoin has some kind of burden to prove itself.  It doesn't.  It already has the gravity of sound money, if you happen to understand what that is.

Bitcoin is where it's at due to a few factors, strong history, strong DISTRIBUTED hashrate, quality or devs, launch history, use and development.

Bitcoin is where WHAT'S at?
The totally massive and radical financial gains potential?

Likely most value is going to gravitate into the asset with the strongest sound money features, and there are no other coins or projects that even come close to bitcoin in this regard, so until such a thing happens that some other coin has a stronger sound money situation, then value will gravitate into bitcoin as the most sound of the assets.  Believe it or don't.  Study it or don't.  Look for arguments to support your suspicions that bitcoin is not technologically special, and those kinds of arguments are all over the place for you to buy into while you remain an ongoing and persistent nocoiner bitcoin skeptic.  Good luck in your travels and your other likely to be inferior investments.

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue.  Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.  

S/he/it is here to teach us that bitcoin likely has some technological inferiorities, so therefore, we should wait for a better technology or invest in some other more technologically superior coin(s).

I don’t think you are here to learn. I think you are here to argue.  Which is fine but let’s call it for what it is.  

You do realise that argumentation and thoughtful discussion is a valid way of learning, right?
A reasonably effective way at arriving at the truth, no?

You're also aware, obviously, that indoctrination is the practice of "listen and believe", right?

Oh gawd!!!!   

[VB1001]

WO thread needs major cleanup. Piles and piles of nonsense...

truer words...

Easy, ignored button.

[JayJuanGee]

 This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Whoaza. I'm gonna have to rethink my beliefs about BTC scarcity or the lack thereof, due to the lack of bitcoin's physicality beyond a bunch of electrons floating on wires and through space.  Surely those electrons, including the ones and zeros are not sufficiently physical.

Incoming stupid JayJuanGee post pretending he's wiser than Aristotle and not a simple fly by night, digital scamcoin grifter.

Surely, I could not be smarter than Aristotle, but I am more likely to be smarter than several no coiner bitcoin naysayers such as Roach who sold all of his bitcoins in the $700 price territory.  Sometimes I have my doubts, but frequently roach does make me feel as if I am smart, and I am just a normal guy who did not sell his coins in the $700s.

In other words, I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to out run dee roach, which does not seem to be a difficult task on most days.

[realr0ach]

This is why Aristotle says money is required to be a physical commodity.

I did not know that Aristotle was able to foresee bitcoin and  to account for the resolution of the byzintine general's problem....

Bitcoin does not solve Byzantine generals because the basis of Byzantine generals is really just a Sybil attack and Bitcoin is not, and has never been Sybil proof when it's possible for the same guy to own every mining pool on earth in secrecy.  A single guy can therefore be operating right out in the open in a 51%+ attack state in perpetuity.  This has likely been the real world case for a good duration of Bitcoin's existence with the Bitmain monopoly and ownership of more than one pool, and secretly stashing hash power in different pools.

To attempt to fix this problem, you would need to use the Andrew Miller idea of non-outsourceable puzzle box to prevent the use of pools at all.  In that scenario, there would be more incentive for large hash rate actors to keep their hash rate pooled in the same place instead of diffusing it and would be more easy to identify, but since they can still selectively hide their resources in multiple locations to operate wide out in the open as a 51%+ monopoly, essentially colluding with themselves - Sybil - Bitcoin would still not solve Byzantine generals.  

It's 100% impossible to create a decentralized digital currency for numerous reasons such as this, from transaction validators being designed to centralize, to being unable to even check how centralized they are.