Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Do you see? It never reached the curve! It had to be lowered and adjusted!

In the end, does it really matter if the subsequent chart needed to be adjusted based on change in circumstances (whether facts and/or logic)?

There's no one stop shopping when it comes to chartalism, and even charts should adjust because actual facts that evolve based on a variety of human behavior that involve previous unknowns (that only become known after the passage of time), rather than math is based on human behavior not some pie in the sky projections of "inevitability".

It's funny how the bears here will turn bullish and predict 500k after they got their coins  

Well I’m only calling for 150k$ in two years😀
Could see more downside but I love this buying opportunity!

That's the current problem! Too many are calling for at least 100k like it's guaranteed or something. Posting those hopium longterm curve charts which were never accurate in the history of predicting.. Too many people got filled their bags and whales don't like that because noobs dont have any money left to pump whale bags.

Huh?  What the fuck you talking about, SuperTA?  

Are we talking about short-term BTC price moves or longer term BTC price moves?  Seems like you are getting the two mixed up, because the long term is still yet to play out, but there still can be predictions and projections of the long term price moves that may or may not end up being correct, and so fucking what about some of the short-term BTC price moves, they do not necessarily have much if any effect on what is going to happen in the longer term, but we don't even know that until we look at the matter after the fact rather than assuming before hand that one model or another model/set of charts is more correct (or less correct).  

[1714770233]

1714770233

[JayJuanGee]

Are you guys enjoying black friday? Get some of that sweet sweet coin for cheap! And you don't even have to trample anyone to death accidently... Well maybe a japanese businessman or two who just got liquidated, but hey.

"Black friday" is next week.. the day after thanksgiving.... thank you very much.   

[proudhon]

Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Lol


The oracles have spoken

[JayJuanGee]

I would not keep it in Fiat. Stocks or real estate or what ever brings me 5% a year.

 This. With a good managed portfolio, I've been pulling in 10-12% over the last three years on my traditional investments. Very happy with the numbers I'm seeing.

 Does not make sense to keep money liquid, just sitting there, earning basic sub 0.5% interest rates in a traditional checking account; take a number you are comfortable with not touching for at least a year, and put it into a managed fund, if you can. The fee's are more than made up for with the profits you will likely realize.

 In my experience, anyway.

Well, if what you say is actually accurate, then you are pulling out way the fuck more than what is within the realms of conventional recommendations, which is to pull out within the area of 4%.  Of course, any of us can tweak recommendations because as people we have discretion to do whatever the fuck we like; however, your pulling out 2.5x to 3x of the conventional recommendations seem a bit much.. and I suppose that within you assertion, you might be suggesting that you are able to achieve returns that are on average 2.5x to 3.5x greater than normal peeps?

Could be. Could be.  But doesn't seem too likely, especially if you consider real long term projections about what actual returns are.  Of course, in recent years, we have BTC that can be added into the mix regarding our actual returns, so in that regard, our actual returns could end up getting way the fuck skewed to the upside if BTC continues to generally (and even quite exponentially) outperform traditional asset classes.

[Arriemoller]

Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.

Proudhon! My favorite alpacka. The best counter indicator on this thread, it's up from here on. Thank you and get yourself a hat.

[Arriemoller]

About the Tesla pickup, I LOVE IT!!
It's exactly what I've been dreaming of ever since watching Blade Runner and Alien in the 80s.
I never liked the sedan models with their ugly rounded 90s look, but this one, just what I have been dreaming of since the 80s.
That's my next car after the new blow of top in 2021. Thank you Elon.

[Searing]

I would not keep it in Fiat. Stocks or real estate or what ever brings me 5% a year.

 This. With a good managed portfolio, I've been pulling in 10-12% over the last three years on my traditional investments. Very happy with the numbers I'm seeing.

 Does not make sense to keep money liquid, just sitting there, earning basic sub 0.5% interest rates in a traditional checking account; take a number you are comfortable with not touching for at least a year, and put it into a managed fund, if you can. The fee's are more than made up for with the profits you will likely realize.

 In my experience, anyway.

Well, if what you say is actually accurate, then you are pulling out way the fuck more than what is within the realms of conventional recommendations, which is to pull out within the area of 4%.  Of course, any of us can tweak recommendations because as people we have discretion to do whatever the fuck we like; however, your pulling out 2.5x to 3x of the conventional recommendations seem a bit much.. and I suppose that within you assertion, you might be suggesting that you are able to achieve returns that are on average 2.5x to 3.5x greater than normal peeps?

Could be. Could be.  But doesn't seem too likely, especially if you consider real long term projections about what actual returns are.  Of course, in recent years, we have BTC that can be added into the mix regarding our actual returns, so in that regard, our actual returns could end up getting way the fuck skewed to the upside if BTC continues to generally (and even quite exponentially) outperform traditional asset classes.

Mine is a managed 4-5% for the last year on traditional investments. I did put windows and siding on the house this year as well as a newer truck ...this because i expect a pretty

good 20-40% recession coming along soon. I took the house/truck money out of the traditional investments to take some 'cream' off the top for my view of a pretty harsh recession.

Guess I forgot about BTC's version of such now that we are down to $7,250 USD now I see.

What the heck bought about 0.266 BTC in the last couple of days...so wtf. Been in this too long to lame out now. The 2013 BTC Kool-Aid seems to be keeping me buying on the lows

(dust or not) it seems.

If I'm wrong with the current BTC hoard on buying in now and monthly, big whoop, I'll have much bigger problems with the BTC I hodl if that is the case for any of that to matter...

If I'm right, however, I will look like (and claim) I had it all planned. (even though I just placed a bet...BTC always drama)

oh well, chump or champ we will see in the next couple of years I guess...

Plan on buying more BTC whatever the price on Dec 1st, 2019....would be nice if I could keep up monthly buying 'some' as a habit...no matter the amount.

Anyway IF my recession idea of 20-40% correction on the traditional stock market, etc. Bitcoin will come back. If not....well it was fun!

later

Brad

[STT]

P.S. i would like this to happen but let's be real

Maybe you wouldn't like this to happen because price is not a description of quality or value.   We can get $trillion on that chart for all it matters, at that point it'd be talking about dollar and what happened there.   I see gold bugs talking similarly, the gold never changes but the quality of what it measures against does which I generally agree with.

The easiest counter to those long term curve charts is the rate of change is not consistent.  Even from looking at the halvening effect it is not the same every time and BTC has to take the training wheels off and rely on something less scheduled then block rewards.

Note to self: Be careful what you wish for....
https://i.imgur.com/NhN6svt.jpg

That cartoon is great, market effect is like the monkeys paw.   Gold especially is just a measure of excess capital, tradable capacity which is what makes it useful between nations.   If capitalism is anything useful, its about the average gain to society but we dont exactly have capitalism now.   I do expect BTC to either be a gain to society or the price will be irrelevant as it wont be replacing dollar just sitting alongside and gaining a number only from sharing its inflationary effects somehow.  The monkey paw wish for higher price is never quite what we expect, measuring in dollars is hard to say because its not going to be the same dollar in a few years and we're all inside the bubble till we get that change I guess.


The only simple conclusion I have for price movement today is that we fell below the yearly average price but then regained that measure and may close the week above it possibly.   Similar price around in 2018 had the weekly bars showing possible support for todays low price.

Where I marked the purple line is todays low on late 2018 weekly bars


And this is April 2018 action in relation to a yearly average

[Arriemoller]

And also, the Iraqi defense minister is a Swedish citizen and on welfare, you heard it here first.
https://nyheteridag.se/iraqi-defense-minister-is-receiving-welfare-in-sweden-investigated-by-police/

He is also gay.
https://nyheteridag.se/i-want-to-fk-you-sex-sex-sex-iraqi-defense-minister-sexually-harassing-young-male/

No it's not a joke.

[realr0ach]

[Wekkel]

Suggesting caution for too much optimism, I dig. But posting chart after chart from the past that proved wrong ... 

Well, I have enough examples of those on my own 

[xhomerx10]

And also, the Iraqi defense minister is a Swedish citizen and on welfare, you heard it here first.
https://nyheteridag.se/iraqi-defense-minister-is-receiving-welfare-in-sweden-investigated-by-police/

He is also gay.
https://nyheteridag.se/i-want-to-fk-you-sex-sex-sex-iraqi-defense-minister-sexually-harassing-young-male/

No it's not a joke.

 It's an odd story and very sad for the women in his life.  Nobody should have to live in fear of the next beating.
 

[Biodom]

About the Tesla pickup, I LOVE IT!!
It's exactly what I've been dreaming of ever since watching Blade Runner and Alien in the 80s.
I never liked the sedan models with their ugly rounded 90s look, but this one, just what I have been dreaming of since the 80s.
That's my next car after the new blow of top in 2021. Thank you Elon.

You can't argue taste, but it looks like an APC.
I wonder if APCs could be had, used.
I checked out model 3: it is certainly not worth the asking price ($42K) because the cabin is so small.
Model S is nice, but about twice the price of a midsize beemer.

[El duderino_]

It's only 2:05PM ET and we’ve already traded 2,367 contracts today, beating our previous record of 1,756

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1197958340648800257?s=20

[LUCKMCFLY]

This is within the odds, and I think they are very high: The level of Bitcoin support could trigger an explosive movement of bulls, if defended.

In the near-term, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will pause its descent at this level, as the $6,900 to $7,200 range marks the crypto’s “golden pocket,” which may allow it to find some much needed buying pressure that catalyzes a short-term rally.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/11/22/bitcoin-support-level-may-spark-explosive-bull-movement-if-its-defended/

[Majormax]

Told you guys were in the great long-term downtrend. There is no substantial up from here. Yeah, sure, it'll wobble around, but we are definitely witnessing the "slow" death of bitcoin. There is not going to be another all time high. No more sustained above $10k prices anymore. That's in the past. I know it sucks for a lot of you to hear this, but it's just done. Play the market if you want, play a long term low leverage short if you really want to make money, but bitcoin has run it's course. 2 years from now bitcoin will not be above $10k, that's guaranteed.

Hardly guaranteed. There is a lot of uncertainty on a 2 year view, and it is one scenario that BTC may be experiencing slow death, but surely it is not possible to guarantee any particular outcome ?

What is the basis for your view that this is a long term downtrend ?

...and shorts are pretty hazardous, so I can see why you said 'low leverage'.  

[Majormax]

This is within the odds, and I think they are very high: The level of Bitcoin support could trigger an explosive movement of bulls, if defended.

Maybe, but perhaps not soon. Price is now close to better support. It may take a lot of time around these levels, but at least there is the possibility to pause and stop the medium term downtrend.

[Arriemoller]

About the Tesla pickup, I LOVE IT!!
It's exactly what I've been dreaming of ever since watching Blade Runner and Alien in the 80s.
I never liked the sedan models with their ugly rounded 90s look, but this one, just what I have been dreaming of since the 80s.
That's my next car after the new blow of top in 2021. Thank you Elon.

You can't argue taste, but it looks like an APC.
I wonder if APCs could be had, used.
I checked out model 3: it is certainly not worth the asking price ($42K) because the cabin is so small.
Model S is nice, but about twice the price of a midsize beemer.

I like APCs, yes they can be bought. Every now and then you see them for sale here in Sweden, mostly old KPs.

https://kvibergs.se/event/lotdetails/2258001/terrangbil-m42-skp-samlarobjekt-endast-379-mil-gar-bra

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KP-bil

[BayAreaCoins]

$5000 BTC for black friday.