Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[infofront]

Not my chart, but fuck it. It's a bull flag:

[JayJuanGee]

I would not keep it in Fiat. Stocks or real estate or what ever brings me 5% a year.

 This. With a good managed portfolio, I've been pulling in 10-12% over the last three years on my traditional investments. Very happy with the numbers I'm seeing.

 Does not make sense to keep money liquid, just sitting there, earning basic sub 0.5% interest rates in a traditional checking account; take a number you are comfortable with not touching for at least a year, and put it into a managed fund, if you can. The fee's are more than made up for with the profits you will likely realize.

 In my experience, anyway.

Well, if what you say is actually accurate, then you are pulling out way the fuck more than what is within the realms of conventional recommendations, which is to pull out within the area of 4%.  Of course, any of us can tweak recommendations because as people we have discretion to do whatever the fuck we like; however, your pulling out 2.5x to 3x of the conventional recommendations seem a bit much.. and I suppose that within you assertion, you might be suggesting that you are able to achieve returns that are on average 2.5x to 3.5x greater than normal peeps?

Could be. Could be.  But doesn't seem too likely, especially if you consider real long term projections about what actual returns are.  Of course, in recent years, we have BTC that can be added into the mix regarding our actual returns, so in that regard, our actual returns could end up getting way the fuck skewed to the upside if BTC continues to generally (and even quite exponentially) outperform traditional asset classes.

Mine is a managed 4-5% for the last year on traditional investments. I did put windows and siding on the house this year as well as a newer truck ...this because i expect a pretty

good 20-40% recession coming along soon. I took the house/truck money out of the traditional investments to take some 'cream' off the top for my view of a pretty harsh recession.

Guess I forgot about BTC's version of such now that we are down to $7,250 USD now I see.

What the heck bought about 0.266 BTC in the last couple of days...so wtf. Been in this too long to lame out now. The 2013 BTC Kool-Aid seems to be keeping me buying on the lows

(dust or not) it seems.

If I'm wrong with the current BTC hoard on buying in now and monthly, big whoop, I'll have much bigger problems with the BTC I hodl if that is the case for any of that to matter...

If I'm right, however, I will look like (and claim) I had it all planned. (even though I just placed a bet...BTC always drama)

oh well, chump or champ we will see in the next couple of years I guess...

Plan on buying more BTC whatever the price on Dec 1st, 2019....would be nice if I could keep up monthly buying 'some' as a habit...no matter the amount.

Anyway IF my recession idea of 20-40% correction on the traditional stock market, etc. Bitcoin will come back. If not....well it was fun!

later

Brad

I remain a bit unclear about whether what you are saying makes sense exactly.  If you have reached a stage of your investment that you are starting to withdraw, then you would likely NOT continue to invest too.  I mean, you could withdraw up to 1% per quarter or 4% per year, and still be within a kind of conventionally accepted withdraw rate that allows you to largely average out in keeping the value of the principle.

If you are still accumulating BTC or buying a position into BTC, I suppose you could do that too, but I think that you have to be a bit more strategic than a pure DCA kind of approach - which works all fine and dandy during initial accumulation, but does not seem to be very applicable to attempt to randomly mix such an approach with a withdrawal strategy.

On the other hand, if you are taking from one kind of investment and moving to BTC, then you are reallocating rather than withdrawing, so anyhow my point is that your description of your strategy, Searing, comes off as a bit confusing and potentially a bit contradictory in the event that you really were to consider yourself to be in a kind of withdrawal phase on your BTC.

Now, on the other hand (I know that I am running out of hands, but whatever), if you believe that you had withdrawn more BTC than you had wanted to withdraw, and you were in the process of replenishing some of your withdrawal of funds, then I suppose that could be a reasonable thing to attempt, too, especially if you remain a bit unclear about what stage you are in, or if you are kind of in a transition stage rather than a liquidation stage (which seems to be the most plausible reading regarding where you perceive yourself to be at, currently). 

[VB1001]

Bitcoin's parabolic uptrend which started in January 2015 is still intact. Now nearly touching support again, for the first time since March 2019.

logarithmic scale

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1197937180519346176

Go Bitcoin

[ðºÞæ]

Guys, I've been reading this crazy stuff posted by someone called "Shelby Moore" (whose messages were recently re-posted in the WO thread by user THX 1138), about how all coins held in SegWit addresses will be donated to miners, as they are free-to-spend coins in the legacy (pre-SegWit) blockchain, and only the coins held in legacy addresses will stay intact and belonging to their owners (private key holders). Supposedly, this attack will occur near the 2020 Halving event and will wreak havoc, resulting in the legacy chain being resurrected from the dead and becoming the dominant one, and the SegWit chain disintegrating into oblivion and causing a massive BTC price drop to near-zero.

What do you make of this?

Some more Qs:

1. Is it possible to move any of our coins held in SegWit addresses to legacy addresses (so that they would belong to the legacy chain if the above attack does happen)? Does the fact that, at some point in their history, those coins were held in SegWit addresses, taint them in any way? Would they still be considered as fully belonging to the legacy chain once moved to legacy addresses?

2. Would you do it? Do you think it's worth it?

3. Do these questions even make any sense?

4. Am I wasting my time with all this?

Thanks for any insights.

1. With the SW exploit segwit coins will be unmovable at first, current transactions, then the coins resting in sw addresses and at last any coin ever moved through a sw address is frozen.  Exchanges with coin in SW addresses may become insolvent.

2. Stick to Bitcoin fundamentals, decentralize not follow the herd, flock or mob. Everyone needs to do his own homework.

3. Yes

4. No

Core devs know the problems with segwit
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6qftjc/holy_shit_greg_maxwell_and_peter_todd_both_just/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=bitcoincashSV&utm_content=t3_dgbb1t


Segregated witnesses separates transaction information about what coins were transferred from the information proving those transfers were legitimate.
The precondition to creating a new block is the data of the last  block, the witness.

If you belief to be the 10th owner of a stolen car and the 5th owner has stolen it, when it is established that this is the case you will lose the car and the last lawful owner (4th) will get it back.
This is the very basic rudimentary form of it.

[Cryptotourist]

1. With the SW exploit segwit coins will be unmovable at first, current transactions, then the coins resting in sw addresses and at last any coin ever moved through a sw address is frozen.  Exchanges with coin in SW addresses may become insolvent.

[VB1001]

xhomerx10 the boss's hat has won some merits, now we have to wait someday for him to wear the hat.

I have to share them with you, otherwise it wouldn't be fair.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5193860.msg53144644#msg53144644

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1197909299462172673

There is still time, bitcoin is much bitcoin.

[JSRAW]

Arrogance is the camouflage of insecurity - Tim Fargo

[mindrust]

This man is pretty godly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is (was) the bottom probably. Maybe it will try one more time to break below 6k... then to the fckn moon.

Yes, that's what i'm talking about. The thread is full of those hopium charts based on the longterm curve that was never a good indicator for the future's price. Based on the previous wrong longterm curves it would be good to lower the curve and expectation. This thread had too many of those hopiums in recent  months that are now bringing a dissapointment to some readers.

P.S. i would like this to happen but let's be real

You have a point actually but don't you think 60-70k as the next ATH is already a good prediction?  It is amazing how he predicted the ups and downs on a monthly chart so far, I don't really expect bitcoin to go above 70-80k tbh in the next bull run. Maybe and a big maybe it will touch 100k for a second but almost nobody will be able to make any trades from that price point.

I don't think this is a hopium moonchart. When I shared filbfilb's chart in this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932892.0) , people didn't believe it at all. Just look at the first few pages. Nobody seems to be believed it but it happened anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

This man is pretty godly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is (was) the bottom probably. Maybe it will try one more time to break below 6k... then to the fckn moon.

Yes, that's what i'm talking about. The thread is full of those hopium charts based on the longterm curve that was never a good indicator for the future's price. Based on the previous wrong longterm curves it would be good to lower the curve and expectation. This thread had too many of those hopiums in recent  months that are now bringing a dissapointment to some readers.

P.S. i would like this to happen but let's be real

You have a point actually but don't you think 60-70k as the next ATH is already a good prediction?  It is amazing how he predicted the ups and downs on a monthly chart so far, I don't really expect bitcoin to go above 70-80k tbh in the next bull run. Maybe and a big maybe it will touch 100k for a second but almost nobody will be able to make any trades from that price point.

I don't think this is a hopium moonchart. When I shared filbfilb's chart in this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932892.0) , people didn't believe it at all. Just look at the first few pages. Nobody seems to be believed it but it happened anyway.

One of the reasons that SuperTA is wrong is because historical BTC predictions have been all over the place.  Sometimes they are too high sometimes too low and sometlmes they luckily get it right.

Personally, I believe that it is not a bad thing to have a somewhat conservative prediction, but you gotta be prepared in case BTC prices way the fuck overshoot, and that is really what seemed to have happened in 2017... we had so many fucking people selling way too early and then a lot of people were predicting $3k to $5k as the top, and sure there were a few more bullish people out there, but the vast majority were under predicting rather than overpredicting and so when BTC price went shooting up, there were a decent number of people who were underprepared because BTC's price had overshot their most bullish of expectations by 3x to 5x.

Similar BTC price performances can happen again, which could even mean going to $500k... but really it is better to be somewhat prepared in case the top is much lower and even if the BTC price peters out before even reaching $50k.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

A very early good morning WO!
Observing @ $7,197
Panic over?

[nutildah]

moronic bullshit

BSV will be 51% attacked 3 times before bitcoin ever is.

Stop quoting r/btc and go back to meta net.

If anybody wants to make a wager here that BTC won't be 51% attacked (or SegWit exploited) by the date of your choosing, let me know. It will be a gentleman's wager and I will assuredly hold my end of the bargain or else never post on the forum again.

[JayJuanGee]

moronic bullshit

BSV will be 51% attacked 3 times before bitcoin ever is.

Stop quoting r/btc and go back to meta net.

If anybody wants to make a wager here that BTC won't be 51% attacked (or SegWit exploited) by the date of your choosing, let me know. It will be a gentleman's wager and I will assuredly hold my end of the bargain or else never post on the forum again.

OMG.. .self-banishment!!!!!!

Or exile???


Don't make the bet.    

[Globb0]

[El duderino_]

When bitcoin is bullish and rising i can be one of the most optimistic nice guys. But when the bitcoin changes the mood i can transform completly into one of the   not so pleasant ones. My girlfriend knows it, my friends, parents, .......they all know how bitcoin is doing when they see me. They don't need any coinmarketcap site or tradingview. Nope. They just look at me and they can read the btc trend from my expression.

That’s actually very bad dude, don’t get driven by emotion......

[pressnegl]

The important thing is not to drive a car like this into the mountains  

[Majormax]

When bitcoin is bullish and rising i can be one of the most optimistic nice guys. But when the bitcoin changes the mood i can transform completly into one of the   not so pleasant ones. My girlfriend knows it, my friends, parents, .......they all know how bitcoin is doing when they see me. They don't need any coinmarketcap site or tradingview. Nope. They just look at me and they can read the btc trend from my expression.

That’s actually very bad dude, don’t get driven by emotion......

If you look at the bull/bear markets you get to be in a bad mood for 3-4 years at a time.  However, the converse is also true.

[El duderino_]

It’s a bit like LS said the other day.... Mic your not doing it right cause you go out for dinner and do some expensive sh*t.... you should invest those in BTC and JJG actually agreed.....

I see it a bit different, I think one should have some FIAT in order to make more FIAT to gain more BTC, and going out for dinner and having some breaks from RL events just gives the mind some time to chill and to rinse repeat the first words of this sentence and so it’s essential to have some good times.....

When you don’t work with your income and the only income is monthly salary then it’s different in terms of investing.... but still I would recommend to not 100% convinced people to invest step by step cause some just can’t handle the market volatility (and no-one wants to end in a depression) 

[JSRAW]

Cardano Founder :Charles Hoskinson

“Bitcoin's price is going down? Remember everyone, after the FUD, news trading and manipulation clears out, we still have a global movement that's going to change the world. We will see 10k btc again and welcome 100k. Crypto is unstoppable. Crypto is the future.”

[becoin]

When bitcoin is bullish and rising i can be one of the most optimistic nice guys. But when the bitcoin changes the mood i can transform completly into one of the   not so pleasant ones. My girlfriend knows it, my friends, parents, .......they all know how bitcoin is doing when they see me. They don't need any coinmarketcap site or tradingview. Nope. They just look at me and they can read the btc trend from my expression.

That’s actually very bad dude, don’t get driven by emotion......

If you look at the bull/bear markets you get to be in a bad mood for 3-4 years at a time.  However, the converse is also true.

I entered in 2017, it was a nice beginning 

You should have entered in 2009. You have wasted 8 years of your life in self-hypnosis staring at charts instead.