Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

oh well. if you can't beat em, join em

[VB1001]

I realize some people get worried.
But.
You need to realize that the sats you stacked above $10k were also super cheap. The current situation is like getting discount on the discounted discount.
It really is.
You're lucky to be able to stack here.
Make the best of it.

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/1198893520184119297

[JSRAW]

sorry v8 English team got their asses kicked by kiwis today in the Test, i would say humiliating .....

[JayJuanGee]

^  
F*** Y** JJG what about me, what am I doing ?    

Will give a hindsight me is HODLing as always, HODL through every singel bump that our precious narrative writes us  

You are correct that maybe I should have mentioned something about you (it seems to be water under the bridge now, especially since I saw I had been quoted, and I am not even sure if I can justify in my head to go back and say something about you specifically), and I am tentatively thinking that I would have both asserted that you are not really showing any signs of capitulation and that would have likely been the punchline in such assertion,.,,,,

Of course, I would have attempted to frame the matter a bit differently than what you might have wanted from my, and that is why the case of including you would not have necessarily been obvious for me - so ease of my own life, I chose not to say anything.  

There are some cases that are a bit less clear in my own mind regarding stash management and attempts at stash management, and surely if you have gone through some BTC stash management struggles that resonated with me, then your case becomes a bit more clear to me and acceptable in my own thinking, and I thought that your recent action-packed rendition had not quite reached a level of resonance for me, in my own thinking... or even your choice of a belgium drink rather than something more exotic.  So I had considered the possibility of putting you in my little synopsis of trying to argue the case of "what the fuck capitulation?", but maybe there had not been enough history of any personal sufferings or strugglings in your personal examples that had been really resonating with me.

Maybe it is a kind of do as I say and not as I do kind of situation?  

I mean, I try NOT to show too many of my own personal strugglings too much, also, and surely some of that could come to bite me in the ass when guys (and gal) are considering whether to empathize with me so I am not sure whether some members, here, will actually realize if I am tweaking my BTC strategies here or there, or trying to rethink my BTC buys a little bit - for example I bought a bit extra BTC at in the mid $10,000 and down through $9k in August or so because I was thinking that we might have been going up from there, but that did not happen, and caused some irritation from me or sometimes I make a mistake in buying BTC when I had meant to sell or selling  BTC when I had meant to buy (and then I have to wait for the BTC price or to tweak my strategy a bit to make up for such mistake(s)), and surely some of those seemingly first world problems might not resonate with guys and gal, as genuinely significant enough to really matter... So perhaps in that sense we could possibly be able to relate to each other in terms of the level of my personal tragedies might not be tragic enough for others to relate to them (even if they happen to read the long ass post that gets me to attempt to show what happened), perhaps? Perhaps?

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7. 

Anyhow, I am a bit unclear from where you are getting our capitulation because we are all over the place.. even while maybe a bit resolved that we had reached close to 65% down from our $13,880.  What else can be done?

Looking back at the last 5 pages, that's true, a very split opinion.  The poll results show that as well.

After stepping away from my keyboard and then stepping back to this topic, let me retrospectively add to clarify that I personally don't believe that a capitulation (even if it could be established by Hairy or anyone else) is actually a condition precedent in order for BTC prices to reverse and/or to return to UPpity.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $7280

Bravo to the orchestrated dumping by whoever the whales were responsible for some top manipulation.

Back where we were & I imagine their bags are even fuller. Easy work if you have a spare few hundred mill in bitcoin down the back of your sofa.

Edit - $7350

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@100trillionUSD
Call me crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1198994998655672321?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Personally, I suspect that it is not easy to see s-curve adoption while in the midst of it, but jeez, just mentioning the $300 to $500 price range was about where we were bouncing around during early 2016 - right before that particular halvening.

Couldn't between a 13x ($500) and 22x ($300) price increase from our current $6,600 in 4 years serve as a kind of ballpark indication that we might possibly remain within a kind of s-curve adoption?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Even a 10 x appreciation from here would put us at an amazing figure JJG.

Yeah, but can we really count on the previous fractal pattern to play out?  I mean there could be all kinds of dickering around in order to try to camouflage the existence of s-curve adoption and what if it takes four years to get to the 10x, instead of bouncing up 30x to 50x and then coming back down to 5x-ish in 4 years which would not really rule out s-curve adoption (in my thinking)? 

Any of those would still seem to be signs of s-curve adoption because what kind of asset keeps averaging such high return rates unless it is in a kind of s-curve adoption?  Even if we cannot see with much precision that we are in the midst of s-curve adoption?  Yeah, we would like more explosiveness to really show it, but we have already had decent explosiveness, and there could be some logic that the s-curve might kind of appear to be flattening out in terms of percentages, but we still are achieving more and more adoptions and network effects and some of the indicators (beyond price) might even be more steep than the BTC price curve.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Personally, I suspect that it is not easy to see s-curve adoption while in the midst of it, but jeez, just mentioning the $300 to $500 price range was about where we were bouncing around during early 2016 - right before that particular halvening.

Couldn't between a 13x ($500) and 22x ($300) price increase from our current $6,600 in 4 years serve as a kind of ballpark indication that we might possibly remain within a kind of s-curve adoption?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Even a 10 x appreciation from here would put us at an amazing figure JJG.

Yeah, but can we really count on the previous fractal pattern to play out?  I mean there could be all kinds of dickering around in order to try to camouflage the existence of s-curve adoption and what if it takes four years to get to the 10x, instead of bouncing up 30x to 50x and then coming back down to 5x-ish in 4 years which would not really rule out s-curve adoption (in my thinking)? 

Any of those would still seem to be signs of s-curve adoption because what kind of asset keeps averaging such high return rates unless it is in a kind of s-curve adoption?  Even if we cannot see with much precision that we are in the midst of s-curve adoption?  Yeah, we would like more explosiveness to really show it, but we have already had decent explosiveness, and there could be some logic that the s-curve might kind of appear to be flattening out in terms of percentages, but we still are achieving more and more adoptions and network effects and some of the indicators (beyond price) might even be more steep than the BTC price curve.

I’m prepared for all scenarios JJG, I have a nice stash but still buying every week. I can afford to wait another 4-5 years for the moon, even longer really. I’d like to see some real explosiveness in 2021 though

[VB1001]

Another Class Lawsuit Claims Bitfinex, Tether Manipulated Bitcoin Market

Crypto exchange Bitfinex and its sister firm, stablecoin issuer Tether, have again been accused of working to manipulate the bitcoin markets.

https://www.coindesk.com/another-class-lawsuit-claims-bitfinex-tether-manipulated-bitcoin-market

We are all here again, FUD, trolls, China ban, tether, weak hands...

[JSRAW]

Personally, I suspect that it is not easy to see s-curve adoption while in the midst of it, but jeez, just mentioning the $300 to $500 price range was about where we were bouncing around during early 2016 - right before that particular halvening.

Couldn't between a 13x ($500) and 22x ($300) price increase from our current $6,600 in 4 years serve as a kind of ballpark indication that we might possibly remain within a kind of s-curve adoption?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Even a 10 x appreciation from here would put us at an amazing figure JJG.

Yeah, but can we really count on the previous fractal pattern to play out?  I mean there could be all kinds of dickering around in order to try to camouflage the existence of s-curve adoption and what if it takes four years to get to the 10x, instead of bouncing up 30x to 50x and then coming back down to 5x-ish in 4 years which would not really rule out s-curve adoption (in my thinking)? 

Any of those would still seem to be signs of s-curve adoption because what kind of asset keeps averaging such high return rates unless it is in a kind of s-curve adoption?  Even if we cannot see with much precision that we are in the midst of s-curve adoption?  Yeah, we would like more explosiveness to really show it, but we have already had decent explosiveness, and there could be some logic that the s-curve might kind of appear to be flattening out in terms of percentages, but we still are achieving more and more adoptions and network effects and some of the indicators (beyond price) might even be more steep than the BTC price curve.

I’m prepared for all scenarios JJG, I have a nice stash but still buying every week. I can afford to wait another 4-5 years for the moon, even longer really. I’d like to see some real explosiveness in 2021 though

make up your mind lfc. 4-5 years or next 1-2 years

[JayJuanGee]

Btc price was pretty much expected to fall when it dropped bellow 8900-ish.

Do you mean after October 25 or before October 25?  Likely October 25 affected expectations, even if a lot of folks considered that to be a bit of a pump, it still took 26 days to return to its $7,300-ish starting point.

After the pump, after Oct 25.  Now we have many MA lines on the daily and weekly above us and until we don't get above them it won't be a bull.

Still seems too damned short term to really get very excited about it or to really draw much if any significance from it.

Surely at one point the extra-ordinary October 25th price rise may have appeared to be a possible direction change and to even suggest that we had been possibly getting out of our then current BTC price bottom (which was around $7,293-ish), but even the price could not really sustain itself for more than a few days, which might be kind of what you are suggesting, so I don't know how significant the whole thing ends up being, except for a temporary reprieve from our pre October 25 down inclination (as they say a kind of fake out that you don't really know what it is until quite a bit after the fact, which maybe you and I are kind of agreeing here.. or not saying anything materially different from one another).

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JSRAW
I’d really like (and tbh I expect) the price to moon in 2021 or 2022. I CAN wait though, I don’t have any life plans that mean I must sell ASAP.

Hoping for $50,000 - $100,00 per BTC 12-18 months after the halving. I think it’s reasonable to expect that.

[JayJuanGee]

Every time we dip a bit stronger than usual, most of WO is scared shitless with their "reasonable" worst-case bullshit estimates. So disappointing, especially given the size and history of the thread.

I see no panic around. Do you?

Right, and stuff like "no movement till 2024 halving" is a rational opinion or assessment after such a dip? It's fear and panic disguised as staying calm. Maybe I made the mistake of assuming that the average person here is smarter than a monkey?

I doubt that Alexander_Z is exactly reflective of the average WO member, if there is such a thing.  Opinions on the WO have always been all over the place, so it is strange that sometimes posters get all sentimental attempting to suggest that this thread has some kind of coherence in bitcoin bullishness, and every cycle seems that we have to fight certain characters of trolls that are not even the same ones over time... the troll from within, sometimes exists, too.

[Phil_S]

Someone woke up and started to abuse the buy button.

Yo bro, no competition. We are going to lose next month anyway

Who know, who knows... anything might happen in a month. 

[LUCKMCFLY]

Bulls can boost the resistance zone from $ 7,337.78 to $ 7,702.87, the chances of a deeper fall will decrease.


Source: https://www.caneislandcrypto.com/blog

[JayJuanGee]

Someone woke up and started to abuse the buy button.

Yo bro, no competition. We are going to lose next month anyway

Who know, who knows... anything might happen in a month. 

"Anything" within reason, no?  Seems that the odds for up are becoming a bit greater than the odds for down, but then again, I sometimes am a bit torn too when I see how much negative sentiment is out there in mainstream information circles.  That is not exactly a new thing in bitcoinlandia, but of course, there are going to be attempts at trying to keep the momentum going down while it is going down, and surely there still could be some needs to purge some of the shit coins.  To me it seems that any little bounce in bitcoin also causes a bounce in shitcoins, which is not really a healthy sign, because many of us realize that shitcoins are called shitcoins for a reason... and at the same time, we cannot really rule out that a decent number of them might come again on the next upwards bitcoin ride.

Never say never in bitcoinland, but going below $4,500 might be a place where I might convert into thoughts that we entered a bear market.

Of course, my personal strategies are not really going to change very much, but my existent buy orders only go down to about mid-$3,000s so I would surely need to start reorganizing a bit, if it appears that BTC prices might even get into the mid-$5ks.  No one should be waiting until the last minute to plan for things, even if the odds of them happening seem to be quite far off, but if we get close to mid$5ks I am going to have to take some measures to engage in some restructuring of what is left of whatever cash I have left for trading, including considering the extent to which I can garner any new monies to bring in... or would I merely go into a HODL strategy, and surely those are all considerations - because none of us really would want to NOT be able to take advantage of possible buying opportunities even if we may have a feeling that we have already exhausted most of our dry powder already even before the price even gets close to the mid-$5ks.  That kind of was the case for me in late 2018, when we kept visiting lower $6ks over and over and over, it seems that I had kind of banked on $6k being pretty damned close to the then local bottom.. which subsequently, we found out was NOT the case.. then some scrambling has to take place to attempt to take advantage of a situation that many of us reasonably had concluded was NOT likely at all to happen.. but then all of a sudden, we were there. Fuck.

[VB1001]

@100trillionUSD
Call me crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (#bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1198994998655672321?s=21

I also believe it.

[xhomerx10]

TO THE MOON!

because reasons

[makrospex]

Every time we dip a bit stronger than usual, most of WO is scared shitless with their "reasonable" worst-case bullshit estimates. So disappointing, especially given the size and history of the thread.

I see no panic around. Do you?

Right, and stuff like "no movement till 2024 halving" is a rational opinion or assessment after such a dip? It's fear and panic disguised as staying calm. Maybe I made the mistake of assuming that the average person here is smarter than a monkey?

I doubt that Alexander_Z is exactly reflective of the average WO member, if there is such a thing.  Opinions on the WO have always been all over the place, so it is strange that sometimes posters get all sentimental attempting to suggest that this thread has some kind of coherence in bitcoin bullishness, and every cycle seems that we have to fight certain characters of trolls that are not even the same ones over time... the troll from within, sometimes exists, too.

Long version:

counterweight: I hodl fearlessly. 
And i'm not the only one, by far. I'd say mostly anyone wearing a xHxX hat is not scared shitless, at least all the legendary WO members.
Disappointment comes from expectations, Lauda. However, anyone can judge, but that doesn't mean anyone's judgement is correct.
Text based communication on the interweb is prone to emotional misinterpretation, so everybody please keep their feelings under control.

TLDR version:
Get real 

[DeathAngel]

$72xx, I wonder where we go next, to $6500 or $8000? I suppose wherever the whales want us to go.