Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rudrigorc2]

I don't know Bitcoinrain's owner personally - I happen to know the current owner of Mercado Bitcoin, and they are two separate persons. The Bitcoinrain owner SOLD Mercado Bitcoin to a third party, who is completely unrelated to the ponzi/fund. And BTW: despite of the questionable business model of the aforementioned fund, AFAIK the theft of aprox. 10k bitcoins owned by Bitcoinrain indeed happened and it was not an "inside job" as you implied.

You are misinformed.

Bitcoinrain coins were mixed with mercadobitcoin coins, this is a fact easily verified in the blockchain. The owner of both was the same person and publicly stated  that rain's coins were stolen from INSIDE the exchange mercadobitcoin, he put everything there in ONE account as a safety measure before going on a trip, then never cared to prove it was really hacked. He also lied to the press, more than once.

Here is the clown: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=10275

Tell me how come the new owner does not know this?

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[Sitarow]

Lets leave MTgox behind us and move towards the $5000,- per BTC price Max K has been telling us about.

Slow and steady wins the race.

[kkaspar]

You are correct, kkaspar.  We are all just guessing--including yourself.

If you think bitcoin will be successful, then at some point in the future the price will be vastly higher than today.  You've done well so far by waiting, but why not deploy 25%-50% of your allocated funds now?  If yesterday was the bottom, you can enjoy the ride up from here.  But if we hit your $200-$300 target, then you can purchase more.

People don't have to buy and sell all at once.

Before the situation with gox, I was more certain that bitcoin has about 1-2 years still left in it. Right now I am not sure, because gox can hurt the integrity of the entire market sysem in a way that there won't be anymore rising at all.
I think that the market is too fragile to even invest 25%-50%. It makes more sense to me to wait until there is some certainty and then act. I don't like to invest on pure hype alone.

[Davyd05]

he helped you get the facts straight.

You too know for a fact that that providential just-in-time theft was real?

I am not saying it's fact, he's sharing...used the acronym AFAIK, meaning he isn't saying it's going on the blockchain as fact.

Rampion gave more first hand knowledge then either of us have here so I believe, and for a fact in my particular case...so you can speculate on your own assumptions if you like.

So unless you got a post to point towards where some blockchain forensics show something different perhaps, how is this theft any different then inputs.io?

Or Bernie Madoff, I am confused as to what relevance a sociopaths possibly ripping off others that trusted them with money has to do with bitcoin.

[JorgeStolfi]

And BTW: despite of the questionable business model of the aforementioned fund, AFAIK the theft of aprox. 10k bitcoins owned by Bitcoinrain indeed happened

Would you mind telling us how you know that?

for a guy who is supposed to have a background in cryptography

? Where did you get that?

I know the basics of modern cryptography, like any computer scientist should, but would not call that "background".

The good news is you didn't necessarily miss the train, just wake up, stop trolling and open your eyes.

Er, are you advising me to invest in bitcoin now? 

Where do you think that train is going to? What do you expect the price to be 3 years from now?

[Todorius]

Lets leave MTgox behind us and move towards the $5000,- per BTC price Max K has been telling us about.

Max Keiser has as much market prediction capabilities as my grandmother.
Yet, I think we might see 5000$ this year during the next major rally (with a bit of luck).

[tarmi]

wow, still discussing about failgox?



I guess we will go sideways now with little or no volume, but I am afraid that we will retest the lows in the following days.

[Peter R]

You are correct, kkaspar.  We are all just guessing--including yourself.

If you think bitcoin will be successful, then at some point in the future the price will be vastly higher than today.  You've done well so far by waiting, but why not deploy 25%-50% of your allocated funds now?  If yesterday was the bottom, you can enjoy the ride up from here.  But if we hit your $200-$300 target, then you can purchase more.

People don't have to buy and sell all at once.

Before the situation with gox, I was more certain that bitcoin has about 1-2 years still left in it. Right now I am not sure, because gox can hurt the integrity of the entire market sysem in a way that there won't be anymore rising at all.
I think that the market is too fragile to even invest 25%-50%. It makes more sense to me to wait until there is some certainty and then act. I don't like to invest on pure hype alone.

Thanks for the honest reply, kkaspar.  It is difficult to buy at the "bottoms" because the feel in the air is always so negative [although I'm not saying that yesterday was necessarily the bottom].  The recent Gox news has shaken some people's beliefs in bitcoin, and the price is lower to reflect that. 

But imagine the feel in the air if Gox returns a fair % of customer deposits, well-funded and professionally-audited exchanges open up in NY and London, and the price starts to rise.  Eventually we would look back to the days of getting Goxxed with whimsy--a bump along an enchanted road to great things. 

That being said, if you believe that bitcoin only has 1-2 years left, then I think you are gambling no matter what you do. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kkaspar]

Yep, yep. Not trying to give you advice, just speculating.

Wouldn't the fact that sub-$300 prices would be a major break of the long term trend make you uneasy?

$400 is right on the 200 EMA on the week chart. A perfect place to bounce up off of just like we did in July 2013 at the bottom of the last bear market.

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

[ChrisML]

Lets leave MTgox behind us and move towards the $5000,- per BTC price Max K has been telling us about.

Max Keiser has as much market prediction capabilities as my grandmother.
Yet, I think we might see 5000$ this year during the next major rally (with a bit of luck).

I do like to know, what this is based on? Thin air?

Like, ofcourse... as much I'd really like to see BTC hit that amazing price, is it even possible?!!!

[billyjoeallen]

If it's not a major player or group of players in the tech/finance spaces buying out Gox, then it will not survive. Gox needs to reorganize, recapitalize and rebrand.  Someone like Peter Thiel of PayPal worth billions. Ironically, They would need to keep Coffee Boy on the payroll for quite a while to aid with the transition. That clown didn't give a shit when it was his own money on the line, so he'll probably be even worse as an employee.

No news is bad news here and I think it's safe to assume the worst. Nobody is coming to the rescue. That way the only surprises are pleasant ones. Really hope I'm wrong, but there are only a handful of people who could pull it off and I doubt any of them want to. MtGox may very well be liquidated and claimants will get pennies on the dollar.

Incorrect.  Absolutely, flat out incorrect.  Gox won't require a "big name" to survive.  It's survived this long with a world class jack off at the helm.  All of these exchange owners were no names until Bitcoin became popular.  We don't know exactly how much debt Gox owes, but it's likely that the debt could be paid off in a year or two from exchange fees.

Gox has lost credibility. Lost coins and money are one thing. Lost credibility can only be restored by credible management. No bank will work with them otherwise. You can't just throw money at this problem. Gox had money. They lost it. It's unlikely but possible a new CEO could turn the company around with massive transparency, but who wants to operate like that? Who does operate like that?

[dreamspark]

The fact remains if that amount of coins wasn't stolen, which seems more likely, then gox can probably re pay the majority of its debts. I mean everyone keep saying insolvency and it sounds like that but until someone shows proof that they owe X,Y and Z then complete loss of funds isn't likely.

I feel its more likely that they owe a certain amount and whoever is buying them out has enough to cover the difference

[delphic]

From Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yvdcd/heres_a_summary_of_what_has_happened_over_the/

1.) MtGox allegedly lose 750,000 Bitcoins, according to an ALLEGED leaked document by MtGox, titled "Crisis Strategy Draft". TwoBitIdiot, who leaked the document, is a known person within the Bitcoin community.

2.) He then decides to leak the document to the public 1 - 2 hours later confirming this number, and within the document it says they are to rebrand as http://gox.com and lie their way out of this mess.

3.) After the document is leaked to everyone, MtGox halts trades immediately (Around 5 minutes after the leak)

4.) At this point, http://gox.com is still a parked domain, and not long after starts to redirect to http://mtgox.com (EDIT: More information on the domain situation from chris45215, which basically confirms that MtGox were indeed planning to relaunch as Gox.com as explained in the leaked document. Further info on Domain Investing.)

5.) After around 30 minutes, Coinbase, Blockchain, Circle and Kraken simultaneously release identical articles titled "Joint Statement Regarding the Insolvency of Mt.Gox" (EDIT: Since then, some of the articles have removed the word "insolvency", but not all of them.)

6.) A further 5 minutes later, http://mtgox.com is taken completely offline.

Then:

MtGox web page goes blank, with hidden hint MtGox may be being acquired. - source - comment in HTML of MtGox home page (a placeholder for an announcement about 'acq'). (This web page has since been superceded)

Hours later, MtGox web page carries a statement that "a decision was taken to close all transactions for the time being in order to protect the site and our users"

Karpeles tells Reuters ""We should have an official announcement ready soon-ish. We are currently at a turning point for the business. I can't tell much more for now as this also involves other parties."

Domain name Gox.com now registered to Karpeles/MtGox. http://www.whois.com/whois/gox.com gox.com redirects to mtgox.com. (A third party could have registered this and set it up as a hoax but that seems vanishingly unlikely.)

The "Crisis Strategy Draft" report seems to be the sole source of rumours that 750k bitcoins are missing from MtGox. Also seems to be the source of a new supposed 'Gox' trademark. Rumours about ~750K bitcoins 'missing' from a MtGox cold wallet are confused, with some people assuming that 750K have gone in one go, others assuming that they have leaked away in small amounts over years, and others speculating that they have been destroyed/keys lost. If coins are 'missing', the figure might not be as high as 750k

Facebook page 'gox.com' launched, seems to be fake/troll with increasingly absurd comments about Dogecoin, etc. If the content were genuine, it would surely be on the mtgox.com and/or gox.com websites, not facebook.

IRC seems to carry comments from known(?) MtGox developers about losing their jobs.

MtGox still conspicuously fails to prove that it has Bitcoin assets by signing any in the blockchain, though this may be for commercial/securty reasons.

[cbutters]

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

We are pretty much at those levels percentage wise... I'm going to hope that we've bottomed out similar to july 5, 2013

2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50
71 Day Difference, 42% drop


2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08
87 Days 75% Drop


2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-24 Low before next runup at 400?
87 Days 65% drop

[KeyserSoze]

Er, are you advising me to invest in bitcoin now? 

Unfortunately you missed the recent low of @95 on Gox. That was the time to buy. Now you'll have to wait until price goes astronomically high, then for Coinbase to go insolvent. Then it should plummet back down below $100 again for you to jump on board. Keep your fiat handy!

[deadfi$h]

Yep, yep. Not trying to give you advice, just speculating.

Wouldn't the fact that sub-$300 prices would be a major break of the long term trend make you uneasy?

$400 is right on the 200 EMA on the week chart. A perfect place to bounce up off of just like we did in July 2013 at the bottom of the last bear market.

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

Sounds like we have very different trading/investing strategies. I'm definitely a mid/short term trader so charts are a must for me.

I think there have been huuugely positive signs coming out all through this bear market that have been overshadowed by negative press. So much investment in bitcoin based businesses, apps, big companies accepting bitcoin as payment, atms, general public consciousness of bitcoin, etc, etc. As a long term bull, I think this is the best time one could possibly buy. The price is only currently low because people are freaking out about Gox which has nothing to do with all the positives mentioned above.

Here's what I'm talking about... I mistyped before, this is the 52 week EMA which is exactly the line that the last crash rode up and off its final bottom. Also note that the low of that crash was not near the high of the previous bubble.

[adamstgBit]

Er, are you advising me to invest in bitcoin now? 

Unfortunately you missed the recent low of @95 on Gox. That was the time to buy. Now you'll have to wait until price goes astronomically high, then for Coinbase to go insolvent. Then it should plummet back down below $100 again for you to jump on board. Keep your fiat handy!

yes Jorge now.

[kkaspar]

Thanks for the honest reply, kkaspar.  It is difficult to buy at the "bottoms" because the feel in the air is always so negative [although I'm not saying that yesterday was necessarily the bottom].  The recent Gox news has shaken some people's beliefs in bitcoin, and the price is lower to reflect that. 

But imagine the feel in the air if Gox returns a fair % of customer deposits, well-funded and professionally-audited exchanges open up in NY and London, and the price starts to rise.  Eventually we would look back to the days of getting Goxxed with whimsy--a bump along an enchanted road to great things. 

That being said, if you believe that bitcoin only has 1-2 years left, then I think you are gambling no matter what you do. 

If gox will be taken over by a team of people who have proper financial backing and experience, then I'll probably go bullish for the coming period, until the volumes hold up. If an exchange is run by people capable enough, then it's probable that bitcoin will me marketed in new ways and in new places. But that is a if. I am very skeptical on any information involving gox, because to me it seems more likely that Mark Karpeles isn't this innocent fool that just tends to screw up, but he is actually a rather obnoxious confidence man.
I agree that there is always some gambling with the crypto market. For instance, I am gambling with the fiat that I'm holding in Bitstamp, because there is no guarantee that I can trust them. Only thing I can do is to cut down the gambling part as much as I can.
If the bitcoin market system will get it's sh*t together, then I think that the hype can live around 1-2 years and there can be around 1-2 more bubbles/crashes. I see that bitcoin won't have a very long lifespan, because it's simplistic financial properties will stop it's development at around 100b$+ market cap. It my vision, bitcoin won't ever be a serious financial tool, but it can be a large gambling platform.

[cbutters]

Yep, yep. Not trying to give you advice, just speculating.

Wouldn't the fact that sub-$300 prices would be a major break of the long term trend make you uneasy?

$400 is right on the 200 EMA on the week chart. A perfect place to bounce up off of just like we did in July 2013 at the bottom of the last bear market.

As I see it, going to 200-300$ is the continuation of the long term trend. Every bubble has dropped to the level around the peak of the previous bubble.
I actually don't use the charts much with cryptos to make decisions in trading. This market is unregulated and the wealth highly concentrated, so the price doesn't move in a way that would make sense in regular commodity markets. What interests me the most are the proper reasons that give potential to the rise of demand. If there are new reasons for people to buy and hold, then I'm back being bullish. During the past months there have been only reasons why people should drop bitcoin. I see that only hype and stupidity has postponed this drop.
To me "look! everyone seems to be buying!" is no reason to buy. I need better reasons about the success of the commodity itself, not just another wave of hype.

Sounds like we have very different trading/investing strategies. I'm definitely a mid/short term trader so charts are a must for me.

Here's what I'm talking about... I mistyped before, this is the 52 week EMA which is exactly the line that the last crash rode up and off its final bottom. Also note that the low of that crash was not near the high of the previous bubble.

My sentiment is exactly this.... too many things are identical to the last "growth phase" to ignore.