Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[porcupine87]

Single most bearish issue at the moment:  Unable to break 555 yet, which was the first and second-deepest retracement low post-gox.

We are at 555.8 at the moment.

The low was 535

It was 560$ a couple of hours ago. So what? He says we can't break the 555$. We are slightly above it. Just wanted to mention it...

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/20 !  02/21 !  02/22 !  02/23 !  02/24 !  02/25 !  02/26 !  02/27 !  02/28 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  34.97 |  29.61 |  18.08 |  20.87 |  51.84 | 115.76 |  49.11 |  17.05 |  22.63 | USD
  BitFinEx   |  25.27 |  28.46 |  14.73 |  15.80 |  27.16 |  94.55 |  37.71 |  12.04 |  15.29 | USD
  BTC-e      |  23.37 |  23.64 |  18.68 |  14.24 |  20.78 |  73.86 |  33.61 |  14.60 |  12.74 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   1.60 |   1.15 |   1.08 |   1.06 |   1.06 |   2.23 |   1.87 |   0.89 |   1.34 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.70 |   0.76 |   0.61 |   0.50 |   0.73 |   2.23 |   1.00 |   0.50 |   0.70 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   0.75 |   0.60 |   0.20 |   0.23 |   0.30 |   2.15 |   0.32 |   0.31 |   0.33 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.73 |   0.24 |   0.26 |   0.22 |   0.37 |   0.42 |   0.36 |   0.05 |   0.07 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   |  87.39 |  84.46 |  53.64 |  52.92 | 102.24 | 291.20 | 123.98 |  45.44 |  53.10 |

  Huobi      | 131.14 | 187.12 | 154.12 | 185.15 | 163.47 | 352.76 | 250.64 | 123.38 | 122.00 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  53.49 | 140.75 |  87.71 | 141.90 |  84.03 | 275.68 | 150.41 |  83.60 | 129.17 | CNY
  BTC-China  |  10.97 |  15.23 |   9.29 |  10.42 |  13.12 |  27.72 |  14.72 |   6.71 |   7.17 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.77 |   0.63 |   0.48 |   0.62 |   0.53 |   1.10 |   0.53 |   0.31 |   0.29 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 196.37 | 343.73 | 251.60 | 338.09 | 261.15 | 657.26 | 416.30 | 214.00 | 258.63 |

  TOTAL      | 283.76 | 428.19 | 305.24 | 391.01 | 363.39 | 948.46 | 540.28 | 259.44 | 311.73 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on. 

[empowering]

The thread got slow, so let me ask another basic question from a newbie who has never used bitcoin.

Suppose I am an expert programmer and the operator of a lare bitcoin exchange.  Suppose I keep several hundred thousand bitcoins in cold storage, split into (say) 10 lots with keys stored in pen drives, kept in safety deposit boxes of different banks.  (Sort of like this guy here http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/inside-japan-s-bitcoin-heist.html.)

Is there a way I could discover, by inspecting the blockchain or any other method, that I have already fetched and emptied six of those pen drives, and have only four more to go?

Inspect her gadget

[aminorex]

Single most bearish issue at the moment:  Unable to break 555 yet, which was the first and second-deepest retracement low post-gox.

We are at 555.8 at the moment.

The low was 535

It was 560$ a couple of hours ago. So what? He says we can't break the 555$. We are slightly above it. Just wanted to mention it...

Allow me to rephrase my bearish technical complaint with more precision:  The support line defined by the two deepest lows since the bounce top is now current resistance.   Unless broken, the trend remains bearish on any intraday basis.

EDIT: Now clearly broken at 557, but not decisively.  The ability to decide when it is decisive enough to commit to a view is a tricky thing to master, which illustrates the fundamental conundrum of technical analysis:  It is composed entirely of lagging indicators.

[JorgeStolfi]

Today (Friday Feb/28, 00:00--23:59 UTC) the total trade volume was 312 kBTC, rather on the low side but still more than yesterday's (259 kBTC).

The increase in volume was spread rather evenly: from 214 to 259 kBTC in China (+21%), from 45 to 53 kBTC (+17%) outside China.

However, OKCoin was responsible for most of the increase in China (84 to 12 kBTC, or +55%) while Huobi actually shrunk a bit (from 123 to 122 kBTC).   Is this the first time that OKCoin passes Huobi in volume?

Outside China, Bitstamp still leads with 23 kBTC, while BTC-e (15) and Bitfinex (13) dispute a distant second place.

[JayJuanGee]

Whoever predicted a gradual drop appears to be,right so far...

gradual drop until when, though?  through the weekend... then spurt to the moon.... . and how far is this drop going to go?  To $520 or lower than that?

I'm buying in when we go below 350. But only if I don't become more bearish by then...

Sorry, then you are going to be left behind.. b/c we are NOT going below $450...

I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on.  

Gox has been sufficiently resolved... at least the range of issues is narrowed... surely GOX matters will drag on but the GOX situation is kind of contained now that the exchange is closed.. and we have the bancrupcy filing which gives us an explanation of what had occurred.  Surely the bancruptcy explanation is insufficient and filled with inconsistencies (and likely outright lies), but those statements of facts and the various effects on investors is NOT going to be sufficiently negative to hold back the pent up demand to go up with BTC prices which upward movement will likely take place beginning about next week, if NOT sooner...

[Nightowlace]

I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on. 

You know I keep hearing reading a lot of statements like this. Please keep in mind that real people lost incredible amounts of money either due to theft or incompetence. Some of these people lost a good portion of their bitcoin investment, others lost their entire life savings, and some lost more than you could dream of making in a lifetime. This is not just some more bad news, some whale shit crap, some media hype. This is a real and very unfortunate event that took an insanely large amount of money from the members of this community. Whether the were "newbies" who "deserved it for not securing their assets" or "traders" or "old money that trusted the oldest exchange to handle their coins". Please have some respect for the fact that this was absolutely detrimental to a large group of investors, investors and community members that support(ed) bitcoin and put their hard earned money into it. Could you imagine the agony you would feel if you lost the kind of money these guys did? Some of you couldn't stomach the agony of losing 5 bitcoins, let alone a few hundred bitcoins. I have spoken to some of these people first hand, I am one of those people who also lost some coins, I will tell you this; speaking with a long time bitcoiner and hearing his voice crack and crumble as he comes to terms with the fact that he lost more money then he earns in 10 years worth of paychecks is heartbreaking. It is not "Gox crap"

Sorry for the rant but that's my two sense on the topic.

[aminorex]

Somebody keeps sweeping the book up 5 points, and then waiting for the ask to fill in again.

[aminorex]

Sorry for the rant but that's my two sense on the topic.

Nice rant.  Well-taken, I hope. 

However, from the tone of this particular thread in the past week or two, all you are likely to get back is nasty, brutish and short.  The degree of solidarity and humane compassion the wall observers demonstrate through a capitulation is reminiscent of 10 crabs in an 8 crab bucket.

[johnny211]

China seems to have woken up in a good mood today

[aminorex]

As expected.  At 570 I'm starting to side bullish.  At 612 I'm definitely bullish.  And at 0.022 I'm bullish on goxcoin.

[portfail]

Exactly how i feel:

speaking with a long time bitcoiner and hearing his voice crack and crumble as he comes to terms with the fact that he lost more money then he earns in 10 years worth of paychecks is heartbreaking. It is not "Gox crap"

And why they can't understand:

Some of you couldn't stomach the agony of losing 5 bitcoins

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

Bill Maher really made fun of those who got goxxed kinda sad, but it was his style of satire none the less.

[pjviitas]

I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on. 

You know I keep hearing reading a lot of statements like this. Please keep in mind that real people lost incredible amounts of money either due to theft or incompetence. Some of these people lost a good portion of their bitcoin investment, others lost their entire life savings, and some lost more than you could dream of making in a lifetime. This is not just some more bad news, some whale shit crap, some media hype. This is a real and very unfortunate event that took an insanely large amount of money from the members of this community. Whether the were "newbies" who "deserved it for not securing their assets" or "traders" or "old money that trusted the oldest exchange to handle their coins". Please have some respect for the fact that this was absolutely detrimental to a large group of investors, investors and community members that support(ed) bitcoin and put their hard earned money into it. Could you imagine the agony you would feel if you lost the kind of money these guys did? Some of you couldn't stomach the agony of losing 5 bitcoins, let alone a few hundred bitcoins. I have spoken to some of these people first hand, I am one of those people who also lost some coins, I will tell you this; speaking with a long time bitcoiner and hearing his voice crack and crumble as he comes to terms with the fact that he lost more money then he earns in 10 years worth of paychecks is heartbreaking. It is not "Gox crap"

Sorry for the rant but that's my two sense on the topic.

+1

I can't help thinking that there has been some permanent fallout from this...some people got left behind on the GOX event which is sad.

Some people might think ya ya...now lets get back to CCMF to da moon but too many of these types of events can end up having a significant impact on the future of Bitcoin.

[BubbaGumpShrimpinBoatCapn]

I want to know why, with a digital currency like bitcoin, the stolen coins cannot be identified and blocked from use.  If the stolen coins could be disabled, then new coins could be automatically reproduced and restored to funds?  Why does each coin not have a fingerprint of sorts?  Maybe if this idea is antithetical to bitcoin, then another company could create a competing product that was in such a way theft proof, high insurance, etc.

Just wondering.

[surfer43]

In positive news...

Lost coins only make everyone else’s coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.

Did satoshi think the amount would be 800,000?

[thezerg]

I want to know why, with a digital currency like bitcoin, the stolen coins cannot be identified and blocked from use.  If the stolen coins could be disabled, then new coins could be automatically reproduced and restored to funds?  Why does each coin not have a fingerprint of sorts?  Maybe if this idea is antithetical to bitcoin, then another company could create a competing product that was in such a way theft proof, high insurance, etc.

Just wondering.

Who decides that the coins are stolen?  Maybe if I don't like you (or we are competing bidder to acquire a company) I just claim stolen block your coins and later say "oops terrible mistake".

Or I spend my coins and get the product.  Next I claim the coins are stolen.  Get new coins & keep the product.

Suddenly all the coins in your account are unspendable.  You bought them from a reputable exchange so WTF?  Well, someone just noticed that they were stolen from their wallet a week ago.  They've gone through about 50 people between then and now but you are the bag holder.


Its just unworkable.  Best to identify the thief and possibly throw him/her in jail, and extract not the exact coins but equivalent value from the thief through normal means.