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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26403527 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cee-euros
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March 03, 2014, 12:10:09 AM

went away for a few minutes and things went mental,
who started it?
Dragonkiller
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March 03, 2014, 12:10:12 AM

Maybe his Monday Fiat arrived.

not possible
chriswilmer
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March 03, 2014, 12:11:20 AM

Wow. Someone slammed on that market buy button pretty hard.

I like to imagine a panicked, anxious trader... finally capitulating and deciding to sell all of his remaining bitcoins... so that he can pay off some accumulating debts. However, in his state of clouded judgement and jitters, he hits "market buy" instead of "market sell" and all of his remaining fiat get turned into bitcoins. Since there was no wall to buy into, the price jumps by $10... and some speculators posts on forums about a huge buy order. "Buy order?" "Buying?" "Buy" "BUY" "BUY!!!!" "CCMF WE"RE GOING TO THE MOON" they post. An enormous rally begins.

The previously panicked trader, realizing what happened, decides to capitalize on the moment the only way he knows how.

He logs into Bitcointalk.org and posts, "I totally called the bottom."
dreamspark
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March 03, 2014, 12:11:25 AM

Just a standard pump by the looks of it.
mellowyellow
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March 03, 2014, 12:13:17 AM

I think you guys sometimes forget people do actually want to buy bitcoins, it's not just traders. There's not always a motive apart from simply buying.
EuroTrash
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March 03, 2014, 12:14:52 AM

9:13 AM in Japan. Hotline officially opens at 10AM.
dreamspark
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March 03, 2014, 12:15:23 AM

Someone who just wants to buy bitcoins doesnt just throw million dollar bids up.
solex
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March 03, 2014, 12:16:12 AM

Maybe his Monday Fiat arrived.

Don't underestimate the most bullish day of the week:

So what could happen Monday?  Probability could give us a hint in addition to price action.

I have had debates with Bitcoin traders about trading on weekends.  One postulated that because Bitcoin is the only financial instrument whose exchanges are open seven days per week that price should go up the most over the weekend with high volume.  Another observed Sunday there is a steady rise before the Monday/Tuesday pumps before a Thursday/Friday selloff.  The former is a logical anecdote; more hobby traders participating on the weekend because they have more time.  The latter is a good observation.

But are these ideas profitably tradeable?  Do the statistics agree and knowing them could we better time our entries and exits?

I broke down the data for BitStamp just using Daily Open versus Close.  Basically; was the day UP or Down?  To capture the data with the best relevance I used all days from 1/1/2013 onward.  So what was the probability for each day of the week to close UP?

Saturday: 47%
Sunday: 70%
Monday: 74%
Tuesday: 66%
Wednesday: 68%
Thursday: 55%
Friday: 57%

When you consider that during this time Bitcoin has risen +6100% the probability is skewed to the upside.  That means that even though Sunday and Monday seem to be the best days to go bullish is it wise to just GO on that day?  Probably not; unless the charts back it up.  What does stand out when considering the bias is the one day that fails to even break 50/50; Saturday.


EuroTrash
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March 03, 2014, 12:16:16 AM

I think you guys sometimes forget people do actually want to buy bitcoins, it's not just traders. There's not always a motive apart from simply buying.

Like a thousand+ coins in a single buy? Hmmm
zyk
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March 03, 2014, 12:16:46 AM

I think you guys sometimes forget people do actually want to buy bitcoins, it's not just traders. There's not always a motive apart from simply buying.

the only motive for buying bitcoin is selling them as long as you still could possibly get cash at an exchange... Wink
EuroTrash
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March 03, 2014, 12:20:56 AM

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.
Amechan
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March 03, 2014, 12:22:37 AM

9:13 AM in Japan. Hotline officially opens at 10AM.

Surely they will have English speaking staff  Roll Eyes
adsdas
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March 03, 2014, 12:24:31 AM

Don't miss the train!  Smiley
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March 03, 2014, 12:24:35 AM

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.

just someone prodding us in the right direction  Grin
paratox
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March 03, 2014, 12:25:02 AM

MACD Indicator on bitcoinwisdom.com shows green candles on 1h/2h/4h/6h/12h/1d chart  (Bitstamp)

Bullish?

vortex1878
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March 03, 2014, 12:26:44 AM

MACD Indicator on bitcoinwisdom.com shows green candles on 1h/2h/4h/6h/12h/1d chart  (Bitstamp)

Bullish?



no! sell.
TERA
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March 03, 2014, 12:26:53 AM

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.
Really? You're theorizing there's "big news" just because of a 1500btc wall? What kind of logic is that? It's just one guy's order, and the volume today is 7000btc. By the way 1500btc is nothing. When we came out of the bear market in 2013, there were two 10,000btc walls on the order book at the same time pushing the price up and buying all the dumps. There was also volume.
Nicholas-Carraway
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March 03, 2014, 12:27:33 AM

I warned everyone not to piss off tera.  Gonna whipsaw into the ground  Cry
TERA
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March 03, 2014, 12:29:29 AM

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.
Really? You're theorizing there's "big news" just because of a 1500btc wall? What kind of logic is that? It's just one guy's order, and the volume today is 7000btc. By the way 1500btc is nothing. When we came out of the bear market in 2013, there were two 10,000btc walls on the order book at the same time pushing the price up and buying all the dumps. There was also volume.

Price was also 20x lower?? Can't really compere this.
The price doesn't matter. the USD volume doesn't matter. The BTC volume is what moves the market, because there are always the same amount of BTC, so it is the same ratio. Required btc volume might decrease a LITTLE over time due to hoarding, but not in ratio with price. Not 20 times.
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March 03, 2014, 12:33:29 AM

1936 coins to go down to 560. What-the-fluff-is-happening?
There must be news somewhere. Either that or gigantic pump.
Really? You're theorizing there's "big news" just because of a 1500btc wall? What kind of logic is that? It's just one guy's order, and the volume today is 7000btc. By the way 1500btc is nothing. When we came out of the bear market in 2013, there were two 10,000btc walls on the order book at the same time pushing the price up and buying all the dumps. There was also volume.

The UK news is pretty huge http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zcvxd/britain_to_scrap_bitcoin_tax/

This is a green light to lots of cautious investors at a time when the price is relatively low. London is a major financial centre and their favourable approach will be very encouraging.

There's a lot of fiat waiting to buy. Nobody wants to miss the train.
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