Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/03It seems that the Baron pulled too hard on his bootstraps today
:
Prediction posted on: Monday 2014-03-03, 02:35 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-03-03, 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 3400 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3825 CNY
Error: 425 CNY (~69 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 556 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 671 USD
Error: 115 USD
It must be said however that the trade volume V
h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59 UTC) was 12.6 kBTC, whereas the total volume V
d for the day is unlikely to exceed 400 kBTC. Therefore, the prediction is not supposed to apply anyway becuse this was a False Slumber Point.
The
Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below. The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions. The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.
The following chart shows the
Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are
Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12. The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).
The ratio of Huobi's price to Bitstamp's price was about 5.7, much lower than the usual R = 6.12.
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