[edited out]
I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:
Year BTC/USD
-------------------
2020 $ 17,000
2021 $ 34,000
2022 $ 68,000
2023 $ 136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024 $ 272,000
2025 $ 544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026 $ 1,088,000
2027 $ 2,176,000
2028 $ 4,352,000
2029 $ 8,704,000
2030 $ 17,408,000
2031 $ 34,816,000
2032 $ 69,632,000
2033 $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!
How about we start more conservatively with the beginning of the year 208-week moving average, which would have been about $5k
-------------------
2020 $ 5,000
2021 $ 10,000
2022 $ 20,000
2023 $ 40,000
2024 $ 80,000
2025 $ 160,000
2026 $ 320,000
2027 $ 640,000
2028 $ 1,280,000
2029 $ 2,560,000
2030 $ 5,120,000
2031 $ 10,240,000
2032 $ 20,480,000
2033 $ 40,960,000
Still seems like a bit too much (too bullish) for my thinking, ..........[edited oout].
I would prefer either having a smaller base or having a curve that is reducing each year instead of expecting a doubling every year, the percentage would slope down - which seems more realistic and sustainable for a longer term.
I must be fucked up in the head to spend so much time on this subject that has already been covered and worked out by much smarter peeps (especially when it comes to working with numbers)?
Nonetheless, I could NOT let these ideas go... I kept thinking about the BTC historical price and potentially reasonable bullish predictions, and thinking about ways to maybe make a better projection out to 2033, as you had chosen that year, AlcoHoDL...
Sure, I understand that since early times in BTC history, there have been a lot of BTC price projections that have been based on historical data and then attempting to project the BTC price out from the historical data.. and likely those guys are way better mathematicians than me... one of the more famous and recent BTC price prediction models is the PlanB stock to flow model...
In any event, I just wanted to put some kind of a more layman's attempt at projecting outwardly, and my model attempts to account for my currently dominant ideas of hybridizing the three current persuasive BTC price prediction models that I frequently mention in my posts: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.
In the below numbers, the first couple of columns (after the year) I put the actual average weighted BTC trade price for July for each of those years... I am not sure exactly why I picked July for each of the years, except perhaps to start from when BTC started to somewhat develop a price, which was largely in the middle of 2010. The second column shows the actual yearly gain, and the next two columns show the projected percentage gain and the projected price respectively for each of the years.
Of course there seems to be a bit of randomness in my selection of percentage gains for each of the years - but instead of merely showing straight-line BTC price performance that may well become unsustainable if kept as a straight-line, I attempted to somewhat ballpark line up BTC actual historical prices while also attempting to account for BTC's four-year fractal dynamics and its s-curve exponential adoption dynamics, which is attempting to outline a reasonable historical BTC price, reasonable BTC price projections and also an attempt to assert that from time to time the numbers are not necessarily going to line up, so from time to time, the actual BTC price is going to be underperforming and overperforming the theoretical conceptualizations of what would be considered to be a fair BTC projected price at any of the given time targets.
Actual Actual Projected Projected
July Yrly Gain price (based on Projected Gain)
weighted Gain
price2010 $0.64
2011 $14 2109.38% 600% $3.84
2012 $9 66.67% 500% $23.04
2013 $97 1077.78% 500% $138.24
2014 $560 577.32% 250% $484
2015 $288 51.43% 125% $1,089
2016 $654 227.08% 100% $2,177
2017 $2,732 417.74% 90% $4,137
2018 $8,130 297.58% 80% $7,446
2019 $9,660 118.82% 70% $12,659
2020 $11,115 115.06% 70% $21,520
2021 100% $43,039
2022 90% $81,774
2023 90% $155,367
2024 80% $279,657
2025 80% $503,378
2026 70% $855,734
2027 60% $1,369,135
2028 60% $2,190,555
2029 75% $3,833,479
2030 60% $6,133,578
2031 60% $9,813,743
2032 60% $15,702,019
2033 60% $25,123,277
I still believe that my numbers in the above chart are both bullish and bearish (and surely, I was able to bring the 2033 number down by nearly half from my earlier off-the cuff projections, which makes me feel somewhat better), and surely many WO regular participants likely appreciate that historically I had not personally expected to receive any more than 6% per year BTC price appreciations in order for my BTC holdings to perform somewhat in line with the historical performance of my various investments (largely based on projecting future performance based on my historical traditional investment gains).
I will admit that based on many of the macro-world financial happenings of the last year or so, I have considered upgrading my personal BTC price performance expectations to something in the territory of 10% to 12% instead of my seemingly overly conservative 6% per year, and still, I am basing those kinds of personal BTC price trajectories on the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $7,100), so even though I am making seemingly pie-in-the-sky bullish projections in the above chart regarding what BTC prices seem to have the potential to do based on reasonable BTC price predicting models, any kind of BTC price performance that goes beyond my own more conservative estimation of 10% to 12% per year based on the jumping off point of the 208-week moving average is largely icing on the cake for my own personal finances, even though it does seem that on personal levels, I am going to continue to have those kinds of first world problems of having an investment (namely BTC) that way the hell outperforms my expectations and accordingly going to have to continue to have to figure out ways to spend some of the extra value (which I have been attempting to accomplish such figurings in recent years too, largely based on my own BTC portfolio ongoingly and continually outperforming even my more bullish of personal BTC price trajectories).
In other words, I could give less than two shits if the actual numbers that I have projected to be realistic possibilities end up playing out. My own personal finances do not depend on that level of bullishness, and I am not even sure if I will be in a good position (in terms of youth and energy to be able to enjoy that level of wealth, anyhow, even if the $50k or $100k scenarios were to play out in the coming years.
Poll
