Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

  Any advice on what exchange to use from the USA?  Asking for a backwards, techless  Ozark hick    funding/withdrawal options other than wire transfer?  I thought Kraken would be good, but apparently its easier to use from the North Pole than from within US.  

Gemini is great.   ACH transfers to/from bank account with very high limits.   Has always worked very well for folks (so I am told).   What is a 1099?

a 1099 is a USA tax document

like a w-2 wages form
or a w-2g retirement pension ?  have to check this. I did it is a  gambling winings form

just because it is reportable does not mean it is taxable.

1099-r is for pensions

longer list of other 1099 forms

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_1099#:~:text=Jump%20to%20navigation%20Jump%20to%20search.%20Form%201099,tips%20%28for%20which%20Form%20W-2%20is%20used%20instead%29.

[explorer]

 Any advice on what exchange to use from the USA?  Asking for a backwards, techless  Ozark hick    funding/withdrawal options other than wire transfer?  I thought Kraken would be good, but apparently its easier to use from the North Pole than from within US.  

no advice per se but ill give a quick rundown on coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so. be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

cons:

KYC to the max
they will track the shit outta you.
cant send or receive from any gambling site (pretty sure).
will sell all info they can get on you and your corn to whoever wants it.
site always seems to have "issues" when things get hot and interesting.
thoughtfully sends the IRS a 1099 form in case you forget

pros:

takes yubikey as 2fa
whitelisted withdrawal addys
a vault that time delays coins moving (optional)
links to bank account, and i think debit cards but not sure on that never used debit card there

Coinbase is good for cash outs.

Always remember if it goes in and out of coinbase it will be tax reportable for a USA citizen.

  Good to know.  I want them to be able to easily deposit/trade/withdraw a few (very) small amounts to get familiar with the process before I even consider handing over the keys I've been custodian of for way too long. 

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, with in the past day or so, I also incorporated "vapourminer lols" within my BTC sale orders in around similar price arenas that he had outlined.. largely in a symbiotic kind of a spirit of the idea... (I hate to be such a non-original copy cat... but it seemed to be just too good of an oportunidad to pass up) ... Perhaps, I will wait until after such passenings to disclose more particulars to the extent that such lols are worth mentioning and presuming that at some point in the near future (aka soon^tm) BTC price movements "force" those wannabe lols to play out.   

my sense of humor has been branded "odd" on more than one occasion. fun is where you find it.

The incorporation of such funzies into sell orders resonated with me... so maybe we are the same person.. just trying to act like we are different peeps on the interwebs?

im forced to admit my ladders are setup somewhat like yours, i set them up and then its hands off for the most part. plan the sequence best you can and then relax, the emotions can now stay out of it. when occasions warrant it i go readjust stuff. luckily i had done this like a week or two ago and fine tuned the 16k-20k range and the sells then buybacks pretty much happened all while i slept. sold at 17.5k - 18.5k or so and bought it back around 16.2 - 16.7 all preset up. almost took the fun out of it.

There are some ways to make those buy/sell orders more automatic, but I prefer an ongoing bit of hands on – to manually engage with whatever my process happens to be or an order is trigger which causes me to have to set up a counter order and to consider if I am going to tweak such order in any way or go with the default idea that I have.  Also, not only am I considering possible tweakenings, when I set up orders, whenever an order fills, I like to get in there and set the opposite side... just in case there is a quickie reversal.. If an reversal is quick, then it is like making free money...... within a very short period of time (even if the amounts are not really life change or maybe buy a steak dinner or something nice, if I were to roll any of the profits out, but usually the profits just get folded into the system for a kind of delayed gratification.

In recent times, it has been somewhat more difficult to make the free money with quickie reversals because my spreads have been getting larger and large – in terms of percentages - which is also o.k. with me because it is somewhat converting me more and more on the spectrum of becoming more of a swing trader and less of a day trader - meaning that with the passage of time my orders are tending NOT to execute as easily or as frequently as they used to do..

I am NOT sure if I will ever graduate completely to a complete swing trader who is NEVER trading some of the quick and easy moves that just allow for the stacking of both dollars and sats.. and I suppose if I just become more bored with setting buy/sell orders, then maybe I will just make the trading gap so BIG that they rarely execute.. I suppose that would be better, anyhow, to NOT really watch the BTC price on a fairly regular basis in case the price may have moved a lot.

I can hypothesize that less than 10% BTC price moves might start to feel more tedious, even though right now my orders tend to fill in a 6% to 7% range.  I recall when I was new at playing this little laddering game, my orders were like 2% or 3%, so they were triggering all the time and they were not as profitable, but gave me more practice to get used to the matter and to later slowly increase the spreads.

What I am imagining is that in the future, BTC is just going to become less volatile, so my orders are not really filling as much, even though the spread might stay in a 6% to 12% range – and maybe more so gravitating towards 12%... not sure, yet.. because I still find it fun, even 6% to 7%-ish.

my lowest "real" (as opposed to a "lulz") active buy order is at like 1k lol. dunno how long thats ones been there. think ill cancel that one and move it up  a bit heh.. that leaves 8kish is my lowest. which isnt low enough really imo. never know what honeybadger might think up. 6k sounds nice as a low.

gotta keep some lulz amounts lower (and higher) of course.

Yeah, those outrageous price moves do not seem to be happening as much anymore in bitcoin, and I think part of the reason is just that there are way more fills of order books and traders seem to be more than willing to jump in to stop the BTC price from moving outrageous amounts.

I don’t really feel that I am keeping my outrageous outlier orders out there for those kinds of slippage reasons.. but instead the buy orders down to $5k are just lingering ones, even though I am developing BIGGER and BIGGER doubts about any possibility of those orders being filled.. even sub $8k is looking at a fraction of a percentage of a chance, at best.

[explorer]

I don’t really feel that I am keeping my outrageous outlier orders out there for those kinds of slippage reasons.. but instead the buy orders down to $5k are just lingering ones, even though I am developing BIGGER and BIGGER doubts about any possibility of those orders being filled.. even sub $8k is looking at a fraction of a percentage of a chance, at best.

   But the glory of bagging the outlier!  A couple years ago I checked my bitstamp account, which I hadn't used for a while. Instead of the fiat I thought I'd left, I found a disproportionate amount of BTC.  Apparently I stuck a lowball bid in just for lulz    Sadly, I haven't caught one since.

[JayJuanGee]

The MSM is starting to run the same playbook as in early 2017.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-feeling-lucky-bitcoiners-missed-145015022.html

Distraction, diversion, dissuasion. Hit pieces. Talk of shitcoins.

The message is the same: "Stay away from Bitcoin".

TLDR:  Have fun staying poor.

whatever all that means.

Don't be such a negative  Nancy

I have been saying:  "whatever all that means" in regards to deadman's zone, because it is a bit of an allusive concept in determining what might happen and then what ends up happening.. I am not meaning to imply anything negative when something is merely allusive.. because it is what it is.. in terms of my trying to be descriptive rather than prescriptive   - if that makes any senses.

I don’t really feel that I am keeping my outrageous outlier orders out there for those kinds of slippage reasons.. but instead the buy orders down to $5k are just lingering ones, even though I am developing BIGGER and BIGGER doubts about any possibility of those orders being filled.. even sub $8k is looking at a fraction of a percentage of a chance, at best.

   But the glory of bagging the outlier!  A couple years ago I checked my bitstamp account, which I hadn't used for a while. Instead of the fiat I thought I'd left, I found a disproportionate amount of BTC.  Apparently I stuck a lowball bid in just for lulz    Sadly, I haven't caught one since.

Like you seem to be suggesting, explorer, it seems like a bit of a long shot that might play out, and I suppose that the ONLY real cost is just tying up whatever capital that you end up dedicating towards such longshots that might be better deployed towards working for you in more meaningful ways.

For example, if you put several hundred on each exchange and each trading pair, it might start to add up to a lot of capital that is just tied up with little likelihood of actually paying off.   If you have several thousands of dollars tied up on those long shots, then it may be better odds than a lottery, but it may well end up costing you as much as buying lottery tickets.. and I personally do not buy lottery tickets, and I have done fine in life, so far... even though maybe I could have one a multi-million dollar powerball by only investing $10 per week and spending hours of my mental energies in monitoring such nonsense?   Ultimately, to each his own.

who of you guys have at least one burn out experience?

Define:  "burn out"   Context?

We might have gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves (white line). If we repeat the previous cycle, we have to wait 6x2500 blocks from today before continuing the upwards stratosphere trajectory again (104 days):


https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1332186796566855681

Bit of a scary chart, but also very realistic to me. In 2015 price made a local top at $500 after a parabolic run then took 6 months to recover. The same thing happened again when getting close to $800, it took another 6 months to consolidate that level too  

I realise that we're not at the equivalent level of $8-9K (still down 50%+) and we've already had a good two month consolidation period at this level, as well as a 16 months cool off period from $13K which is kind of the equivalent of $800 back in 2016, but still. I'd be surprised not to see a recovery take less than 3 months, and imagine it could take 6 in total.

Does not seem scary to me.. either the chart or the possibility that it could take several months to break above various resistance points; however, the breaking through $12,500, $13,880 and then $17,250 and so far only getting a dippening to $16,218 does not remove BTC price dynamics from continuing UPpity.. but sure, no real surprise to have some willingness to revisit any of those three resistance points that were so easily broken through in the past 5 weeks or so.

In other words, I would NOT be surprised to experience testing and retesting of those various lower resistance points, but I am not asserting that we must test such lower resistance points in order to continue UPpity.

[DaRude]

 Any advice on what exchange to use from the USA?  Asking for a backwards, techless  Ozark hick    funding/withdrawal options other than wire transfer?  I thought Kraken would be good, but apparently its easier to use from the North Pole than from within US.  

no advice per se but ill give a quick rundown on coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so. be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

cons:

KYC to the max
they will track the shit outta you.
cant send or receive from any gambling site (pretty sure).
will sell all info they can get on you and your corn to whoever wants it.
site always seems to have "issues" when things get hot and interesting.
thoughtfully sends the IRS a 1099 form in case you forget

pros:

takes yubikey as 2fa
whitelisted withdrawal addys
a vault that time delays coins moving (optional)
links to bank account, and i think debit cards but not sure on that never used debit card there

Didn't roll out segwit or batching for the longest time (bloated the blockchain and inflating network fees) but started pushing Btrash to noobs right away
Bought Neutrino a company that sells hacking tools to the governments
Created Coinbase Analytics software and sold it to US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and IRS
Overall shitty exchange that apparently goes down every time there's a high volatility in the market (actually kinda fun way to spot coinbase supporters when they bitch about the service)
etc, etc, etc... look up #DeleteCoinbase


Yet for some reason people continue to promote them and try to get noobs to support that company  

Mandatory required quote every time there's a mention of coinbase users

...
So i see we still have few masochists supporting coinbase

[JayJuanGee]

who of you guys have at least one burn out experience?

Cuidado with opsec, josquared.  

We call it 'cursing in the church': Bitcoin will do some sideways a few weeks while Alts will start to pump.

You heard it here first  

That's a step too far, wekkel-fekkel.

BTC off the lows.

Nothing dramatic, but bears are low on ammo it seems.

I would expect another test of $16,300 at some point but this rally has been ... well ... different  

Don’t be out of coins I would say.

Exactamente!!!!!!

And, cuidado with how you play your shitcoins, too... to the extent that you feel comfortable gambling with crap... instead of recognizing the actual power of king daddy.

[sirazimuth]

..... coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so.
....

Same here bro.
Only bitcoin outfit I have ever dealt with that has never once been hacked or I've ever had a single issue with in my seven years
in the crypto currency theater( and I've had a lot of them. )

.... be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

....

A lot of Coinbase hate in the wob thread ?? 
Say it it ain't so!!!  lmao


...

[DaRude]

..... coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so.
....

Same here bro.
Only bitcoin outfit I have ever dealt with that has never once been hacked or I've ever had a single issue with in my seven years
in the crypto currency theater( and I've had a lot of them. )

.... be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

....

A lot of Coinbase hate in the wob thread ?? 
Say it it ain't so!!!  lmao


...

Coinbase Offers US Feds New Crypto Surveillance Tools

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-analytics-blockchain-analysis-crypto-government

It's one thing to play by the rules and report to IRS which is required, but it's a different ball game to actively sell tracking software to governments, why are you funding this again?

Use gemini at least the Winterfloss twins are pro bitcoin

[explorer]

..... coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so.
....

Same here bro.
Only bitcoin outfit I have ever dealt with that has never once been hacked or I've ever had a single issue with in my seven years
in the crypto currency theater( and I've had a lot of them. )

.... be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

....

A lot of Coinbase hate in the wob thread ??  
Say it it ain't so!!!  lmao


...

Coinbase Offers US Feds New Crypto Surveillance Tools

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-analytics-blockchain-analysis-crypto-government

It's one thing to play by the rules and report to IRS which is required, but it's a different ball game to actively sell tracking software to governments, why are you funding this again?

Use gemini at least the Winterfloss twins are pro bitcoin

Yeah fuck coinbase seems a reasonable stance.  I expect to get an earful regarding KYC etc regardless of exchange, though.

[JayJuanGee]

But you know what, i have been talking to people about bitcoin since like $300, so I almost wish I would have been more assertive in the past...

I have always told people that it was just crazy and could go to zero, and nobody has ever bought, but I totally should have told them stfu bitch and buy..
Hindsight is 2020 and things...

“It was just $190 and is now $700??? Sounds like it’s ““TOO HIGH”” Now“
“Yeah man, I should have bought, but it’s like $3500 now.. It’s ““Too high”””
“Wow it went to $20k? I should have bought”
“Bitcoin is ““only”” $4500 now? Lol I thought it was $20k??... Sucker..””
“You should have sold..”

Fuck em..

Each of us can only do so much hand-holding, and the mere fact that you let them know about bitcoin should be appreciated.  If you also let them know that you bought and are buying and recommend that they figure out a plan that they can buy within their means, then you have done about as much as you can do.  Each person has to figure out when and how much to get into BTC, including precoiners that can either choose to get involved in BTC now, or later .. or maybe die without ever having had bought any bitcoin.

There has been more than one time that I informed no coiner peeps that they were witnessing the budding stages of what is likely to be one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history.. and they can choose to be part of it, or they can sit on the sidelines.

Nobody seems to know what the fuck I am talking about and they get their little digs in here and there, but ultimately it seems to me that they continue to be nocoiners.. or at least I had not heard of any of them buying.

[explorer]

Nobody seems to know what the fuck I am talking about and they get their little digs in here and there, but ultimately it seems to me that they continue to be nocoiners.. or at least I had not heard of any of them buying.

  But... If you talk as much as you type, they maybe just didn't hear you.  I know.  I should save it for Thursday.  Just sayin'.

   Anyway, I think most everyone here can relate.  Not just to your garrulous verbosity, but this particular point 

[JayJuanGee]

2021                                                                  100%              $43,039

Good God that would be nice to think of. I think I read some story on Twitter the other day, of some OG buying a 52 ft Catamaran, half in BTC and half in cash. Near $850,000 US I think.

Out here in FL relaxing over Thanksgiving with the wife, and seriously thinking of buying some beachfront property after our outing earlier today. Gorgeous weather this time of year. Much nicer than Dallas.

When 1BTC / 52ft Catamaran parity ?

If you read my description and you look at the other numbers, you can see that my list of prices attempts to make a BTC trajectory that is based on a kind of fair value calculation - so the $43,039 could end up being way off or merely a kind of pass through point.  

For example, if you notice the projected price for 2013 is $138.24, and sure 2013 did pass through that price point, but it went way beyond $138.24.  Similar BTC price performance dynamic was true for 2017. My chart shows $4,137 for 2017..... So what I am trying to suggest is that I was largely attempting to make a trajectory that may play out in ballpark ways in the long run, but I believe such trajectory is a bit more realistic than having some kind of straight line averaging of BTC prices of 2x each year.

There are quite a few convincing estimates that BTC is going to experience a kind of exponential period that goes into 2021 and some folks even consider that it could drag into 2022 as well, and I would not consider my chart to be inconsistent with the various BTC price trajectories that anticipate BTC prices anywhere between $100k and $300k at some point towards the top of this BTC price run that might play out in the next 9 to 18 months - ish.

Nobody seems to know what the fuck I am talking about and they get their little digs in here and there, but ultimately it seems to me that they continue to be nocoiners.. or at least I had not heard of any of them buying.

  But... If you talk as much as you type, they maybe just didn't hear you. 

You seem to be the one who is not hearing.. or maybe you are lacking reading comprehension.

I don't make any attempts at hard sales to anyone.. that's the point.... so you seem to have little to no clue in regards to attempting to gauge how much I might be saying.. when largely you are actually saying the opposite of what I have actually represented in my description.

I know.  I should save it for Thursday.  Just sayin'.

What good is it going to do for you to save it for Thursday when you are factually off base, and your supposed zinger has no zing... How could you have a zing in a supposed zinger that does not even attempt to deal with, or even to grasp what had been described to be the situation by me earlier.

   Anyway, I think most everyone here can relate.  Not just to your garrulous verbosity, but this particular point 

I am glad that you believe that others can relate, and surely I am thinking something similar - even if you might be having some difficulties with the way that I had described it (which may have some differing details than others might describe) or some particulars of the description.

[explorer]

...woosh...

[Hueristic]

Yeah fuck coinbase seems a reasonable stance.  I expect to get an earful regarding KYC etc regardless of exchange, though.

Paxos was painless and easy, just an ID IIRC.

EDIT: just checked and it was a shot of me holding my id with a utility bill and date and time and I was verified in a few minutes.

[JayJuanGee]

...woosh...

You're the one that made the comment, and I responded... smartie-pants.  

[nullius]

Coinbase Offers US Feds New Crypto Surveillance Tools

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-analytics-blockchain-analysis-crypto-government

It's one thing to play by the rules and report to IRS which is required, but it's a different ball game to actively sell tracking software to governments, why are you funding this again?

At this point, I consider Coinbase to be primarily a surveillance company that also offers a few exchange services as a sideline, rather than vice versa.

—Someone else, please write a wall of wordy-man text explaining in gruesome detail all of the bad things about Coinbase...  I will just say here for now, let us also not forget, Coinbase were anti-Bitcoin 2Xers.  And I think that they have not changed a bit.

Beware of Bitcoin's possible incompatibility with some major services

The following companies and services have pledged to adopt the contentious hard fork: [...]

• Coinbase (United States)

One of my Newbie posts, from when I had been actively posting for seventeen days:

You fork, you die.

Genuine Bitcoin has crushed numerous forks and attempted forks:  “Bitcoin XT”, “Bitcoin Unlimited”, “Bitcoin Classic”, and the “New York Agreement” (misnamed “Segwit2X”; nothing to do with Segwit), to name but a few.  These no longer exist.  For the current outbreak of forks, if you wish to claim some fork coins, then dump them in exchange for real Bitcoin, and enjoy your free bitcoins.  Otherwise, simply ignore.  Anything from “Bitcoin Cash” to “Bitcoin Super Diamond Plus2X Plutonium With Ponies” is only a scam; and these scams will die sooner or later, just as did their antecedents.

There are many pretenders to the Bitcoin title.  However:

There is only one Bitcoin.

^^^ segwit.party 404 image replaced with my saved copy.  I am reluctant to edit the post from 2017.

I mean this:  “WE WILL NEVER FORGET”.  If you run a centralized service and try to leverage your huge market share against Bitcoin, then you are untrustworthy, and I will always assume unless otherwise proved that you are still trying to subvert Bitcoin.

I am now about twenty hundred trillion pages behind WO.  My apologies if I missed something that you wanted me to see, or if you replied to one of my posts here.

[serveria.com]

..... coinbase as ive used it since 2013 or so.
....

Same here bro.
Only bitcoin outfit I have ever dealt with that has never once been hacked or I've ever had a single issue with in my seven years
in the crypto currency theater( and I've had a lot of them. )

.... be aware it gets a lot of hate for reasons but it works.

....

A lot of Coinbase hate in the wob thread ?? 
Say it it ain't so!!!  lmao


...

Coinbase Offers US Feds New Crypto Surveillance Tools

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-analytics-blockchain-analysis-crypto-government

It's one thing to play by the rules and report to IRS which is required, but it's a different ball game to actively sell tracking software to governments, why are you funding this again?

Use gemini at least the Winterfloss twins are pro bitcoin

I remember I checked it and Gemini had huge fees... so what else can you suggest if not Coinbase? Kraken? Binance? Ol good Bitstamp? Cashout time is getting closer HODLers need to be ready...  perhaps OTC is the way to go? 

[serveria.com]

Anybody ordered (& received) Binance's VISA card? Could be a great replacement for a Coinbase debit card?

Meanwhile: we're over $18k again!

[Cryptotourist]

If math could confirm,
all time high in November,
there is still a chance.

#haiku