Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

It was just about this point in the last cycle that we were hoping to breech 1k again.  Just 4 years ago.  Actually less.

Later in the last cycle 1k CANDLES we a thing.

In this cycle we are looking to breech 20k this time.

Can you imagine 20k candles?

/\BTC x 10 bagger ===> 100k - 200k easy hodl gentlemen

Crazy prediction man.  Can you imagine the alt pump
With that much liquidity in crypto? 

Posted the appropriate link already: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55725190#msg55725190

[JSRAW]

Look at the bright side, at least no injuries were reported.

[explorer]

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

It is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

  How much do hodlers hold?  how much will they redistribute?  In 2013 Plans to bank/fund/invest $xx000000 seemed prudent.  Now, every day going forward reduces the $assets I want to hold:  A very modest fund for living expenses, and whatever hard assets (personal real estate, working farms, profitable businesses etc) I want while exchange rate is favorable.  The world we live in is changing faster than most can see or grasp.  Hodling more, longer, is going to be more popular as we go, IMO. 

_______________________________________________________________________________ _______

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

What you don't know, is what they hold.  What some consider a life changing amount is mere dust to others.  Talk is cheap.

_______________________________________________________________________________ _____

It was just about this point in the last cycle that we were hoping to breech 1k again.  Just 4 years ago.  Actually less.

Later in the last cycle 1k CANDLES we a thing.

In this cycle we are looking to breech 20k this time.

Can you imagine 20k candles?

YES.


_______________________________________________________________________________ __________


 

Thanks, gembitz, I haven't seen the dancing banana.gif for a while 

[strawbs]

All this talk of the search for happiness, reminds me of the Buddhist concept of grasping being the source of unhappiness.

Happiness, if found, will always be temporary. You can buy the new car and you'll be happy for a while, until you then want the new boat, which itself will make you happy for a while, until you want the helicopter, then the airplane, ad infinitum. The search for permanent happiness will always be endless. Instead, Buddhism (well, some of its schools) would suggest that contentedness, rather than happiness, should be the goal.

Be content with what you have. Which doesn't mean that you shouldn't try to improve your situation and that of others, but that you should be content with whatever outcome arrives.

The whole "happiness" industry has just become so "Americanised" (or maybe "Californianised") to have simply become an industry of easily digested and poorly written books and websites. It's saddening, when there is potentially so much more to be learned here.

Ignoring the mention of God, I quite liked a passage in Obama's newly released "A Promised Land":

"The truth is, I've never been a big believer in destiny. I worry that it encourages resignation in the down-and-out and complacency among the powerful. I suspect that God's plan, whatever it is, works on a scale too large to admit our mortal tribulations; that in a single lifetime, accidents and happenstance determine more than we care to admit; and that the best we can do is to try to align ourselves with what we feel is right and construct some meaning out of our confusion, and with grace and nerve play at each moment the hand that we're dealt."

[cAPSLOCK]

Merited for the sadness.   But as they say... this too shall pass.

[Toxic2040]

Aricebo..damn shame about that.    


A new big one on the dark side of the Moon in a crater might be a good idea. Perhaps getting a telescope up above the plane of the ecliptic so we can look 'down' at our whole orbit around the Sun might not be a bad idea either.

[cAPSLOCK]

  How much do hodlers hold?  how much will they redistribute?  In 2013 Plans to bank/fund/invest $xx000000 seemed prudent.  Now, every day going forward reduces the $assets I want to hold:  A very modest fund for living expenses, and whatever hard assets (personal real estate, working farms, profitable businesses etc) I want while exchange rate is favorable.  The world we live in is changing faster than most can see or grasp.  Hodling more, longer, is going to be more popular as we go, IMO. 

I really only have one thought that gives me pause when I consider the idea that I just wait 'till I can simply live off my stack (morpheus.png).

Let's say corn goes to 300k, but I do not sell any because of the above.  It probably happens fairly quickly, and governments may be temporarily stunned.  But then they are looking for ways to get their piece of the pie and create laws that tax bitcoin more heavily, or claw some of it away.

In that scenario I would be disappointed that I had not sold at least a small nestegg's worth during the "governments are stunned" phase.

And if I DO do this, and governments do not try to do draconian measures, I would not be disappointed in hedging that bet a little.  So there is a good chance I do this, at whatever is my actual nestegg price.  Lol 300k.  Thing is I do not want to trade good money for bad.  But to trade good money for good land?  I could see that.

On the other hand the further we go the harder it will be for governments to do this.  Maybe?

[wxa7115]

snip

I guess my point is that sometimes it is nice to treat yourself, especially if you have already invested for a long time and also engaged in frugality for a long time and delayed gratification.

By the way, I do know some older people (for OPsec reasons) I won't mention relations who likely do not have a lot of years left in them, but they still live nearly as frugal as they did when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s.. and at some point, it seems that these more elderly people should be living it up a bit more.. just thinking out loud.. but sure, each person has to decide those spending, versus investing, versus consumption points versus frugality  for themselves, and sure I agree that sometimes it can feel pretty good to get a value meal.. or to save $10 by eating a round steak rather than a T-bone.. but sometimes it is also better to live it up a bit on some luxury goods, whether we are talking about hookers, lambos and blow or some other luxury goods.

And that is correct, you will see that I am against both extremes, blowing up your money as soon as you got it in stuff you do not need or want is simply a mistake, but medium maximization, or to put it in other words, confusing the means with the end and focusing in making money for money’s sake instead of focusing in what you can do with that money to improve your life is a mistake too.

We need to find something in the middle of that, in short we need to find some sort of Goldilocks principle in our lives that allows us to reach happiness and at the same time to have enough wealth without having to go through both of those extremes.

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClrBvARdKX8

Anyone remember this Legend ?

Only TV Person i shed a tear for ever...

R.I.P John Schnabel

[Biodom]

An alternative scenario for bitcoin moves (contrarian, low probability):

1. Really big money (PTB) wants a discount on bitcoin. PTJ bought at 4-5K and they would like to do it too.
2. They "manufacture" a downtrend back to 4-5K (using FUD, policy changes, etc.).
3. After they truly load up (taking btc from the retail and long hodlers who cannot take it anymore), the sharp uptrend resumes to the expected highs (100K-500K).
4. Between now and the summer of 2021 would be a time to do it if they care to do it at all.

Historical perspective: something like this happened on the US stock market with a double hump of 2000 and 2007-2008, then double dip in 2001-2003 and 2007-2009, respectively.
Probability: 10-20%, but if it happens, Bob would look like a genius 

[sirazimuth]

....

touching.
But wtf does that have to do with the price of eggs in Czechoslovakia?

[Toxic2040]

evening charts


#dyor


1h


4h


D

#stronghands

[dragonvslinux]

For all the WO bulls out there, those wearing the silly caps and posting almost exclusively in one thread, here are my current concerns.

After a month of price being overbought, we have now confirmed a rejection from returning to overbought levels. While price remains in bullish territory, a break below 55 could see a re-test of bearish price strength:

I'm not bearish yet, the $17.9K support level still needs to be broken by the bears with confidence and follow through. There's a good chance we bounce from the 21 Day MA again (blue line, bull trend moving average) like we did a few days ago, creating a textbook bullish higher low. But if we don't, and we end up back at $16K, it's not going to be pretty.

I'm still 95% in. Ironically the 3.5% I sold at $18K from the previous break-down I now no longer need due to a tax based administrative error  

It does mean that capital is now back in the order books trying to pick up a wick on a low liquidity exchange pair

It's soon time for strong hands. If you need to sell a % or two to make you feel better about a correction that could go as deep as 25-35% ($13-15K), now is the time to think about it.

[eXPHorizon]

....

touching.
But wtf does that have to do with the price of eggs in Czechoslovakia?

John was one of the driving forces in my life.. Maybe if i did not watch Gold Rush i would not taken the course/values in my life the way i did..

[Biodom]

  How much do hodlers hold?  how much will they redistribute?  In 2013 Plans to bank/fund/invest $xx000000 seemed prudent.  Now, every day going forward reduces the $assets I want to hold:  A very modest fund for living expenses, and whatever hard assets (personal real estate, working farms, profitable businesses etc) I want while exchange rate is favorable.  The world we live in is changing faster than most can see or grasp.  Hodling more, longer, is going to be more popular as we go, IMO.  

I really only have one thought that gives me pause when I consider the idea that I just wait 'till I can simply live off my stack (morpheus.png).

Let's say corn goes to 300k, but I do not sell any because of the above.  It probably happens fairly quickly, and governments may be temporarily stunned.  But then they are looking for ways to get their piece of the pie and create laws that tax bitcoin more heavily, or claw some of it away.

In that scenario I would be disappointed that I had not sold at least a small nestegg's worth during the "governments are stunned" phase.

And if I DO do this, and governments do not try to do draconian measures, I would not be disappointed in hedging that bet a little.  So there is a good chance I do this, at whatever is my actual nestegg price.  Lol 300k.  Thing is I do not want to trade good money for bad.  But to trade good money for good land?  I could see that.

On the other hand the further we go the harder it will be for governments to do this.  Maybe?

The question is: at what price they would be "stunned"?
I think that it depends on "how fast".
They were a bit "stunned" in 2017 when the price was going up fast and overall crypto space was starting to approach 1tril (well, 800 bil).
I remember Malamed of CME essentially promising to "reign it in".
They were not really stunned by gold going from 1.5-2 tril to 10 tril in a decade or so (2001-2011), but started to get "annoyed", so gold went down for 7-8 years while large tech stocks prospered.

Bitcoin going up 100%, even a bit more in a year would not cause the "being stunned" effect, but going to 300K in 2021 almost certainly would (at least to a degree).
My major complaint is that we never had nice long flat distributory tops where you can think a bit about selling or not selling.
It is always wham, bam, thank you ma'm!

[yefi]

In my experience when you do something solely to make someone else happy it makes you unhappy and bitter.  It can destroy that relationship and result in a bad situation for both people.  You resent that person for making you feel like you had to sacrifice your choice or happiness to help them obtain theirs or their perception of you.  It usually backfires and creates a worse situation.  

For example... a father pressures his son to following in his family's footsteps as a doctor when what the son really wants to do is be a software developer.  The son begins down the path of schooling and requirements to become the doctor his father always wanted him to be.  One day the son realizes he is truly unhappy in this career and choses to follow his passion of software development.  He drops out of school and his father is angry at him for the wasted time, money, and for not achieving the "ideal career path".  The son resents his father for the same reasons as well as himself for never following his own passion.

Sometimes you just have to be you and stand up for yourself.  Being "selfish" is often looked at as a negative term... let's refer to it as self-love then.

Doing something to make someone else happy because it also makes you happy is a different thing...

I catch your drift now. Making others happy can either come from a place of weakness or from a place of strength. Make it always from a place of strength.

[lightfoot]

*sigh* Sic transit Gloria Mundi.

[Biodom]

kind of funny...

Satoshi's heavy bag:

https://twitter.com/blockfolio/status/1333758210436714498

in the other news:

the scent of hopium is getting stronger by the day:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/this-metric-suggests-bitcoin-price-can-go-as-high-as-590k-this-bull-run

[Toxic2040]

For all the WO bulls out there, those wearing the silly caps and posting almost exclusively in one thread, here are my current concerns.

Noted.




All I can say is if we do get a massive handle to buy the dip with everything you have. I am of the mind things might be different..a lot of things went right for bitcoin this year. I believe it is going through another order of magnitude adjustment in its adoption phase and this, the halving and the pandemic have all place unique pressure on an already volatile market. Scarcity and the need for a secure portable store of wealth has met demand head on and the results are showing in recent price discovery.

It's soon time for strong hands.

Yes.

[jojo69]