Yes... perhaps you do not NOT know nuttin.
But still... something seems to be off by your perspective, including if you thought that there were boring periods in BTC's life.
I don't really know about 2011 through personal experience, but I was watching the bitcoin space since late 2013, and surely, I found it quite interesting, even between late 2013 and 2016.. I mean if you really think about bitcoin, it is a paradigm shifting invention.. that is quite amazing every 10 minutes that it pumps out another block, and ongoingly there have been new businesses coming and going in bitcoin and some of them successfully evolving, too.. so I am having some difficulties relating to your finding bitcoin to be boring perspective.
Certainly it is an interesting technological invention, potentially capable of replacing gold (at least partially) as reserve and investment.
Ok. Fair enough. You might be coming around to recognizing some of bitcoin's use case.. but you do not necessarily see bitcoin as being superior to gold - which it likely is... but hey, that seems to be a difference of degree rather than kind. So reasonable peeps could differ in their perspective.
One of the advantages that you have, that regular normies do not have is that you have already recognized bitcoin for several years, so you probably have decent ideas about how to put 1% to 10% of your portfolio into bitcoin and you do not even have to believe in bitcoin at all in order to take such measures to hedge.
Normies likely have no fucking clue what bitcoin is, and if they do they have not figured out how to get some reasonable stake in the ballpark of 1% to 10%... so you are way the hell ahead of normies, even if you seem to have a overly bearish and seemingly unreasonable perspective (even after being informed of bitcoin).. but hey, that's your choice, in the end... I give little shits about if you invest in bitcoin at all, even if it is quite likely in your best interest to do so.
A bit too late, although.
You mean that bitcoin has already had its run up? That's why it is "too late"?
Gawd!!!! my eyes are almost rolling out of the back of my head, if you really believe that's where bitcoin is at in its life or its current price cycle or however you might currently characterize where we are at, at this point in time.
Until 2017 I thought it would remain an insignificant curiosity, but since then I am sure it is going to stay for decades. But, it does not mean that bitcoin can make another 10x increase.
Well, I am glad that you came around, somewhat.
There were quite a few convincing occurances in 2017 that provided a lot of evidence for the bull case for bitcoin - even if they might not have been 100%... but hardly anything is 100% when we are attempting to figure out things that might happen in the future (death and taxes come to mind).
Regarding the "no more 10xs" what are we using as our reference point? Current price in order to attempt to advantage you in your prognosis?
I personally like to attempt to figure out our jumping off points.., which likely would be around $4k in this cycle... but whatever, I understand that there may well be various reasonable ways to calculate where bitcoin might be going, including price tops.. if you attempt to project the next price top, then it could be relevant to go from the previous price top.
I just do not believe those price tops to be good reference points unless you are trying to tell some kind of nonsense story (spin the matter) about the erratic nature of bitcoin, and if you want to consider bitcoin as erratic and send that message, then you are likely doing a disservice to both yourself and to your intended audience.
Getting off my "tops" soap box, I still believe that even if we reference $20k as our BTC price starting point, it remains quite reasonable that BTC may well have a few more 10x increases from this price point, it can just be a question of time regarding how long that it takes for several 10x increase to actually play out.. but it still seems a bit crazy to be basing your own investment choices upon whether or not such 10x price increases are going to actually happen.
Investors should not need anything near 10x price increases in order to profit stupendously from bitcoin relative to other possible investment choices.
So sure, maybe you end up being correct, and bitcoin never reaches $200k, ever.. but so fucking what? For any particular person attempting to decide what to do with his/her own finances or finances that s/he has under his/her control is to figure out what to do from here. Seems like buying in remains a prudent approach, especially if starting from a position of NOT having BTC. Now, on the other hand, if such person already has BTC then there is going to be variations on the questions regarding whether s/he has enough or should buy more or should shave some BTC off of the holdings along the way UPpity (or wherever this pig might be going from here).
Part of my point is not just $20k by itself, but how the BTC price got to nearly $20k from around $10k in early September.
BTC prices pretty much doubled and broke through at least three resistance points in the $12,500 arena, $13,880 and $17,250, and you seem to want to focus upon the fact that it did not quite make it above some kind of symbolic (or maybe self-selected point) of $20k, when it just got into the region in the past week or so? You are either disingenuous or a troll to be focusing on such nonsense and trying to make some kind of supposedly meaningful bearish point out of it.
Breaking through anything below $20k is nothing new, we have seen it before.
We are not merely talking about breaking above $20k, you diptwat.
Have you seen the latest postings
in this weighted average price thread?
We have hoverings in the top of the BTC weighted average price for the past few months, and the past week there has been a lot of towards the top, including the actual top yesterday.
Furthermore there is market cap, and of course, lots of coins coming off of exchanges.. causing a shortage of coins.
Anyhow, ongoing bullish dynamics in the short term... even though you consider it "no big deal" which probably goes back to either you did not buy enough BTC or you sold way too many BTC too soon because you have been failing and refusing to appreciate and recognize the bullish case for bitcoin, which seems to be unravelling right in front of our eyes whether you want to acknowledge it or not.. or continue to poo poo it, and hope that maybe you might be correct in your ongoing lack of appreciation of what are likely both BTC fundamentals and capturings within the various BTC price prediction models (Stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects).
It is somewhat amusing that here "bearish" means "not expecting huge increase".
You can call it whatever you like... and be amused however you like.
I am bullish in the long run,
Good for you. Hopefully, you did not sell too many too soon or fail/refuse to stock up enough.
the difference is that in my case "bullish" may mean average price doubling every four years (shorter term fluctuations are definitely going to be stronger).
In terms of my own personal investment into BTC, I don't even expect that great of a rise... I have only recently increased from 6% per year average to 10% per year average, but that still does not mean that I try to downplay the facts and logic of the ongoing UPside happenings and upside potential that seem to be following the most current BTC price prediction models quite closely - (almost like a fit glove.. whoaza!!! and maybe even better than a fit glove - double whoazza!!!).
Regarding your hypothesizing of how short term fluctuations are going to get stronger, you seem to be largely talking out of your ass.
Of course, there are going to be great price battles in BTC from time to time, and BIGGER players are going to be chiming into such likely battles, but that does not necessarily result in greater movements in the BTC price - when we are talking about percentages rather than dollar values. Of course, when the dollar values increase then the dollar value movements increase, but price movements still are likely going to become less volatile with greater market cap rather than the opposite.. so you are actually speaking against logic... which should not surprise me.. you are arguing a lot of illogical matters with your ongoing self-serving selections of which facts that you would like to emphasize in making your ongoing quasi-nonsensical arguments.
Yes.. even you are admitting that the possibility is slight.
And, we should acknowledge that anything is possible, but I don't arrange my financial life around the slight possibilities.. I arrange my life around more likely possibilities..
Hopefully, you are doing the same.. though you seem to be having trouble recognizing where we are at, exactly... in regards to bitcoinlandia.. and appreciating where we are at.. and perhaps your lack of appreciation has to do with your failure/refusal to either stack enough coins or selling too many coins too soon.
I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.
Good for you. Attempting to appear that you are being realistic... but still it seems likely that you are underinvested... otherwise why would you be spouting out such ongoing nonsense. Something does not quite add up here, Alex.
Bitcoin does not need widespread institutional adoption to go above $50k.. but widespread institutional adoption may well bring BTC prices above $1million by the end of 2025-ish... 2024 is 4 years from now.. you should be looking at the end of 2021 and the end of 2025.. don't you know nuttin?
There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.
You are making little to no sense here with your attempting to site satoshi in such a way that supports a theory that BTC price rises are going to be ongoingly stable or have limitations in their upside because mining costs are going to be drawing the BTC price back down to their costs (using current costs as your hypothetical gravitational point).
What fucking nonsense, Alex!! Can you even appreciate the nonsense in your own proclamations or if you actually believe such bullshit that you seem to be espousing?
The satoshi post that you cite is from February 2010. For the most part, BTC did not even have a price then, and sure, BTC started to develop a bit of a price in mid 2010, but probably BTC's price market was very immature for a few years after that satoshi post so even if we start with 2012 prices as a kind of starting off point for BTC prices, they have gone up thousands of times from 2012 to present, and has the cost of mining held BTC prices back? fuck no.
Sure there is some back and forth dynamics and questioning does price direct mining costs are do mining cost directing price, and these are back and forth dynamics and ONLY part of the formula for where BTC prices are or where BTC prices might go. The mining will adapt. If the BTC prices are higher, then miners are going to come in, and if they are lower, miners are going to leave, so you are hardly proving any point by trying to suggest that mining costs might limit where the BTC price might go.. because both BTC price and mining costs are moving dynamics and they both vary and depend based on a whole hell of a lot of factors (including but not limited to be related to each other, too).
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