Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

[DaRude]

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.

Just waiting for the day 

Or, as history shows, will see a lot of Nimitz class aircraft carriers suddenly moving in its direction. But first one needs to take one for the team, then critical mass will follow, but we're few years from that

[Biodom]

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.

Just waiting for the day  

Or, as history shows, will see a lot of Nimitz class aircraft carriers suddenly moving in its direction. But first one needs to take one for the team, then critical mass will follow, but we're few years from that

I seriously doubt it if China, Russia or EU do it.
Then again, if it is a country which starts with "I" and ends with "n" or another cough-NK-cough, then, sure, it's quite possible.

[Wilhelm]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

Everyone else
$3 a slice

[Gyrsur]

the bottom is in. where is Bob buying into the dip with fresh printed dollars from his basement?  

[Biodom]

the bottom is in. where is Bob buying into the dip with fresh printed dollars from his basement?  

Not exactly liking this seemingly abortive ant-like extension (to 61.7) of the prior high (58.2), but, whatever, maybe it's just some churn.
Thinking about which nifty to buy,  
Last time I checked, there are some pixels available for sale.

Unrelated: when we are going to have 3080ies available for a decent price? WTF?
It's good for those who want to peddle 1080ti on ebay, but I don't have any to spare, lol.

[El duderino_]

Boblawblaw, that you & Rick on the ranch?




@bitcoin_sun

I have seen the light! @CountBitcoin

https://twitter.com/bitcoin_sun/status/1371499573592612864?s=21


#tainttanning
#definitelyhomo

One of the two at least should be black, if we can follow #blackHomo ....

So would be difficult   

[proudhon]

the bottom is in. where is Bob buying into the dip with fresh printed dollars from his basement?  

Hopefully this analysis will save somebody from the ruin of failed bitcoin. Good luck.

[Gyrsur]

the bottom is in. where is Bob buying into the dip with fresh printed dollars from his basement?  

Not exactly liking this seemingly abortive ant-like extension (to 61.7) of the prior high (58.2), but, whatever, maybe it's just some churn.
Thinking about which nifty to buy,  
Last time I checked, there are some pixels available for sale.
When we are going to have 3080ies available for a decent price? WTF?
It's good for those who want to peddle 1080ti on ebay, but I don't have any to spare, lol.

Fibo retracement fits also very well (38.2%). we will see.




EDIT: HAHA, the lonely super rich King proudhon above!

[JayJuanGee]

Because some of us are still used to 2017 pump levels. I made that mistake, too.
But JJG got me straight again  

What are "we" saying now then?

Are we in like mid-2017 ish price levels, where we might have a decently large pullback before continuing up in a kind of blow-off top?

Or might we end up in more of a kind of 2013 double top performance where we might be somewhere in the first price bubble (whether it has peaked or not might be another question), and then our pullback would be longer than the one(s) that happened after August 2017.

I keep getting the sense that the top of this particular bubble could end up dragging into 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of 2022.. but surely there is a whole hell of a time between now and then, so it is difficult to suggest how this bubble could get there - so maybe in the end, those folks who have been more reliant on the four year fractal for providing their guidance end up being correct and we just get another cycle that ends up playing itself out in the last quarter of 2021.. I still don't know how that happens either and could reasonably result in tops that range anywhere in the $150k territory to even up to $1.5 million.. and yeah no one finds this helpful to have such a broad range and the higher end of the range does come off as a bit over-the-top in terms of probabilities, especially to be able to reach it by the end of the year (which then causes me to consider that if the top ends up being even close to that $1.5million high for this cycle, then it just seems more reasonable that the cycle could take a wee bit longer to play out).

Surely, difficult to speak with any kind of confidence without coming off as a wee bit of a kook.. but at the same time, I have hardly any sense of financial expectations that any of the UPpity BTC price performances need to play out to make me feel MOAR better financially.. even though psychologically there could be some good feelings in regards to pointing at the no coiners who had continued to fail/refuse to take any kinds of meaningful actions to acquire some corns in case they catch on.. and BTC prices going up to the upper end of the range - even $500k to $1.5k would surely be quite validating (just in case some of us don't already feel validated enough.. .I was even feeling pretty validated in the $10k to $20k range.. so, there is that angle, too)

Why do you think that you know anything about my situation?
It all a bunch of baby-talk gobbledygook.
You try to read too much into people and it is misfiring 100%, at least in my case.

I wish I could manifest my wallet.dat into the form a bludgeoning device, and just go to town on JJG.

Showing me or the thread (hate to presume too much about the we) for that matter your wallet is not going to work to establish some kind of bludgeoning effect you insecure deranged fuck.

Do you believe anyone gives any ratt's asses about the size of your dick (I mean wallet?).  

It hardly matters in regards to talking about subjects on this thread, and the hypothetical that I outlined in my earlier showed a range of BTC holdings between 10 coins and 600 coins, and if you happen to have 6,000 coins or more you could either be plugged into the hypothetical, which of course, such size of wallet may well justify some other strategies.. including some of the dumbass practices that your whining ass has been following that include selling a chunk of your BTC at $16k and buying other chunks all the way up between $25k and $55k.. but whatever..

I am not even saying that you are wrong when you might have even more excessive number of coins than the more excessive of the coins that I had outlined in my hypothetical (600), and largely, if you were to show a wallet larger than 600BTC you would be making my point rather than rebutting my point.

Both you, BAAAAWWWB, and biodom smiosnom, have recently made the dumbass suggestion that I might gain more credibility if I were to show some real world proofs regarding the size of my dick (I mean wallet), and surely it continues to be difficult to get some people to move away from these kinds of bullshit, largely irrelevant and frequently counter-productive kinds of thinking.  I could give some more examples of such, but I am going to hold back for now... (removed explicative... hahahahaha - cause I am feeling nice,   ... #nohomo)

Holy crap, and I thought I had a bad meltdown a while back over "Fight Club"...

Yes.. exactly.. .... better to try to control ur lil selfie.. rather than having meltdowns over stupid shit.   

[Biodom]

Semi-serious proposal:

Hat master (or someone else) should make a collage of WO hats, arranged in artistic manner (maybe this could be decided from several options) and post it on some NFT platform for some ridiculous $ price (no less than $100K starting, maybe more), which will be probably matched when btc hits 100K or 250K or 1000K. Time is on our side.
Some credit should also go to three other notable contributors:
1. The one who first arranged hats in a linear (square) fashion (I am so sorry, I can't remember who it was and no time to check multiple pages back)
2. The one who arranged them all on a train-that was funny.
3. the hats as a meme suggester.

75% to the hat master, 10%-linear arrangement and compilation dude, 5% to the train idea dude, 5% to whoever first started talking about hats as a meme (was it el_duderino?), 5% to the WO 100K party fund (or 500K fund).
Numbers could be debated:
0-5% to me for the idea to make a nft out of it....jk
 

[Sayeds56]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $56,140

Correction in action.

[JayJuanGee]

Need to finish this week over 70k or I'll probably have to give up my silly dream of home ownership. It's annoying because I have to move out of my apartment either way at the end of May and would rather not move twice but I guess it's not in the cards.

Oh gawd!!!!!  

funny (or do I mean strange?) how some peeps who had supposedly been into bitcoin for a while (of course shitcoins too) have figure out how to take the more complicated paths in life that cause them to become poor or to stay poor even in a bitcoin bull market that could have easily-peasily brought them 5x to 6x returns with pretty damned straight forward HODLing strategies in the past 6 months-ish.

In case you have wondered what a weak-hand's face looks like, while seeing a 5% dip:



It requires the highest level stupidity to make a loss on the eve of one of the most memorable bull runs in Bitcoin history. HFSP

hahahahaha... Ivomm already said it.. earlier.  

LOL the jokes write themselves

https://twitter.com/michaelmiraflor/status/1371424970593562631

NFTs getting hacked and stolen

Who would'uve thunk?  There might be some scams related to NFTs.

Go figure.  

[El duderino_]

Semi-serious proposal:

Hat master (or someone else) should make a collage of WO hats, arranged in artistic manner (maybe this could be decided from several options) and post it on some NFT platform for some ridiculous $ price (no less than $100K starting, maybe more), which will be probably matched when btc hits 100K or 250K or 1000K. Time is on our side.
Some credit should also go to three other notable contributors:
1. The one who first arranged hats in a linear (square) fashion (I am so sorry, I can't remember who it was and no time to check multiple pages back)
2. The one who arranged them all on a train-that was funny.
3. the hats as a meme suggester.

75% to the hat master, 10%-linear arrangement and compilation dude, 5% to the train idea dude, 5% to whoever first started talking about hats as a meme (was it el_duderino?), 5% to the WO 100K party fund (or 500K fund).
Numbers could be debated:
0-5% to me for the idea to make a nft out of it....jk
 

Actually some kind of NFT hat artworks could be a cool project ....

[DaRude]

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.

Just waiting for the day  

Or, as history shows, will see a lot of Nimitz class aircraft carriers suddenly moving in its direction. But first one needs to take one for the team, then critical mass will follow, but we're few years from that

I seriously doubt it if China, Russia or EU do it.
Then again, if it is a country which starts with "I" and ends with "n" or another cough-NK-cough, then, sure, it's quite possible.

EU has the brrrrr printer, China is oppressing its citizens and fighting the capital outflow, Russia has the most to gain but anything that can be perceived as challenging current status quo would be fought against, so don't see any of them willingly accepting BTC anytime soon. It has to start with a small nation dipping their toe in first, floods always start with a drip first

[Icygreen]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

Just take a look at the book from any exchange. On the one side are people who think Bitcoin is overvalued and want to buy it for less than the current market price, on the other are people who think Bitcoin is undervalued and want to sell it for more than the market price.

So the real question is what is the value to *you*? No one else can answer that for you (though many will attempt to try).

I'd think the phycological .01=$1000 or 100k price might stick for a moment.

[cAPSLOCK]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

I tend to look at various (long term) indicators which may give guidance on this point.

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/#:~:text=MVRV%20is%20simply%20the%20ratio,spotting%20market%20tops%20and%20bottoms.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-price/
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-vwap-ratio/
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/

The Mayer Multiple is also a good one.

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mayer-multiple/
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/

But in the end it's also about your own gut feeling. A simple rule could be: when in ultra bull market phase, think about selling some if price doubles again within 3 weeks.

No worries, were not in 'ultra bull market phase' yet.

Great charts... But fuck Trace Mayer.

Sorry... and it is obviously well known here that I am not exactly a "Saif Maxi".  But there is a big difference between thinking there might be one or two interesting crypto assets in the unicorn land (I think 1) and shilling a premined shitcoin with slips of paper at a bitcoin conference by using your reputation.

I just want to continue to make sure that reputation remains ruined.

That said, the  "200MA Multiple" is certainly a useful metric.

Fuck Trace.

[JayJuanGee]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

As a mostly layman when it comes to maths (and sciences) funzies, could it be that one of the goals of continuing to attempt to calculate pi to further digits is to see if there might be a zero in there somewhere (I mean a last digit)? - and then we know how many actual digits pi has, rather than what seems to be an infinite number of digits without a last digit.  

$55,770!
Who is selling !!! 😂

Can't be down if you never had anything to sell

That's true.. there are quite a few peeps in the world who think like that in regards to bitcoin.. they are kind of in a state of detachment..

0-5% to me for the idea to make a nft out of it....

Actually 0% sounds good in regards to this part of your proposal.

 


 

Semi-serious proposal:

Hat master (or someone else) should make a collage of WO hats, arranged in artistic manner (maybe this could be decided from several options) and post it on some NFT platform for some ridiculous $ price (no less than $100K starting, maybe more), which will be probably matched when btc hits 100K or 250K or 1000K. Time is on our side.
Some credit should also go to three other notable contributors:
1. The one who first arranged hats in a linear (square) fashion (I am so sorry, I can't remember who it was and no time to check multiple pages back)
2. The one who arranged them all on a train-that was funny.
3. the hats as a meme suggester.

75% to the hat master, 10%-linear arrangement and compilation dude, 5% to the train idea dude, 5% to whoever first started talking about hats as a meme (was it el_duderino?), 5% to the WO 100K party fund (or 500K fund).
Numbers could be debated:
0-5% to me for the idea to make a nft out of it....jk
 

Actually some kind of NFT hat artworks could be a cool project ....

Hopefully in another thread if it degenerates into a money-making NFT scammening scheme..

From my humble bumble opinion: ain't nobody got time for dat shit in this here thread..

That said, the  "200MA Multiple" is certainly a useful metric.

But how do you feel about the whole thing?   

Inquiring minds want to know how you feel.

 

[Hueristic]

LOL the jokes write themselves

https://twitter.com/michaelmiraflor/status/1371424970593562631

NFTs getting hacked and stolen

Probable false flag for TPTB to create laws on immutability.

[OutOfMemory]

Because some of us are still used to 2017 pump levels. I made that mistake, too.
But JJG got me straight again  

What are "we" saying now then?

Are we in like mid-2017 ish price levels, where we might have a decently large pullback before continuing up in a kind of blow-off top?

Or might we end up in more of a kind of 2013 double top performance where we might be somewhere in the first price bubble (whether it has peaked or not might be another question), and then our pullback would be longer than the one(s) that happened after August 2017.

I keep getting the sense that the top of this particular bubble could end up dragging into 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of 2022.. but surely there is a whole hell of a time between now and then, so it is difficult to suggest how this bubble could get there - so maybe in the end, those folks who have been more reliant on the four year fractal for providing their guidance end up being correct and we just get another cycle that ends up playing itself out in the last quarter of 2021.. I still don't know how that happens either and could reasonably result in tops that range anywhere in the $150k territory to even up to $1.5 million.. and yeah no one finds this helpful to have such a broad range and the higher end of the range does come off as a bit over-the-top in terms of probabilities, especially to be able to reach it by the end of the year (which then causes me to consider that if the top ends up being even close to that $1.5million high for this cycle, then it just seems more reasonable that the cycle could take a wee bit longer to play out).

Surely, difficult to speak with any kind of confidence without coming off as a wee bit of a kook.. but at the same time, I have hardly any sense of financial expectations that any of the UPpity BTC price performances need to play out to make me feel MOAR better financially.. even though psychologically there could be some good feelings in regards to pointing at the no coiners who had continued to fail/refuse to take any kinds of meaningful actions to acquire some corns in case they catch on.. and BTC prices going up to the upper end of the range - even $500k to $1.5k would surely be quite validating (just in case some of us don't already feel validated enough.. .I was even feeling pretty validated in the $10k to $20k range.. so, there is that angle, too)

Alright, but "we" learned that BTC historic chart moves/prices can't simply be mapped onto the future.
While a $1k dump/pump thrilled the shit out of me in 2017, it's just a "meh" occurrence nowadays, but relatively speaking, a -$1k move in Q1 of 2017 would be like about a -$5k move in the todays. If expressed in percent, the same price movements would "feel" bigger in absolute values, maybe you remember our little discussion about this, some weeks or months ago.
Even relatively spoken, $500k is plausible, because it would be under 900% move up from current price, which we "know" BTC does like to do, post halvening.
That is what we used to know. With the s-curve hypothesis, the nearing liquidity crisis and big institutional money flowing in for the long haul, it is clearly possible that there will be no -80% two year lasting bear market in the next years. As the time goes on, your mappings of a peak in Q1/2 2022 could even turn into a plateau, followed by further plateaus, gradually decreasing by height and increasing in duration, what would result in said s-curve.
I like the idea, and i would be happy to observe this, and it's not only unrealistic to happen, because we didn't have it yet. Honey badger will surprise (most of) us, and hopefully not in proudhon's favour. The end of cycles as we know them, followed by "steps".
I realized i have to look back to 2017 like early adopters looked back at 2013 in 2017, but there's still no right way to look forward.

EDIT: Just checked the price ($56.6xx) and like that i'm "in the money" while i bought a bit too high today. I could also have waited for that second dip, what seems quite a regular thing following significant dumps, lately. IDC. I got more sats, that's all that counts. May i quote nullly:

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?