Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so (it could happen quicker in a case of large buys).

maybe this...check out etc on coinbase pro...$30-50 higher (30-40%) than others, lol.
if i was not busy right now, I would arb it to smithereens.

They probably have to buy expensive coins from miners.
Or even coin auctions, let that sink in...

[Biodom]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

[shahzadafzal]

Just sold a teeny weeny little bit, so now the price is pretty sure to go up.
Also, it's going to rain all day today and all day tomorrow, Jippie.

Told you so, didn't I.

Stop selling.
No, actually do sell.

Wait, what?   

"That's one small hodl for man, one giant leap for lambo."

[Arriemoller]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

Scarcity means higher price, higher price means more people are willing to sell their bitcoins, more bitcoins flow to the exchanges, new price level established, and so on. It's rather basic economics really.

[ivomm]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

Well, this is a deep question! It is related to the liquidity in terms of bitcoins. And the liquidity is related to the role of derivate exchanges and SEC decision about an ETF. In the past the US exchanges had not a good liquidity in both ways - fiat and bitcoins. Because of that, we've seen many exponential pumps like the 66% increase in 2 days in Dec 2017. And after that the opposite - 70% crash, which started a one year bear period. Now, things are much different - there is a good liquidity in terms of fiat. Elon's "test" is a rock solid proof for that. This prevents any crash bigger than 30% to happen. On the other hand, the liquidity in terms of bitcoins is bad and the trend of exchange reserve will make it much worse (which is good for the hodlers of course).

But as we have seen some charts recently showing the negative role of the derivate, options, etc., there are some entities probably in USA which specialize in making profits by shorting. Just like those institutions involved in gamestop stocks shorting. They are the real threat to the price and always put traps hoping for the price to stay endlessly in some narrow range. However "their bills are made without the bartender", as we have a saying in our country. Because of the low liquidity in terms of bitcoins, the price shoots up unexpectedly at some point, liquidating all these shorts. This is the hidden reason, why SEC is against an ETF. At anytime an exponential increase of the price can happen, leaving shorting companies helpless. And they don't have friends to give them bitcoins, nor they can make a call to the chief of bitcoin and say: hey, liqudate all longs and bring us more bitcoins, like those VIP institutions did with the robinhood puppet.

But let's return on the question. My observations using Glassnode is that since the peak of exchange reserve 3.03mil bitcoins on 17 March 2020, the trend is almost as a line downwards to 2.15mil bitcoins currently. This makes 29% decrease for 13.5 months, paired with a 6-7x increase of the median price. If the trend continues, in 2 years there will be almost no bitcoins on the exchanges with a 50x increase of the price. This is just extrapolating of course. In reality derivate exchanges will put multiple traps, but bitcoin will evade them much sooner than the wall street pundits believe. So, good times are coming, that's for sure.

[Biodom]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

Scarcity means higher price, higher price means more people are willing to sell their bitcoins, more bitcoins flow to the exchanges, new price level established, and so on. It's rather basic economics really.

actually, NO.....read upon Veblen goods.
Btc is a clear Veblen good...and it is declining on exchanges as i posted (since Jan 2020) all the way from $8K to today's 57.5K in price.
I guess, it is economics 201 and not basic  

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Just sold a teeny weeny little bit, so now the price is pretty sure to go up.
Also, it's going to rain all day today and all day tomorrow, Jippie.

Told you so, didn't I.

Sell enough for a pizza and  a pitcher of beer. We will go over 65k

[El duderino_]

[Biodom]

yep (to @El duderino_)...

anecdotally...people at work started to tell me how well they are doing in "crypto"...they bought in March-May.
One conclusion I make from this is that Coinbase (also robinhood and paypal) would have monster earnings this Q (if trend is at least stable).
Therefore, COIN might be a bargain here (i thought that i would never say this)...buying slowly in ret accounts.

OT: Aiming in part to protect the stock market from retiring stock selling boomers, Congress is about to pass the Secure 2 act...you will not have to take mandatory distributions from IRA/401K (in US) until either 75 y.o. or never (if you have less than $100K). They intend for you to pass it to your descendants and then they will tax the s-t out of them because they have to dispose of all money received from mom/dad IRA in just 10 years. A pretty cunning plan, actually.

[BitcoinBunny]

yep (to @El duderino_)...

anecdotally...people at work started to tell me how well they are doing in "crypto"...they bought in March-May.
One conclusion i make make from this is that Coinbase (also robinhood and paypal) would have monster earnings this Q (if trend is at least stable).
Therefore, COIN might be a bargain here (i thought that i would never say this)...buying slowly in ret accounts.

OT: Aiming in part to protect the stock market from retiring stock selling boomers, Congress is about to pass the Secure 2 act...you will not have to take mandatory distributions from IRA/401K (in US) until either 75 y.o. or never (if you have less than $100K). They intend for you to pass it to your descendants and then they will tax the s-t out of them because they have to dispose of all money received from mom/dad IRA in just 10 years. A pretty cunning plan, actually.

Well that's what they supposedly voted for in the USA: communism.
If you are born with a silver spoon or get one by being smart, then grandmaster supreme paramount leader Joe Biden and Cunt Harris will take it away. Only it will not be taken away from their own druggie kids of course. Because they are better than you and your children because they have international business deals. All accomplished by themselves.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1389907830744883209?s=20

 

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[BTCaesar]

btc is flying  

Sideways flying 

[Biodom]

btc is flying  

Sideways flying  

I can dig sideways, it is down that i particularly dislike.

OT: re doge (historical dog-deities.. I or anybody else don't imply that they are an actual g-d at all, just some cultural artifacts):
https://www.dogster.com/lifestyle/dog-gods
Who or what are the mystery people behind doge (5 wallets control 40% of supply)?
I am getting curious. If they are scammers, then they will dump en masse on coinbase addition because this is when the liquidity will be at it's peak.
If they don't dump, it would be interesting.

[Sayeds56]

“There are three certainties in life, death, taxes and 21 million Bitcoins and you must make sure you hold as much of it as possible.”
― Olawale Daniel

[Biodom]

bitcoin numbers...very succinct (the whole video is interesting, but I am posting the end with final numbers):

https://youtu.be/8j44WEhjshw?t=948

TLDV; 3.3btc to be in top 1% of the current holders, 0.03 btc to be in 1% of the whole planet earth population (not sure how he got it because not everyone owns it), 0.2745 btc possible per millionaire (if all want it).

[Richy_T]

What will happen to btc price once they (exchanges) run out? Someone calculated that projected time for that is 122 days or so

people always post this retort bs, but we all know that after summer comes fall, right?
it's not like suddenly, you get winter immediately after the summer, so some trends or patterns exist.

In any case, there is another rule (that is proven to be correct): the longer the trend persists, the more likely it would continue.
The trend of declining btc on exchanges is already continuing since Jan-Feb of 2020 and is only accelerating, so it is quite reasonable to expect eventual btc depletion (on exchanges), maybe not to zero, but to a sufficiently lower number to cause high volatility.

The point is that extrapolation becomes invalid as conditions change. As supplies decline, prices rise which causes more people to want to sell. Exchanges aren't going to "run out".

All the current trend indicates is that prices are probably too low. Which is a good sign for some up.

[d_eddie]

I just ordered a Binance card (ViSA debit). I've no idea how long it will take to deliver. Not interested in trying the electronic (virtual) substitute before receiving the actual one.

Only binance accounts can be used to top it up - no transfer from the exterior. This looks like a clear case of "not your keys". On the other hand though, the description says it converts to fiat only when spending. No maintenance fee, so I can check the exchange rate for fuckery and avoid using it altogether if I don't like what I see. Does anyone have experience with that and want to share?

[shahzadafzal]

I just ordered a Binance card (ViSA debit). I've no idea how long it will take to deliver. Not interested in trying the electronic (virtual) substitute before receiving the actual one.

Only binance accounts can be used to top it up - no transfer from the exterior. This looks like a clear case of "not your keys". On the other hand though, the description says it converts to fiat only when spending. No maintenance fee, so I can check the exchange rate for fuckery and avoid using it altogether if I don't like what I see. Does anyone have experience with that and want to share?

Wait a minute... did they ask for Satoshi's permission to print his name on the visa card for marketing?



https://www.binance.com/en/cards/