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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25465281 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
eddie13
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BTC or BUST


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April 19, 2021, 01:46:32 AM

When in doubt, zoom out.



Doesn’t look anything like a Bitcoin top..
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April 19, 2021, 01:54:41 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I was reading that the world has 46-47 million millionaires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire

To be a millionaire by the definition I found do not count your home you job or your pension.

Count your investable  wealth :

"There are multiple approaches to determining a person's status as a millionaire. One of the two most commonly used measurements is net worth, which counts the total value of all property owned by a household minus the household's debts. According to this definition, a household owning an $800k home, $50k of furnishings, two cars worth $60k, a $60k retirement savings account, $45k in mutual funds, and a $325k vacation home with a $250k mortgage, $40k in car loans, and $25k in credit card debt would be worth about $1,025,000; and every individual in this household would thus be a millionaire. However, according to the net financial assets measurement used for some specific applications (such as evaluating an investor's expected tolerance for risk for stockbroker ethics), equity in one's principal residence is excluded, as are lifestyle assets, such as the car and furniture. Therefore, the above example household would only have net financial assets of $115,000. Another term used is "net investable assets" or working capital. These practitioners may use the term "millionaire" to mean somebody who is free to invest a million units of currency through them as broker. For similar reasons, those who market goods, services and investments to HNWIs are careful to specify a net worth "not counting principal residence". At the end of 2011, there were around 5.1 million HNWIs in the United States,[9] while at the same time there were 11 million millionaires[10] in a total of 3.5 million millionaire households,[11] including those 5.1 million HNWIs"


So I am not there yet.

But if you have only 18 BTC = 1,026,000

My wife and I may get there 1 day.

Just stack your BTC. one day. 18 will not be needed only 9 coins will get you there. 9 x 115,000 = 1,035,000 That day is not far off.  Just stack the BTC and Hodl.
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1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k


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April 19, 2021, 01:55:14 AM

Recovery looking nice. Might put a little ketchup on the ramen tonight.
BitcoinBunny
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April 19, 2021, 02:00:58 AM

I was reading that the world has 46-47 million millionaires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire

To be a millionaire by the definition I found do not count your home you job or your pension.

Count your investable  wealth :

"There are multiple approaches to determining a person's status as a millionaire. One of the two most commonly used measurements is net worth, which counts the total value of all property owned by a household minus the household's debts. According to this definition, a household owning an $800k home, $50k of furnishings, two cars worth $60k, a $60k retirement savings account, $45k in mutual funds, and a $325k vacation home with a $250k mortgage, $40k in car loans, and $25k in credit card debt would be worth about $1,025,000; and every individual in this household would thus be a millionaire. However, according to the net financial assets measurement used for some specific applications (such as evaluating an investor's expected tolerance for risk for stockbroker ethics), equity in one's principal residence is excluded, as are lifestyle assets, such as the car and furniture. Therefore, the above example household would only have net financial assets of $115,000. Another term used is "net investable assets" or working capital. These practitioners may use the term "millionaire" to mean somebody who is free to invest a million units of currency through them as broker. For similar reasons, those who market goods, services and investments to HNWIs are careful to specify a net worth "not counting principal residence". At the end of 2011, there were around 5.1 million HNWIs in the United States,[9] while at the same time there were 11 million millionaires[10] in a total of 3.5 million millionaire households,[11] including those 5.1 million HNWIs"


So I am not there yet.

But if you have only 18 BTC = 1,026,000

My wife and I may get there 1 day.

Just stack your BTC. one day. 18 will not be needed only 9 coins will get you there. 9 x 115,000 = 1,035,000 That day is not far off.  Just stack the BTC and Hodl.

1 BTC = $1 million by 2025 I reckon. The absolute latest 2030.

Note however your purchasing power of that $1 million will be significantly reduced.
If we take an average 8% inflation rate we are actually talking almost exactly $500,000 in today's money by 2030.

So 2 BTC will, I think, make you millionaire in dollars in today's money by 2030 but most likely before then.
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April 19, 2021, 04:04:41 AM

Poor.

Again.

JayJuanGee
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April 19, 2021, 05:24:04 AM

Next 39 hours are critical Wink

Need to be at 60 k by tues 12 noon eastern standard time.

Ok.... I will bite.

Why?

I was reading that the world has 46-47 million millionaires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire

To be a millionaire by the definition I found do not count your home you job or your pension.

Count your investable  wealth :

"There are multiple approaches to determining a person's status as a millionaire. One of the two most commonly used measurements is net worth, which counts the total value of all property owned by a household minus the household's debts. According to this definition, a household owning an $800k home, $50k of furnishings, two cars worth $60k, a $60k retirement savings account, $45k in mutual funds, and a $325k vacation home with a $250k mortgage, $40k in car loans, and $25k in credit card debt would be worth about $1,025,000; and every individual in this household would thus be a millionaire. However, according to the net financial assets measurement used for some specific applications (such as evaluating an investor's expected tolerance for risk for stockbroker ethics), equity in one's principal residence is excluded, as are lifestyle assets, such as the car and furniture. Therefore, the above example household would only have net financial assets of $115,000. Another term used is "net investable assets" or working capital. These practitioners may use the term "millionaire" to mean somebody who is free to invest a million units of currency through them as broker. For similar reasons, those who market goods, services and investments to HNWIs are careful to specify a net worth "not counting principal residence". At the end of 2011, there were around 5.1 million HNWIs in the United States,[9] while at the same time there were 11 million millionaires[10] in a total of 3.5 million millionaire households,[11] including those 5.1 million HNWIs"


So I am not there yet.

But if you have only 18 BTC = 1,026,000

My wife and I may get there 1 day.

Just stack your BTC. one day. 18 will not be needed only 9 coins will get you there. 9 x 115,000 = 1,035,000 That day is not far off.  Just stack the BTC and Hodl.

1 BTC = $1 million by 2025 I reckon. The absolute latest 2030.

Note however your purchasing power of that $1 million will be significantly reduced.
If we take an average 8% inflation rate we are actually talking almost exactly $500,000 in today's money by 2030.

So 2 BTC will, I think, make you millionaire in dollars in today's money by 2030 but most likely before then.

I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.
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April 19, 2021, 05:32:23 AM


I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?
Buying dividend stock or 10 year treasury is NOT passive income.
Spending down your 1 mil is also not considered passive income.
You keep saying that over and over, but it is absolutely erroneous.
I would be in agreement if you say that you can probably spend 3.3% of your stash every year without ever running out, but stop calling it "passive income".
Passive income is "earnings derived from a rental property, limited partnership, or other enterprise in which a person is not actively involved."
This is what passive income is, but it is NOT spending down your stash.
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April 19, 2021, 06:02:49 AM

Ethereum the best





JayJuanGee
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April 19, 2021, 06:12:39 AM


I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.

You might need to work on your reading skills a bit more.  I said that you need about double today as you would have needed in 2010 including millionnaire status.

As you likely already know because we have discussed the matter a zillion times, the passive income of $3,333 per month is based on using an withdrawal rate of 4% per year.. and presuming that you are able to earn at least 4% per year has been traditional accounting .. but not consensus because there are differing views on how much peeps believe that they can earn and/or safely withdraw from any principle in order to maintain it.

Where are you getting these numbers?

Traditional accounting... of a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, which is $1million x 4% = $40k/12.

Buying dividend stock or 10 year treasury is NOT passive income.

If you get value appreciation of at least 4% per year, then you can withdraw it.. its the same thing - and probably you have to earn a bit more if there are capital gains taxes or something like that in there which may well be different depending on which asset class you are referring to.. in this case we should be mostly considering bitcoin, but I understand peeps are going to diversify into other assets as well..  You can figure out the details of your own situation regarding how much you might need to sustain yourself, what assets you have... and what expenses you might have.


Spending down your 1 mil is also not considered passive income.

I give no shits.  I am talking about if the value appreciates, then you still have the same amount in principle if you are ONLY spending from the appreciating amount.. same thing as passive income, only thing is that you may have to spend some time managing your money, but you are not having to bust your ass, you are living off of the value - and if you want to make it perpetual, they you should not be drawing into the principle.. even though at some point yit ou might want to draw down the principle as well.  

You keep saying that over and over, but it is absolutely erroneous.

You have not pointed out any errors yet. Only complaining that might not be able to get 4% in appreciation to be able to account for the spending, and I would just suggest that you have more then or that you make sure that you are invested in assets that are appreciating at least if NOT more on average than you are withdrawing, in order that you are not eating into your principle.

I would be in agreement if you say that you can probably spend 3.3% of your stash every year without ever running out, but stop calling it "passive income".

I say 4%, and my new formula in bitcoin is going to allow up to 12% per year using the 208 week moving average.

And, yes it is passive because you do not have to work for it, beyond maybe managing it (which does not count), so I could give less than two shits if you accept my use of the word "passive" or not.

Passive income is "earnings derived from a rental property, limited partnership, or other enterprise in which a person is not actively involved."

In the case of bitcoin, it is value appreciation too.

This is what passive income is, but it is NOT spending down your stash.

If the value of your stash is appreciating more than you are spending, then for all intents and purposes it is passive income.. and with any volatile asset, you have to figure out a way to measure its value in such a way that attempts to account for the volatility and so you might not be withdrawing faster than it is appreciating - which I have been using the 208-week moving average for measurement of value for about the past 6 months to year or so.  So currently the 208-week moving average has a value of close to $11,500.  So in order to be a millionaire, you would currently need about 87 coins, and of course double that for $2million.. which I would suggest to be the bare minimum to reach fuck you status.

Since I am allowing up to 12% per year based on the 208-week moving average, of course, $1million may well be enough for many folks under my formula, because that would be $10k per month.  That is $1million x 12% = 120k/12.
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April 19, 2021, 06:25:30 AM

How do you say "smoke grenade launcher" in German?
Don't ask.
Nebelwerfer
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April 19, 2021, 06:31:10 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Ethereum the best







It’s been asked many times, please in the ethereum threads.... you really have no respect for others? This is a BTC thread....
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April 19, 2021, 06:54:13 AM
Merited by friends1980 (1)

One good thing.... yesterday I didn’t lose any BTC
1btc = 1btc
Game remains unchanged
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April 19, 2021, 06:58:26 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/beyond-4-rule-how-much-can-you-safely-spend-retirement

Quote
One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It’s relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust the dollar amount you withdraw to account for inflation. By following this formula, you should have a very high probability of not outliving your money during a 30-year retirement according to the rule.

For example, let’s say your portfolio at retirement totals $1 million. You would withdraw $40,000 in your first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, you would give yourself a 2% raise the following year, withdrawing $40,800, and so on for the next 30 years.

The 4% rule assumes you withdraw the same amount from your portfolio every year, adjusted for inflation
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April 19, 2021, 07:02:29 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

How do you say "smoke grenade launcher" in German?
Don't ask.
Nebelwerfer

Good morning.
"Nebelwerfer" is rrrong.  Sad
It's a rocket/grenade launcher named after its inventor's last name (Nebel).

What you are looking for is "Nebelmittelwurfanlage" or "Nebelwurfanlage".

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebelmittelwurfanlage
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April 19, 2021, 07:15:22 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1)


https://twitter.com/bradmillscan/status/1383866029474865162?s=21
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April 19, 2021, 07:16:10 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)


Woah, that's quite a response. I feel... honored.

I'm just going to keep it short and give my view why I rather stay in BTC instead of fiat.

Selling month to month may sound like a crazy way to manage cash-flow. But see it as a salary or DCA if you like. Bitcoin is my main source of income and has been so ever since I quit my job in 2016. The reason I'm staying all-in in BTC and not selling more than needed is because I feel that is the safest bet. Just like your strategy has been a success for you, this strategy has worked out pretty well for me. I'm doing OK.

If this indeed was the top of the bull-run and we were to enter another crypto winter, I can manage that too. Either way, I will try to take advantage of the volatility with my trading stash, which currently is around 5% of my total stash.

What's the worst thing that could happen, bitcoin going to zero over night because of some unpredictable event? Fine, that's not the end of the world (or maybe it is?). If it's not, I guess I'll just have to look for a job again. At least I had one hell of a ride.
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April 19, 2021, 07:55:20 AM

Good to see them green dildos.
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April 19, 2021, 08:02:27 AM

Good to see them green dildos.

Too short.
Maybe green buttplugs?  Grin
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico
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April 19, 2021, 08:35:08 AM

How do you say "smoke grenade launcher" in German?
Don't ask.
Nebelwerfer

Good morning.
"Nebelwerfer" is rrrong.  Sad
It's a rocket/grenade launcher named after its inventor's last name (Nebel).

What you are looking for is "Nebelmittelwurfanlage" or "Nebelwurfanlage".

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebelmittelwurfanlage


Good morning to you, too.

I stand corrected.

Ursäkt, Arrie.

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April 19, 2021, 09:12:51 AM

Bitstamps order book (BUY SIDE) has been knocking around $50m to $60 million for months now. Today it has jumped to $135 million. This is the highest I have ever seen it. bullish
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