It feels like a bear market. Maybe (hopefully) a local one.
What a bunch of bullshit.
You are either in a bearmarket or you are not.
If you happen to be in a "local one" then that is called a correction.
So, yes, it seems way the fuck more likely that we are in a correction than a bearmarket, and sure if several months down the road it starts to appear that we are NOT recovering from this particular correction, then we could proclaim that we were in a bearmarket and such bear market began on May 11 or whatever date becomes apparent... blah blah blah. .and we realized that we were in such bearmarket on x date. It is way the fuck premature to be recognizing that we are in a bearmarket (if it were to be true) on June 5.. and sure you were already saying we were in a bearmarket on May 11.. so you are sooooooo excittteeee to call a bear market as soon as you can. What a dweeb.
Not predicting anything, but a continuation of this would be similar to $6.5K 'flat' that fooled everybody in 2018.
Huh? Yeah, we figured out that we were in a bearmarket in 2018 later down the road, but we visited $6k support several times between about February and November before it finally broke below $6k.. so in some sense it is a big so fucking what.. we were in a bear market.. and then we seemed to have had stayed in that bearmarket until about April 2019 and confirmed to be out in about mid May 2019.
It ended with almost vertical decline from $6.K to $3.1K where we had capitulation. "Math and science" $ for $ comparison would stipulate $17-20K bottom if this scenario plays out. Probability: imho, 30-50%. The rest (50-70%): we would just scrape some bottom (hopefully, above 30K) and slowly (at first ) turn around and proceed to some ATH.
Fair enough.. but does seem to be pretty high probabilities that you are assigning to those downward scenarios, which is also fair if you are assessing that we are actually in a bear market. Hopefully you are adequately pee pared for UPpity.. but yeah, of course you will claim that you are adequately prepared for UP, but then you will whine the whole time if we go up rather than down, just like you have been doing all the way up from $10k.
So, your proclamation for down seems more like a wish rather than an actual reasonable assessment of where we happen to be at.
Why do I have the same feeling (of 2018 deja vu):
Because you are a dweeb?
#nohomoa. We have a few very large, but very iffy holders (starting with Musk, maybe PTJ, even Novo).
Don't know who is PTJ...... oh.. just thought about it.. o.kk.. Paul Tutor Jones.
Not sure if their sales of their stash would change BTC's trajectory.. but sure.. perhaps.
b. We have another large holder (M. Saylor), who bought one large tranche too high and did not buy it using cash. Instead, he borrowed money. Ideologically, he is a hodler, but we don't know if he had any debt covenants. Hopefully, none. His average is about 24K. I believe that he would hold even if we get there and below, but who knows.
I would think that he is continuing to buy.. but sure, we do not know.. but does seem like a long shot to suggest that he is selling his 92k plus company coins and his more than 17k personal coins. His personal coins were obtained below $10k.. but sure he may have bought some more since last year, and he does not necessarily need to disclose his personal stash.
c. Wall street absolutely loves when someone takes a known leveraged position and they are able to hammer such entity with a down move, trying to force a liquidation sale.
Still talking about Saylor,? So fucking what.
He took two leveraged positions with his company, and likely each of those for about $1billion each. The first one was at .75% (not a very high interest rate), and the second one was at 0%, so hardly seems problematic with either of those unless his company becomes unable to make their payments to service the loans.. I cannot recall what the payment terms were or if they just all come due at the end? Perhaps they all come due at the end.. each of them were 5 years I believe.
Largely, you Biodom seem to be exaggerating in order to justify your premature (and likely ongoing disgruntled) bearish position.. but whatever, do what you like, and we will see what happens.. I know that diptwats like you like to get really active as the BTC price is going down... so hopefully you can help to scare some newbies into selling.. which is largely the opposite of what newbies should be doing.. because historically we have seen way too much evidence of nocoiners (or under invested peeps) sitting on the fence too long, failing to buy enough to prepare for UP, and then at some point the price does not come down and they are waiting, waiting and waiting and finally, if they buy, they end up buying at the top...
Don't get me wrong, I don't care too much if people do dumb stuff, but surely you, Biodom, and some of the other dweebs, tend to talk a pretty Big bunch of bullshit to suggest that peeps are going to have opportunities to buy lower.. which they may or may not end up having.
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