Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Explanation

seems Imgur.com is down. don't blame it on ChartBuddy!

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/imgur

Nah, blame chartbuddy, bully him, and call him names I reckon. He's an utter pussy never does anything back so giving him a hard time will make you feel tougher.

[UnDerDoG81]

So price is not looking good once again, expected with the complete lack of demand lately, mempool empty etc. Anyway, I’ve been looking through a lot of indicators, very few of them indicated our recent top. That could be because we still haven’t reached the top for this cycle though I currently find that unlikely.

In a hunt for something that did indicate the top (and previous tops), while still being based on some actual fundamentals (rather then stupid shit like MACD), I have found what I think makes the most sense. Short-term holder supply.

This first chart is a little old, but as you can see it appears as though short-term holders drive the price. This makes sense as increased short terms means more demand as noobs flood into the market when at first they think it is good value/time to start accumulating, and then later with FOMO. Excluding the Mt Gox bubble of 2013, each top shows a definite slowing of noob buying. Each low in price and bull run beginning, also seems to be shown buy first a pausing of the decline in short termers then followed by an increase.



Same can be seen in chart 2 below



Now look at chart 3 and you’ll see a pretty exact picture of what I mentioned above for the recent top. So in my opinion we aren’t going to see this price decline stop until we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders and then for price to increase again we would need an increase in these short-term holders



In conclusion, we may be at a bottom, but I won’t believe it till we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders. And whenever this happens (hopefully now) it will be a better time to start buying.

Too bad glassnode don’t give this data away for free.

Pi cycle top indicator was right once again. I watched that chart for months. But all the other charts like NUPL, Stock to Flow etc. showed we are nowhere near the top. So I ignored the cross of the Pi cycle. And here we are, 50% down. We can just hope for a 2013 like 2nd top. Otherwise this thing will go down further. I just hope we wont see sub 20k ever again. At least not stay there but bounce back up quickly.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

[OutOfMemory]

It's been over 10 years, but it's wild to finally see the confirmed end of bitcoin play out in real time. What should we do now?

Crying would not be a bad thing to do.

Only real men are able to cry anytime.

[somac.]

Pi cycle top indicator was right once again. I watched that chart for months. But all the other charts like NUPL, Stock to Flow etc. showed we are nowhere near the top. So I ignored the cross of the Pi cycle. And here we are, 50% down. We can just hope for a 2013 like 2nd top. Otherwise this thing will go down further. I just hope we wont see sub 20k ever again. At least not stay there but bounce back up quickly.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

That's the thing though, I saw it too but no confirmation from anything else. Same may happening again but perhaps with a different indicator and we'll go its all good because Pi cycle isn't topping. Demand/Supply I feel is the only indicator that matters and I believe those measurements from glassnode are the best ones for measuring that. I will be hunting for more measurements shortly though.

I'm with you on the hopes too. If we don't get a 2013 I don't think things will be as bad though, we didn't really overheat that much this run so we should be better positioned on the bear side of things.

[OutOfMemory]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

Minorities have rights you know.

The right to click "ignore" is sufficient for me.

As for the El Salvador - IMF brawl that's on the horizon:

Q: How do you tell the pioneer from the infantryman after a battle?
A: The pioneer is the one with the bullet(s) in the back  

Ready for witnessing an epic fight. I hope it will be short and painless (for bitcoin, of course).

[somac.]

A Number Of Websites Down In Massive Internet Outage
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-down-users-unable-access-website

Bitcoin unaffected.

[somac.]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

Minorities have rights you know.

The right to click "ignore" is sufficient for me.

As for the El Salvador - IMF brawl that's on the horizon:

Q: How do you tell the pioneer from the infantryman after a battle?
A: The pioneer is the one with the bullet(s) in the back  

Ready for witnessing an epic fight. I hope it will be short and painless (for bitcoin, of course).

Yeah this is a worry.

[Karartma1]

I hope the bitcoin price is not aligning with this thread's page count
 

[Gyrsur]

DON'T PANIC ON THE TITANIC
because Wyckoff.

[shahzadafzal]

$32k

Can some one?... please?

[somac.]

DON'T PANIC ON THE TITANIC
because Wyckoff.

Maybe, big Maybe. Everybody is talking about this right now so I think it unlikely to hold. Mind you I'm hoping it does.

Also volume looks like shit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gyrsur]

A Number Of Websites Down In Massive Internet Outage
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-down-users-unable-access-website

Bitcoin unaffected.

DECENTRALIZATION my ass! will they never learn? 

[Arriemoller]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

Minorities have rights you know.

this thread here is not the only place where you can spend your free time. am I right?   #honomo

accept ChartBuddy or please leave. end of discussion from my side because you have the intelligence to understand it but you are not willing it.

No and no.

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/mskvsk/status/1402158762190909443

[Arriemoller]

Explanation

seems Imgur.com is down. don't blame it on ChartBuddy!

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/imgur

Nah, blame chartbuddy, bully him, and call him names I reckon. He's an utter pussy never does anything back so giving him a hard time will make you feel tougher.

Are you in love with Chart Buddy? Bots in love?

[somac.]

Explanation

seems Imgur.com is down. don't blame it on ChartBuddy!

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/imgur

Nah, blame chartbuddy, bully him, and call him names I reckon. He's an utter pussy never does anything back so giving him a hard time will make you feel tougher.

Are you in love with Chart Buddy? Bots in love?

It's always easier to pick on someone who won't fight back, and this bot can't even reply to you, so easy target.

And who you calling a bot? Bot.

[Arriemoller]

But his handler can.
And at least I'm a Swedish bot. Bot.

[El duderino_]

[somac.]

But his handler can.
And at least I'm a Swedish bot. Bot.

Beep!