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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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7/21 - 1 (1%)
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8/4 - 16 (16.7%)
8/11 - 7 (7.3%)
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8/25 - 7 (7.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26452283 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
HI-TEC99
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July 14, 2021, 07:33:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.


If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

Quote
You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.

This website can guess the linked addresses in a wallet. You enter one address into it, then it guesses the rest. It's run by someone from chainalysis.com, which exchanges and governments use to check where bitcoins come from.

https://www.walletexplorer.com/

This website also guesses linked addresses in wallets, but I don't think big business uses its services.

https://btc.cryptoid.info/btc/

You could import the keys to any addresses they missed into electrum, then move those coins to another wallet. That way you could salvage any anonymous addresses you have left.
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July 14, 2021, 07:34:00 PM

Heard about this at Twitter

Quote
BREAKING: Microsoft announces it’s accepting $BTC and operating #Bitcoin nodes directly.
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July 14, 2021, 07:35:03 PM

I see the price met mid $31,000’s. Bit of a dead cat bounce to now meet $32,742. It’s only a matter of time now until new lows are met. Sell everything now before it goes to $20,000. You won’t always have a friendly guy advising you to save your net worth. It’s not too late so get out when you can before the long, cold bear market.
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July 14, 2021, 07:42:57 PM


This user is currently ignored.


C'mon Billy, this is no time to get bearish on us.

We can't stop now. This is bat country.



He's probably a day trader, or a shitcoin shill.

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July 14, 2021, 07:49:19 PM






#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 


Just a real man's arm, a real bitcoiner's arm with some stonecold diamond HODLer hands attachted to them.....

Just the ones a mortal guy wants to avoid at all time  Kiss Tongue

Yeah.. exactly!!!!!!

Not going to catch me trying to eat crackers next to those potentially lethal weapons...

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.

I've never had more than 10k BTC, but having dealt with shitcoins in the past, the actual numbers themselves should "feel" the same whether you are transacting 1 BTC or 10 BTC or 100 BTC ... (since in shitcoin terms, I have experienced both receiving and sending 100k of them in their units.) I even had this shitcoin where I had close to 900 million of it (none of it bought, all mined, since it was a CPU mineable coin back then, so I wasted electricity on it maybe.)

Of course, I am not really trying to get into your Opsec issues, but I was likely attempting to get to the point of considering some of the practical matters of what might be considerations with a more than $22 million portfolio.. so I am not really sure how pertinent the number of units would be, and especially if we are devolving into shitcoin talk...

I am not going to argue in terms of whether there would be differing ways of considering these kinds of matters in terms if you are dealing with your own coins or if you were a fiduciary over someone else's coins or if you were merely in a kind of advisory role.. surely there are a variety of considerations, including that if some ideas are presented to a client, there might be some back and forth before figuring out how to handle the matter depending on how much a client might want to engage with the matter.

We might be going a bit far with some of this speculation too, because each of us have acknowledged that there would be differing considerations in the event that the 750 BTC were the total wealth versus taking into account some other wealth that might also be present for such person with 750 BTC that had previously been sitting for 9 years.

I think without sounding presumptuous, the owner decided to move his coins after 9 years regardless of the drop in price, but maybe more so that it appreciated so many millions in the past 9 years, so that any actual value above say $10k is good enough for them. Or above $20k, as that was the previous top in 2017 to 2018-ish. $30k is still $10k higher than $20k.

That seems a bit presumptuous.. to steal your word from you, but sure, there is a scenario in which what you state makes sense... including selling 100 BTC and changing the wallet (address) configuration of the remainder.


Opsec. I lost all my bitcoins when my boat sank ...

Shit happens.

or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.

1 BTC or even below 1 BTC might actually make sense. You can always use a computer program or software ... now we call that a wallet ... to keep track of all of it anyway. I think as long as the value of the BTC and it's potential transaction fee to transfer or move that coin from that address is below, say, for example 1%, then it's ok. Any smaller value might not make as much sense because you would be "wasting" your coins on transaction fees.

Well there could be some folks who are considering moving spending wallets to the lightning network, so there could be some variations in the size of the source of such from time to time replenishing of lightning channels or lightning wallet balances.  And, sure now versus the future, and I could imagine scenarios that there might not be too many thoughts given to fees - even though at this particular time, there could be some motivations to reconfigure balances based on what seems to be quite low onchain fees, relatively speaking.

Moving 100 BTC with a 0.000002 BTC transaction fee is a very good number. Moving 1 BTC while paying 0.0001 BTC in fees, is also not bad, if you were to do that once a year, or even once a month.

Sure.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.

Some people have come onto wealth only to splurge and spend it all. We've all read the stories of lottery winners and even celebrities that made $300 million, only to go bankrupt because they spent it all in a short time without saving any for the future.

If someone did not have $3m before, it would be wise to make it last if that's what they cashed out.

We are referring to someone who has $22 million, and has sat on it for 9 years.. so hard to characterize such person as potentially suddenly coming into wealth, without knowing more details.

I mean, completely changing your lifestyle might not be the best idea; upgrading it a little bit or getting rid of all your debts if you have any is much better.

I cannot disagree with you in terms of whether someone might be inclined to make sudden changes in spending habits or lifestyle or not.  There likely are a considerable number of bitcoiners who are contemplating some of the ways that they might increase their standard of living.. and maybe having some dilemmas with such considerations.. including but for sure not limited to yours truly.


Someone who had 750 BTC 9 years ago, while it is possible he has other wallets or addresses, it's also quite likely that's all he has as then even if he were a miner, or bought DCA before, it was normal to consolidate all those coins into one address because it was easy to do it.

Sure, it is possible, but I am having trouble with the degree of that speculation... you seem to be putting out an outlier scenario rather than a more likely scenario.

Not many people had the foresight 9 years ago to mine a block of 50 BTC, then split them up into 50 different addresses, and do that often. It would have been such a hassle for something worth "cents".

Very few people carry more than a certain amount of cash in their physical wallets these days, or even 9 years ago. I don't know too many people who even had $750 in cash in their wallets. Most have debit cards, or credit cards, checks, apps on their phone, and maybe $100 in cash, in the wallet. Some don't have cash, just cards.

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..
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July 14, 2021, 08:01:27 PM


Explanation
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July 14, 2021, 08:15:30 PM

Heard about this at Twitter

Quote
BREAKING: Microsoft announces it’s accepting $BTC and operating #Bitcoin nodes directly.

https://twitter.com/UVtho/status/1415258238908608514
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July 14, 2021, 08:16:14 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), psycodad (1)

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.


If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

Quote
You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.

This website can guess the linked addresses in a wallet. You enter one address into it, then it guesses the rest. It's run by someone from chainalysis.com, which exchanges and governments use to check where bitcoins come from.

https://www.walletexplorer.com/

This website also guesses linked addresses in wallets, but I don't think big business uses its services.

https://btc.cryptoid.info/btc/

You could import the keys to any addresses they missed into electrum, then move those coins to another wallet. That way you could salvage any anonymous addresses you have left.

I am going to devolve even further... Might be a stretch, but if you are not using a VPN, and you are searching BTC addresses, and you search a bunch together, might there not be a presumption that the person who searched those BTC addresses is the owner of the addresses?  Yes, I am maybe overly paranoid.. but there can be some difficulties in knowing how much privacy we might have if we are not covering up some of our traffic.
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July 14, 2021, 08:22:32 PM

No Paraguay reads posts yet…..?

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July 14, 2021, 08:51:19 PM

Sad to say... call me a bear (or a beaten up bull), if you must.    Cry Cry





Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.

 We have a word for that in my country Smiley

 



Hot Pussy?
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July 14, 2021, 08:57:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)

Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

... you've pulled the piece of Hal's comment out of context. The full comment was about the asymmetric upside bet. To estimate the asymmetry he needed a ballpark figure for an upside value of btc, at the time it was worthless, so to get an order of magnitude estimate Hal used total global wealth which for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate is fine.

... then he compared the upside value potential of bitcoin with the odds of bitcoin achieving monetary dominance, which he then estimated only needed to be less than 100 million to 1 for to make sense to acquire/hodl some bitcoin, which at the time were worthless remember. He was resoundingly right and the statement still stands, the asymmetric bet was worth it.

Edit; relevant portion of Hal's comment

Quote
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal
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July 14, 2021, 08:57:44 PM

Not gonna break any rules, but I'm gonna buy BTC worth $10 on every merit I receive on this post   Roll Eyes
(Max: $1000)

We should ask him again to do this again, wanna see the price @55k level again  Grin If it worth it, the market price dropped $1T since may i think his 10$ would do just fine  Grin



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July 14, 2021, 08:59:40 PM
Last edit: July 14, 2021, 10:48:57 PM by eXPHorizon

If anyone wants to Laugh abit  Grin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxUpGIzLw-I

Scary Movie | George Best Moments



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo7uuaTgGK4

Hiding a Crazy Guy in My Attic & Hiring an Exterminator for Rats

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July 14, 2021, 09:01:36 PM


Explanation
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July 14, 2021, 09:03:51 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

I see the price met mid $31,000’s. Bit of a dead cat bounce to now meet $32,742. It’s only a matter of time now until new lows are met. Sell everything now before it goes to $20,000. You won’t always have a friendly guy advising you to save your net worth. It’s not too late so get out when you can before the long, cold bear market.

I thought you said it was going to 8k
Now revised to 20k
Tomorrow possibly revised to 30k

Close that leveraged short now before you get rekt. Its not too late.
You know you will sleep easier.
Then DCA buy it back in and Hodl.
You will be rewarded all in good time.


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July 14, 2021, 09:20:17 PM



If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/



https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/OP_RETURN
Quote
OP_RETURN is a script opcode used to mark a transaction output as invalid. Since any outputs with OP_RETURN are provably unspendable, OP_RETURN outputs can be used to burn bitcoins.
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July 14, 2021, 09:32:22 PM

After a brief showing yesterday 350BTC buy wall observed on Stamp again!
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July 14, 2021, 09:35:20 PM

Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

... you've pulled the piece of Hal's comment out of context. The full comment was about the asymmetric upside bet. To estimate the asymmetry he needed a ballpark figure for an upside value of btc, at the time it was worthless, so to get an order of magnitude estimate Hal used total global wealth which for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate is fine.

... then he compared the upside value potential of bitcoin with the odds of bitcoin achieving monetary dominance, which he then estimated only needed to be less than 100 million to 1 for to make sense to acquire/hodl some bitcoin, which at the time were worthless remember. He was resoundingly right and the statement still stands, the asymmetric bet was worth it.

Edit; relevant portion of Hal's comment

Quote
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal
His broader point about game theory was spot on, but I don't think I pulled his reasoning for arriving at the 10 million usd number out of context at all.  He clearly says  "if BTC becomes dominant, then it should equal the value of all the wealth in the world".
Which is faulty logic.  I don't like pointing this out as Hal seemed to be a very likeable and smart person, and given his early involvement deserves to be seen as a hero of sorts.  But people throw this number around as if it was some magic truth predicted by the prophet, and it's just wrong.
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July 14, 2021, 10:43:16 PM
Last edit: July 14, 2021, 11:02:54 PM by marcus_of_augustus
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... you've pulled the piece of Hal's comment out of context. The full comment was about the asymmetric upside bet. To estimate the asymmetry he needed a ballpark figure for an upside value of btc, at the time it was worthless, so to get an order of magnitude estimate Hal used total global wealth which for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate is fine.

... then he compared the upside value potential of bitcoin with the odds of bitcoin achieving monetary dominance, which he then estimated only needed to be less than 100 million to 1 for to make sense to acquire/hodl some bitcoin, which at the time were worthless remember. He was resoundingly right and the statement still stands, the asymmetric bet was worth it.

Edit; relevant portion of Hal's comment

Quote
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal
His broader point about game theory was spot on, but I don't think I pulled his reasoning for arriving at the 10 million usd number out of context at all.  He clearly says  "if BTC becomes dominant, then it should equal the value of all the wealth in the world".
Which is faulty logic.  I don't like pointing this out as Hal seemed to be a very likeable and smart person, and given his early involvement deserves to be seen as a hero of sorts.  But people throw this number around as if it was some magic truth predicted by the prophet, and it's just wrong.


... you're not actually refuting anything Hal talked about, all you are doing is stating he is wrong, on a specific point that's been pulled out of context from a different argument, without backing up that claim.

... and he's actually not that far off for a rough order-of-magnitude estimate, the total float of all the monetary goods in the world, includes fiat M0-M3, gold/silver acting as money-equivalent, real-estate, bonds and other financial assets that are presently being 'monetised', used as stores-of-value, (since fiat money is being inflated) would be quite close to the total worldwide household wealth ... this is the addressable market for a liquid global reserve money

.. argue otherwise or stop repeating your baseless claim?
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