Oh gawd, Dabs.
My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...
Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.
For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.
For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...
Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value?
*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.
Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.
I thinkenings of it this way, if I (personally, me) had 750 BTC in cold storage for 9 years, and I needed to access that today (or yesterday, or any time this year 2021), after seeing its dollar value go fluctuate between $20k up to $60k in the first quarter of 2021 alone, I would probably do something similar.
Cash out 100 BTC, save the remaining 650 BTC and put back into cold storage (or in this case, the owner did something else, perhaps he split it some more into more parts depending on how he thinks it should be managed.)
So yes, many of us are here because the fiat world is devaluing, but at the same time we also know the dollars and the fiats are not disappearing soon.
Considering that the average person can survive on approximately $40k in expenses per year (or less), then $1m ought to last that person at least 30 years, even if conservatively invested in traditional equities/fixed income assets. $3m therefore will be about the same thing for anyone with less than $120k in annual expenses.
Most people will have more than 9 years with that kind of fiat cash dollars, even if they don't invest in anything and just dump it in a cash "savings" account, or spending account.
The remaining 650 BTC (worth at least $20m USD), I probably will not need myself, as I'm sure the real owner of that address did not need it for 9 years, can be put back into cold storage and not touched for at least another 9 to 10 to 20, maybe to 30 years.
I did not bother tracking where the rest moved though, so I don't know what could have happened to it. The wise thing to try to do is obfuscate the trail using whatever tech there is now, such as CoinJoins like Wasabi or Samourai or putting it into multi-sig, or if you trust an exchange to handle that kind of coin temporarily before sending it back to cold storage.
Personally, I would divide that into maybe 65 different addresses of 10 BTC each (or even smaller), whatever I can handle just thinkenings about it, just so I can keep them separate.
Even if I did not have to use the cash, allowing a budget of at most 10 BTC a year, the stash could last 65 years, at whatever price it is then.
Of course, if in the next 10 to 20 years, we see that fiat is seriously and miserably failing according to whatever standards we believe in the future, then surely, just HODL onto the BTC and spend as needed. Or don't spend, try to make the $3 million dollars in cash last as long as you can.
Of course, this all depends on what is one's current income and spending numbers. The usual 4% rule and $40k annual expenses are just arbitrary numbers. Some have it higher or lower.
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