Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Please

The boys season 3

ASAP

2022 I think I read it


 which is too long.







oh the diff just hit so I get to mine more  corn for 2 weeks.


-4.807%


https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Last adjustment was really big this one not so much

I projected 5% 2 weeks ago I was close.


Lets say I wished for -5% maybe honey badger does care

Difficulty drop and price bump. You love to see it

As a miner..


diff has dropped from

25.3 to 14.4 in last 2 months

price has dropped

64k to 34k

If you do the math in terms of collecting and stacking coins it means more coins and if you are just selling to cash (I am not). you are making about 5% less in terms of cash

14.4/25.3 x 64k = 36k and price  is 34.6k

I am concerned with the new diff adjustment coming in 2 weeks

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   689509  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   85.3997%  (38 / 44.50 expected, 6.5 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   19932791027262.74                            
Current Difficulty:   14363025673659.96                            
Next Difficulty:   between 12521597367956 and 14284579252675
Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.8206% and -0.5462%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:25 AM  (-27.9427%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 17, 2021 at 4:33 AM  (in 13d 18h 43m 44s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 19, 2021 at 11:51 AM  (in 16d 2h 1m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 8m 42s and 16d 9h 26m 37s

 
...

We are down about 14%
It is very early but a 14% drop on top of the 27.94% drop is more than I thought would happen.

If we drop 14% and go from 14.3 to 12.29 we are well under 50% of the gear online

That could be a real security issue.  I advise all to check the diff  and see what it does. this adjustment is important how does that go "the next 2 weeks are critical"


https://diff.cryptothis.com/

is easy to understand.  I really do not want any drop over 10% in 2-2.5 weeks I would prefer a drop of 5% or less.

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[JayJuanGee]

Well, my bitcoins are now worth less then they were six months ago, and yet I'm not particularly worried, why?
Because the 60K top does not look like a proper blow of top, it didn't go up sharp enough, it plateaued on 60ish K for a while and it didn't have a dead cat bounce, hence it wasn't a real super top.

Just my 25 öre.

I'm weeping into my milk at the current price. Only 450X up on my original coins..which I still have.

And 2X on the most recent.

Disappointed with Billy nocoins investment advice and sure prediction of 30k the other day.

Have fiat ready to go for such an opportunity (along with millions of others).

May have to content myself with a purchase mid 31k before that window closes.

Looking back 64k will have been that little bulge on the charts that signals the start of the proper run up to the top of a cycle, which this one has not yet completed.

In the whole history of Bitcoin the situation has never looked so good.

I suppose officially (or would that be "technically"?) it is more accurate to divide your coins in terms of each time that you bought some and then you would have an open and a close for when you sold them (if you did).

Sometimes I do not necessarily want to go into that level of detail in regards to what my own situation and systems of classification are, and technically the lowest amount that I have ever bought any BTC is at $182 in January 2015, and likely I bought a relatively low quantity of BTC at that particular price because, I had been buying all the way down from $1,201 in November 2013, and yes you might proclaim that BTC had never gotten all the way up to $1,201 in November 2013, but it did for me when I met someone to make a direct transaction at the outside metal chairs outside of a grocery shopping location... Yes, the official BTC price on Bitstamp peaked out at $1,163 for that particular part of the cycle.

So, gosh, I did buy the vast majority of my BTC stash in through out that year (of 2014), and looking back seeing my cashflow kind of steadily being available, but also having some lump sum periods of availability of funds during that time that got channeled into bitcoin.. and so yes, I suppose that I was behaving with some level of irresponsibility in terms of having some target ideas in my head about BTC accumulation levels that I wanted to reach, but a lot of that is a kind of fog in my memory - absent looking back at some of the transactions and considering whether I might have been aggressive enough given my whole financial situation... and geez it looks like a lot of coins (relatively speaking about getting to 0.21 BTC and all that) were acquired in the $500 to $700 range because I was kind of considering the drop from  the lower 4 digits and into the mid-ish 3 digits was such a "great deal".. and the fact that my average cost per BTC was about $560-ish by the end of 2014, did not really feel bad at all, even if the price still went down and then ended up staying down for the vast majority of 2015 - so like largely in the a bit lower than 50% off of my average cost per BTC range. 

So, great deals in the mid-3 digits were not really seeming like great deals until many years later.. and sure of course, there might be some ways of considering the whole matter in such a way that  maybe it does not matter so much whether I might have been able to achieve 450x returns or merely just 30x-ish --- which is kind of easy to calculate - even while generally outlining that "bitcoin has been berry berry good to me.".. but take current BTC prices (at $31,500-ish), for example, I still remain inclined to generally refer to my situation as either 31.5x-ish (not sure if it is just easier to calculate in that way), even though I might sometimes want to proclaim a higher number such as 42x in profits.. and maybe it depends on the general point that I am wanting to make, and neither of the numbers is really untrue.. it's just a kind of short hand attempt to make some points... ..

And, so for sure, if part of the point is to show - "how the fuck could I really be bothered with some of my coins at a mere 450x in profits versus their 927x peak profits in mid April?  Is there any real and/or meaningful difference in that level of profits, so if I get back to my lowest purchase of $182, then I could proclaim that lowest purchase of coins ever to currently be about a measly 175x profits, but at one point, it had a profit level of a wee bit more than 356x... .. Either way, I suppose depending on the point (emphasis) being attempted to be made.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

Bitcoin is starting to feel like a coiled spring. Bears have gotten some balls to short these levels and the big boys are accumulating. I don’t think we’ve seen the end yet. One more quick dive down might be helpful in the long run to close out some leveraged longs before taking the next step, but a flash downward met with heavy buying would be a signal to me that $100K+ is still in the cards for 2021.

[HI-TEC99]

Observing $32340.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I assume this is fake as far as "proof of destruction" goes, but you never really know with China.

Looks photoshopped to me but we need some expert's opinion... xhomer?  

... it's real. Some gang in Malayasia was stealing electricity to mine bitcoins (~$2million) so the local police chief decided to set an example by steam-rolling the bitcoin mining equipment.

... kind of an idiot considering he could have sold them to recover losses for the electricity company or even used them to mine some of the money back

edit: fillipone beat me to it ..

[xhomerx10]

I assume this is fake as far as "proof of destruction" goes, but you never really know with China.

Looks photoshopped to me but we need some expert's opinion... xhomer?  

... it's real. Some gang in Malayasia was stealing electricity to mine bitcoins (~$2million) so the local police chief decided to set an example by steam-rolling the bitcoin mining equipment.

... kind of an idiot considering he could have sold them to recover losses for the electricity company or even used them to mine some of the money back

 The article said they also "razed" 3 homes that were used in the operation.  That'll learn those criminals.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Bitcoin is in a 4-year cycle. Bitcoin finds support at the 1.618 Fibonacci in July of 13, 17, 21 (4 years apart!). The trend would show that Bitcoin will have a top in December of 21 at ~300k

https://twitter.com/MASTERBTCLTC/status/1416426996645597187

... of course it is, the fourth yearly July Fibonacci window, who doesn't know that??

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[WaltKitty]

Bitcoin is starting to feel like a coiled spring. Bears have gotten some balls to short these levels and the big boys are accumulating. I don’t think we’ve seen the end yet. One more quick dive down might be helpful in the long run to close out some leveraged longs before taking the next step, but a flash downward met with heavy buying would be a signal to me that $100K+ is still in the cards for 2021.

In the midst of a pennant snap for sure I would say. Its going to have to break $35,000 to get to $38,000 and going the other way it will need to get past $28,000 to get to $25,000. A flash crash under $27,500 would close that shoulder and certainly add fuel to the fire for aother all time high potentially this year. It could go the other way as well, the dip under $30,000 is not recovered from and we slide into a prolonged bear market until the next halving. Its a thin flip either way in my opinion. Where the train is going long term should be obvious to any who care to take a look.

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin is starting to feel like a coiled spring. Bears have gotten some balls to short these levels and the big boys are accumulating. I don’t think we’ve seen the end yet. One more quick dive down might be helpful in the long run to close out some leveraged longs before taking the next step, but a flash downward met with heavy buying would be a signal to me that $100K+ is still in the cards for 2021.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[boumalo]

From 60K+ to now, I though it was going down, and it did. Now, it is resisting so much and it's so hard to make it go down sub 20K$ that I am turning bullish. I am close to capitulating so maybe it is actually a bearish sign and it will end up going down.

If there are terrible economic news and a credit crunch, it will go down.

The non transitory inflation will get worse in the US and the FED is likely to keep kicking the can down the road to save time and the system rather than to fight it but if it does fight inflation with huge interest rates, it will be ugly and a blood bath. Make your bets.

[WaltKitty]

How often do you actually get a YT recommendation that you actual like? Said never until tonight.
Natty Bong - Blue Jeans


I thought this place had a DJ and a tiki bar. WTFO?  Anyway, nothing left to do but hang on bitches and see what tomorrow brings.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is starting to feel like a coiled spring. Bears have gotten some balls to short these levels and the big boys are accumulating. I don’t think we’ve seen the end yet. One more quick dive down might be helpful in the long run to close out some leveraged longs before taking the next step, but a flash downward met with heavy buying would be a signal to me that $100K+ is still in the cards for 2021.

In the midst of a pennant snap for sure I would say. Its going to have to break $35,000 to get to $38,000 and going the other way it will need to get past $28,000 to get to $25,000. A flash crash under $27,500 would close that shoulder and certainly add fuel to the fire for aother all time high potentially this year. It could go the other way as well, the dip under $30,000 is not recovered from and we slide into a prolonged bear market until the next halving. Its a thin flip either way in my opinion. Where the train is going long term should be obvious to any who care to take a look.

I doubt that your technical analysis adequately accounts for the power of the various underlying bitcoin price models.. especially your assertion that we would go back into a long bear market based on the conditions that you describe.. seems to me that even if we were to visit sub $25k would not necessarily cause a strong conclusion that the top of $64,895 for this particular cycle is all the top that we are going to get for this calendar year.

Conclude what you like...

Bitcoin is starting to feel like a coiled spring. Bears have gotten some balls to short these levels and the big boys are accumulating. I don’t think we’ve seen the end yet. One more quick dive down might be helpful in the long run to close out some leveraged longs before taking the next step, but a flash downward met with heavy buying would be a signal to me that $100K+ is still in the cards for 2021.

I agree with that assessment too, and even though I understand that there is justification for long squeeze incentives but I still have trouble concluding that down before up is necessary, even if there may well be a sufficient number of levered longs justifying such a squeezening.

From 60K+ to now, I though it was going down, and it did. Now, it is resisting so much and it's so hard to make it go down sub 20K$ that I am turning bullish. I am close to capitulating so maybe it is actually a bearish sign and it will end up going down.

If there are terrible economic news and a credit crunch, it will go down.

You are making a real strange set of statements, boumalo.  First, you supposedly knew (or had a feeling) that we were going down 50%, and then we did?  Second, you thought that the BTC price was going to go down more but it does not want to, Third, you have been wanting to sell your BTC for so long, but so far you have not, yet even though you are feeling both bearish and bullish at the same time, you are considering selling your BTC at the sign of any further DOWNity.

You really sound like a guy with weak hands, even though I do understand that I may well be misunderstanding some of the sentiments of what you are seeming to be contradictorily saying.

The non transitory inflation will get worse in the US and the FED is likely to keep kicking the can down the road to save time and the system rather than to fight it but if it does fight inflation with huge interest rates, it will be ugly and a blood bath. Make your bets.

Seems doubtful that they are going to do that... but I suppose, never say never.

Anyway, nothing left to do but hang on bitches and see what tomorrow brings.

Does not seem that dramatic.

We have largely been consolidating for two months... There might be a break out and there might not.... don't see how any of us would know either way.. until maybe getting some movement outside of the $28k to $38k range.., perhaps?  Perhaps?  Who knows what numbers would be needed in order to cause actual momentum rather than ongoing failure/refusal to break in either direction?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

... kind of an idiot considering he could have sold them to recover losses for the electricity company or even used them to mine some of the money back

Give the miners to the electric company to run when there's excess capacity. Give them to the poors to use as heaters when it's cold (assuming it gets that cold?). Heck, if they're still coming equipped with beagleboards, rip them off and give them to schools.

[Richy_T]

If there are terrible economic news and a credit crunch, it will go down.

Talking of weird YouTube trails, I was wanting to do "scary face stretching behind a rubber sheet" thing which led to me searching for frighteners which led me to Minty Comedic Arts video about it which led me to his video about Weird Science which led me down a rabbit hole to Oingo Boingo (who made the theme tune and have several excellent tracks) and subsequently to the new stuff Danny Elfman has been releasing this year (which is some warped and damn good stuff).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sSLLRGC6tM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3xKyWemAr0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation