Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

Hello gentlemen!

I've been trying to spend time away from here, and trying to forget about bitcoin for a few months. These periods are depressing for me if my mind remains bitcoin-centric. Better to spend time outside, enjoying the beautiful weather.

Hello sir

same here...but I have to admit something...      hello...my name is toxic204 and I am an addict...   I am addicted to this thread and the wonderful personalities that inhabit it

didnt even make it a month before falling off the wagon   

anyhoo  hope your family is doing well infofront


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Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

+1 WOsMerit

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

$30,000 is fine, no problem.

It’s a problem for me personally if this seemingly endless slide downwards continues though. $30,000 is cool but $12,000 or something is not. I don’t need or want to buy any dip. I have enough bitcoin, I really thought we were going to $100,000+ this year.

I pray the bottom is near.

[kellrobinson]

Went back and looked at PlanB's original 2019 stock-to-flow paper.  Here is the chart I generated when I tried to replicate his math.  You should ignore the curve before the first halving, it's kind of arbitrary, depends on what you set as a starting date.  I used pizza day, but it doesn't really matter because the choice of starting day has no effect on anything after the first halving on November 28, 2012; that stuff is set in stone once you settle on your parameters.  I used PlanB's original equation,
ln(marketcap) = 3.31954 * ln(stock/flow) + 14.6227
Anyway, if there's anything to this s2f stuff, the next year or two should cheer us up.

[AlcoHoDL]

I'm a hardcore pro-vaxxer and vaccinated myself (Pfizer) but in fact new variants are getting less and less deadly. More contagious, yes but less deadly. And in year or two Covid will turn into common flu...  

I'm a hardcore pro-vaxxer too. Of the mRNA variety. I have a sensitivity to certain types of food (I can die if I eat them), and I was asked about this before getting the Pfizer vaccine, but I did not disclose it to the nurse, because I feared she would not allow me to get vaccinated. Of course, I had already researched about it before my appointment, and already knew it would be OK, but I didn't want to have to try to explain this to the nurse who may have ended up not allowing me to get vaccinated for safety reasons.

We are all here, communicating at the comfort of our homes, being in good health, prosperous, happy (most of us, I guess), having access to health care, education, a safe environment to work and socialize (yes, even now), having unprecedented and instant access to a gigantic database full of information (the internet), being capable of communicating with virtually every other human being on planet Earth, being able to do things that our parents and grandparents could not even dream of, ALL OF THE ABOVE, DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND RESEARCH, in virtually all scientific fields. mRNA vaccines are among those technological advances, whether some of us want to accept it or not.

Apologies for shouting in the above paragraph, but I find it totally unfair and unethical for people to write off and disregard the benefits of all those medical and scientific advances, all those remarkable achievements that enable all of us (even the naysayers) to enjoy our lives and be healthy, prosperous and productive.

We are here because of a few smart, capable, bright inventors, scientists and engineers, throughout history and today, who spent (and are spending) countless hours in the laboratories, trying to find ways to solve problems, achieve breakthroughs, surpass obstacles and barriers never before thought possible. So, next time someone complains about Bill Gates wanting to eliminate the human race and turn us into reptiles, or 4G/5G and microchips trying to control our thoughts, I advise them to switch off their phones, cut off their internet connection (no WO!), turn off the mains power to their homes, disconnect the water supply, stop using their cars, and try to survive like this for a week. Then they can re-evaluate their stance of technology and how "evil" they think it is.

I'm not saying there are no conspiracies, or that there is no evil in this world, but I'm totally fed up with all those tin-foil hatters worrying about every single thing that technology brings to us. Nothing good comes out of their mouths. It's all evil, all bad for us, all part of a grand scheme by the evil rulers of the world to make us zombified robots obeying their every command. I know a few of those tin-foil hatters (some are relatives), and it just saddens me to see them suffering and limiting their potential, by deluding themselves and believing every single conspiracy theory they read about on the net. Just yesterday, a relative I met tried to put coins on my body because she heard that those vaccinated with mRNA vaccines have become magnetic! She was serious! Holy fugging crap! Funny thing is, the coins she tried to use on me were not ferromagnetic (they don't even get attracted by real magnets). Man, it's just so sad...

[ImThour]

No way! I got blessed by infofront's merit.
Thanks for making this thread at first place buddy. It's the first thing I look at while poop.

[Saidasun]

Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

$30,000 is fine, no problem.

It’s a problem for me personally if this seemingly endless slide downwards continues though. $30,000 is cool but $12,000 or something is not. I don’t need or want to buy any dip. I have enough bitcoin, I really thought we were going to $100,000+ this year.

I pray the bottom is near.

Are you trading frequently? If you do not want to buy in a dip I assume you are not looking to buy anymore at all which probably means you are fine holding on for the bumpy road ahead. I think the Elon Musk interview as much as we do not give a fuck about what he has to say will effect the price in the next couple of weeks-months so you could be waiting a while depending on what is said and how many of his followers listen to his statements.

100k next year definitely just hold on boys and girls.

No way! I got blessed by infofront's merit.
Thanks for making this thread at first place buddy. It's the first thing I look at while poop.

A survey showed that 98.7% of us here look at this while we poop and those stats are inaccurate because the remaining 1.3% are fucking liars.

[Millionero]

I'm totally fed up with all those tin-foil hatters

Hatters gonna hat.

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone know why GBTC FUD did not affect the price? I was waiting with a little cash but there was no drop in the price.
my last time I bought it was around 29500 and it went up an hour later to around 34,000, it was perfect timing.

Maybe wait till 21st July, something's cooking up

Sure feels like something is cooking.

Actually, right now it feels a lot like the 2018 $6000 level just before the drop to $3000. I hope it is not going to repeat that but the lower highs with solid looking support is exactly what happened then.

I would not consider "exactly" to be a very reasonable way of attempting to make predictions about the future based on past patterns...  

Sure, we could get another 30% to 50% drop from here - and that would be something like $15k to $20k depending on the severity of such a drop...

I will actually agree that $6k support was tested around 6 times between February 2018 and November 2018 when it finally broke.. and we got damned near a 50% drop out of that loss of $6k support that was a pretty BIG ASS surprise to a lot of us... and then the sub $6k lasted for a bit more than 4 months.. to cause additional concerns that the bottom might not be in and the shaking of weak hands.. so gosh.. maybe you are talking me into this?.. hahahahhaha

I am not going to get all glass half full and whiny about this.. and sure if the price goes down it is good to continue to attempt to be prepared (both financially and psychologically) for potentially extreme scenarios and sure, there could be some possible breaking (or at least appearing to be breaking) some of the currently credible BTC price prediction models in order to cause more senses of doom and gloom (of the masses), so sure a premature bear market (or even a greater, seeming to be out-of-this-world BTC price correction) could cause some more shakenings of the weak hands.....

So whether more "down before up" is a necessary condition or something that ends up happening should be something in which we are prepared for (both psychologically and financially) - but whether or not "down before up" ends up happening is something that I would be careful in putting too many eggs in such thinking of certainty basket.. so sure prepare to buy more BTC or just HODL through seems to be the better strategies, rather than selling - even though for sure, peeps are gonna peep... and cannot really stop peeps from buying high and selling low, especially if they have over-invested (and perhaps without hardly any plan except "getting rich quicker" than they have been able to in their previous years), and bear-whale manipulators might be able to sense that there remains more room to shake a few more of the whiny-ass cry babies who are placing more certainty towards down than it deserves (which sure could cause a self-fulfilling prophecy... until it doesn't).  

A further 30-50% drop would mean we're in a bear market. Then we should get ready for another BTC winter. But 2013 scenario is far more likely imho as there was no blowoff top. 

Regarding your first point.. perhaps "a further 30-50% drop would mean we're in a bear market."   Surely, I am not prepared to concede that such a drop in and of itself is sufficient to proclaim a bear market in part based on the consideration of a 2013 like double top scenario playing out.. sure the way these BTC price dynamics play out can affect whether they are labelled as a bear market or a kind of faking out or extended consolidation within a bull market.. so personally, I am not conceding "bear market" based on a description of some superficial facts (such as potentially short-term changes in price) without more details regarding other things that might be going on.

By the way, if we more closely attempt to make a comparison to 2013, we get a pretty damned quickie price top of nearly 3x in a few months, and then a pretty damned quick correction of greater than 50% and even going down into around a 75% correction and a whole drawn out period of around 9 months (for the up and the down and the consolidation) or so for the first half to play out and then another few months for the second 2013 peak to play out (at least the playing out of the upside portion of that second peak).  Several of us had been describing the two peaks in 2013 as if they were two dynamics, when likely they are better explained as within one kind of bull market exponential  period of the 4-year fractal.  Sometimes, we might not be able to recognize broader patterns or even appreciate their significants until either after they have already occurred or we have a few similar patters that largely fit into the mold and seem to better explain what may well be going on (even if the better explanation might not be definitive in terms of predicting what exactly will play out in the future - even if it might give some ideas for assigning odds).

This time we had about 3-9 months of a 5-6.5x upwards movement of BTC price but then the BTC price gets stuck in largely that 5-6.5x range with sure some gravitation up and then down for nearly 4 months before it corrects, and sure it comes down 56%, so far, yet we have ONLY been in the correction for 2 months, so far, and so sure it could correct some more (30%-50% or something) or the period of correction might soon be over, and even if there is some kind of pattern that does not exactly look like the 2013, so yeah, if there ends up being another top within 6-12 months of the mid April 2021, top, it may not matter so much how the fucking around in the middle looks, we might subsequently look at the whole period of fuckery (that we are now in the midst of) and decide that the whole thing was a bull market in spite some of the extremes or dragging out prices to play momentum, shaking of weak hands, shifting around of mining, trying to create a mining attack vector, purgening of shitcoin froth or whatever that may be currently happening and we are having difficulties seeing it while we are in the midst of it.

Yes, another scenario is that the BTC price does not recover for 3-4 years or maybe even longer.. but both you (serveria) and I likely consider those kinds of bear scenarios to be less likely, even though nothing is outside of the realm of possibilities, and sure there might even be a 20% chance of an early start to the bull market?  There are surely a decent number of others (perhaps dumb fucktwats) who assign way higher likelihood that we are already in a bear market.. maybe even assigning 60% or more odds.. which I would consider that they do not know what the fuck is bitcoin, but at the same time, everyone does have rights to their own  opinions and to make their allocations according to such opinions and part of the value proposition of any investment is to be able to appreciate certain aspects of what are low prices, even if a large number of others are not recognizing such relatively "low prices." 

If a vast majority of the world's population already recognized the value of bitcoin, we would probably already have several million dollar bitcoin, and there are probably ONLY a small minority of the world's population who actually are attempt to tailor their own allocations in accordance with a more likely situation that we are still experiencing undervalued bitcoins at these here $30,700-ish prices.

[Toxic2040]

Went back and looked at PlanB's original 2019 stock-to-flow paper.  Here is the chart I generated when I tried to replicate his math.  You should ignore the curve before the first halving, it's kind of arbitrary, depends on what you set as a starting date.  I used pizza day, but it doesn't really matter because the choice of starting day has no effect on anything after the first halving on November 28, 2012; that stuff is set in stone once you settle on your parameters.  I used PlanB's original equation,
ln(marketcap) = 3.31954 * ln(stock/flow) + 14.6227
Anyway, if there's anything to this s2f stuff, the next year or two should cheer us up.

+1 WOsMerit


I like that first curve..it has a certain elegance..I also think arbitrary points are fine..this is what we are doing..speculating     Of course it is a little concerning that this take on s2f is looking more like a resistance level instead of a support level

Below are a couple of charts showing basically the same perspective tho a week or so apart that illustrate what I believe has happened   We have seen a blow off top... actually a double top...but it was followed by a surge of retail and institutional FOMO

Its not terribly clear sad to say on the chart but I believe everyone will get the gist    I am not bearish...far from it in fact as I think you all know...but think it a good idea to remain realistic and keep a open mind  #dyor

D

[ImThour]

Date is 20th July, 2023. Bitcoin is  legal tender in 45 countries across the globe.
Michael Saylor is the richest american due to his massive bitcoin holdings. 1BTC is worth $131,500.
Crypto Debit Cards are the most used payment methods around the world. China started mining again.
Companies are now paying their employees in Crypto. All the prize pools in major sports tournaments are in BTC.
Future is secure, decenteralized, no inflations. One more thing, Bitcoin Fear & Greed never dropped below 90 in the whole year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Saidasun]

If a vast majority of the world's population already recognized the value of bitcoin, we would probably already have several million dollar bitcoin, and there are probably ONLY a small minority of the world's population who actually are attempt to tailor their own allocations in accordance with a more likely situation that we are still experiencing undervalued bitcoins at these here $30,700-ish prices.

I agree 100% with this. The only question that remains is when will the world finally wake up and see that Bitcoin is the answer the their problems. The world is ruled by the rich at the moment and poverty reaps havoc on much of the world. Places like Africa and the eastern countries but its not even limited there even the more developed western countries and Japan still have issues with poverty. Its 2021 and people are still homeless and do not get food when there is an abundance of it. If you do not believe there is a abundance of food just go to your local grocery store and check their trash. You will see that they are throwing out tonnes worth of food every day and that is perfectly good food and not food that a homeless person would refuse. Then there is jobs you are working your arse off for someone else and the lower you go down in the structure of the business they are usually the ones working the hardest yet getting paid the least. Its sickening that the average person will never be able to live a comfortable life because they will constantly be worrying about putting food on their table and if their family is well looked after. That should not be happening in a *developed* world.

That is what is wrong with the world and now that there is a chance for someone to acquire a small amount of Bitcoin and turn that into multi millions one day is getting overlooked by much of the world. I do not know if its because the news and the governments are not giving much attention to Bitcoin to stop people from finding out or if people are just not willing to take the *risk* that news articles report on yet Bitcoin continues to rise historically and set new records every couple of years.

[JayJuanGee]

that and all the other bs going on...makes one wonder if this timeline needs to be pruned or not...

Just to answer your question, ToxicMoxic  (I appreciate that inquiring minds want to know) - there is no need to prune nuttin related to no timeline of nuttin.

#justsaying

....if investors keep looking at bitcoin as if it were a legacy stock..they will get burned...badly imo

That is be called super koreck... therefore, you not be getting no arguments from me, especially on a super koreck point.


I might get pleasures out of arguing about other things (such as how many spaces go behind a period), but that's another story.

Hello gentlemen!

I've been trying to spend time away from here, and trying to forget about bitcoin for a few months. These periods are depressing for me if my mind remains bitcoin-centric. Better to spend time outside, enjoying the beautiful weather.

Come back infofront.

You must suffer in this here thread, just like everyone else... and for sure, looking at the BTC price 6-12 times per day, is a bare minimum requirement.  No exceptions.

or not.

I don’t need or want to buy any dip. I have enough bitcoin,

I have enough too.. and I do not want to buy any dip, but I do it.

If dip happens, dis bot buys.

If dip no happen.. that is fine too - even better if no dip happens, for sure.... but whatever.. king daddy going to king daddy and not much we can do about what king daddy gonna do.. except perhaps merely try to roll with the punches.. and ride this pig wherever it goes (credit to billyjoeallen)....

I pray the bottom is near.

Stop praying.. it is not seeming to help.

 

[Saidasun]

Fuck it I bought more BTC. If history is to repeat itself whenever I buy more Bitcoin the price goes down you have been warned.

[vapourminer]

Date is 20th July, 2023. [...] 1BTC is worth $131,500.

after dropping from $512,000 USD of course

[JayJuanGee]

No way! I got blessed by infofront's merit.
Thanks for making this thread at first place buddy. It's the first thing I look at while poop.

Infofront did not make this thread.

adamstgBit made the thread, and around 2016, adamstgBit was having continuing battles with forum admins and even getting into BIG blocker nutjob nonsense, and then in about 2017 his account got hacked, and partially due to his stubborness, he did not try to get back his account, so this thread went unadministered for 6 months or longer, and there was various concerns that the thread was becoming way too much work for forum admins then one day theymos just shut down the thread and received a lot of expressions of anger etc from members regarding such administrative choice, and thereafter, theymos agreed to conduct a vote to assign a new thread owner based on the vote, and infofront won the vote quite decisively, as I recall.. and he seems to have done a better job than both adam and also forum administrators in keeping the spirit of the thread and perhaps allowing the thread spirit to grow to fulfilling its potential better - and so far, knock on wood, it seems to be going pretty well - including that the thread does not seem to be highly censored - except some extreme shilling or abusive posts, and matters can be reported to forum admins through the report button for more serious violation of forum rules or report directly to infofront by sending him a PM for more minor suggestions or reporting - and he will consider whether or not your suggestion is worthy of a response or action from him.

I suppose not all historical thread participants agrees with the direction of the thread, but it does seem to get quite a few returning members during periods of UPpity BTC price action, if we ever might experience that UPpity BTC price action again?  who knows?

Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

$30,000 is fine, no problem.

It’s a problem for me personally if this seemingly endless slide downwards continues though. $30,000 is cool but $12,000 or something is not. I don’t need or want to buy any dip. I have enough bitcoin, I really thought we were going to $100,000+ this year.

I pray the bottom is near.

Are you trading frequently? If you do not want to buy in a dip I assume you are not looking to buy anymore at all which probably means you are fine holding on for the bumpy road ahead.

Personally, I believe that LFC buys fairly regularly on dips, but he would prefer the BTC price to go up so he does not need to buy.. but sure, he can elaborate further on what makes him tick (or not tick) if he wants to. 

[gembitz]

No way! I got blessed by infofront's merit.
Thanks for making this thread at first place buddy. It's the first thing I look at while poop.

Infofront did not make this thread.

adamstgBit made the thread, and around 2016, adamstgBit was having continuing battles with forum admins and even getting into BIG blocker nutjob nonsense, and then in about 2017 his account got hacked, and partially due to his stubborness, he did not try to get back his account, so this thread went unadministered for 6 months or longer, and there was various concerns that the thread was becoming way too much work for forum admins then one day theymos just shut down the thread and received a lot of expressions of anger etc from members regarding such administrative choice, and thereafter, theymos agreed to conduct a vote to assign a new thread owner based on the vote, and infofront won the vote quite decisively, as I recall.. and he seems to have done a better job than both adam and also forum administrators in keeping the spirit of the thread and perhaps allowing the thread spirit to grow to fulfilling its potential better - and so far, knock on wood, it seems to be going pretty well - including that the thread does not seem to be highly censored - except some extreme shilling or abusive posts, and matters can be reported to forum admins through the report button for more serious violation of forum rules or report directly to infofront by sending him a PM for more minor suggestions or reporting - and he will consider whether or not your suggestion is worthy of a response or action from him.

I suppose not all historical thread participants agrees with the direction of the thread, but it does seem to get quite a few returning members during periods of UPpity BTC price action, if we ever might experience that UPpity BTC price action again?  who knows?

Well, Bitcoin @ $30k feels damn good to me. I don’t care how bad the chart looks. That’s not how Bitcoin works.

$30,000 is fine, no problem.

It’s a problem for me personally if this seemingly endless slide downwards continues though. $30,000 is cool but $12,000 or something is not. I don’t need or want to buy any dip. I have enough bitcoin, I really thought we were going to $100,000+ this year.

I pray the bottom is near.

Are you trading frequently? If you do not want to buy in a dip I assume you are not looking to buy anymore at all which probably means you are fine holding on for the bumpy road ahead.

Personally, I believe that LFC buys fairly regularly on dips, but he would prefer the BTC price to go up so he does not need to buy.. but sure, he can elaborate further on what makes him tick (or not tick) if he wants to.  

I MISS ADAM & DA FREE BEER DROPZZZ LOL

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation