... bitcoin supply and demand in pictographs, here's an idea I've been playing with, anybody who's done basic economics are familiar with the
supply and demand curve
https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newSTR_69.htm
... sooo, estimating a long-term price trend for bitcoin would seem to require knowing first supply and demand curves
... bitcoin money supply is essentially fixed by the mining algorithm
... however bitcoin demand is a much trickier beast but there a several factors/trends that we should expect to establish themselves as the bitcoin network grows,
Metcalfe's law for value of networks
... the specific demand curve for
Veblen goods (includes monetary goods) that is unlike regular goods where demand reduces with increasing price
... and finally the
S-curve (logistics curve) for diffusion rate of innovation associated with adoption of new technologies
... as seen
... now if someone were to put those curves into a supply vs demand vs price vs time equation (and adjust the price basis for fiat inflation) I'd be interested to know what that looks like, especially when fitted with known price history to the present day
... my hunch is the dominant trend thus far in bitcoin pricing has been the fixed reduction in supply while demand has been relatively flat (early-adoption phase only), interrupted by temporary spikes due to mini adoption waves 2011,2013,2017, 2021 instigated by the supply shocks due to halvings
... my thesis is that the technology adoption and S-curve demand trends have yet to establish themselves and will be continuous over many years, unlike the 4-year cycles seen previously
TL;DR the super cycle of adoption demand is very much still ahead of us
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