Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

Even if Bitcoin was not "spent" much it would be useful.  Currently in the west people are "saving" in the stock markets. You can't use stocks to buy things, and trades out are taxable events for most of us.  And yet the stock market continues to flourish.

Same with gold.  Gold is property. And people hedge with it.

But Bitcoin is a better hedge than either really. And the world is *juuuuust* figuring that out right now.

And here is the kicker.  Bitcoin's properties make it the most natural electronic money ever.  It is DESIGNED for commerce.  So once people are in it they will start to move it around.  I.E. SPEND it.

So... that's where it gets interesting.  How will that unfold?  Yes, I *do* think eventually people will spend their Bitcoin. I am just not sure about the path to that future.

And let's not forget why some people think of Bitcoin as part of the "stock market", is that through derivatives, closed-end funds, and exchange-traded funds, such as GBTC, QBTC, BTCC, BTCX, EBIT, BTCQ, and BITC and a few more in the future, you can now get indirect exposure to the price and volatility through your tax sheltered or tax deferred accounts in your respective brokerages.

Not to mention the treasuries:
According to bitbo.io there are at least 1.6 million bitcoin in 62 companies, worth about $75 billion.

I hold bitcoin directly, as well as put some in my retirement accounts (that don't hold bitcoin, but an ETF that claims to hold bitcoin.) If you were an institutional investor, you can't really go wrong with the funds. And if you are an individual investor, you can't go wrong with putting a little bit into your retirement accounts too. It's still best to hold bitcoin directly / physically / private keys, but a lot of people either have difficulty with that or don't understand enough to do it safely.

[Zedpastin]

I hold bitcoin directly, as well as put some in my retirement accounts (that don't hold bitcoin, but an ETF that claims to hold bitcoin.) If you were an institutional investor, you can't really go wrong with the funds. And if you are an individual investor, you can't go wrong with putting a little bit into your retirement accounts too. It's still best to hold bitcoin directly / physically / private keys, but a lot of people either have difficulty with that or don't understand enough to do it safely.

I agree being your own bank can be tricky and cause a lot of people to panic lose their funds but this is made easier with the hardware wallets you can get. It does not protect from sending to scammers but it does protect from most software attacks and physical theft.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@WClementeIII
Price down today while whale holdings went up by ~13,000 BTC. Funny how that works.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427806214092644355?s=21



@WClementeIII
One ape’s liquidation is another whale’s order getting filled. Please refrain from feeding the whales at all times.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427980547817721857?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@WClementeIII
Price down today while whale holdings went up by ~13,000 BTC. Funny how that works.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427806214092644355?s=21

@WClementeIII
One ape’s liquidation is another whale’s order getting filled. Please refrain from feeding the whales at all times.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427980547817721857?s=21

By the way, my most recently developed thinking (over the past few days) in regards to whether there is a potential no man's zone, just like there had been in the $17,250 to $23,500 range in late 2020.. and my thinking is that our pretty severe-ass BTC price correction of 56% (starting in late May if you do not recall) and the fact that we largely stayed in such correction for three months (so far), has contributed to my consideration of a likely development of a no man's zone somewhere in the price range of $55k to $80k...

Sure, none of us can really know with any kind of certainty if 1) such no man's zone actually exists, 2) where it is exactly (if it does exist) and 3) how strong it is (if it does exist).... yet I am going to stick with such a tentative theory of a no man's zone having had been developed in the $55k to $80k price territory.

Accordingly, some of us have been waiting for $10k BTC price spurts that may happen in a very short period of time, which seems more than a reasonable expectations in terms of the capabilities of King Daddy .. especially in our current prices (as far as percentage moves in price etc etc) - whether such a price spurt would play out over 12-24 hours or even take nearly a week to play out, but I am having some trouble imagining anything like $10k spurt at this point (from $45,700) because that would cross us into tentative no mans' land... .. and then that means that further BTC price spurt would likely end up taking us to supra $80k... so seems to me that kind of a scenario seems too outrageous and too bullish and hard to say that we would be really ready for that kind of BTC price move, yet.. but what do I know?

In other words, I think that it is more reasonable and realistic to limit whatever BTC price spurt expectations that any of us might have to sub $55k.. so currently, maybe we could still measure such a BTC price spurt as $10k or supra $10k based on our yesterday's local bottom of $44,219.. .. which would thereby ONLY take us to around the mid to lower $54ks.. which is still not quite in to what could be our newest no man's land development price arena.

just some recent thinkenings out loud here..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1428032703740346376

[Zedpastin]

Maybe I should give up?  and stop trying to 'splain my lil selfie and just causing confusion amongst the peeps?  Maybe that is one of PlanB's problems, too?  Me and PlanB share something in common.  too wordy.. PlanB the wordyman.

I sometimes find it hard to understand what you are saying but I do not think you should stop or change your habits based on me not understanding. I enjoy reading your posts as do many other people here in this thread I am sure. I sometimes find myself reading your posts multiple times to try and understand because you talk about a lot of things at once. That is not your problem but mine for not understanding. I hope I did not cause you to doubt or change your habits because you are one of the reasons WO is great

[Toxic2040]

-snip-

just some recent thinkenings out loud here..

as are most of mine..so there is that..

------

some mid-morning charts


dyor

1h


4h

#whalelivesmatter

[Torque]

This is the catch-22 of bitcoin, and one of the more interesting topics of thought, in my opinion.

Some of the factors:

Some believe people will not want to SPEND a deflationary hard money, but rather will SAVE into it.
As long as purchases with crypto are taxable events it disincentivizes commerce.
Gresham's vs Their's laws... how does that play out?

My thoughts...

Even if Bitcoin was not "spent" much it would be useful.  Currently in the west people are "saving" in the stock markets. You can't use stocks to buy things, and trades out are taxable events for most of us.  And yet the stock market continues to flourish.

Same with gold.  Gold is property. And people hedge with it.

But Bitcoin is a better hedge than either really. And the world is *juuuuust* figuring that out right now.

And here is the kicker.  Bitcoin's properties make it the most natural electronic money ever.  It is DESIGNED for commerce.  So once people are in it they will start to move it around.  I.E. SPEND it.

So... that's where it gets interesting.  How will that unfold?  Yes, I *do* think eventually people will spend their Bitcoin. I am just not sure about the path to that future.

Everything you said is on target.

But one thing to keep in mind: The wealthy elite that buy bitcoin will never spend theirs as they view it as an asset. They will hodl btc and borrow fiat against it. The currency of the wealthy elite is debt (free money).

They mean to set up a system whereby "spending bitcoin" is for the plebs, so that the wealthy elite can get a cut of every transaction. Moar easy money for them. Also as the plebs spend their bitcoin, then more btc will flow into the coffers of the wealthy elite over the long term. Which they will continue to stack.

So with regard to bitcoin, should we do what the wealthy elite do with it, or should we act like the pleb masses?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@WClementeIII
Exchanges down 111,033 BTC in the last 30 days. One of the sharpest drops of exchange inventories in Bitcoin's history.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1428039375343046664?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Do you guys really think people will use their BTC to pay for cinema halls, paying their Mortgages and shit? No fucking way.

Wrong.

If you mine btc as your sole source of income you will spend a lot of btc and stack some.

Right

If you buy and hodl.

[Quickfant]

@WClementeIII
Exchanges down 111,033 BTC in the last 30 days. One of the sharpest drops of exchange inventories in Bitcoin's history.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1428039375343046664?s=21

Bull run from people hoarding Bitcoin incoming or is this in a couple of transactions from whales?

Do you guys really think people will use their BTC to pay for cinema halls, paying their Mortgages and shit? No fucking way.

I would like to be in the position that I have enough Bitcoin to not need a mortgage but if I had to I would secure a mortgage with my Bitcoin and replace it after.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It’s people withdrawing their bitcoin from exchanges which usually means after a lag, their will be a supply shortage. The price will then naturally go up.

[Torque]

OT: Relevant

[Raja_MBZ]

Since I've made a couple of wild & accurate predictions in this thread in the last few years, here's one more for y'all:

SP500 won't cross 4500 for the next few years (currently trading at around 4444)... and yeah, that'd not look very good for BTC either.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

OT: Relevant

OT: Relevant+

[JayJuanGee]

Maybe I should give up?  and stop trying to 'splain my lil selfie and just causing confusion amongst the peeps?  Maybe that is one of PlanB's problems, too?  Me and PlanB share something in common.  too wordy.. PlanB the wordyman.

I sometimes find it hard to understand what you are saying but I do not think you should stop or change your habits based on me not understanding. I enjoy reading your posts as do many other people here in this thread I am sure. I sometimes find myself reading your posts multiple times to try and understand because you talk about a lot of things at once. That is not your problem but mine for not understanding. I hope I did not cause you to doubt or change your habits because you are one of the reasons WO is great

Of course, I was exaggerating a bit..

Since I am a bit over 23k posts, you probably should be able to reasonably conclude that I cannot really stop posting unless someone were to pull the plug to the main server (whoops).

This is the catch-22 of bitcoin, and one of the more interesting topics of thought, in my opinion.

Some of the factors:

Some believe people will not want to SPEND a deflationary hard money, but rather will SAVE into it.
As long as purchases with crypto are taxable events it disincentivizes commerce.
Gresham's vs Their's laws... how does that play out?

My thoughts...

Even if Bitcoin was not "spent" much it would be useful.  Currently in the west people are "saving" in the stock markets. You can't use stocks to buy things, and trades out are taxable events for most of us.  And yet the stock market continues to flourish.

Same with gold.  Gold is property. And people hedge with it.

But Bitcoin is a better hedge than either really. And the world is *juuuuust* figuring that out right now.

And here is the kicker.  Bitcoin's properties make it the most natural electronic money ever.  It is DESIGNED for commerce.  So once people are in it they will start to move it around.  I.E. SPEND it.

So... that's where it gets interesting.  How will that unfold?  Yes, I *do* think eventually people will spend their Bitcoin. I am just not sure about the path to that future.

Everything you said is on target.

But one thing to keep in mind: The wealthy elite that buy bitcoin will never spend theirs as they view it as an asset. They will hodl btc and borrow fiat against it. The currency of the wealthy elite is debt (free money).

They mean to set up a system whereby "spending bitcoin" is for the plebs, so that the wealthy elite can get a cut of every transaction. Moar easy money for them. Also as the plebs spend their bitcoin, then more btc will flow into the coffers of the wealthy elite over the long term. Which they will continue to stack.

So with regard to bitcoin, should we do what the wealthy elite do with it, or should we act like the pleb masses?

You should tailor what you do to your own situation..

fuck the wealthy elite

and


fuck the plebs.



Be your own man.

Woman and bots count, too, #nohomo.

Do you guys really think people will use their BTC to pay for cinema halls, paying their Mortgages and shit? No fucking way.

Wrong.

If you mine btc as your sole source of income you will spend a lot of btc and stack some.

Right

If you buy and hodl.

Even if you buy and HODL, there is likely going to come to be some points in which you are going to start spending some, and spending some BTC is actually in your interest.

Let's say that you bought around 400 BTC in 2014/2015, and your average price per BTC was about $300. 

That would have cost about $120k.. and is totally not unreasonable given that the price of BTC was in the mid-$200s for the overwhelming majority of 2015.

Anyhow, if your goal was to get to $2million value for fuck you status, but now your stash is worth $18 million.. Are you going to give too many shits if you sell a few BTC here and there?   You shouldn't  -even though other peeps might be telling you not to sell any of your BTC.. .


Fuck those other peeps trying to tell you what to do with your bitcoin.  Spend some of your BTC if that is what you want to do.. you happen to be 9x over your own personal target, anyhow... which means you have excess.. and you can do whatever you like with that excess or don't do anything with it, if that is what you want.. that is what excess is all about.. having too much.. so you give few shits about getting rid of something that you have excess of.. there is no need to change your goals or to up your lifestyle or any of that.. unless you personally decide that you want to up your goals or up your lifestyle...