Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Never out of this feeling. It's excruciating.

My god that is so true. It's never hesitate for me though, always simple laziness. I only do my bitcoin purchases at the end of the day when work is finished, children are in bed, house work done, all that crap. Then I'm usually like "bugger it I'm too tired to log into exchanges send money etc, price is going sideways or its down a bit anyway, It'll still be the same tomorrow so I can afford to be lazy." I have missed out on so many good buys with this attitude. I do the same thing for heaps of other crap too, but those things don't usually lose my profit.

It has never really been my problem to feel that I did not adequately prepare for UP.. sure, when the BTC price goes up, many of us are going to contemplate that "I should have bought more;" and I am no exception to those kinds of feelings - however, if you have always been a bit aggressive in your BTC accumulation strategy (which I kind of put myself into that camp), then you should be able to minimize the mindset that you have failed/refused to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.

An example from my own situation might be helpful here.  

For me, I considered that I was in my fairly aggressive BTC accumulation phase for pretty much during the whole of 2014, and yeah, maybe because the BTC price was going down for the whole year there might have been a bit of a strange kind of an example, even though there would not have been certainty (at least I did not feel it) that the BTC price was going to go down the whole year and also to stay down for another year after that.

In any event, I did not get discouraged by the BTC price going down for the whole of 2014, and I did not decide to wait for the whole year for the BTC price to go down, just in case the BTC price might go down.. blah blah blah, because I had already made my assessment that I wanted to get some BTC into my investment portfolio.

During pretty much the whole of 2014, and really starting in late 2013, I had established a weekly budget for how many dollars I would spend each week to get BTC for that week, and I tried to make sure that I spent my whole budget for each of the weeks by the end of the week, and sure sometimes I spent my budget early in the week, and sometimes I still had money left towards the end of the week, so I would just use that up before going into the next week.. or maybe (since I could do whatever the fuck I wanted), I would authorize myself to carry whatever authorized money was left in a week over into the next week to spend that authorized money soon into the next week.

In other words, I am saying that I spent my weekly allowance every week, and there were only once in a while occurrences that my allowance would get carried into the following week.  

For some reason, after I met my BTC accumulation target towards the end of 2014, for some reason I still felt that I needed more BTC.. even though I had reached some level of satisfaction that my budget was not really urgent in terms of making sure that I met my BTC accumulation goal because I felt that I had met it, so yeah, because of my continued feeling that "maybe it would not hurt to have a bit more BTC, even though I have enough", through 2015 and 2016 I continued to accumulate BTC to a state of largely being over allocated, and so if you get to a state of being quite a bit over allocated, you should no longer feel inadequately prepared for UP after that time....

so, maybe the $100k question is at what point do you feel adequately allocated and at what point do you feel over allocated, and of course, those financial/psychological points are going to vary from person to person and from situation to situation..

I could appreciate a person who might just be starting in investing into BTC and that person having cashflow issues, and it could take several years for some younger investors to get to a point of feeling over-allocated - especially, if his/her cashflow is fairly tight.  

Another thing could have been that mistakes were made and that there was too much waiting around, and surely that is another case in point historical argument for the historical validity of DCA buying and also to provide some kind of guidance regarding how maybe even if "mistakes" were made in the past, that there is no real evidence to show that currently getting into a relatively aggressive DCA strategy might not pay off... So yeah, maybe now, there might be a need to double the dollar amount invested to something like $140 per week rather than $70 per week, because even a relatively less aggressive strategy of allocating something like $70 weekly (which would average out to $10 per day) would have paid off quite stupendously for someone that has been in BTC as long as you somac.. looking at your January 2014 forum registration date.  

So even a historical $70 per week that went back to January 2014 would have gotten normies close to entry-level fuck you status based on spot price (currently close to $50k)... which would be the current accumulation of about 31.5 BTC, even though I would still argue that it is much safer to use either the 104-week moving average of $22,500 or the 208-week moving average of $14k, and of course, using those more conservative BTC valuations would thereby require either close to 90 BTC or 143 BTC respectively..., and even with the BTC spot price being well over 2x to 3x higher than those more conservative numbers does suggest that those more conservative numbers are continuing to rise at a pretty decently strong pace.. which should bring some confidence that 1-2 years into the future that those BTC accumulation levels would come down quite a bit, even for entering fuck you status... or surely some lower level if you might not be aspiring to completely reach entry-level fuck you status.

Never out of this feeling. It's excruciating.

My god that is so true. It's never hesitate for me though, always simple laziness. I only do my bitcoin purchases at the end of the day when work is finished, children are in bed, house work done, all that crap. Then I'm usually like "bugger it I'm too tired to log into exchanges send money etc, price is going sideways or its down a bit anyway, It'll still be the same tomorrow so I can afford to be lazy." I have missed out on so many good buys with this attitude. I do the same thing for heaps of other crap too, but those things don't usually lose my profit.

You know the old saying right?
Procrastination is very much like Masterbation,
It seems like a good idea at the time, but...
In the end, You're just Fucking yourself.

I am not really against masterbation, but I agree with the overall point, especially in bitcoin, guys (and gal) need to act in some kind of way.. even if it is relatively minor and modest to get started.. so setting up some kind of a bitcoin related account would be bare minimum... but setting up such account might not do much good if no buying is taking place, so there will be a preference to go to the next step and even having very small levels of DCA is a decent start, even if such inclined prograstinator had failed refused to be aggressive in his/her DCA, at least there ends up being some stake in the game, and s/he only has ur lil selfie to blame if s/he was too whimpy in terms of the level of aggressiveness.

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[cryptjh]

The popular YouTuber MrBeast, who always gives money or things away, now gets sponsored by Coinbase. He got 67m mostly young subscribers.  The link is from his promotion in his last video 2 days ago.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1432806722817511430



Personally, I hope he one day will make a video where he gives 10.000 pizzas away, bought for one or two bitcoins.   

[marcus_of_augustus]

... anybody getting suckered into shitcoins on that artificial pump should be pitied

... when the hurricane arrives they'll be like the Tesla owners in Louisiana right now, electric cars haven't been market tested in hard times and are a fragile technology dependent on lots of infrastrucure and external support with many moving parts

.... for the financial hurricane that's coming you want antifragile assets

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

FU status has traditionally been defined as saving 25x your annual expenses. If you have that much in bitcoin, you could probably pull the FU lever, but I think it's safer to go higher and do that at 30x your annual expenses. And for most people who can't do math, just use 30x your annual income.

If someone makes $25k a year, then the 25x and 30x level would be $625k and $750k respectively. If you actually have 15 BTC now and you only make $25k at your normie job, you might be able to pull it off before the end of this year, as you don't need to cash out all of it at once anyway. You can take out 1 BTC right now, still have 14, and survive for a couple of years regardless of where the markets go. But as Number Go Up ... ... you'll be in a much better position.

If you are just starting TODAY, as many people are, then you just keep stacking sats. It will take a few years. It's NOT going to take 30 or 40 years. (it might take 5 or even 10). A nocoiner today will probably be a decent bitcoiner in 10 years, if they even had a decent retirement plan without bitcoin.

There is nothing wrong with your overall calculations and suggestions, but a major problem remains if you are using BTC's spot price to make your calculations regarding when you reached your fuck you status, which becomes hight problematic especially in its failure to account for BTC's historical volatility and seeming inevitable continued volatility.

Of course, you can value your wealth in dollars or some other shit and transfer your BTC to some crap investments upon reaching fuck you status.. yet I personally would question if that is enough, and surely those of us who are purporting to be bitcoiners need to be careful when we are talking about bitcoin in such a way that causes us to conceptualize the reaching of fuck you status with our BTC stash that largely causes us to sell most if not all of our BTC in order to escape BTC volatility... and personally, it remains my ongoing argument point that bitcoin's inevitable volatility needs to worked into whatever fuck you status formula that you devise in order to either not get trapped into becoming a nocoiner (or close to no coiner), pulling the fuck you lever too soon, and/or having to get too much reliant upon getting into a bunch of crazy-ass and likely uncertain other investments.

Yes, you likely recognize that I attempt to use the 104-week and the 208-week moving averages to account for BTC's inevitable volatility, and there could be some other ways to account for that too beyond what appears to be your merely moving the 25 years up to 30 years.

Looks like fuck off Thursday is starting off on the right paw.

Never heard of that nonsense....


 









 

[Dabs]

Yes, you likely recognize that I attempt to use the 104-week and the 208-week moving averages to account for BTC's inevitable volatility, and there could be some other ways to account for that too beyond what appears to be your merely moving the 25 years up to 30 years.

Yes, I see that quite often. Have you got a simple website to pull those 104 and 208 WMA numbers? When the 208 WMA is 25x your annual expenses, would surely be a good time to pull the FU lever I would think, as the spot price is probably a lot higher. Then you can simply cash out once a year without thinking about the spot price, as your WMA is always going up anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

regulators are coming down hard on centralised exchanges with KYC/AML demands. Dex swaps cost an arm and a leg for every swap.... As I see it, either I have to pay enormous amounts of coin for trading OR I don't get to keep my data out of the hands of these "safe exchanges" that get hacked every other week and/or sell my info?

Is that about right? Anyone got advice for me?

Yes.  I have advices.

Sell everything (your whole stash of 0.32761 BTC) and get out of this racket while you still can.

Yes, you likely recognize that I attempt to use the 104-week and the 208-week moving averages to account for BTC's inevitable volatility, and there could be some other ways to account for that too beyond what appears to be your merely moving the 25 years up to 30 years.

Yes, I see that quite often. Have you got a simple website to pull those 104 and 208 WMA numbers?

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

In the "settings" and then "indicator parameters" you can set your "MA" moving averages to show up to 4 different lines simultaneously, I set my numbers with 26, 52, 104 and 208, and then you can look at the historical lines in terms of the BTC price, and of course, then lines will be different if you click on weekly or daily or even 30 minute candles, so in order to see the weekly MA, then you click on the weekly candles.  I am sure that there are other websites that you can use to track various moving averages, such as this one:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/.  There is not much of a difference between the 200-week moving average and the 208-week moving average, except I am trying to account for the whole 4 years, which tends to show the 208-week moving average 1% or so lower than the 200-week moving average.

By the way, I do prefer to try to use those actual BTC performance numbers for valuation attempts because you could end up attempting to customize them more to what BTC is actually doing.  For example, you might say that instead of using 25 years, you will use 50 years, but that still seems to fail to account for what bitcoin is actually doing... and of course, averaging the BTC price over 4 years or 2 years will give pretty conservative numbers, so the 4 year one is quite a bit lower and so could be used for bear markets and it may well be fair to use the 2 year one for bull markets, and surely if you end up NOT wanting to use two numbers, you could switch your settings to 3 years (156-week moving average).. I did a quick look and the 156-week moving average (3 years) is at about $17k currently, and surely the 156-week moving average would likely end up getting crossed to the downside more frequently but it could be a way to get out of having to attempt to figure out whether we are in a bear market or a bull market.. maybe I will have to switch over the the 156 week moving average - even though the 208-week moving average is kind of safe for all seasons, too.. because it takes into account both bear market and bull market by just representing the lower (more extreme) of the two.

When the 208 WMA is 25x your annual expenses, would surely be a good time to pull the FU lever I would think, as the spot price is probably a lot higher. Then you can simply cash out once a year without thinking about the spot price, as your WMA is always going up anyway.

I don't know Dabs. There's a bit of a problem in your thinking that any of us might feel some need to cash out once a year.  Sure, there might be some desire in trying to be somewhat strategic regarding when you cash out, but even if you cash out monthly, quarterly or even every two weeks, there might be some utility in just getting the money as you need it.. but surely for accounting purposes once a year could be easier.. and surely, if you have some sense about where we might be in a cycle, you might try to be somewhat strategic in terms of when you cash out, also, but there may be some "I don't give a shit" also, especially if you happen to clearly be in safe space fuck you status, and part of the benefits of being in fuck you status would be not giving too many shits about some of the smaller concerns.. but of course no one is going to necessarily put more accounting burdens on himself, either.

By the way, maybe I remain somewhat bothered (molested, no homo) by your statement about cashing out once a year because I have also seen you make statements in the past about cashing out and living on that cashed out amount for 5 years or 10 years or something like that, and I just find that kind of psychology (or even financial management) to be a wee bit problematic and even lacking in confidence in terms of figuring out how to manage your cash in such a way to largely keep yourself in bitcoin rather than so easily defaulting into getting into cash (or cash equivalents) for extended periods of time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

By the way, maybe I remain somewhat bothered (molested, no homo) by your statement about cashing out once a year because I have also seen you make statements in the past about cashing out and living on that cashed out amount for 5 years or 10 years or something like that, and I just find that kind of psychology (or even financial management) to be a wee bit problematic and even lacking in confidence in terms of figuring out how to manage your cash in such a way to largely keep yourself in bitcoin rather than so easily defaulting into getting into cash (or cash equivalents) for extended periods of time.

Thanks for the link, did not realize it was already there. Also found the other ones that use 200 week and 1458 days (4 years?) ... might be simpler as a general gauge.

The reason for cashing out, is because most things in life are currently paid in fiat, and most banks will not accept payment in bitcoin for the usual stuff like mortgages, rent, groceries. Some will. Or you can use those bitcoin debit / credit cards. In many cases, you can probably do that and spend what you need.

I just find that having an annual or some other periodic amount (maybe monthly or quarterly) makes it easier to stick to a budget, otherwise, if you are way above FU status, then you don't really care and can do it any time, keeping in mind you're not buying a lambo every week or something crazy.

Elwar has mentioned having cash reserves of about 4 years. I've seen other finance bloggers state they have between 6 months to 7 years worth of cash (not invested in anything, certainly not in bitcoin) and top that up regularly. That also gives you what some call a "cash cushion", in that if its a bear market, you still have some cash left to spend without touching your coins (or maybe buy back some, if you're still in the game or want to play). 6 months to 1 year, I would consider as "emergency cash", where it sits in your fiat / dollars in some readily available account.

For us coiners, this may be something like maybe one of the stablecoins, if you don't like the cash sitting in your fiat bank account. Even the most bitcoin maximalists that absolutely hate shitcoins understand that stablecoins don't exist as their own on their own blockchains, but on top of "platforms", which include all those smart-contract shitcoins like eth, ... sol? ada? poly? tron? ... at least the stablecoins are attempting to stick to as close as it can to the US dollar.

[philipma1957]

Bitconnect, finally in the news. Those around in 2017 will remember that lending coin that wrecked many, so to say.



https://beincrypto.com/sec-lawsuit-bitconnect-founder-role-crypto-fraud/

When I was in Thailand my wife was selling BTC on localbitcoins. One guy mentioned that he wanted about $2k worth so he could put it into Bitconnect. I told her to explain to him that it was a scam and to cancel the order. She did, the guy decided he'd hold off on it.

And completely unrelated, a story came out today about how the Thai navy stopped paying their paid trolls which caused them to come out and tell people about their paid troll program to pressure the navy to pay them. When we were being chased by the navy we had the added bonus of those troll bastards attacking us on social media in the most vile ways possible.

Also, just 2 weeks ago news came out about how their police were torturing someone accused of a crime to get some money out of him, the guy ended up dying with a plastic bag over his head with video released of it and a full description of events by one of the police officers that went rogue. People told me I should just turn myself in (those same trolls kept telling me to turn myself in, that everything would be fine). I was known to have a lot of bitcoin, wanted for "attacking Thailand" (essentially) and they were assuring me I'd be "safe". I definitely would not be alive today had I not fled the country.

This is why I don't hold ETH.

If Mr V is grabbed in any country and held as an enemy of the "state" ETH will be shattered.

With BTC more then one person has been vanished and honey badger carries on.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, maybe I remain somewhat bothered (molested, no homo) by your statement about cashing out once a year because I have also seen you make statements in the past about cashing out and living on that cashed out amount for 5 years or 10 years or something like that, and I just find that kind of psychology (or even financial management) to be a wee bit problematic and even lacking in confidence in terms of figuring out how to manage your cash in such a way to largely keep yourself in bitcoin rather than so easily defaulting into getting into cash (or cash equivalents) for extended periods of time.

Thanks for the link, did not realize it was already there. Also found the other ones that use 200 week and 1458 days (4 years?) ... might be simpler as a general gauge.

Yes.. it will frequently be helpful for you to gauge in ways that are understandable to you, and then surely sometimes the differing ways of gauging could lead to differing conclusions, too... perhaps?

The reason for cashing out, is because most things in life are currently paid in fiat, and most banks will not accept payment in bitcoin for the usual stuff like mortgages, rent, groceries. Some will. Or you can use those bitcoin debit / credit cards. In many cases, you can probably do that and spend what you need.

I will agree with you that in current times, I do tend to project my cashflows out 18 to 24 months in advance, so surely there can be some value in having more concrete (rather than floating) numbers in there.  Guys (and gal) will find their varying levels of comfort.  By the way, sometimes when I might have an incoming cashflow that varies between $500 and $3k per month, I will end up using the lowest of numbers rather than averaging because I do not want to get caught with my pants down, but if the projection is further out, there tends to be more abilities to be a bit loosey goosey about it.. so maybe the first six months will use more solid numbers and then the subsequent 18 months might use averages that end up getting tweaked more conservatively once they fall into a closer timeframe.  In other words, you do not necessarily need to have all of that money already in cash in order to have a decent amount of security that either the money is coming in or you have a back-up place that you can get the money if there is some short-falls here and there along the way.

I just find that having an annual or some other periodic amount (maybe monthly or quarterly) makes it easier to stick to a budget, otherwise, if you are way above FU status, then you don't really care and can do it any time, keeping in mind you're not buying a lambo every week or something crazy.

For sure.  Going into FU status would not necessarily save anyone from stupid-ass decisions of 2x or 3x spending, if that might not be accounted for... sure, maybe there is a petty funds account that allows for a few extra hookers, lambos and blow every once in a while, but if all that is outside of the normal budget, then there would likely be a need to refigure the whole matter in the event that you might want to add those things to the regular expenditures and to verify that everything is still cool in regards to the various tolerances within your overall budget.. or what is tolerable or whatever over whatever time period that might be considered for such extra expenditures.

Elwar has mentioned having cash reserves of about 4 years. I've seen other finance bloggers state they have between 6 months to 7 years worth of cash (not invested in anything, certainly not in bitcoin) and top that up regularly. That also gives you what some call a "cash cushion", in that if its a bear market, you still have some cash left to spend without touching your coins (or maybe buy back some, if you're still in the game or want to play). 6 months to 1 year, I would consider as "emergency cash", where it sits in your fiat / dollars in some readily available account.

Of course some assets are more liquid than others, so even some people would consider bitcoin in their cash category based on how liquid it is, and sure whether you keep that value in a separate account and it stays in bitcoin until you need it might be another consideration.  Each person can surely have their own ways of categorizing assets in terms of how liquid they are and how volatile they are, and if the whole budget of fuck you status is already accounted for (let's say something currently like 200+ BTC), then there could be another equivalent of 30 BTC that is just fuck around money that is kept in various ways.. maybe in BTC, maybe in cash or maybe in some other assets that are somewhat liquid in the sense that some of the funds might take a week to get at and other funds could be made available within 1-3 days.. and surely, there could be some anticipation that the extra 30 BTC that are floating around is likely to last for several years (maybe 4 years or so with a round about budget of anticipating to spend about $100k per year) no matter what is done with them and whether they go up or down or whatever, and they are considered as a kind of cash floating balance that is separate from the main assets (the 200+BTC or whatever else that is held separately).

For us coiners, this may be something like maybe one of the stablecoins, if you don't like the cash sitting in your fiat bank account.

Fuck stable coins.

by the way, have you heard about this wee wido thingie called bitcoin?

Even the most bitcoin maximalists that absolutely hate shitcoins understand that stablecoins don't exist as their own on their own blockchains, but on top of "platforms", which include all those smart-contract shitcoins like eth, ... sol? ada? poly? tron? ... at least the stablecoins are attempting to stick to as close as it can to the US dollar.

Oh gawd..    you are going there?  I mean.. you went there?

This is why I don't hold ETH.

If Mr V is grabbed in any country and held as an enemy of the "state" ETH will be shattered.

For some reason, people seem to love Mr. V.. including states and financial institutions.  Weird, right?

With BTC more then one person has been vanished and honey badger carries on.

Another word for that is:  wait

wait



wait





wait


wait for it




wait











"decentralization"

[JimboToronto]

regulators are coming down hard on centralised exchanges with KYC/AML demands. Dex swaps cost an arm and a leg for every swap.... As I see it, either I have to pay enormous amounts of coin for trading OR I don't get to keep my data out of the hands of these "safe exchanges" that get hacked every other week and/or sell my info?

Is that about right? Anyone got advice for me?

Yeah. Avoid trading.

Keep your Bitcoin safely offline in cold storage.

[fr4nkthetank]

... when the hurricane arrives they'll be like the Tesla owners in Louisiana right now, electric cars haven't been market tested in hard times and are a fragile technology dependent on lots of infrastrucure and external support with many moving parts

I mean gas stations dont work without electricity either...

[HI-TEC99]

No one remembers who the buyer dude was, but I think the coins have been analyzed and it's been dispersed through time and all or most of those 10k coins are now with everyone. Everyone has a taint of it, it just goes back all those blocks ago.

Hah, same thought. You got a link to that analysis?

I can't quite find the analysis, but the closest I can find now is this article:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/beyond-the-bitcoin-pizza-price-surprising-facts-about-bitcoin-pizza-day

Jercos Eventually Sold His Bitcoin

As the Bitcoin Pizza Day holiday grew, it wasn’t long before Jeremy “Jercos” Sturdivant would be thrust back into the limelight. He’d give his only interview to a website called “Bitcoin Who’s Who” in 2015, five years after the trade.

To the likely dismay of current HODLers, Sturdivant said at the time “a currency is meant to be spent,” noting that the 10,000 BTC he received “made it back into the economy quickly” by the time they were worth about $400 in total.

...

Sturdivant added some other notable details about the transaction, which he says was finalized over IRC while noting he was just 19 years old at the time of the trade.

Anyone at 19 years old who paid $40 for something, then it was worth $400 or even $4000, that usually won't stay long with him unless he forgot about the coins and left it on some hard drive...

I read he sold the coins to "cover expenses" while on holiday with his girlfriend. That makes me wonder what those expenses were. Maybe he bought a few 20 million dollar ice creams.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/man-who-sold-pizza-bitcoin-24175725

Sturdivant used it to "cover expenses" while travelling the US with his girlfriend.

In retrospect a few of us have paid very high prices for ordinary things, like a twenty thousand dollar bitcoin baseball hat.

*drying off with $8,000 towel.*

I'm currently using a $2000 Trezor...

I have a couple $1,300 sandwiches

Dont forget my $33,000 iphone 6..

(1.8 BTC on feb 2016)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

Bitconnect, finally in the news. Those around in 2017 will remember that lending coin that wrecked many, so to say.



https://beincrypto.com/sec-lawsuit-bitconnect-founder-role-crypto-fraud/

[Toxic2040]

[El duderino_]

regulators are coming down hard on centralised exchanges with KYC/AML demands. Dex swaps cost an arm and a leg for every swap.... As I see it, either I have to pay enormous amounts of coin for trading OR I don't get to keep my data out of the hands of these "safe exchanges" that get hacked every other week and/or sell my info?

Is that about right? Anyone got advice for me?

Yeah. Avoid trading.

Keep your Bitcoin safely offline in cold storage.

Only if you are the one they call goldkingcoiner…. Yeah then 80X leverage trading is OK.

[El duderino_]

Bitconnect, finally in the news. Those around in 2017 will remember that lending coin that wrecked many, so to say.



https://beincrypto.com/sec-lawsuit-bitconnect-founder-role-crypto-fraud/

I have to say …. I did love and still sometimes re-watch the Carlos Matos speech

Wasaaa wasaaa wasuuuuuuup bitconeeeeeeeeect

And just the walk …. What a comic fool that was able fooling a full room of people …