Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

I just had a look at previous September dips during post-halving bull runs.

In Sept 2013 it dipped about 19% from $149 to $121 (on its way to $110 on Oct 2) before soaring to $1100 before year's end.

In Sept 2017 it dipped about 40% from $5k to $3k before soaring to almost $20k before year's end.

Yesterday's little dip is just par for the course.

Go Bitcoin go.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah JJG is all time be proud of    

I was wondering what happened to my alt..

there you are.

 

Just keeping in mind on your writing and knowledge, There are many like me who follow you as I follow you just not writing increased some knowledge. I don't know the details but there is greatly to learn from you even though mind takes a long time to read your discussion, many people are annoyed but I think there is numerous information available from there.

I admit that sometimes I do get a wee bit wordy (and repetition and muddling of ideas, too), but some ideas do tend to take a bit of time and space to flesh out, as well.

One of the seemingly great dynamics of bitcoin is that there is quite a bit of inspiration for people to share knowledge for free - and of course, we might well profit on a personal level by attempting to share knowledge and experiences (and to learn through laying out such ideas), but we might be able to indirectly (maybe not so tangibly) profit from the overall bitcoin space being somewhat better informed by attempting to debunk some of the bullshit, misleading and distracting ideas that sometimes come across some of these threads that are supposed to be mostly about bitcoin.

By the way, after a while many of us get better and better ideas about the characters behind the various avatars herein, and surely we can see some of their weaknesses and strengths - and even if we might not put some of them into our trust network, on a more informal (and perhaps subliminal) level we learn to know which ones we might be able to trust for certain kinds of information and representations.. and surely some of the guys (and even gal) that we might not even like can still be helpful in our own learning and grappling with this ever evolving space ---- (hey evolving-- but still very strong foundational aspect had already been laid by satoshi.. and there are a lot of good peeps who are assisting in carrying various aspects of the satoshi-laid mantle through time).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I think this dip is simply millions of poor people getting 30 USD for free and immediately spending them.
We will return to normal within days I'm sure.
Bought the dip.

Oh gawd.. .   


Do you ever stop demonstrating your specialty in various aspects of retarded?

Did you read that idea somewhere or come up with it yourself?  #justasking

I know that this board has lots of single coin people, but If they come down on 90% of crypto, bitcoin would get cut not in half, but by 70-90% and here is that.

I was about to send you an smerit for the above-referenced post froggie.. for your analysis rather than whether I agreed with what you were saying, but then you made this seemingly dumb statement regarding the tail supposedly wagging the dog, and fuck that nonsense... you lost all semblance of credibility for your contributions within other decently reasonable points that you seemed to have had been making in that post prior to your falling off the reality cliff.

I know this sounds crazy for many of you. But I wanna think further than tomorrow. And wanna secure my future. I am not willing to let these people control my life. And I wont give them everything I own. So better I blow everything I have into shit. Or find a way out.

Oh my!!!!

Yes.. you come off as a wee bit crazy or at least as if you are having some difficulties getting out of black and white thinking.

One problem is to take any kind of event that has something like less than a 1% chance of happening and putting any kind of meaningful preparation into it. 

So you seem to be assigning a low probability to a scenario that you outlined, and then you are putting 100% into preparing and acting as if it were true..   That's nearly the exact definition of crazy.

Even though attempting to predict the future and trying to plan for the future, let's attempt to get back to basics.  We should strive our best to attempt to put the amount of preparation and action into scenarios in proportion to the probabilities that we assign to each of the possible scenarios.  Sure, of course, this attempting to weigh various scenarios is complicated because there are so many factors and no matter what we are not likely to even close to exactly correct, but we can still attempt to give ballpark assignments to various possibilities and just do our best and to tweak along the way by reassigning and maybe changing some of our actions based on new information and even changes in our own circumstances (psychological and financial or otherwise).

TLDR:  Do our best to ballpark estimate various scenarios and match our behaviors to our best guestimates (which includes tweakening along the way).

[AlcoHoDL]

I just had a look at previous September dips during post-halving bull runs.

In Sept 2013 it dipped about 19% from $149 to $121 (on its way to $110 0n Oct 1) before soaring to $1100 before year's end.

In Sept 2017 it dipped about 40% from $5k to $3k before soaring to almost $20k before year's end.

Yesterday's little dip is just par for the course.

Go Bitcoin go.

Interesting. Based on the numbers above, we see peak-to-dip ratios of $1100 / $121 = 9.1 (2013) and $20k / $3k = 6.7 (2017). If this pattern continues in 2021, we should expect a huge ATH before year's end. Applying the above ratios, and considering $29k to be the lowest price point of reference (June's big dip) for 2021, we get the following:

Peak-to-dip Ratio = 9.1 ---> ATH of $29k x 9.1 = $264k before the end of 2021.
Peak-to-dip Ratio = 6.7 ---> ATH of $29k x 6.7 = $194k before the end of 2021.

Even if we assume that the peak-to-dip ratio decreases every 4-year halving period, we can still expect a very healthy ATH for 2021. The ratio difference between 2013 and 2017 is 9.1 - 6.7 = 2.4. Assuming a linear progression, this results in a 2021 expected peak-to-dip ratio of 6.7 - 2.4 = 4.3, which gives us the following ATH prediction:

Peak-to-dip Ratio = 4.3 ---> ATH of $29k x 4.3 = $125k before the end of 2021.

Of course, all of the above are just rough extrapolations of previous patterns -- nothing is guaranteed -- but the indications are certainly very positive.

tl;dr: Just HoDL and be ready for 6-digit prices before the end of 2021.


Edit: Picking June's dip, instead of September's ant-dip, as a point of reference, was a deliberately conservative choice (unless we go lower than $29k in September, which I very much doubt). Using September's currently lowest dip ($43k) as a reference in the above calculations results in even higher ATH predictions ($391k, $288k, and $185k before the end of 2021, respectively).

[DeathAngel]

Three possible outcomes of highs written above by AlcoHoDL. Any of the three written would be euphoric, to me at least. I hope guys that we get the nice ending of the 2021 bull chapter that we all (not proudhon) deserve.

[OutOfMemory]

If you hodl, it's best to trust Satoshi Nakamoto  

Hm?  Curious about this point.

We are trusting satoshi because he is dead, disappeared or otherwise not available and unlikely to return or for some other reason.

= trust in Bitcoin's Success.

While success is meant as a series of events, not a final one-time event. We already witnessed some of those.

[OutOfMemory]

Three possible outcomes of highs written above by AlcoHoDL. Any of the three written would be euphoric, to me at least. I hope guys that we get the nice ending of the 2021 bull chapter that we all (not proudhon) deserve.

We have to take lots of future (and current) resistance into account. If China wouldn't have jumped off and the ES chart attacks wouldn't have happened (let's pretend to be a little dumb and call it a "correction", right...) we would probably stand some $k's higher than last ATH.
As if investor distraction by non fungible bullshit and shitcoins in the count of thousands wouldn't be enough  
I'm grumpy, not because of the happenings, but because the fucking car will actually set me back a good $1200 (more than twice as much than i expected), and i'm heavily undersexed   (EDIT: #nohomo)
Gotta catch some positive vibes tomorrow, or the whole day may be fucked as well  

[Copetech]

As if investor distraction by non fungible bullshit and shitcoins in the count of thousands wouldn't be enough  
I'm grumpy, not because of the happenings, but because the fucking car will actually set me back a good $1200 (more than twice as much than i expected), and i'm heavily undersexed   (EDIT: #nohomo)
Gotta catch some positive vibes tomorrow, or the whole day may be fucked as well  

OHNO! Are the mini-oom's suffering from a bit of seasonal allergies???
Quick better give them each a couple Benedryl so they can rest soundly and sniffle free! 😜
(User warning, may cause extreme drowsiness, unless mini-oom's are classic ADHD/Hyperactive, in which case Benedryl should be exchanged for original formula Sudafed... but NOT that that ephedrine free crap)

Edit: Auto-incorrect dropped my "Not"

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Sara de simone
@SaraLadyCrypto
Believe in Bitcoin as much as this girl believes in her shirt's buttons!!
#bitcoin  #Crypto #btc

https://twitter.com/saraladycrypto/status/1435708170203172866?s=21



HODLsleep time.

Goodnight WO’s.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eddie13]

Guys... I set a small sell order 

@ $200k 

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

@brian_armstrong
1/ Some really sketchy behavior coming out of the SEC recently.
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1435439291715358721

It is what as known as protectionism.
Problems like this are the biggest barrier to BTC.

I did Gary's course at MIT online, blockchain and money.  Here's my takeaway.  He probably understands the game.  So Uniswap saying "we dont have control over the smart contract for swaps" probably doesnt go over well with the SEC, considering that they airdropped UNI, which is a governance token, mostly likely in majority to themselves.  So they control governance, therefore decisions, therefore the smart contract - contradicting their earlier statements.  In addition, they have 30-40 employees ?, offices?, etc, etc, lots of overhead which costs lots of pesos.  They have no actual "revenue".  Right there is a huge red flag for the SEC, to say they live off "grants" and "donations" is preposterous to say the least, considering the UNI airdrop.

Now almost ALL DEX, DEFI, services have their own shitcoin governance token and operate on the same business model - they act like a junior high school girl -> "What I say is true if people can't prove otherwise". Exchanges trade against clients while having knowledge of their positions, wash trades galore to create the semblance of market activity (NFT's, new shitcoins) and price appreciation.

Has anyone considered perhaps the reason for the dump is that someone got inside information from the SEC, leaked it to certain people who are offloading everything and shorting, knowing they are about to come down hard on what is probably 90% of the crypto ecosystem out there ?  I mean, look at ADA, they've been spamming the internet for months and months and years in a concerted marketing effort for their ICO and subsequent sales to the public.  Outside of the USA technically, so "no worries bro, not a security under US law", yet in practice thats not the case.

Saying something and repeating it doesnt make it true, some people know the game.  Gary Gensler is one of them.

To : Shitcoins
-Get fucked dickheads
From: SEC
----SOoN

edit: #buy bitcoin

Legit speculation IMHO.   But i will take it one step further.  The powers that be have only fairly recently realized that they cant stop what's coming.  And they can't develop their "Safe, Central Bank issued digital currency, with a built in tax system for those who need to be taxed etc" in time to beat bitcoin.

In fact, I think they are probably freaking out that one of the most important prongs in their current attempt to take over the world has been dulled by the upstart Bitcoin.

And they are going to do everything they can to discredit it, and damage it, and hack it, and break it etc.

And they will lose.

We are at the "fight" part of the Ghandi quote.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dragonfund]

https://twitter.com/Bart_Mol/status/1435257665710665728?s=20

Some dictator in a parastatal will be so furious right now that it will give them nightmares, but bitcoin will always give the people goosebumps.

[OutOfMemory]

As if investor distraction by non fungible bullshit and shitcoins in the count of thousands wouldn't be enough  
I'm grumpy, not because of the happenings, but because the fucking car will actually set me back a good $1200 (more than twice as much than i expected), and i'm heavily undersexed   (EDIT: #nohomo)
Gotta catch some positive vibes tomorrow, or the whole day may be fucked as well  

OHNO! Are the mini-oom's suffering from a bit of seasonal allergies???
Quick better give them each a couple Benedryl so they can rest soundly and sniffle free! 😜
(User warning, may cause extreme drowsiness, unless mini-oom's are classic ADHD/Hyperactive, in which case Benedryl should be exchanged for original formula Sudafed... but NOT that that ephedrine free crap)

Edit: Auto-incorrect dropped my "Not"

What the ...?
I understand the words, but i don't know what you mean. I tried a couple of times, but it didn't click.

[JayJuanGee]

Guys... I set a small sell order 

@ $200k 

Good job...   you damned bear.

As if investor distraction by non fungible bullshit and shitcoins in the count of thousands wouldn't be enough  
I'm grumpy, not because of the happenings, but because the fucking car will actually set me back a good $1200 (more than twice as much than i expected), and i'm heavily undersexed   (EDIT: #nohomo)
Gotta catch some positive vibes tomorrow, or the whole day may be fucked as well  

OHNO! Are the mini-oom's suffering from a bit of seasonal allergies???
Quick better give them each a couple Benedryl so they can rest soundly and sniffle free! 😜
(User warning, may cause extreme drowsiness, unless mini-oom's are classic ADHD/Hyperactive, in which case Benedryl should be exchanged for original formula Sudafed... but NOT that that ephedrine free crap)

Edit: Auto-incorrect dropped my "Not"

What the ...?
I understand the words, but i don't know what you mean. I tried a couple of times, but it didn't click.

This should help some matters to start to click OOM:






















and in case it still does not click for uie pooie, then try this one:

























You will thank me later.






Perhaps?