Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LoyceV]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  

I'm too lazy to insert the "first time" meme, but you catch my drift.

Obviously I enjoy up more than down too, but the way up is never a straight line.

[UnDerDoG81]

The dips are no problem you get used to it. But the US/EU attacking Bitcoin/Crypto more and more is very worrying. One false flag attack (Terror attack on the US financed with Bitcoin - I bet they would find a ledger wallet under a burned down and collapsed skyscraper ) and we are done. Yeah they can not destroy Bitcoin. But a ban in the US would mean a ban in the rest of the world as the bully of the world will force it on everybody else. Yes Bitcoin would keep existing. But I promise you, not even at 4 digits anymore.

[JayJuanGee]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

[Dabs]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

That's nice. I feel like the plates would have either stamped, engraved, or etched characters in them. Could it be 12 to 24 words?

[goldkingcoiner]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

[HI-TEC99]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

It might be just noise.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58632681

However, other analysts played down fears of a rout, noting that September is typically a bad months for stocks.

"Overall, September continues to live up to its bad reputation as historically the weakest month of the year. But that doesn't mean it can't rebound," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.

And Lindsey Bell of Ally Invest said any pullback may be short-lived.

"Much of investing is about sorting through what's signal and what's noise," she said. "While there is concern about the Evergrande situation infecting global markets, for the long-term investor, this situation may just be noise."

[gallianooo]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

[LoyceMobile]

The dips are no problem you get used to it. But the US/EU attacking Bitcoin/Crypto more and more is very worrying.

This doesn't worry me much. If anything, it's the opposite: if governments are afraid enough to try to ban something they can't ban, that just means they acknowledge bitcoin's potential.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent.

You surely were not silent in your whining about bitcoin's BIG blocks, but surely glad that you (fatty) have come around to see the light and act as if you were on board the bitcoin train the whole time.  

hahahahahaha

Go figure.  

Pepper Your Angus.

This crash is only just getting started. Sub 30k coming.

HFSP.

Only sub $30k?  What happened to sub $10k and sub $20k?  Those predictions of yours were just a couple of months ago, and they did not work out very well for you Mr. Nocoiner.  right?  Were you able to pick up coins in the sub $20ks or sub $10ks for that matter?

Billy was probably waiting for sub $20K when price was around $30K. Then at $20K, if price had got there, he'd probably be waiting for $10K, even though $15K would of likely been the low due to the 200 Week MA.

I was not speculating about what billy no coiner might have thought.  He actually got excited during one of our tests of buy support around $30k-ish and perhaps sub $30k and stated that he considered sub $10k to be inevitable, and we should have been (then) preparing our anuses for such... blah blah blah..  

Billy nocoiner is not much different from the other various stereo-typical trolls who have opportunistically come into this thread and spouting out bearish nonsense.. and surely sometimes they end up being correct during a longer bear cycle rather than a mere correction within the bull market, and surely none of us can really know with any certainty whether we are in a bear or  bull market - even if we might have our hunches that lean one way or another - and we surely do get a lot of throwing around the terms bear and bull market prematurely, to suggest that even bitcoin is going to change from one to another in short time periods comes off as nonsensical to a lot of us who have been in this space for a while, especially those of us who have learned to appreciate the power of the various longer term BTC price prediction models including both the stock to flow and four-year fractal models that have  decent amount of seemingly fair emphasis in considering BTC price moves (at least so far) in four year periods.

Now price has reached $40K, he is patiently waiting for $30K again. Probably at $50K he was waiting for $40K, but since chickened out of buying the dip after convincing himself $40K would break.

You seem to be giving that dweeb way too much credit in terms of his actual genuineness, to the extent that he has ever bought any coins and sold too much too soon and whether he is actually considering that there might be price points in which he would buy back in.

He seems to largely be here to just make negative predictions and to attempt to appeal to the fears and reservations that some weaker hands might have in terms of their investment into bitcoin.. in other words a typical troll/shill who either has no actual stake in bitcoin or is able to present his/her nonsensical FUD spreading ideas in a way that is separate from his her actual bitcoin holdings... even though it would make little to no sense for anyone who is actually educated about bitcoin to have zero stake in bitcoin (even though we do know that there are quite a few dumbasses who actually are that adamant in drinking their own inconsistent koolaide).

Sounds like a case of waiting for prices to drop $10K further during a correction, but then continuing to want to buy $10K lower.

Sure there are those kinds of people who exist too.. but I doubt that diptwat billynocoiner is one of those.

At $10K Billy would probably be waiting for $0K. This is why this strategy doesn't work.

My guess is Billy will end up fomoing in at $65K, after selling around ~$40K-50K.

Actually, there are folks who are going to end up FOMO-ing into bitcoin above $65k... maybe $80k and above... and sure some of those stubborn dumb fucks are going to take more than another cycle to play out before they get into bitcoin.. so maybe they would be buying in the supra $200k price arena.. but yeah for sure there is going to be variance in terms of these kinds of people who are currently knowing about bitcoin but failing/refusing to invest into bitcoin but at some point realizing that it is better to be in rather than continuing to fight the inevitable.

[OutOfMemory]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

That's nice. I feel like the plates would have either stamped, engraved, or etched characters in them. Could it be 12 to 24 words?

I was actually thinking of some sort of testicular protection, since LFC dropped a bearish comment. 
I'm not aware that he ever did that before 

[Torque]

PSA: My fellow WO'ers, there's a reason that the month of September has always traditionally been bad for stonks (and now Bitcoin is no exception).

Remember "Sell in May and go away"? Yep, deep pocket Wall Street traders sell off their positions in May so that they can go and play all summer long, take extravagant vacations, fuck off, etc.

So they come back to the trading table after August is over, ready to start fresh trading again.

You think they're just going to take up large positions again at whatever the current market price is? Nope. They are going to open large short positions first, and then short like hell, scooping up cheaper equities (and now sats) as the rest of the mom & pop retail traders freak out and sell. The MSM helps them out by spinning a convincing narrative of market doom and gloom.

Shit like this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/cramer-says-take-crypto-profits-cites-evergrande-related-tether-risks.html

So cheer up and BTFD.

Remember that for them, the stonk market has to end at least +10-12% in the green for the year by Christmas or they are losing wealth. And this includes Bitcoin.

[OutOfMemory]

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

[LFC_Bitcoin]

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.

[cAPSLOCK]

PARIS — Calling American and Australian behavior “unacceptable between allies and partners,” France announced on Friday that it was recalling its ambassadors to both countries in protest over President Biden’s decision to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

It was the first time in the history of the long alliance between France and the United States, dating back to 1778, that a French ambassador has been recalled to Paris in this way for consultations. The decision by President Emmanuel Macron reflects the extent of French outrage at what it has a called a “brutal” American decision and a “stab in the back” from Australia.

But why would France care so much? Does this adversely affect their military standing on the world stage?

Australia on Wednesday canceled a $66 billion agreement to purchase French-built, conventionally powered submarines, hours before the deal with Washington and London was announced.

Oh, money, grift, corruption and pork.

Of course.

What hurt them most is (apart from losing contract) there was no formal discussion on deal cancellation and Australia notified them just before the announcement, like 1 hour or so lol. Literally no one see that coming even Australian ministers.

The French as part of the EEC did not care when quotas for exports from Australia to Great Britain, a major trading partner were imposed when GB joined the EEC. Australia took a blow, and a lesson and now concentrates on trade in Asia.

European defense policy is in disarray meanwhile People’s Liberation Army Navy has 6 nuclear subs, 50+ conventional and rapidly increasing spending. Australia require the latest and best to help balance power in the region.

I believe India has one nuclear sub with 3 more to follow, all designed and built there.

IMO EU should be fine in longer run if they start pumping money in defense, they needs to be careful tho. Leadership is important, recently French presidential candidate for 2022 made some noise in favor of Russia and China due to this recent deal, don't know if it was only political speech or Far right in France really hate USA that much.

Conventional subs are okay-ish for defensive strategy but inferior when it comes to hunting game, that's where SSNs (nuclear -powered) comes up so Oz did hit the jackpot by striking this deal, considering few countries operate SSNs and has this technology. Its clear that Australia changing their doctrine but it will take decade to mature, till then they could also try leasing couple of subs from the USA similar to India (Russian sub).

Yeah but all of them are SSBNs (Nuclear armed) for deterrence /second strike capability. 6 SSNs (right now India using Russian sub) and 6 S5 class subs(Next generation subs, not sure if its SSBNs or SSNs)  are also in pipeline and construction is about to start so India is heading in the right direction and i think France is going to assist us this time, last time they declined to provide any support but now table has turned because of AUKUS alliance.

Well something is going on in the world, Sweden increased it's military expenditure with 40% and four new regiments and one new air flotilla is opening very soon, the firs, K4, is opening on September 24.
https://tekdeeps.com/sweden-gets-five-new-regiments-and-a-new-air-flotilla/

Very few people see it yet, but we are gearing up for the big one in my humble opinion.  France pulled their ambassadors from the US as we sent nuke subs to Australia?  Lines being drawn between the sides.  And the regular people like us will pay the price.

[cAPSLOCK]

Pepper Your Angus.

This crash is only just getting started. Sub 30k coming.

HFSP.

please hold on to the rocket stalk

I have no idea what this means, but I merit it.

[cAPSLOCK]

Anyway, interesting poll.  And I for one, look forward to the privacy improvements coming to Bitcoin.

Doesn't Lightning do it?

Lightning is a GREAT protocol, and does much for privacy, but I do not believe it quite reaches monero level privacy. 

[BlackHatCoiner]

Doesn't Lightning do it?

Only if you run your own lightning node and decide to never go back to the chain which seems unrealistic.

[serveria.com]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

The notorious titanium plates. How many balls have been crushed by them? Fucking legend.  

[OutOfMemory]

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.

That Evergrande news avalanche is shitty, though. MIght take BTC with it for a while. I don't care. Got no short term plans for fiat.