Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

I don't know about the bitcoin pumps, but the moon cycles make men sleep less good.

Does the men who wake up in the middle of the night during the waxing period buy the midnight dips? We will probably never know.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721052992?via%3Dihub

"Abstract
Using one-night sleep recordings from 852 subjects all living in Uppsala, Sweden, the present study represents one of the largest polysomnography investigations into the association of the 29.53-day long lunar cycle with sleep among men and women and across a wide age range (22–81 years). Following the day after the new moon until the day of the full moon (also named the waxing period), the moon's illumination increases, and the timing of the meridian of the moon is gradually shifted from noontime toward midnight. In contrast, from the day after the full moon until the day of the new moon (also named the waning period), the moon's illumination decreases, and the timing of the meridian of the moon is gradually shifted from early night hours toward noontime. Thus, we focused on the contrast between the waxing and waning periods. Sleep duration was shorter on nights during the waxing period as compared to waning period (P < 0.001). In addition, a significant interaction effect of participants' sex with the lunar period on sleep was noted (P < 0.05). Men, but not women, exhibited lower sleep efficiency (P < 0.001 and P = 0.748, respectively) and were longer awake after sleep onset (P = 0.010 and P = 0.890, respectively) on nights during the waxing period. All associations were robust to adjustment for confounders (including regular sleep disturbances). Our findings suggest that the effects of the lunar cycle on human sleep are more pronounced among men. Based on the cross-sectional design of the study, no firm conclusions can be drawn on the causality of the relations."

[dragonvslinux]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

There is a correlation between full moons around short-term reversals in price, due to emotional sentiment I imagine, so is possible that was the final dip. Will have a look and see if there's been a correlation in recent months and post some TA on it if it appears relevant...

[Dabs]

US Congress intends to regulate crypto on a level far deeper than currently understood―They will:

• Designate Bitcoin, Ether, and their hard-forks as commodities and regulate their transactions accordingly
• Introduce penalties for the use of mixers and privacy coins

So, let's pretend it happens, as commodities, what does that mean? In the US and outside the US would it make a difference? (Obviously everything offshore won't care as much, but they will still get affected.)

As for mixers and privacy coins, ... uh ... I don't know. Good luck with that. Innocent unless proven guilty, ... unless they turn this around and make you guilty by default.

Swapping from BTC to XMR or ARRR ... how does one penalize that? CoinJoins, and later Taproot stuff ...


On the other hand, if I want a new shitcoin and I don't want it to be called a Security, I'm just going to fork BCH or BSV and state it is a Commodity. Or fork ETH or ETC and use the new shitcoin as if it were a commodity.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1440084532875587587?s=21

[El duderino_]

Stock market taking us down again. So stupid.

Until it doesn’t anymore… At some point

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now 

This article was made just for you.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-up-over-seven-thousand-percent-in-five-years

Worried About The Dip? Zoom Out, Bitcoin Is Up Over 7,000% In 5 Years
It is easy to get trapped in watching short-term price fluctuations of BTC, so it helps to zoom out and learn more about Bitcoin.

[BobLawblaw]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

[LoyceV]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  

I'm too lazy to insert the "first time" meme, but you catch my drift.

Obviously I enjoy up more than down too, but the way up is never a straight line.

[UnDerDoG81]

The dips are no problem you get used to it. But the US/EU attacking Bitcoin/Crypto more and more is very worrying. One false flag attack (Terror attack on the US financed with Bitcoin - I bet they would find a ledger wallet under a burned down and collapsed skyscraper ) and we are done. Yeah they can not destroy Bitcoin. But a ban in the US would mean a ban in the rest of the world as the bully of the world will force it on everybody else. Yes Bitcoin would keep existing. But I promise you, not even at 4 digits anymore.

[JayJuanGee]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

[Dabs]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  
Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

That's nice. I feel like the plates would have either stamped, engraved, or etched characters in them. Could it be 12 to 24 words?

[goldkingcoiner]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

[HI-TEC99]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

It might be just noise.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58632681

However, other analysts played down fears of a rout, noting that September is typically a bad months for stocks.

"Overall, September continues to live up to its bad reputation as historically the weakest month of the year. But that doesn't mean it can't rebound," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.

And Lindsey Bell of Ally Invest said any pullback may be short-lived.

"Much of investing is about sorting through what's signal and what's noise," she said. "While there is concern about the Evergrande situation infecting global markets, for the long-term investor, this situation may just be noise."

[gallianooo]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

[LoyceMobile]

The dips are no problem you get used to it. But the US/EU attacking Bitcoin/Crypto more and more is very worrying.

This doesn't worry me much. If anything, it's the opposite: if governments are afraid enough to try to ban something they can't ban, that just means they acknowledge bitcoin's potential.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation