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Trust me JJG, I'm not salty about Plan B at all. Having lived in The Netherlands, I like listening to him and his opinions. If there is an interview with him, he is one of the few I can stomach listening to for an hour or so, even if he basically says the same thing as last time.
Well... many of us know that it remains a better practice to NOT be putting any people in bitcoin on a pedestal.. and of course, if we are listening to their human contemporaneous statements, the random boringness and even faults of humanness will come out from time to time.
Even Michael Saylor becomes a bit too much sometimes.
One question can set Saylor off on a 20 minute monologue over stuff that was totally not asked.
Fair enough.
Like I said, I hope Plan B's predictions are right but I'm not so sure as we continue to rise the cycles will be as clear to differentiate.
We will see.
Yeah.,. we will see. Frequently I assert that S2F is amongst the best of price prediction models, but for sure I take any of those matters with a decently large grain of salt.. and attempt to couple the model with other models and even other ideas that might be out there in terms of pulling and pushing forces that cause actuality to deviate up and down from the mean lines contained at various points within the model.
Do you think we will see a 200K BTC within the next 4-5 months? I'm not so sure.
I hardly have any clue. Recently, I have provided my assignments of probabilities both in terms of price and in terms of timeline in the below two linked posts.. and sure even I might waffle from time to time, and reserve the right to change my opinion from time to time, too.
This post that I made about Price from about 8 days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58307876#msg58307876My post about price puts supra $200k at about 30.5% for this cycle, but it does not put the end of the cycle at 4-5 months.. but suggests a 95% chance that the end of the cycle would happen by the 3rd quarter of 2022.
This post that I made about time from a few days ago:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg58346117#msg58346117Furthermore, I stated in that post that I have about a 77.5% expectation that the cycle would end before the 2nd quarter of 2022... but what the fuck do I know.. I am just doing my best to put probabilities on various events.
It seems Plan B has lowered his end of year expectations a bit as the year has progressed. Maybe 90K - 100K is still on the cards in the next 2 months though.
Perhaps he changed his expectations, and I would imagine that there are some elements regarding how much to expect when projecting out further in the distance compared to having expectations that put king daddy on a tight schedule that may well not happen. So in some sense there can be more freedoms to project BTC price without putting such projection into a timeline, and the tighter the timeframe the more difficult it would be to proclaim that the BTC price has to explode by 2x or 3x (which would be $200k/$65,500 = 3.05x) in a relatively short-time frame.
Poll
