Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

#Bitcoin is now more valuable than $TSLA, $FB and is the 6th largest asset in the world by market cap. Next up: $AMZN

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1457706508213497856

With a few differences.

- TSLA, FB and AMZN can print more shares and dilute the value.

- The shares and the value were first issued by one owner (person or group), then sold.

As Bitcoin becomes more and more of a denominator, then when AMZN or TSLA print more shares they tacitly increase Bitcoin's value precisely because it cannot be diluted.  But since the value of those shares is becoming more and more translated into Bitcoin - Bitcoin HAS to become more valuable to accomodate the continued *creation* of value.   The magnitude of this coming feedback loop is incredible.  And i't BARELY kicking in at all at $65k.

The fact that Bitcoin is THE coming base monetary layer has NOT really been priced in AT ALL yet.

... what you are talking about is called "unit of account"

.... bitcoin is far away from becoming a unit of account, first it must prove itself as a medium of exchange and store of value in the market for monetary goods, which it is doing quite well but there is more work to do

.... when it is widely traded and exchanged for goods with ubiquitous payment methods while maintaing a relatively stable value against a basket of physical goods like food, fuel, housing, transportation, etc over short,  medium and longer terms then it will become natural to account for economic activity and produce trading accounts using bitcoin in the bottom line

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[bitcoinPsycho]

FOUND

You rang?

if so, at least and give us the rationale, for example with some fundamental analysis or some techniques how to read Bitcoin price movements for the next 10 days. As a small trader I am very enthusiastic to listen to your discussion, not just mere speculation and leaving many questions.

Thankfully, Taleb put all the maths, science, and research into an easy to read 6 page, irrefutable paper. Bitcoin is worth $0. The knowledge of that fact is simply taking a long time to sink in because there's so much fake news about bitcoin and scammers. Of course, it's now apparent that more and more of the market is catching on, which is how I know for certain that bitcoin will not be able to stay above $30k for 10 consecutive days ever again. Every year from here out will see lower and lower bitcoin prices until it reaches it's mathematically proven value of $0.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Looking at the three day chart I am seeing (on ALL exchanges) a raging bull market with almost no volume at all.

I think this is EXTREMELY significant.  Because it means one of two things (or maybe both):

1.  The markets are being manipulated in concert at multiple exchanges worldwide.
2.  Something is taking the sell walls down at the exchanges but it is not buying at those exchanges.  Then the little bit of buying happening at the exchanges is cruising up to the higher sell walls, which are also likely to be pulled sooner than later.

As much as I have come to believe #1 is an actual possibility (I used to be VERY dubious about various paranoid market manipulation theories) I just do not see it being done this way at this time.

I know I keep saying the same thing over and over about dark pools etc.  But I cannot find any other explanation.

What this is doing, in my opinion is significantly muting the price action that would otherwise be evident along with the volume on the exchanges.

It is as if the world is playing Jenga with money.  The central banks keep adding more and more money to the top of the pile, and at the same time the professionals are pulling their dollars off the bottom of the stack and putting them at the top too by buying BTC (and real estate, and stocks, and PMs and watches etc).

All the while the smartest billionaires are coming to the conclusion that Saylor is shouting from the rooftops.  There is a nascent system that has the closest thing the world has ever seen to being a perfect store of value, cannot be manipulated at the protocol level, and is being developed QUICKLY into several networks, particularly a payment network.

No one wants the current system to come crashing down.  All of the current players are working as HARD as they can to avoid that scenario.  Because many of them have realized they are to heavy in cash.  This whole game Musk is playing with twitter?  I have lost a lot of respect for him, but I think he knows what he is doing here.  the TSLA stock price is made out of the house of cards that is the current financial system.  And that system is under attack as we have moved into WWIII.  But so far the people who have awakened enough to see it are still in the minority.  But I think Musk sees it.  It will be interesting to see what he chooses to do if he goes through with crashing his own company's stock price as well at the markets.

At any moment I expect the Mayor to come back in here asking for more of our pants.  (newer WOs won't get that one)

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

In other words, the market float is fake and getting thinner by the day. Whale traders know this and can use this to their advantage. Large whale bots are programmed to buy at predetermined technical indicators, but also have insider knowledge of the true underlying float. Blast off happens when whale bots volume buying overwhelms the float.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[_javi_]

Do you feel it coming??

go BTC. go!!!

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myifiXG1WUA

[cAPSLOCK]

#Bitcoin is now more valuable than $TSLA, $FB and is the 6th largest asset in the world by market cap. Next up: $AMZN

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1457706508213497856

With a few differences.

- TSLA, FB and AMZN can print more shares and dilute the value.

- The shares and the value were first issued by one owner (person or group), then sold.

As Bitcoin becomes more and more of a denominator, then when AMZN or TSLA print more shares they tacitly increase Bitcoin's value precisely because it cannot be diluted.  But since the value of those shares is becoming more and more translated into Bitcoin - Bitcoin HAS to become more valuable to accomodate the continued *creation* of value.   The magnitude of this coming feedback loop is incredible.  And i't BARELY kicking in at all at $65k.

The fact that Bitcoin is THE coming base monetary layer has NOT really been priced in AT ALL yet.

... what you are talking about is called "unit of account"

.... bitcoin is far away from becoming a unit of account, first it must prove itself as a medium of exchange and store of value in the market for monetary goods, which it is doing quite well but there is more work to do

.... when it is widely traded and exchanged for goods with ubiquitous payment methods while maintaing a relatively stable value against a basket of physical goods like food, fuel, housing, transportation, etc over short,  medium and longer terms then it will become natural to account for economic activity and produce trading accounts using bitcoin in the bottom line

When I wrote what I wrote I purposely chose "denominator" in place of UOA BECAUSE there is so much attached to that phrase, namely a sort of black and white thinking that until something unseats the USD then that is the defacto UOA.

And that thought is true as long as we are talking about the "top dog".  The UOA for the world.

But as people shift into bitcoin, they are moving their wealth to a different denominator.  Let me be honest.  When I look at property in Hawaii, where I used to hope to go (this was before WWIII really started heating up, and unfortunately Hawaii will likely end up in the group of states that aligns with the coming attempt at a new world order, or "great reset" if you prefer the rebranding.  But this is a 'whole nuther' topic of conversation lol)  I do not price it in USD except to make the conversion.  I look at it and say, that is a $1MM property so I will need to spend 15BTC to buy it.

So until BTC becomes THE unit of account, it is at least becoming *a* unit of account to us early folks.

I do not see this shift as black and white.  I see it as a continuum.  And though there is a long way to go, the needle is moving for sure.

[DaRude]

FOUND

You rang?

if so, at least and give us the rationale, for example with some fundamental analysis or some techniques how to read Bitcoin price movements for the next 10 days. As a small trader I am very enthusiastic to listen to your discussion, not just mere speculation and leaving many questions.

Thankfully, Taleb put all the maths, science, and research into an easy to read 6 page, irrefutable paper. Bitcoin is worth $0. The knowledge of that fact is simply taking a long time to sink in because there's so much fake news about bitcoin and scammers. Of course, it's now apparent that more and more of the market is catching on, which is how I know for certain that bitcoin will not be able to stay above $30k for 10 consecutive days ever again. Every year from here out will see lower and lower bitcoin prices until it reaches it's mathematically proven value of $0.

[cAPSLOCK]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

[cAPSLOCK]

FOUND

You rang?

if so, at least and give us the rationale, for example with some fundamental analysis or some techniques how to read Bitcoin price movements for the next 10 days. As a small trader I am very enthusiastic to listen to your discussion, not just mere speculation and leaving many questions.

Thankfully, Taleb put all the maths, science, and research into an easy to read 6 page, irrefutable paper. Bitcoin is worth $0. The knowledge of that fact is simply taking a long time to sink in because there's so much fake news about bitcoin and scammers. Of course, it's now apparent that more and more of the market is catching on, which is how I know for certain that bitcoin will not be able to stay above $30k for 10 consecutive days ever again. Every year from here out will see lower and lower bitcoin prices until it reaches it's mathematically proven value of $0.

Now, Mr. Psycho!!!

This is not the first time that one of Proudhon's entirely mathematical science prophecies has been delayed at coming true by the random walking irrational exuberance of humanity.  I am certain that "ever again" was not meant exactly as "NEVER again".   But more of an "ever again eventually". 

How'm I doin' PH?

[bitcoinPsycho]

entropy

[philipma1957]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

Well that is a way of looking at it.  Personally I say  teasing really does make people anticipate explosive finishes.

How about we slowly go to 70k Dec 31 and float around  the 70-90 range for most of Jan-June. Then explode past 300k by aug 1

This works for me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/JasonPLowery/status/1457732352914989063?s=20

This is a good one.  At the very first I thought this could be Musk's motivation for talking about Doge and Cumrocket etc.  But he kept talking.

That said, his ACTIONS tell a different story... hard to say...

[Biodom]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

I know what you mean....but the DISTANCE is typically not being measured in % (as your example illustrates).
The numerical distance between 650000 and 65000 (be it miles or mm) is 585000 "units", while the distance between 650 and 65 is 585 units.
Naturally, 585000 is exactly 100 times bigger "distance". With 585 miles driven you won't even cross the TX border going north from here, but with "driving" 585000 miles you would circumnavigate the globe more than twenty times.

I know that i sound boring and I get the gist of your idea, but i just can't agree that these two series of numbers are even remotely similar, sorry.

[d_eddie]

Looking at the three day chart I am seeing (on ALL exchanges) a raging bull market with almost no volume at all.

I think this is EXTREMELY significant.  Because it means one of two things (or maybe both):

1.  The markets are being manipulated in concert at multiple exchanges worldwide.
2.  Something is taking the sell walls down at the exchanges but it is not buying at those exchanges.  Then the little bit of buying happening at the exchanges is cruising up to the higher sell walls, which are also likely to be pulled sooner than later.

As much as I have come to believe #1 is an actual possibility (I used to be VERY dubious about various paranoid market manipulation theories) I just do not see it being done this way at this time.

I know I keep saying the same thing over and over about dark pools etc.  But I cannot find any other explanation.

What this is doing, in my opinion is significantly muting the price action that would otherwise be evident along with the volume on the exchanges.

You were kindly asked to stop, but you didn't listen.

At any moment I expect the Mayor to come back in here asking for more of our pants.  (newer WOs won't get that one)

I really hope to hear from the Mayor again.
He won't have my pants this time, though.
Fool me once...

[d_eddie]

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

The difference between 65/650 and 65k/650k is not in the ratio itself.
It is in the ratio between the numbers involved and the total amount of fiat in the world.

Q. Got it, daddy! So, is the whole amount of fiat in the world 1000x as much as it was when the corn was at 65?
A. Not yet, son, but they're working hard at it.

(Fuckin' legend!)

EDIT: I think @Biodom was meaning much the same thing in his latest post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation