Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).

I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.

Some seem to think this bull is over, and we won't go parabolic this time. Could be, yes. But I think we should see at least a few indicators (RSI for one) point to overbought territory before the fat lady sings.

Can you edumacate yours truly, and perhaps some others in dees here parts regarding how you might consider RSI to be relevant to dee honey badger?

Maybe you could paint some potential scenarios or something? 

Note:  I understand that my asking these questions borders on the invitation for you to roll your own BTC price prediction models in spite of our already having some pretty damned convincing, credible and currently valid models - but hey if you are able to weave your own models into the already existing and credible BTC price models then the more power to you.  #nohomo

Note 2:  my attempt to have funzies with this particular topic should not be construed as either my actually overly-weighting of seeming currently valid BTC price prediction models or to negate my acceptance that no matter what there is going to be room for anything can happen scenarios to end up actually playing out in spite of the outlines of the most convincing of BTC price models

so, this friday the monthly futures will expire, the price of bitcoin will go nowhere close to planb's prediction in this month. sad-panda.gif

If the events pass like you suggest vroom, then like any good scientist, PlanB is going to have to either go back to the drawing board or stop making such definitive statements in regards to what our savior king daddy is going to do within a given timeframe.   

By the way, the end of the month comes in 7 days (pretty much exactly from the time of this post of mine), so from my calculations $98k would be about a 70% BTC price appreciation from our current price of $57,600-ish.  Surely bitcoin can do those levels of price appreciation in that amount of time, but most frequently king daddy will tend to have a kind of ramping up of momentum prior to being able to perform that highly in that short of a period of time.. .. so hey, I am not claiming to be any kind of short-term expert except to just express a certain amount of skepticism in respect to such an outrageous breakout that might not be accompanied by a wee bit of ramping up of momentum first.

[1714171128]

1714171128

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

[JayJuanGee]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

One more year?  Holy moley!

You are really rolling your own models, no?

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

Yeah it sucks, but right now is around the best time to buy. In a months time those who bought this dip will be very happy.

All these buy orders are in agreement I think.



Edit: Bounced as I posted. There's going to be some pretty sore shorts soon.

Go figure.

Somac usually such a negative nancy and not negative at the moment.  What does it mean?

Asking for a friend.

[strawbs]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

One more year?  Holy moley!

You are really rolling your own models, no?

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

Yeah it sucks, but right now is around the best time to buy. In a months time those who bought this dip will be very happy.

All these buy orders are in agreement I think.



Edit: Bounced as I posted. There's going to be some pretty sore shorts soon.

Go figure.

Somac usually such a negative nancy and not negative at the moment.  What does it mean?

Asking for a friend.

What's this? Depth charts??? Are we in danger of doing some actual wall observing here? Outrageous!

[Biodom]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

This is unfortunate..go to a hotel, for crying out loud.
I spent a few days last winter without power (see Houston winter storm), it was extremely unpleasant as the temperature was dropping down to 40[^oF] (aka 4-5 in ^oC) inside. Almost nobody has wood furnaces around here.

[xhomerx10]

BTW, regarding inflation..around here all building stones (marble, porcelain, etc.) suddenly shoot up upwards in price (30% or more)..contractors are saying that this is due to the supply chain problems. Inflation is definitely outpaces gold rn, bitcoin is still able to hold on.

A funny factoid: meat-eating/collecting bees

https://gizmodo.com/flesh-eating-bees-renounced-pollen-for-rotting-meat-1848112925

Never thought that it would be possible.

 Zombees

[d_eddie]

India announced to ban bitcoin. Are they important enough to cause more FUD?

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/new-indian-law-will-allow-only-few-cryptocurrencies-government-says-2021-11-23/

Fuckers everywhere
India is the new China
They're banning bitcoin




#haiku

[xhomerx10]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

 That's bad news for sure.  This happened to us a while ago in the middle of winter but we also have a gas stove so we kept a couple burners going to warm up in the kitchen/living room, purchased a couple of electric blankets to help in the bedroom and thermal underwear and toques were a godsend.


 edit:   Hey!  Don't you have a pile of old bitcoin miners lying around?

[strawbs]

This is unfortunate..go to a hotel, for crying out loud.
I spent a few days last winter without power (see Houston winter storm), it was extremely unpleasant as the temperature was dropping down to 40[^oF] (aka 4-5 in ^oC) inside. Almost nobody has wood furnaces around here.

The portable heaters are actually helping quite a lot, so a hotel should be unnecessary. It's just turning into a real pain in the ass trying to find anyone able or willing to work on it. If there's no response to my various evening's emails by lunchtime tomorrow, I may have to have a go myself  


Still, cold air abounds.
Who knows when warmth next shall come?
Might not see Sunday

#deathly haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

This is unfortunate..go to a hotel, for crying out loud.
I spent a few days last winter without power (see Houston winter storm), it was extremely unpleasant as the temperature was dropping down to 40[^oF] (aka 4-5 in ^oC) inside. Almost nobody has wood furnaces around here.

The portable heaters are actually helping quite a lot, so a hotel should be unnecessary. It's just turning into a real pain in the ass trying to find anyone able or willing to work on it. If there's no response to my various evening's emails by lunchtime tomorrow, I may have to have a go myself  


Still, cold air abounds.
Who knows when warmth next shall come?
Might not see Sunday

#deathly haiku

dude...on one hand "hotel should be unnecessary", but on the other hand "might not see Sunday".
the solution is simple: put that plastic (or cash) down and get worm, seriously.

I would have done it in a minute last year, but there were NO hotels available since the whole city was frozen with NO electricity. js.

[d_eddie]

I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).

I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.

Some seem to think this bull is over, and we won't go parabolic this time. Could be, yes. But I think we should see at least a few indicators (RSI for one) point to overbought territory before the fat lady sings.

Can you edumacate yours truly, and perhaps some others in dees here parts regarding how you might consider RSI to be relevant to dee honey badger?

Maybe you could paint some potential scenarios or something? 

OK, some edumacatening.

I don't consider RSI to be terribly relevant to the honey badger herself, but it is a decent descriptor of buyer vs. seller behavior. Such behavior could indeed be considered relevant to the least resistance price trajectory for honey badger like creatures - although they are known not to give a fuck (or a ratt's ass, as someone used to say).

I'm not proposing new models or trying to improve old ones - but I can offer a rephrasening.

Even if we don't go parabolic before this bull ends - so, no blow off top, no breathtaking 4x-5x - I think we are not done yet. If we were, we would at least see an excess of eager buyers chopping wood and putting it on the fire that inflates the balloon. So the RSI should go up - meaning too many buyers too quick - if the bull is really done with. RSI is nowhere near alartmingly high levels. So let's wait the end of this month and let's see what happens after options expiry, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

... hey how about post some more info on the specific issue and maybe some pics and I bet with a few basic tools and knowledge right here you'll get it fixed in no time?

[BitcoinBunny]

Farewell Cardano.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lightfoot]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

Weird, what's wrong with it? If it's gas and the basso valve has failed they can be plumbed around with a new electronic basso wired in. Had that done on my 50 year old furnace, works fine.

If it's oil, and the line outside is not insulated then insulate it with a nice heater wire next to it and the oil will not freeze up/turn to goo. Dealt with that one with a friend as well.

This stuff ain't rocket science.

[lightfoot]

That's bad news for sure.  This happened to us a while ago in the middle of winter but we also have a gas stove so we kept a couple burners going to warm up in the kitchen/living room, purchased a couple of electric blankets to help in the bedroom and thermal underwear and toques were a godsend.

This is why one of the first things I got in the house was a fireplace insert. The only electricity needed is for two muffin type fans and I can run those on battery power for a week if needed. It's saved my bacon twice and really supplements the main heat system when it's cold and the price of gas is stupid.

edit:   Hey!  Don't you have a pile of old bitcoin miners lying around?

Another valid option. BFL Monarchs make excellent room heaters as they are water cooled and extremely quiet.

[philipma1957]

They want a race war.

This is not a race war.

This is communists taking advantage of those who cannot think well for themselves.

With the perpetrator bonding out for $1,000, I have grave concerns with the trajectory this country is on the precipice of navigating.

whats worse is he runs a person down with a truck gets out on 1000 bail is allowed to keep the truck

which he uses again to kill at least six and wound another 8  (not sure of toll).

Pretty much the same as I cut my girlfriend with a knife and you let me keep the very same knife while out on bail.

There are so many things wrong with the prosecution not grabbing the car as evidence and of course letting bail be 1000.

[strawbs]

Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it.

So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping.  But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning.

I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days.

Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug  

Weird, what's wrong with it? If it's gas and the basso valve has failed they can be plumbed around with a new electronic basso wired in. Had that done on my 50 year old furnace, works fine.

If it's oil, and the line outside is not insulated then insulate it with a nice heater wire next to it and the oil will not freeze up/turn to goo. Dealt with that one with a friend as well.

This stuff ain't rocket science.

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

I'm going with the last option, since I've found somewhere that sells a modern version: https://www.heatraesadia.com/products/heating-and-ventilation/electric-flow-boilers/amptec#productgallery4

...but trying to find an engineer to fit it is proving to be the difficulty - plumbers think it's a job for an electrician and electricians think the opposite - all in a rural location!  Everyone else in the area has oil fuelled furnaces, but that would require a complete overhaul of my system.

All a bit of a ball-ache. I appreciate the input from you all though.