Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

[1714040770]

1714040770

[1714040770]

1714040770

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

 

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

[Raja_MBZ]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

[AlcoHoDL]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

I didn't know chairs could think, let alone propose Bitcoin code changes. Must be one of the the new AI models.

[Torque]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" or "Amazon and Facebook are going to adopt bitcoin!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F model predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020-2021).

Look, I get it. We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months. Keep buying, keep DCA'ing. Hodl for life.

[shahzadafzal]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

Then we shouldn’t be calling it Bitcoin… let it be any other shit coin… I would suggest Buttcoin would be a nice name.

Executive Chairman and Co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen has unveiled his plan for Bitcoin miners to move away from Proof of Work (PoW), saying they should view it as “a net positive for their longevity.”

He argues it could provide a major boost to the share prices of listed mining firms “as any new code proposal would almost certainly have to include lucrative incentives to gain their support.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-chair-s-pay-off-plan-to-convince-btc-miners-to-adopt-proof-of-stake

[tertius993]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020).

Look, I get it. We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months.

Interesting thoughts.  Definitely agree we should look critically at S2F, though I don’t think he’s a plant I just think he’s wrong ... 😀

[OutOfMemory]

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

Yes and no  
It's one of the most retarded states in a middle european country. Full lumberjack territory  
But when you live more away from society, it's actually really nice. A lot of nature, simple people.
You could hike for the rest of your life over hundreds of mountain pastures in the warm seasons, swim in dozens of nearby crystal clear lakes, look at the milky way in the many clear, dark nights and much more. Winter is dominated by alpine sports, if you're into it.

[JayJuanGee]

-snip-

Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.

We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.

-snip-

Looks to me like we already had our 95% draw down... so up 10% and flat for a while before blow off top? I'm OK with that...

I doubt that any of us can tell king daddy what to do... and you cannot add up a 56% draw down and a subsequent 39% draw down to get your draw down numbers.. maths (and science) no doesn't work like that.

I was attempting to describe a situation that currently appears 'highly unlikely.. but still does not mean that we are for sure going up from here rather than down.

I do believe that the odds for up in the short-term are greater than down because it seems that we are still in a bull market (until we are not). ... and even asserting that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down would not necessarily mean that there is any kind of high level of certainty.. and perhaps we get something like 54/46.. well depending upon how it is described... and another thing is that there is a kind of current momentum bias in which last week we saw the correction down to $41,967 - but then we had a pretty damned big spring back to nearly $52k, but then again we find our lil selfies in the doldrums of half way returning back down to test $42k with BTC prices in the $47 & 48ks as I type this post.

And, you Copetech, aren't you in relatively early stages of accumulation?  So sure we all like UPpity.. but if you have a  decently long-ass timeline of anything supra 20 years, then what's the rush?   sure there are unambiguously objective benefits to getting to richie status earlier rather than later, but still early stage BTC accumulators can merely just continue to accumulate more BTC than they had speculated that they were going to be able to.

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I think another issue with PlanB is the assumption that there will always be "a bear market -80% draw down" from every market top.

PlanB is not presuming that.. .He presumes his model is going to break in terms of the cycles. and he believes that his model is unlikely to break this cycle but could break the next cycle or the one after that... and he has recently had a kind of hardon for property currently being more scarce than bitcoin, so he is kind of getting into some nonsense comparisons of property as a store of value, as if property were just on another spectrum of gold.. .. and yeah, maybe even I am characterizing PlanB to be even more crazy than he is, even while I do believe that his models are amongst the best of frameworks, even if he goes on various crazy interpretations from time to time.... but I still doubt that he is presuming that outrageous corrections of 80% have to happen, even while he acknowledges that they have happened... and overshooting does seem to contribute to them having decent odds of happening again.

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

I agree with your overall point, and I doubt that there are any bitcoin math and science "experts" out there who are going to be given very high likelihood to ongoing continued extreme corrections in the longer time frames....for the reasons that you assert.. it is harder and harder (more capital intense) to attempt to move markets in extreme ways as they get bigger, even if there is a variety of leveraging tools, even proudhon don't do that.. hahahahaha. .I wouldn't wanna put words into that donkey's mouth because for sure his maths/sciences is out of this world.

Oculus should pay me 10 BTC for writing that.

You don't charge much.....

now do you?

 

[Hueristic]

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I coined what I consider a pretty cool saying on the subject.


When you speak in absolutes, you are Always wrong.

[LoyceV]

Is there any exchange that I can sell BCH on and easily withdraw to my bank account?

Kraken. But (and this warning might apply to more HODLers): don't forget that BSV and BCH-A (now Ecash) don't have replay protection. I've seen people lose quite of bit of money when their other shitforks moved together with their BCH, and usually exchanges won't recover cross chain deposits for you.
A very small amount of split dust on each address on each chain is enough to enforce replay protection, but you need to do that before moving your forkcoins. Then sell the forks

[El duderino_]

@Torque

I’m 50/50 on you …. Otherwise it was merited heavily

Sorry Sir

But there are max amount per 30days and I’m on that max for you currently

Though I do like the model and the way of thinking behind it.

[Hueristic]

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

Also the added liquidity (derivative markets) will peak at a certain point and then taper off in proportion to the cap.

[LoyceV]

Congratulations Joe Biden.

November 6.8% inflation based on certain CPI products.

Biden's response: "That was four or five days ago!".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

I am with AlcoHoDL on this one... regarding how there is any kind of relevance to BTC's consensual direction.. and surely even you are seeming to recognize the absurdity of the whole matter (going by your "lol" commentary). 

One of the misleading and even deceptive aspects is for a variety of shitcoiners and Bitcoin FUDders to actually consider that there is any kind of snowball's chance in hell that bitcoin would actually move away from proof of work at all..   Even you, Raja, likely recognize that proof of work is the actual invention/contribution of bitcoin that causes it to be so god-damned powerful and difficult to defeat in any kind of way... .. so yeah, there are a lot of newbies, ignoramuses and/or fud spreaders who are just going into looney lala land if they believe that proof of work is actually on the table as "changeable" in any kind of direction that they are proposing... in other words, let's put down the gauntlets here and really see how many actual bitcoiners (people who actually recognize and appreciate what bitcoin is and what it is doing) will tell the disingenuous misleading dweebs to fuck off.

On the actual topic of BTC stackening.. and particularly the stackening of uie-pooie Raja...  can you see an opportunity to buy some or all of your BTC back (perhaps as much as 0.21) from your last summer (2021) sale?   or?  are you still waiting for BTC's spot price to meet the 200-week moving average (currently the 200-week moving average is slightly more than $18k)?

If you are waiting for BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average, then your odds of success would be quite a bit higher in a bear market, and still seems to me that we are not in a bear market - even though assessments can reasonably differ, and subsequently I could be proven wrong concerning where we are at, currently...

I would think that many of us (in these here parts of the WO) consider that at some point you are likely to lose your opportunity to buy back your BTC (your whole BIG-ass stash of 0.21) for less than $55k because if we get decently-sized UPpity especially getting into the 6 digits (probably not going to happen in 2021, but 1st three quarters of 2022 still seem decently in play), then even if BTC spot price does end up subsequently getting down to the 200-week moving average, then such event would likely be at a BTC price that is higher than $55k...  .. just saying.. and surely nothing is guaranteed in Bitcoinlandia...

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I coined what I consider a pretty cool saying on the subject.


When you speak in absolutes, you are Always wrong.

Hahahaha

Good one.

It's almost like: "never say never."

[cygan]

Short-term volatility > long-term debasement

https://twitter.com/LinaSeiche/status/1469388205682311171

[JayJuanGee]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

That's bullshit Torque.  The ideas that PlanB built upon were already very present...  PlanB put already existing ideas into a model in which he plotted out the data and said the same things that people were already saying.. he just put it in a package that caused it to be way more understandable.. even causing some people (are you one of them) who speculated that he was saying something new and innovative.

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" or "Amazon and Facebook are going to adopt bitcoin!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F model predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020-2021).

Well that's true.  There are always outrageously bullish ideas out there, and of course, those kinds of outrageously bullish ideas are going to have more resonance when the BTC price is going up.. but those kinds of outrageously bullish ideas are always out there... even during the doldrums of bear markets.. but they do not resonate very much during the doldrums of bear markets.

Look, I get it.

For sure, you get some aspect of a lot of these matters, but you have a tendency to go way the hell out there with your bullshit conspiracy theories... and sure maybe every once in a while there is more truth to it than what would appear, but you do seem to love the outlandish conspiracy theories and to downplay some of the more normal explanations that should also contribute to what is happening.. besides the ever-present conspiracy angle that you seem to like to harp upon.

We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

I suppose that you are not really wrong about people being inclined to want to gamble and want to be gullible and tend to fail/refuse to adequately engage/practice risk management.  Furthermore there are people who take advantage of aspects of human nature... . but you are taking this a bit far in terms of trying to suggest that everyone a lemming.. and yeah, maybe we have to go back to the 80/20 rule and surely even sometimes those in the 20% will also get sucked into some of the same traps before figuring out that "it's a trap!!!"  I have been lured into several traps in my years of living (it's a never ending phenomena), and frequently I have to keep my guards up from getting lured into additional traps - even after feeling like through the years, I have learned about a lot of the various kinds of traps.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

For sure, we should be taking any and all information with a decently-sized grain of salt.. .. and surely you are going a bit overboard on this...    but hey.. you do you.   

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months. Keep buying, keep DCA'ing. Hodl for life.

Cannot really disagree that everyone needs to get to a position in which they both figure out how much bitcoin to accumulate and then to get to their target, which may well include a certain amount of overallocation.. and also recognizing and appreciating that bitcoin is likely the best asset class...especially in current times and likely into the future, too.  There may well be some variations in regards to how to manage BTC once reaching target accumulation levels or even overallocations.. so it would not necessarily be correct to assert that all people would be best served by overly focusing ONLY on bitcoin.... but I understand and largely agree with your suggestion that peeps prioritize their bitcoins and figure out how to cause bitcoin to be a kind of priority in their lives.. even if there are going to be varying levels of adoption for normies including nocoiners, precoiners and persons with varying levels of already existing BTC accumulation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation