Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

-snip-

Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.

We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.

-snip-

Looks to me like we already had our 95% draw down... so up 10% and flat for a while before blow off top? I'm OK with that...

[Torque]

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I think another issue with PlanB is the assumption that there will always be "a bear market -80% draw down" from every market top.

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

[El duderino_]

Very correct @Torque

[BitcoinBunny]

The question Meta really needs to address:

If 3 beautiful whores can barely keep me entertained in VR for more than 15 minutes why would I ever want to use that shit to watch Zuckerberg's face and his pathetic sidekick products and a bunch of garbage NFT asshole pieces of crap?

Are you talking about the Oculus Quest? I read somewhere that by purchasing it you're not actually buying anything, but rather, you're selling your body & soul to Zuckerberg. The thing costs more to make that what it's "selling" for -- guess what (who) the product is.

BTW, is VR pr0n nice? I've never had the experience...

VR pr0n definitely has its moments I would say. It's better than I thought it would be.
Only used a shitty Oculus Go but at least that meant old Zuckface couldn't see what I was watching as it doesn't need a FB login (though I believe that is changing for Oculus Quest 2). No idea if 8K is worth it. I've heard conflicting reports.

I actually think the best videos are when it simulates a darkish room environment like a strip joint and you watch in darkness (the first VR video I ever saw was Jizzles - Disco Bitch about 3 years ago I think. My initial reaction was "wow!" - especially when it seems the girl is looking straight into your eyes but that novelty sort of wears off). It really reminded me of being in a real stripclub or whorehouse.  
There's only been very, very few videos I've seen that reached that sort of atmosphere. Part of the problem is probably when the girls start talking crap it sort of ruins things (like in real life). The cosplay stuff initially seemed an interesting idea to me but quite boring in execution in reality.

But definitely try VRP if you are interested and without investing much money / time / effort.

Oculus should pay me 10 BTC for writing that.

[OutOfMemory]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

 

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

[AlcoHoDL]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

I didn't know chairs could think, let alone propose Bitcoin code changes. Must be one of the the new AI models.

[Torque]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" or "Amazon and Facebook are going to adopt bitcoin!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F model predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020-2021).

Look, I get it. We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months. Keep buying, keep DCA'ing. Hodl for life.

[shahzadafzal]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

Then we shouldn’t be calling it Bitcoin… let it be any other shit coin… I would suggest Buttcoin would be a nice name.

Executive Chairman and Co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen has unveiled his plan for Bitcoin miners to move away from Proof of Work (PoW), saying they should view it as “a net positive for their longevity.”

He argues it could provide a major boost to the share prices of listed mining firms “as any new code proposal would almost certainly have to include lucrative incentives to gain their support.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-chair-s-pay-off-plan-to-convince-btc-miners-to-adopt-proof-of-stake

[tertius993]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020).

Look, I get it. We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months.

Interesting thoughts.  Definitely agree we should look critically at S2F, though I don’t think he’s a plant I just think he’s wrong ... 😀

[OutOfMemory]

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

Yes and no  
It's one of the most retarded states in a middle european country. Full lumberjack territory  
But when you live more away from society, it's actually really nice. A lot of nature, simple people.
You could hike for the rest of your life over hundreds of mountain pastures in the warm seasons, swim in dozens of nearby crystal clear lakes, look at the milky way in the many clear, dark nights and much more. Winter is dominated by alpine sports, if you're into it.

[JayJuanGee]

-snip-

Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.

We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.

-snip-

Looks to me like we already had our 95% draw down... so up 10% and flat for a while before blow off top? I'm OK with that...

I doubt that any of us can tell king daddy what to do... and you cannot add up a 56% draw down and a subsequent 39% draw down to get your draw down numbers.. maths (and science) no doesn't work like that.

I was attempting to describe a situation that currently appears 'highly unlikely.. but still does not mean that we are for sure going up from here rather than down.

I do believe that the odds for up in the short-term are greater than down because it seems that we are still in a bull market (until we are not). ... and even asserting that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down would not necessarily mean that there is any kind of high level of certainty.. and perhaps we get something like 54/46.. well depending upon how it is described... and another thing is that there is a kind of current momentum bias in which last week we saw the correction down to $41,967 - but then we had a pretty damned big spring back to nearly $52k, but then again we find our lil selfies in the doldrums of half way returning back down to test $42k with BTC prices in the $47 & 48ks as I type this post.

And, you Copetech, aren't you in relatively early stages of accumulation?  So sure we all like UPpity.. but if you have a  decently long-ass timeline of anything supra 20 years, then what's the rush?   sure there are unambiguously objective benefits to getting to richie status earlier rather than later, but still early stage BTC accumulators can merely just continue to accumulate more BTC than they had speculated that they were going to be able to.

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I think another issue with PlanB is the assumption that there will always be "a bear market -80% draw down" from every market top.

PlanB is not presuming that.. .He presumes his model is going to break in terms of the cycles. and he believes that his model is unlikely to break this cycle but could break the next cycle or the one after that... and he has recently had a kind of hardon for property currently being more scarce than bitcoin, so he is kind of getting into some nonsense comparisons of property as a store of value, as if property were just on another spectrum of gold.. .. and yeah, maybe even I am characterizing PlanB to be even more crazy than he is, even while I do believe that his models are amongst the best of frameworks, even if he goes on various crazy interpretations from time to time.... but I still doubt that he is presuming that outrageous corrections of 80% have to happen, even while he acknowledges that they have happened... and overshooting does seem to contribute to them having decent odds of happening again.

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

I agree with your overall point, and I doubt that there are any bitcoin math and science "experts" out there who are going to be given very high likelihood to ongoing continued extreme corrections in the longer time frames....for the reasons that you assert.. it is harder and harder (more capital intense) to attempt to move markets in extreme ways as they get bigger, even if there is a variety of leveraging tools, even proudhon don't do that.. hahahahaha. .I wouldn't wanna put words into that donkey's mouth because for sure his maths/sciences is out of this world.

Oculus should pay me 10 BTC for writing that.

You don't charge much.....

now do you?

 

[Hueristic]

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I coined what I consider a pretty cool saying on the subject.


When you speak in absolutes, you are Always wrong.

[LoyceV]

Is there any exchange that I can sell BCH on and easily withdraw to my bank account?

Kraken. But (and this warning might apply to more HODLers): don't forget that BSV and BCH-A (now Ecash) don't have replay protection. I've seen people lose quite of bit of money when their other shitforks moved together with their BCH, and usually exchanges won't recover cross chain deposits for you.
A very small amount of split dust on each address on each chain is enough to enforce replay protection, but you need to do that before moving your forkcoins. Then sell the forks

[El duderino_]

@Torque

I’m 50/50 on you …. Otherwise it was merited heavily

Sorry Sir

But there are max amount per 30days and I’m on that max for you currently

Though I do like the model and the way of thinking behind it.

[Hueristic]

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

Also the added liquidity (derivative markets) will peak at a certain point and then taper off in proportion to the cap.

[LoyceV]

Congratulations Joe Biden.

November 6.8% inflation based on certain CPI products.

Biden's response: "That was four or five days ago!".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation